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The Cy Young Award Watch-v2012.NL

batmagadanleadoff

By batmagadanleadoff
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batmagadanleadoff

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September 22, 2012, 11:05 am
Mets� Knuckleballer Has an Honor at His Fingertips
By TYLER KEPNER

Terry Collins, the Mets� manager, sat gloomily at a news conference after his team lost to Philadelphia on Monday. His staff ace, R. A. Dickey, had lost despite allowing only two earned runs in seven innings. The Mets badly want Dickey to reach 20 victories, the magic threshold for a starting pitcher.

�You feel for him because all�s he�s done is give himself a chance to win baseball games,� Collins said. �We�ll go back at the end of the year and re-count the number of games he didn�t get a decision, or didn�t get a win. Hopefully, it doesn�t come back to bite him too bad.�

Collins should not worry. By now, the writers who vote for the Cy Young Award understand that won-loss record, while useful for telling the story of how frustrating or rewarding a season has been, is not vital to judging who has pitched best.

Three of the last six Cy Young Awards were given to pitchers with no more than 16 victories � Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke in 2009, and Felix Hernandez in 2010.

Last season�s winners were easy: Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw both topped 20 wins while leading their leagues in strikeouts and earned run average. Both were unanimous selections.

This season�s races are much tighter, and a crowded field of starters could allow a reliever to emerge. Atlanta�s Craig Kimbrel, who had 38 saves in 41 chances, with 105 strikeouts in 571/3 innings entering Saturday, would seem to have the best chance among closers.

But only one reliever has captured the award in the last 19 years, and that pitcher � Eric Gagne of the Los Angeles Dodgers, in 2003 � had to go 55 for 55 in save chances to do it. Advanced metrics value starters much more than relievers, because starters pitch so many more innings.

Innings should be important to the Cy Young discussion. Pitching deep in games not only helps rest the bullpen, but projects a sense of calm to the rest of the team: It�s O.K., I�ve got this. Durability ought to count for a lot.

Take Gio Gonzalez, who was 19-8 for the Washington Nationals. The record was exceptional, and his 2.95 E.R.A. was also sharp. But Gonzalez did not record an out in the eighth inning until Aug. 3. The Giants� Matt Cain had done that 11 times, and Madison Bumgarner, Dickey, Cole Hamels and Kershaw had done that 10 times.

Of course, a pitcher can labor for more than seven innings but not necessarily pitch well. So what about high-quality starts � say, starts lasting at least seven innings, with no more than three earned runs? Win or lose, almost every such start is an ace-worthy performance.

Dickey and Kershaw (who is probably done for the season with a hip injury) had made 19 such starts. Cincinnati�s Johnny Cueto has made 17, and Hamels 16. Gonzalez had made only nine. From June 3 through July 19, Gonzalez never even lasted seven innings.

Gonzalez, of course, is headed to the playoffs, where his relatively light workload could make him fresher than other top starters. He could win a World Series ring for his efforts, and that is the ultimate prize for a player.

But the league�s highest individual pitching honor should go to Dickey. He strikes out a lot of hitters, and few reach base. Entering Saturday, he had a National League-best 2.67 E.R.A. and also led in innings, with 212. He has mastered baseball�s most unpredictable pitch, the knuckleball, and made it the most effective pitching weapon in the league.

The American League race may be even closer....


http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/22/mets-knuckleballer-has-an-honor-at-his-fingertips/


Edgy MD FCL Mets

Edgy MD

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Marlins put up a big fat six in the fourth inning. It would take a heckuva collapse for Gio not to get his 20th today.


Edgy MD FCL Mets

Edgy MD

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Bury me. I'm through. I've got nothing left. This shit computer and this shit internet connection has my timing off and and not adjusting. I'm throwing junk up on the screen. JUNK!


duan Prep Ball

duan

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You'd have to think if Clayton Kershaw repeats yesterday's "heroics" he's going to win. Guy, not 100% comes back to try and save team, keeps team in race. America is still land of the free and home of the brave.


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batmagadanleadoff

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Despite all of the enlightened commentary about how Wins aren't nearly the best indicator of a pitcher's worth, nobody's mentioning Kershaw as a candidate. Yet the reigning Cy Young Award winner passed Dickey for the league lead in K's last night, is tied for the league lead in WHIP, has the second best NL ERA, just .02 behind RA, and has a body of work that's as good as anybody's, notwithstanding his low Wins total (12).





