K-Rod Traded

[seawolf17]

[idiot wfan caller] I think the two PTBNLs should be Fielder and Braun. [/idiot wfan caller]

[Guest attgig]

It'll be very interesting who these 2 ptbnl's are...and I wonder if they can be higher based on frankie's option vesting or not (probably not, but worth internet speculation).

knowing that their farm system is so thin, I'm somewhat hopeful that at least one of them is in their top 10.....speaking of, fangraphs just recently put up their top 10 prospects for the nl central:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/reviewing-the-top-10-prospect-lists-nl-central/

Milwaukee Brewers 1. Jake Odorizzi, RHP* 2. Mark Rogers, RHP 3. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP* 4. Kyle Heckathorn, RHP 5. Wily Peralta, RHP 6. Cody Scarpetta, RHP 7. Hunter Morris, 1B/OF 8. Jimmy Nelson, RHP 9. Tyler Thornburg, RHP 10. Caleb Gindl, OF Like the Cubs, the Brewers organization saw a number of changes to its Top 10 list thanks to trades that happened during the off-season. I was able to adjust for the Shaun Marcum trade (loss of Brett Lawrie) but the Zack Greinke deal occurred after I posted my list. Rogers ended up as the No. 1 guy in the organization but his season has been pretty bad. I was pretty much the only writer who wasn�t on the Scooter Gennett bandwagon and I�m actually still pretty happy about that. His season has been decent in high-A ball (.284/.323/.376) but he doesn�t hit for power or rack up the steals, whicj leaves him as an all-batting-average guy. He�s more of a utility player for me. Fellow 2010 draftees Nelson and Thornburg have really started to separate themselves. Nelson hasn�t done much in low-A while Thornburg pitched in the Futures Game. I�ve been a big fan of Morris since his prep days and was the only one to place him on the Brewers� Top 10 list. He�s been a little too aggressive at the plate for my liking but he has a solid triple-slash line of .294/.320/.538 and has already tasted double-A.

[smg58]

The PTBNL rule is that the players involved cannot stay in the same league as the one they were playing in. It's an odd rule whose rationale I can't figure out -- among other things, it means that an AL team could send us a major league PTBNL but an NL team can't. I guess we'll find out. K-Rod, like Wagner, will cost the Brewers $3.5M. He'd be a Type A if they offered him arbitration, but he'd be an awfully expensive setup guy. (I'm assuming Axford remains the closer at least until the option is no longer likely to vest.) My guess is we'll get a package like the one we got for Wagner.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

A quick perusal of a Brewers msg board indicates fear that the team could lose Thornberg or Peralta and an assumption they might be likely to lose:

Gamel
Farris
Gindl
Dennis
Merklinger
Katin
Green
Gennett

Of those guys I'd only heard of Mat Gamel, he's been around for awhile and was recently farmed out. Dan Murphy type, decent bat, pretend fielder. I'm sure this is the kind of guy we wind up with anyhow.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

JCL: Comparing Gamel to Murphy might be an insult to Murphy. But, hell, Nelson Cruz was a post-hype guy, too.

Cee: "Two random minor leaguers" are worth a lot more than you seem to value them, even if they're less winning-lotto-ticket and more reach-in-the-grab-bag.

And if you're looking into in-season silver linings-- it's possible that Sandy just put a potential Philly playoff roadblock over the top.

[Edgy MD]

Rodriguez was once somebody's lottery ticket.

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: JCL: Comparing Gamel to Murphy might be an insult to Murphy. But, hell, Nelson Cruz was a post-hype guy, too. Cee: "Two random minor leaguers" are worth a lot more than you seem to value them, even if they're less winning-lotto-ticket and more reach-in-the-grab-bag. And if you're looking into in-season silver linings-- it's possible that Sandy just put a potential Philly playoff roadblock over the top.

I'm not sure how that silver lining works out, are you suggesting the Braves beat out the PHillies and the Brewers take the WC?

It's not so much that I'm dissing the value of those minor leaguers, I'd just like to know who they are, but I guess logistically might as well watch a crop of 10 or so and pick the best two a month or two down the road.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Send us your angry, live-armed, undervalued commodities, yearning to bounce back from terrible rookie-ball seasons.

Hell, send us five. We'll make room.

[ashie62]

This deal was addition by subtraction. A monetary mathematical transaction.

[Vic Sage]

Ceetar wrote: This is pure speculation? Who knows how thin the market was?

Alderson knew, that's who. And he paid $5m just to get out from under that $17.5m option. So that tells you all you need to know about the thinness of the market.

Look, no team in its right mind is going to take FRod on as a closer and be subject to that option... it's paralyzing, even for big market clubs. So that leaves a market of playoff-contending teams that HAVE a closer, who were looking for setup guy who they could use as a part-time closer, at most. And such teams would also have to have avoided F-Rod's 10-team "no-trade" list.

