MLB Draft 2011

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

June 6 isn't that far away, is it?

Let's open with an in-depth Adam Rubin i'view with Mr. Paul DePodesta, [crossout]our cyborg savior[/crossout] a smart man who should be able to help us draft well, and who pledges to change the organization culture regarding "slot money."

�I think we plan to be aggressive,� DePodesta said. �There does get to the point where there are diminishing returns on amateur players, because there are only so many big leaguers out there who are currently amateurs. It doesn�t necessarily make sense to go completely overboard. But I think where it makes sense and we pick our spots, we plan to be aggressive. That was our approach coming in. There�s nothing that�s happened between now and then that�s changed.� As for the slotting principle in general, DePodesta said: �It�s sort of a difficult spot. Certainly you want to be good citizens. At the same time, if other people are not playing that role and they�re getting an edge on you competitively because of that, it becomes a difficult choice as to what you think you should do. Our mission at this point is to do everything we can to help the Mets.�

Keith Law's dartboard identifies potential Mets draft picks at No. 13 as LSU outfielder Mikie Mahtook, UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer, Texas right-hander Taylor Jungmann and Columbia, S.C., high school right-hander Taylor Guerrieri.

My early favorite? I like-a the tools/versatility/Ming-the-Merciless sound of Hawaiian/Cape Cod standout infielder/outfielder Kolton Wong.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Let's be clear. There's nothing good-citizeny about salary-fixing, unless you believe the civis is confined to 30 old rich guys.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Baseball America in an early projection has the Mets going with Taylor Jungman, but I'm not big on Taylors (or Tylers). http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-dish/2011/2611619.html

We could use some Colton Wong. And I do like the sound of this George Springer guy. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/03/draft-prospect-qa-george-springer.html

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Yeah, you and the world and-- most likely-- the top 12 teams picking. If he drops, then great... but I dunthinkthassgonhappen.

Jackie Bradley, Jr., however, might still be around. (And he was a Hyannis Met in the CCL. Fate speaks through wooden bats!) I like the all-around package and polish, despite the fact that he just hurt his wrist and the fact that his name makes me think of this.

[seawolf17]

Let's keep an eye on pitcher Nick Tropeano of YOUR Stony Brook Seawolves, who's 8-1, 1.06 in nine starts. In 59 2/3 innings, he's allowed 35 hits (31 singles, four doubles), walked twelve and struck out 78.

[Guest Edgy DC]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Baseball America in an early projection has the Mets going with Taylor Jungman, but I'm not big on Taylors (or Tylers).

Like there's a single workable first name in LWFS's post at all.

What soap opera were they watching 18 years ago?

[Frayed Knot]

The word on this draft from even before last year's draft was over was this figures to be one of the deepest fields ever and that opinion hasn't changed a bit as the date draws nearer.
UCLA pitcher Gerritt Cole (who opted not to sign with the Yanx when they made him #28 overall out of HS 3 years ago) and Rice U 3B Anthony Rendon are widely expected to go 1-2 or 2-1
After that is where the speculation starts. The good part about it being a deep draft is the idea that both the 13th pick and the 44th pick (thank you Pedro Feliciano) could yield much better players than what you'd normally expect out of those slots.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

The depth lends a different patina to the usual draft-underlying question. In a river-deep draft, should a selecting team lean more to the high-ceiling side or more to the high-polish side? If you're toting 2-3 picks in the top 50, do you swing for the fences with one-- prep arm, or tools-jump-off-the-page HS OF, say-- and Ike/Havens it with the others?

[Frayed Knot]

No matter what the field looks like I think you always want to go with the best available. A deeper draft means there should be less of a reason to "overpay" high up, but that was never really the Mets' problem in the first place. Where they've skimped in the past was in not taking a chance in the later rounds either on a HS kid oozing with potential but a long way from polished, or on the college kid with options like another year remaining or a football option that he can parlay into a bigger bonus.

Bottom line is none of this should affect the #13 pick and probably not the 44th either. Like Podesta said in that link, over-spending isn't something you do just to do it but also something you shouldn't be afraid to do if you see an opportunity that could pay off in the long run.


The interesting team this year should be Tampa who don't have a pick in the top 23 but then have a stunning 12 picks in the next 65

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: No matter what the field looks like I think you always want to go with the best available. A deeper draft means there should be less of a reason to "overpay" high up, but that was never really the Mets' problem in the first place. Where they've skimped in the past was in not taking a chance in the later rounds either on a HS kid oozing with potential but a long way from polished, or on the college kid with options like another year remaining or a football option that he can parlay into a bigger bonus. Bottom line is none of this should affect the #13 pick and probably not the 44th either. Like Podesta said in that link, over-spending isn't something you do just to do it but also something you shouldn't be afraid to do if you see an opportunity that could pay off in the long run. The interesting team this year should be Tampa who don't have a pick in the top 23 but then have a stunning 12 picks in the next 65

Presumably they'll be a good team to waotch in coming years as those 12 picks can become trade bait and rule 5 fodder that doesn't fit on the roster.