Edgy MD FCL Mets

Edgy MD

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Very, very comparable to Dickey. Being purely objective, I'd vote Dickey #1 based on the slight edge in innings, and the shutouts. I also would even consider the number of wins relevant, given they are so equal in every other category.

And if I can't come up with reasonable reasons to go to Dickey, I may have to give up the whole objectivity thing.


metirish First Round Pick

metirish

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batmagadanleadoff wrote:
Despite all of the enlightened commentary about how Wins aren't nearly the best indicator of a pitcher's worth, nobody's mentioning Kershaw as a candidate. Yet the reigning Cy Young Award winner passed Dickey for the league lead in K's last night, is tied for the league lead in WHIP, has the second best NL ERA, just .02 behind RA, and has a body of work that's as good as anybody's, notwithstanding his low Wins total (12).






Keith absolutely dismissed Kershaw from the running based solely on wins..... "12 wins is not getting it done"


I wasn't surprised Mex talked like that.....seems at best dismissive of things like WHIP etc.


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Chad ochoseis

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Among teams currently in the division/WC lead, Kershaw has faced:

Giants - 4
Cardinals - 2
Nats -1
Reds - 1
White Sox - 1

Total - 9

Dickey:

Nats - 4
Braves - 3
Cardinals - 2
Reds - 2
O's - 1
MFYs -1

Total - 13

Story is similar if you look at teams with better than a .500 record. Dickey has had a more difficult schedule than Kershaw this year.


Edgy MD FCL Mets

Edgy MD

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Keith's a smart jock, but a proud jock. He'll examine received wisdom, but only after you force him to.

It would be cool if Gary forced him to more, but Gary can be a suckup with regard to his jock buddies.


Edgy MD FCL Mets

Edgy MD

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Thinking of Saturday's game, I wonder how the candidates compare with regard to their bullpens (a) blowing their leads, and (B) letting their runners score.


Frayed Knot FCL Mets

Frayed Knot

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Edgy DC wrote:
Keith's a smart jock, but a proud jock. He'll examine received wisdom, but only after you force him to.

It would be cool if Gary forced him to more, but Gary can be a suckup with regard to his jock buddies.


Gary has also shown himself to be almost Joe Morgan-esque with regard to those damn new-fangled stats that are always running on his lawn.


Frayed Knot FCL Mets

Frayed Knot

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I don't think that's the case.

First of all I don't know that Ron & Keith are so dismissive of "new stats" so much as they're simply ignorant of them (Keith in particular).
And Gary's statophopia seems to be both long-standing and almost innate. I remember him practically spitting out the words "stats guys" as he denigrated one Sabre-ist viewpoint a few years back. He's also a long-time member of the 'Jeter oozes clutch' crowd, plus will, far too often for my taste, spit out a rather silly stat off the game notes (situational and/or coincidental type stuff) that deserves questioning as opposed to just simple recitation, but he seems far more likely to just let it stand on its own as if the stats' relevance is self-evident.

If anything I actually think he's gotten a bit more open-minded in recent years, just is doing so very slowly.


Edgy MD FCL Mets

Edgy MD

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What really killed me was a guest in the booth on Autism Awareness Day. It was more or less his third trip to the booth, and he was caught up in his austism spiel, and the Mets were in a bunting situation. The guy was comfortable enough that he felt it OK to offer a baseball observation, and he said something along the lines of, "I've done a lot of the reading about bunting and I have to say that I'm compelled by the notion that the outs you give up bunting costs you a lot of runs."

Gary snorted back a "Double plays cost you a lot of runs too." That's true, of course, but his tone wasn't along the lines of "On the other hand...," but rather, "Stick to what you know, Autism Boy."

I'm used to him being more or less genial (and I imagine he is), but it was pretty stunning to see him give the guy the high hat.


Frayed Knot FCL Mets

Frayed Knot

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Also, promoting bunts is not exactly the way to Keith's heart anyway.
And while I'm sure he's not using any Sabremetric studies to bolster his belief, Keith tends to argue against bunts more often than not, particularly early in the game and virtually anytime with a guy who is capable of putting a charge into the ball.
IOW, he's anti-bunt unless the game & personnel make it an advantage rather than merely as a defensive way to stay out of DPs.


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HahnSolo

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Gary lost me with his complete love affair with Orlando Cabrera a couple years ago, gushing on and on about what a "winner" he was.

And to not veer too far off course with this thread, go R.A.!


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