Could've just released him too. Maybe paying 3.5 next year is worse than paying 5million this year (or really, paying nothing this year, since they were going to pay him that anyway) or maybe it's not.

If we released him, it's my understanding (and correct me if i'm wrong here) that the team picking him up would only be obligated for the MLB minimum per year. The Mets would be liable for the ENTIRE contract, not just the $5m this year, and the $3.5m next year. So we'd still be on the hook for $17.5m in 2012 (less MLB minimum) if his option vested with another team. So, NO, releasing him was NOT a very good alternative.

And this is without getting into 'mucking with his playing time' issues, which would've been really easy if the Mets fell out of it. Then you're paying 3.5 for some draft picks.

And your also getting into litigation with the player's union, which the Mets may have won, or may not have.

I'm not unhappy with the move, I just expected to get more than two random minor leaguers sometime in the future. Something more than a pure salary dump in early July.

Then perhaps your expectations were out of line (quel supris!). With that 2012 contract albatross hanging around his neck, Frankie was never going to get back anything more than we got. I have confidence in Alderson to maximize our assets; he's not leaving anything on the table. But he just couldn't risk keeping KRod, and every other team in MLB knew it.

Edited July 13, 2011 by Guest

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Ceetar wrote: I'm not sure how that silver lining works out, are you suggesting the Braves beat out the PHillies and the Brewers take the WC?

That's a current first-place Quaffmaking Crew you're talking about, sir. (Tied with the one run by the Souse.)

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Ceetar wrote: I'm not sure how that silver lining works out, are you suggesting the Braves beat out the PHillies and the Brewers take the WC? That's a current first-place Quaffmaking Crew you're talking about, sir. (Tied with the one run by the Souse.)

Yes, I'm not sure how the Brewers getting better is a anti-Phillies move? Certainly doesn't make the Mets or Braves more likely to beat them.



So the move is rated on the assumption that we trust Sandy Alderson blindly? Supposedly there were other, similar, offers or bites. I'm not going to make assumptions about how desperate Sandy was or what other possibilities were out there. I expect him to make this team better, and while jettisoning salary certainly raises the percentages he can do that next year, it's not quite next year is it?

Perhaps there is more value on players to be named later, there probably is, but I don't think it was unreasonable to expect an actual player to be named now. That's how most trades go. I'm sure there will be additions to match this subtraction, because regardless of what fans think, it's too early for the _organization_ to write the season off.

Maybe an analogy? I know I have to sell my old car to get a new car, but it's the new car that's exciting, not selling the old car that's done me well or even the window shopping for the new one.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Ceetar wrote: Yes, I'm not sure how the Brewers getting better is a anti-Phillies move? Certainly doesn't make the Mets or Braves more likely to beat them.

Isn't it obvious? The implication is that it makes the Brewers more likely to beat the Phillies in a playoff series, thereby keeping them from the World Series.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: Yes, I'm not sure how the Brewers getting better is a anti-Phillies move? Certainly doesn't make the Mets or Braves more likely to beat them.

It makes the Brewers more likely to beat them.

Ceetar wrote: So the move is rated on the assumption that we trust Sandy Alderson blindly?

No, it's rated on the assumption that Rodriguez was a white elephant of a commodity. A black white elephant. His salary was being wasted on him and we need it for wiser uses, like Jose Reyes.

Ceetar wrote: Supposedly there were other, similar, offers or bites. I'm not going to make assumptions about how desperate Sandy was or what other possibilities were out there.

Do you distrust him blindly?

Ceetar wrote: I expect him to make this team better, and while jettisoning salary certainly raises the percentages he can do that next year, it's not quite next year is it?

It's a tough call to weight today against tomorrow. But I think the Mets are more or less fine in the pen except when they're not. That's what I thought last week.

Ceetar wrote: Perhaps there is more value on players to be named later, there probably is...

There is.

Ceetar wrote: ...but I don't think it was unreasonable to expect an actual player to be named now.

I do. Maybe the better package is the one you wait on.

Ceetar wrote: That's how most trades go.

Some don't. I don't know how that makes this bad.

Ceetar wrote: I'm sure there will be additions to match this subtraction...

$$$!

Ceetar wrote: ...because regardless of what fans think, it's too early for the _organization_ to write the season off.

I don't know which fans you mean, but this isn't a write-off.

Ceetar wrote: Maybe an analogy? I know I have to sell my old car to get a new car, but it's the new car that's exciting, not selling the old car that's done me well or even the window shopping for the new one.

If my old car was costing me $653,846 every month, but wasn't getting me anywhere better or faster than a few other cars in my garage, I'd be pleased as punch that anybody gave me anything, because those payments are now back in my pocket and I can go shopping for more reasonably priced stuff. AWESOME!

