Dead Tradeline 2011

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I don't know what Paddy Power says but I'd bet Sandy does a lot of trading in July.

Rodriguez, Beltran, Reyes, Bay are the obvious candidates but then you got a second class of "reliable veterans that all contenders could use" (Capuano, Dickey, Paulino, Hairston, Isringhausen, Byrdak).

I wonder what the record for most Mets traded in July is.

[Ceetar]

I suspect we might see a new bench guy and a new reliever. I don't know if there are any starters for him to pick up though.

[TransMonk]

I don't see how Bay is going anywhere.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Me neither. Bay is certainly someone the Mets would like to trade, but I can't imagine they'd find any takers.

I think Rodriguez is the most likely to go, with Beltran a close second.

My hunch is that they don't trade Jose, hoping to sign him during the Piazza Period.

Izzy, Dickey, and Cappy all seem pretty tradeable too. And Pelfrey is also a possibility.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Seems to me that it's about the time that Bay transitions to a Veteran Slugger role a la Dave Justice or Jeff Conine or whatever in their final year(s).

I know the $$ is going to be an issue, but perhaps the contract comes along in a deal. I could see a team like the MFYs using Bay as a pinch hitter in a World Series game.

[metirish]

my man in Ireland


Staff going over the odds

with the team nearly ten out in the division and nearly six games out and seven teams behind in the WC the Mets should be sellers

Odds on current roster of players getting traded

PITCHERS

Manny Acosta - 4/1 - Manny who is the response from a lot of people
Pedro Beato - 50/1 - not going anywhere
Tim Byrdak - 2/1 - lefties are always hot property in the bookies shop
Chris Capuano - 5/1 tough call what with his nagging injuries , gets through his next two starts odds cut dramatically
D.J. Carrasco - 3/1 - look for him on a west coast team
R.A. Dickey - 10/1 - hard to see him going really , especially as it was this front office that gave him the contract.
Dillon Gee - 50/1 - nowhere baby
Jason Isringhausen - 1/2 , if he stays healthy he's gone
Jon Niese - 50/1 nowhere baby
Bobby Parnell - 30/1 - not going
Mike Pelfrey - 7/1 could go easily with the right offer
Francisco Rodriguez - 1/2 he wants to go , front office wants him to go, gone baby gone

CATCHERS

Ronny Paulino - 2/1 - see ya.....in the Bronx?
Josh Thole - 100/1

INFIELDERS

Daniel Murphy - 100/1 - who'd take him?
Jose Reyes - 3/1 generous odds , a lot of money in from Asia(Wilpon?)
Ruben Tejada - 100/1 -
Justin Turner - 100/1

OUTFIELDERS

Jason Bay - 50/1 unless Mets pay most of his salary he's going nowhere just like his power swing.
Carlos Beltran - 2/1 - a lot of teams would want him
Lucas Duda - 100/1 - odds he'll be in Buffalo - 1/2
Scott Hairston - 2/1 - I'm sure someone will take him
Willie Harris - 5/1 not sure anyone will take him
Angel Pagan - 50/1 -
Jason Pridie - 50/1

[Guest Edgy DC]

22 cranes on Pelfrey. His money going forward could be an obstacle to the Reyes Fund.

[TransMonk]

I'd put money on Pelfrey as well.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I got 50 Cranes on Capuano at those odds.

[metirish]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I got 50 Cranes on Capuano at those odds.

this is how we reel you in you know?

[Ceetar]

doubt Pelfrey gets traded. I think pitching of his talent is in demand. And the Mets need more pitching, not less. They'll end up spending at least what they got for him, in either prospects or money, trying to replace him.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Just get your money on the table.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Do we have a budget on how many cranes we can bet?

I'll assume it's 100.

I'll put 40 on Frankie, 40 on Beltran, 10 on Dickey and 10 on Capuano.

[metirish]

bookie outside Citi Field


revised Odds

some heavy money coming in from the Jersey area

Mike Pelfrey - 5/1

[metirish]

proposed new sign to replace Pepsi at Citi Field

Trifecta odds

Beltran to the yankees
Reyes to the Reds
Izzy to the Brewers

80/1 - for two days only

Beltran
Reyes
Izzy - all to stay with the Mets

50/1 - two days only

through the weekend you can choose whatever trifecta you wish and get 30/1 odds

[bmfc1]

FLOYD: Takin' bets today, Red?
RED: (pulls notepad and pencil)
Bear Catholic? Pope shit in the woods?
Smokes or coin, bettor's choice.
FLOYD: Smokes. Put me down for two.
RED: High roller. Who's your horse?

To be traded (with a budget of 100): Capuano (25), Isringhausen (25), Beltran (35), Hairston (5)... and one long shot, Pagan (10).

[TransMonk]

Ceetar wrote: doubt Pelfrey gets traded. I think pitching of his talent is in demand. And the Mets need more pitching, not less. They'll end up spending at least what they got for him, in either prospects or money, trying to replace him.

What if we get a league minimum back-end starter (with a few years left before free agency) back in a deal for Rodriguez or Beltran?

Statistically speaking, Pelfrey is the worst horse in our stable right now. I think he's shown exactly what he will continue to be: a guy who is going to win about 12 games with an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50. $4M-$5M is a lot to pay a guy that puts up those type of numbers.