[Guest Edgy DC]

The Mets are going to rule the planet in coming years.

Coming weeks even.

[Frayed Knot]

Good run-down of top draft prospects for next month with thumb-nail sketches of their pros and cons from Kevin Goldstein at BP.

Mets choose 13th (and then 44th) this year.
Note that he's not selling that list as a draft prediction but rather just a subjective list of ranked talent. Risk, signability issues, clubs needs/individual philosophies, or just plain differences of opinion mixed with late-season surges, slumps, or injuries are all going to factor into the exact order of picks.
Even here the two players who have spent virtually the entirety of the last 11 months as presumed picks 1 & 1A (Rendon & Cole) are now listed 2nd and 4th due to a variety of factors.

[Frayed Knot]

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo projects Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky, as the Mets projected 1st round pick, adding that; "the parallels to [last year's #1 pick] Matt Harvey ... are almost uncanny. That one's worked out so far, so why not go down that path again?"

Goldstein's description [he has him ranked 14th overall] sees him as a high risk/reward type:
Pros: If you see Meyer on the right day, he looks like the best college pitcher in the country, with a mid-90s fastball that reaches 98 and a plus-plus slider that is nearly impossible to hit because of the tilt on the pitch and the angles created by his 6-foot-9 frame.
Cons: If you see Meyer on a bad day, you might not take him in the first two rounds. He's disturbingly inconsistent and has a lot of trouble repeating his complex delivery, leading to wild fluctuations in his control and the quality of his slider. One scout summed him up best by saying, �He's either a number one, a shutdown closer, or doesn't get out of Double-A.�

[batmagadanleadoff]

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo projects Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky, as the Mets projected 1st round pick, adding that; "the parallels to [last year's #1 pick] Matt Harvey ... are almost uncanny. That one's worked out so far, so why not go down that path again?" Goldstein's description [he has him ranked 14th overall] sees him as a high risk/reward type: Pros: If you see Meyer on the right day, he looks like the best college pitcher in the country, with a mid-90s fastball that reaches 98 and a plus-plus slider that is nearly impossible to hit because of the tilt on the pitch and the angles created by his 6-foot-9 frame. Cons: If you see Meyer on a bad day, you might not take him in the first two rounds. He's disturbingly inconsistent and has a lot of trouble repeating his complex delivery, leading to wild fluctuations in his control and the quality of his slider. One scout summed him up best by saying, �He's either a number one, a shutdown closer, or doesn't get out of Double-A.�

Are you sure that's not Mike Pelfrey's old scouting report? And whatever happened to Pelf's 98 MPH college heater?

[ashie62]

Or Philip Humber.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Humber's one of the hottest pitchers in the AL right now. Besides, his out pitch was always a curve, wasn't it?

[Frayed Knot]

I don't remember reports on Pelfrey talking about 98 (unless it was his body temperature) and they definitely were not on Humber.
Besides, there's a difference between touching 98 (as these reports often say) and throwing constantly at that speed ("sitting at" in scout-speak).

If the larger point is that reports on these guys are always glowing at this point ... well then you're right. After all, if scouts and evaluators didn't like them then they wouldn't be being talked about in the front half of the first round. And do remember that - even from the first round - the picks who will fail to spend even one day in the majors will outnumber those who'll become stars.

The good news is that this is being talked about as an exceptionally deep draft (particularly in pitching) so the 13th pick could have the talent of a mid-top 10 in other years. The trick, of course, is to bet on the right one.

[ashie62]

There is talk of Jackie Bradley Jr. falling into the Mets hands in the first round next month. Plays for the South Carolina Gamecocks and this OF was named the most outstanding player in the 2010 College World Series.

5'10 175 lbs. Bats Left Throws Right.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

He'd presumably be a high-polish, good-not-great-ceiling kinda guy.

Only a little riskier, thanks to a (power-sapping?) recent wrist injury knocking him out for a month.

[ashie62]

Unfair to Bradley, but he reminds me of Cameron Maybin & B.J. Upton, both duds.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Leaving aside the notion that we should all fail so gloriously as B.J. Upton, who in the draft reminds you of good players?

[seawolf17]

YOUR Stony Brook Seawolves (41-10, 22-2) play for the America East championship this week. Could be a very wolfy MLB draft this year, methinks:

Nick Tropeano -- 11-1, 1.91 in 13 starts. 85 IP, 57 H (.189 BA), 21 BB, 107 K
Tyler Johnson -- 9-2, 1.66 in 12 starts. 70 2/3 IP, 56 H (.220 BA - 11 doubles, the rest singles), 15 BB, 56 K
Brandon McNitt -- 7-2, 1.73 in 9 starts. 73 IP, 61 H -- also has three saves

[Vic Sage]

go [crossout:20bvasf5]Patriots[/crossout:20bvasf5]... um, Seawolves!

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Most [crossout]caffeine-addled, pointless exercises in whistling-in-the-dark[/crossout] mock drafts I've seen seem to have the Mets going with one of the high-ceiling power arms that fall to their slot.

Gammons goes another way: on-base-y UNC shortstop Levi Michael.