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Ceetar wrote: Yes, I'm not sure how the Brewers getting better is a anti-Phillies move? Certainly doesn't make the Mets or Braves more likely to beat them. Isn't it obvious? The implication is that it makes the Brewers more likely to beat the Phillies in a playoff series, thereby keeping them from the World Series.

Oh, guess I wasn't giving anyone an automatic bid yet. I wouldn't put the Phillies as favorites as it is anyway as it is, but can't hurt.

[Ceetar]

Edgy, you missed my point. I just mean that while I get that this is a good thing, and I'm glad that they did it, I don't get exciting for 'possibilities'.

I don't want to root for anyone to get traded, or celebrate it, even Frankie. 99.9% of my enjoyment comes from the actual team on the field, which is worse now, even if slightly. I know that there is now a somewhat higher percentage that my enjoyment will be heightened sometime in the future, but that doesn't mean I'm going to look at the trade today and feel good about it. That's just now how I enjoy baseball.

[Vic Sage]

Yes, I'm not sure how the Brewers getting better is a anti-Phillies move? Certainly doesn't make the Mets or Braves more likely to beat them.

This ain't that complicated. Brewers better = Brewers more likely to beat Phillies in NL playoffs. Nothing short of a plane crash is keeping the Phils out of the playoffs altogether.

So the move is rated on the assumption that we trust Sandy Alderson blindly? Supposedly there were other, similar, offers or bites. I'm not going to make assumptions about how desperate Sandy was or what other possibilities were out there.

Not blindly; based on his history of success based on rationality. And yes, you are implicitly making assumptions about Sandy's desperation and other possiblities available when your "expectations" are not met. If there were other "similar" offers, then this deal was as good as the next one, no?

I expect him to make this team better, and while jettisoning salary certainly raises the percentages he can do that next year, it's not quite next year is it?

yeah, it is. You just don't realize it yet. We're a .500 team at the break, 3rd in our division behind the 2 best teams in the league, and 5th in the WC. Murphy and Turner have done an admirable job of picking up the slack for Davis and Wright, and Young/Gee have produced nearly as well as Santana would have been expected to at this point, given age/degree of decline. But Turner's injury has slowed him significantly, Gee has turned back into a pumpkin, Bay has shown flashes but is basically running in place, Pelfrey is a case study in mediocrity, and Reyes, our MVP, has yet another leg injury.

It's Alderson's job not to be fooled by this fun bunch of overachievers and to look out for the long-term health of the franchise.

Perhaps there is more value on players to be named later, there probably is, but I don't think it was unreasonable to expect an actual player to be named now. That's how most trades go. I'm sure there will be additions to match this subtraction, because regardless of what fans think, it's too early for the _organization_ to write the season off.

If we can get better players later, then i'm happy to wait, and i'm glad "fan expectation" isn't the criteria being used for the deal. And replacing K-Rod with a group effort of Izzy/Parnell/Beato isn't quite the same as "writing the season off", now is it? Of course, you can sing that song once they deal Beltran (which they will do any day now), and i for one have no problem with them writing off a .500 team to set themselves up for the future. That would, at least, indicate a plan for the future... which would be a wonderful change of pace for this franchise.

Maybe an analogy? I know I have to sell my old car to get a new car, but it's the new car that's exciting, not selling the old car that's done me well or even the window shopping for the new one.

If the old car has a ticking time bomb strapped to the hood, maybe you'd be more excited about its departure rather than its trade-in value.

[Ceetar]

sorry Vic, i stopped reading after "yes it is next year".

talk to you next year then, i'm gonna watch baseball.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I don' t know if I should be happy about the K-Rod trade. How's this helping to get rid of the Wilpons?

[Vic Sage]

Ceetar wrote: sorry Vic, i stopped reading after "yes it is next year". talk to you next year then, i'm gonna watch baseball.

I'm going to watch baseball, too, because unlike you i don't have to delude myself with pennant hopes in order to enjoy watching a Mets game.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: Edgy, you missed my point.

I thought I responded to each one of your points.

Ceetar wrote: I just mean that while I get that this is a good thing, and I'm glad that they did it, I don't get exciting for 'possibilities'.

You seem to be complaining about it, and speculating about better options that Alderson passed on, and lamenting the loss and the lack of birds in hand.

Ceetar wrote: I don't want to root for anyone to get traded...

Me.

Ceetar wrote: or celebrate it

Me.

Ceetar wrote: even Frankie.

Even Hebner!

Ceetar wrote: 99.9% of my enjoyment comes from the actual team on the field

Seriously, is this me posting?

Ceetar wrote: which is worse now, even if slightly.