Pelfrey is a nice guy who has stayed healthy...but he is what he is at this point.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yeah, I don't want the Mets to trade anybubby, but I think Pelfrey is replaceable to a modestly clever team.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I walk around thinking Pelfrey is an adjustment or two away from domination. Big strong healthy guy, I know the results aren't there but I dunno, I feel like we wouldn't get much back for him and could lose that trade big-time.

[Ceetar]

TransMonk wrote: Ceetar wrote: doubt Pelfrey gets traded. I think pitching of his talent is in demand. And the Mets need more pitching, not less. They'll end up spending at least what they got for him, in either prospects or money, trying to replace him. What if we get a league minimum back-end starter (with a few years left before free agency) back in a deal for Rodriguez or Beltran?

How many guys are consistantly back end starters? That aren't a coin flip away from being back-end AAA starters? That teams are actually willing to trade?

I think Pelfrey's an above average pitcher who will occasionally struggle but works hard and has the talent to recover and make adjustments. I'm sure the right deal may be out there if Sandy's willing to roll the dice, but what you're basically saying is you can probably get somewhat of a Pelf equivilency in a deal for Frankie or Beltran (I'm not convinced Beltran will be traded all now, given Duda/F-Mart/etc. Too much of an offensive dropoff).

I'd just as soon keep Pelfrey in that regard..Devil you know.. Mets would _still_ probably need another pitcher. At least.

I mean, Pelfrey's bWAR was 2.9, 0, 2.4 and stands at .5 right now. If we assume he'll have just a slightly better second half than first, he'll probably get to around 1.5 this year. Only about 120 pitchers did better than that last year, including relievers. I don't think $5, or $12/2 is a lot for a guy like that.

[TransMonk]

I walk around thinking Pelfrey is an adjustment or two away from domination.

I've been thinking this for 4 years now. What's the definition of insanity?

He's pitched well at times, but I just can't expect dominance from him anymore and his price tag is not in line with rebuilding for the stats he is most likely to give us going forward. Maybe a change of scenery turns him into a top of the line starter, but I think we've seen what he's got to give.

OE: Ceetar disagrees with me (or maybe I disagree with him)...and honestly, I'm not trying to turn this into a Pelfrey sucks thread. I just see it as an opportunity to cut salary without giving up too much on the stat line.

[metirish]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I walk around thinking Pelfrey is an adjustment or two away from domination. Big strong healthy guy, I know the results aren't there but I dunno, I feel like we wouldn't get much back for him and could lose that trade big-time.

This is exactly what I find so frustrating with pelfrey, and in five years we could be saying the same thing.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Do we have a budget on how many cranes we can bet? I'll assume it's 100. I'll put 40 on Frankie, 40 on Beltran, 10 on Dickey and 10 on Capuano.

Grimm bet 40 to win 20 on Frankie. He knows somethin' we don't know about Dickey & Carp!

Me, I just made out at the craps table and had three bourbon/rocks, so I'm calling Paddy Power & betting 75 cranes on Daniel Murphy, super-sub to a hard-up contender, and my leftover 25 on Jason Bay and a suitcase full of ca$h back to Boston!

Why yes, darlin', I will take another Makers on the rocks...

[soupcan]

TransMonk wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I walk around thinking Pelfrey is an adjustment or two away from domination. I've been thinking this for 4 years now. What's the definition of insanity?

Yup - I'm here too.

At 14 I thought Pete Falcone was worth hanging on to too.

[seawolf17]

How about Bay (11:$16M, 12:$16M, 13:$16M, 14:$17M club option/$3M buyout) and Pelfrey to the Yankees for Burnett (11:$16.5M, 12:$16.5M, 13:$16.5M), Romine (the catcher), and one of the Trenton pitchers (Betances or Banuelos)?

[Ceetar]

seawolf17 wrote: How about Bay (11:$16M, 12:$16M, 13:$16M, 14:$17M club option/$3M buyout) and Pelfrey to the Yankees for Burnett (11:$16.5M, 12:$16.5M, 13:$16.5M), Romine (the catcher), and one of the Trenton pitchers (Betances or Banuelos)?

we just got rid of Perez.

no. That's a horrible contract, for about as much WAR as Frankie, who only has one year.

Hughes instead of Burnett? no, I'd rather Pelfrey than Hughes anyway.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I see where seawolf is going. Bay is in fact tradeable, but you have to get another awful contract back in order to deal him.

Conceivably, the Mets could do something with Bay like the Astros did with Derek Bell: they told the Mets, if you want Mike Hampton, you have to take Derek Bell.

The difference is that the Mets don't have a Mike Hampton to trade, and Jason Bay has 2.5 years remaining on his contract, where Bell only had one. So to make something like that work, Sandy would have to be very very creative. I doubt it could happen, but Sandy may be able to come up with the magic combination.

[metirish]

In theory iT might work like this.....

Sandy - " if you really want Manny fucking Acosta you need to take Bay from us, that's it OK?"

[HahnSolo]

Has Frankie told teams he'd waive the vesting option or something that I missed? Otherwise what team is going to make a trade for him (I don't believe a deal with the Yankees is in the cards) with $17 mil staring them in the face for next year?

[metirish]

HahnSolo wrote: Has Frankie told teams he'd waive the vesting option or something that I missed? Otherwise what team is going to make a trade for him (I don't believe a deal with the Yankees is in the cards) with $17 mil staring them in the face for next year?

if he is a setup guy then it wouldn't vest right?