Toby Hyde gives a capsule summary here:

Typos aside, the switch-hitting Michael owns a .311/.461/.464 line with 12 doubles, three triples, and four home runs in 54 games as a 20-year old this spring after dealing with a minor ankle injury. He�s also drawn 45 walks and been hit by 12 pitches while striking out just 32 times. Obviously, he has a tremendous plate eye and some doubles power. Remember too when looking at college hitting lines now, that colleges have switched to a new metal bat which is supposed to be dead, and play much more like wood. He graduated high school a semester early to enroll at UNC where he played 2B as a freshman, 3B as a sophomore and SS as a junior. As a result, at 20 now, Michael is younger than most three-year college prospects, and should have more room for growth as a player.

Hmm. HMM.

[batmagadanleadoff]

We don't need a Shortstop.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Scouts sez he profiles as an "offensive-leaning 2B."

Still, college bat with doubles-power (tops) seems like a BIT of a reach for the early first round of this draft.

Somebody like him (or Kolton Wong, say) would be a nice prize at #44, though.

[Frayed Knot]

A BA piece on Taylor Guerrieri, s South Carolina HS RHP who is often being mentioned as someone who could go right around the 13th pick next week.


Excepts:
No prospect has seen a bigger rise in draft stock than Guerrieri, a 6-foot-3, 195-pound righthander. The odds of him ending up on campus [that would be Univ South Carolina where he has a scholarship] are looking slimmer every day.

"It's the best high school arm I've ever seen," an American League scout said. "I walked into the ballpark and saw the first pitch he threw in the bullpen and I could have left. There is no chance I see this guy unless he's pitching against us in the big leagues.
"Everything was above-average to plus-plus the day I saw him. It's easy, effortless. I walked out of there with my jaw dropped. This guy is unbelievable."

At his best, Guerrieri ranges from 93-96 mph with his fastball and can touch 97. He mixes in an 81-83 curveball with sharp break. His fastball has plenty of life to it, sinking and running when he throws to his arm side and showing heavy sink when he goes to his glove side. Guerrieri has a unique grip for his curveball, also a plus pitch.

"I tuck my middle finger under my index and that causes it to get more spin," Guerrieri said. "I was messing around with it when I was younger. I picked that up and figured out it could be a good pitch for me."

Like most high school arms, Guerrieri doesn't have much need for more than a fastball-curveball combination, but he also works with a changeup and cutter.
"The cutter is opposite of my fastball," Guerrieri said. "It'll run away from righties, about the speed of 89-92. It looks like a fastball coming at you, then it darts the other way. The changeup I haven't been able to use much this year. I'm looking to use that this coming year, wherever I am. Originally, I started with a circle grip and couldn't get a feel for it. So I switched to a three-finger. That's worked wonders for me."

[Frayed Knot]

From a BA Q&A on the draft:

Q -- If it's a choice between [uConn OF] George Springer or [LSU OF] Mikie Mahtook for the Mets are #13, who do you take and why? Personally, I like Springer's bat better than Mahtook, who may also not be able to stick in CF. Mahtook has the look of a 4th outfielder, while Springer may be a nice above-average bat. Thoughts?

Jim Callis -- I would take Springer, though it's close. There's more risk in the bat, but I think Springer gets hammered a little unfairly, and his tools and upside are better than Mahtook's. I agree, Mahtook isn't a lock to stay in center field.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

POP QUIZ: Assuming samples of all three are available-- and they will be-- which would YOU prefer the Mets snatch up?

A) High-level college pitching (Jungmann, J. Bradley, Gray, Barnes)

Toolsy college OF (Springer, Mahtook)

C) Prep arm (A. Bradley, Guerrieri, Norris)

D) Toolsy prep bat (Lindor, Baez, Swihart)

I know that only losers draft for "need," but I can't help feeling, given where the depth is, that a polished college arm with, say, a 2013 ETA-- of which there might be a few-- might be the way to go in the 13 slot, followed by whoever slides out of the college bats like, say, Kolton Wong, Jackie Bradley or Levi Michael with the second pick.

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

Ashie62 wrote: Unfair to Bradley, but he reminds me of Cameron Maybin & B.J. Upton, both duds.

I know this is from more than a week ago, and I know Edge kind of deflated it with his reply, but reading this quote hurt my brain.

I'll set aside Maybin, a 24 year old player who is already a success by baseball prospect standards in that he's actually made it to the big leagues (and is a positive contributor, at that); but how in the hell is someone going to call BJ Upton a dud? Since 2004, he's been worth about 15 wins over replacement, good enough to put him in the top 100 position players in the game over that time, and he's only in his 26 year old season. For comparison, Chase Utley's* first full year in the majors was his 26 year old season. So Upton's proven himself in the top 20-25% of position players in the game essentially before the age Chase Utley even got started, and someone considers him a dud!

I'm supposed to be doing work and not posting right now, but wow.



*- I'll use Chase Utley not because I'm totes in love with his jock or something, but because he's not a player anyone could reasonably consider a dud and who started his career towards the olderish end of the spectrum (but not incredibly atypically old, of course).