Mets by WPA

[Benjamin Grimm]

That hasn't happened, but I found four games where a three-run homer gave the Mets a one-run win:

08/21/1962 Pittsburgh Pirates W 5-4 9 Marv Throneberry Roy Face Home Run, 3 rbi
06/07/1963 St. Louis Cardinals W 3-2 9 Duke Snider Diomedes Olivo Home Run, 3 rbi
06/14/1980 San Francisco Giants W 7-6 9 Steve Henderson Allen Ripley Home Run, 3 rbi
09/05/1983 Philadelphia Phillies W 6-5 9 George Foster Al Holland Home Run, 3 rbi

[Edgy MD]

Steve Henderson's homerun on June 14, 1980 was good for a .919 WPA, taking. Can any single hit in their history top that? You'd practically need a walk-off grand slam to give the Mets a one-run win: the highest WPA value hit possible.

And do it with two outs.

Regarding Ben's citations.

• 08/21/1962 Pittsburgh Pirates W 5-4 9 Marv Throneberry Roy Face Home Run, 3 rbi
  WPA: 0.909
  
  
  
• 06/07/1963 St. Louis Cardinals W 3-2 9 Duke Snider Diomedes Olivo Home Run, 3 rbi
  WPA: 0.735
  
  
  
• 06/14/1980 San Francisco Giants W 7-6 9 Steve Henderson Allen Ripley Home Run, 3 rbi
  WPA: 0.919
  
  
  
• 09/05/1983 Philadelphia Phillies W 6-5 9 George Foster Al Holland Home Run, 3 rbi
  WPA: 0.800

Steve looks like our winner.

[Ceetar]

postseason logged anywhere? Ventura's Grand Single?

[batmagadanleadoff]

Not all of Marv's Mets records are bad ones. Looks like he has the highest Mets WPA hit for a left-handed batter.

[Lefty Specialist]

I tend to measure a player's relative worth by using MWTFG, or Me Watching The F*#$ing Games.

I find it a reliable predictor. Your mileage, as always, may vary.

[ashie62]

Ceetar wrote: postseason logged anywhere? Ventura's Grand Single?

Really...wouldnt this be an easy #1?

[Ceetar]

Ashie62 wrote: Ceetar wrote: postseason logged anywhere? Ventura's Grand Single? Really...wouldnt this be an easy #1?

nah, I guess bases loaded less than 1 out..

Ventura actually had a negative WPA in that game.

Todd Pratt's walk preceding this was a 29% swing, Ventura's single was actually the fourth event in the game, behind a strike 'em out throw 'em out double play with Greg Maddux at the plate with the bases loaded in the top of the 6th. and then Olerud's home run in the first.

[metsmarathon]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Steve Henderson's homerun on June 14, 1980 was good for a .919 WPA, taking. Can any single hit in their history top that? You'd practically need a walk-off grand slam to give the Mets a one-run win: the highest WPA value hit possible.

you'd need a 2-out, down by three, walk-off grand slam to get hte maximum WPA. bonus points if you find yourself in a low run environment. if runs are easier to come by in a given year, or period, then those 3 runs you're down by are increasingly insurmountable.

[Edgy MD]

He hit it with the game tied, so it increased the Mets win likelihood from 86% to 100%, for a .160 WPA. The game-tying walk to Pratt that preceded that was actually a higher impact play, taking the win likelihood from 55% to 84%, for a .290 WPA.

[Ceetar]

I found a -82% play by the Mets while on defense. *shudder*