That's debatable, but I get your point. But it would be arguably worse if anybody is traded with nobody immediately added to the team. GMs have to step back and make reasonable choices about the present and the future. We all understand this, no?

Ceetar wrote: I know that there is now a somewhat higher percentage that my enjoyment will be heightened sometime in the future, but that doesn't mean I'm going to look at the trade today and feel good about it. That's just now how I enjoy baseball.

Me neither. But that's the emotional argument. You're actually all over arguing not the immediate emotional downside, but the rational one. And it's not there.

Look, I want trading a player without his permission to be outlawed. But that doesn't mean that, in a world where trading does exist, this is a bad one.

Hey, maybe Jose Reyes is signed by this time tomorrow. The Mets owners started this season in an existential crisis. That they've been able to stay out of the offseason market, survive critical injuries, put a .500 team (or better?) on the field, shed crucial contracts, improved at the minor league level, barely retained control of the team, and put themselves back in the position where re-signing both Reyes and Wright is within the realm of reasonable hope? Minor fucking miracle.

So far.

[soupcan]

Vic Sage wrote: If we can get better players later, then i'm happy to wait, and i'm glad "fan expectation" isn't the criteria being used for the deal. And replacing K-Rod with a group effort of Izzy/Parnell/Beato isn't quite the same as "writing the season off", now is it? Of course, you can sing that song once they deal Beltran (which they will do any day now), and i for one have no problem with them writing off a .500 team to set themselves up for the future. That would, at least, indicate a plan for the future... which would be a wonderful change of pace for this franchise.

And I for two have no problem with this either. Especially if it means I get 5-7 more years of number 7.

Also - before the emergence of Paplebon in Boston, didn't Bill James do some sort of analysis and conclude that 'closer by committee' was equally successful to an actual closer? I do recall that the Red Sox tried it with poor results but I'd be curious to see how that strategy plays out with the Mets knowing that their is some statistcal back-up for it.

[Ceetar]

Maybe I'm all over the place. But I've felt all season that the impending doom of a firesale and losing Reyes (and Wright and the paint needed to paint "METS" behind home plate) was massively overstated.

Maybe I should just pretend their is a direct relationship between trading K-Rod and resigning Reyes and focus on that.

And this is K-Rod, who's just a reliever. I don't actually care that he's gone. Beltran's gonna hurt if it really does come to fruitition like seems inevitable.

[Edgy MD]

I agree Beltran will hurt more, but he's got no contract for next year that we need to escape. So the pressure to shed him isn't nearly as acute, and there's no harm in waiting a week or two to see how things shake out. And it won't kill us to keep him.

I don't think you need to pretend that there's a relationship between shedding Rodriguez and signing Reyes. There is.

[Guest attgig]

http://twitter.com/#%21/Buster_ESPN/status/91175293552832512
Sources: Right now, six and perhaps as many as seven teams indicating real interest in Carlos Beltran.

if there really that many teams interested, maybe the return will make the pain more bearable.

[Vic Sage]

Edgy DC wrote: I agree Beltran will hurt more, but he's got no contract for next year that we need to escape. So the pressure to shed him isn't nearly as acute, and there's no harm in waiting a week or two to see how things shake out. And it won't kill us to keep him. I don't think you need to pretend that there's a relationship between shedding Rodriguez and signing Reyes. There is.

Agreed, mostly. But while it won't "kill us" to keep Beltran, there are "opportunity costs" involved in retaining him. If there are real prospects out there for the getting in the next few weeks, Alderson is obliged to maximize the team's assets. Holding onto Beltran to keep the fans with Ceetardian delusions happy (if there is no plan to resign him, with no ability to get draft picks if we don't) is exactly the kind of Wilponian decision-making i hope and expect Alderson to avoid.

[soupcan]

This Beltran thing sort of puzzles me.

Why trade him? Will whatever they get back be that much better than the draft pick they'll get for compensation?

Is a team really going to give up something substantial for him for only half a season?

OE: Vic are you saying the Mets won't get draft picks if they don't sign him?

[batmagadanleadoff]

This Beltran thing sort of puzzles me.... OE: Vic are you saying the Mets won't get draft picks if they don't sign him?

I believe that the Mets agreed not to offer Beltran arbitration at the end of his current contract, thus making it impossible for the Mets to receive compensatory draft picks should Beltran file for free agency and sign with another team.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Vic Sage wrote: ... i don't have to delude myself with pennant hopes in order to enjoy watching a Mets game.

Wow. About as profound as anything I've ever read here.

[soupcan]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: I believe that the Mets agreed not to offer Beltran arbitration at the end of his current contract, thus making it impossible for the Mets to receive compensatory draft picks should Beltran file for free agency and sign with another team.

Ah ha!

Well then - trade away Mr. Alderson, trade away!