Expectations of Eleven: R.A. Dickey

[Edgy MD]

Pos: RH SP

Born: 10/29/1974 in Nashville, Tennessee (36 in 2011), on the day the Mets traded Ken Boswell to Houston for Bob Gallagher.

Acquired: Signed as a free agent December 21, 2009 away from the Twins, as recalled in no thread I can find.

2010 Stats:

Tm	Lg	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB	BB-R WAR	FanGraphs WAR
Buffalo	IL (AAA)	4	2	.667	2.23	8	8	0	2	1	0	60.67	55	21	15	3	8	0	37	3	1	4	243		1.038	8.2	0.4	1.2	5.5	4.63
NYM	NL	11	9	.550	2.84	27	26	0	2	1	0	174.33	165	62	55	13	42	3	104	4	0	11	713	138	1.187	8.5	0.7	2.2	5.4	2.48	3.4	2.9
Total	All	15	11	.577	2.68	35	34	0	4	2	0	235.00	220	83	70	16	50	3	141	7	1	15	956		1.149	8.4	0.6	1.9	5.4	2.82

Wifey: Anne.


Last Word: R.A. is to be honored by the BBWAA for the You Gotta Have Heart award, which is nice, but there was supposedly some Official MLB "Breakout" or "Breakthrough" Award, and the Mets official nominee was Angel Pagan, who fans visiting the Mets website were urged to vote for. I loved Angel's season, and thought he may have been the most valuable Met, but what he really did was have a full-year version of 2009's fine half a season. R.A. kicked through the wall and saw what was on the other side in 2010, and it was good.

There were hints that the Mets might be negotiating a multi-year deal for him earlier in the offseason. They continue to negotiate as arbitration approaches, but nobody's really mentioned "multi-year" in a while.

He also earned himself a Craig Swan Award.

Best Day in 2010: Rodney Allen Rippey pitched the equivelant of a perfect game for Bufalo on April 29, a day that perhaps turned his life around, but it wouldn't have meant all that much if he didn't follow up the promotion it earned him with the silly goodness embodied in this game, a 1-0, one-hi, one-wak shutout for the not-yet-dead-in-the-water Mets of Cole Hamels and the Phils on August 13, which simply personified the Bearded Wonder's Don't-Quittiness --- and, as demonstated in this thread, also demonstrated the magic clairvoyance of John Cougar Lunchbucket.

What do you expect of Reluctantly Arbitrating Dickey in 2011?

[batmagadanleadoff]

Last Word: R.A. is to be honored by the BBWAA for the You Gotta Have Heart award, which is nice ...

R.A. would be the favorite for the You Gotta Have an Ulnar Collateral Ligament Award.

[Edgy MD]

I may be wrong, but I think those 235 innings totalled is the most for any Met pitcher since 1990.

[Ceetar]

Last Word: R.A. is to be honored by the BBWAA for the You Gotta Have Heart award, which is nice ... I suppose he's not eligible for the Ulnar Collateral Ligament Award.

Why not? He has one in the other arm after all!


I suspect good things from R.A. I was extremely skeptical through most of the season last year, thinking that the wheels would fall off and teams would figure it out and the Knuckler wouldn't always work, but it does really seem like he's figured out how to be a knuckleball pitcher and I don't think that goes away.

I don't know that we can expect what we got last year (which was basically the best performance out of _any_ of the free agent pitchers Omar could've signed), but with his changing speeds and his not completely useless fastball, plus his obvious intelligence when it comes to pitching and understanding the game, I think his ERA will still be ar ound 3.


so .. 16-6 3.14 ERA. Consistantly reliable all season, AND maybe even throws an inning or two in relief here or there. I think he tops the 235 innings from last year.

[metirish]

I expect more of the same , and more of a leadership role for R.A.

[Guest attgig]

Becomes our ace out of spring training, starting opening day. because of the status, he's matched up against the toughest opposing pitchers which hurts his record, but his pitching hurts the other pitchers too.

14-5.
35 games started.
3 relief apperances
1 save
255 innings
146 SO
2.86 ERA
1.195 WHIP
1 no-hitter


1 huge regret for sandy for not signing him to something longer.

[Edgy MD]

Don't believe for a minute that opening day starters have their record meaningfully affected by any tendency to get more challenging matchups than other pitchers.

[Benjamin Grimm]

14-10, 3.50 ERA.

[Frayed Knot]

I expect a Real Ass-kicking season, or at least a Reasonably Astute one.

[ashie62]

Edgy DC wrote: Don't believe for a minute that opening day starters have their record meaningfully affected by any tendency to get more challenging matchups than other pitchers.

I think it was being suggested that Dickey may be lacking as a "1"

[ashie62]

14-10 4.00 ERA

[TransMonk]

A Regression to Average:

9-11, 4.46 ERA

[Guest attgig]

Edgy DC wrote: Don't believe for a minute that opening day starters have their record meaningfully affected by any tendency to get more challenging matchups than other pitchers.

I think for the first month or so, there is an adverse affect. after a few weeks, with days off and schedules, you don't have it as much, but i think at least in april, you have that. Once teams start having their offdays and whatnot, the matches start to shift a bit.

If dickey is the #1, he'd be going up against johnson, halladay, Jimenez, and hudson as his first four opponents. If you're the opposing pitcher, it's not going to be easy to start off the season with a great W-L record. Even if you do well, a lot of times, the decision could end up going to the bullpen.

[Edgy MD]

Well, virtually whoever he catches against the Phillies is going to be a tough draw, but let's bounce this forward when those first four starts happen and see if it shakes out that way.

[Edgy MD]

Asides, I'm guessing the Mets are eyeing Pelfrey for their opening day start.

[Frayed Knot]

Between differing opening days, differing off-days, rain-outs, skipped back-of-the-rotation starters, injuries, etc., those #1 vs #1, #2 vs #2, and on down the line matchups are pretty much blown up by the 2nd week of the season.

[Guest attgig]

Edgy DC wrote: Asides, I'm guessing the Mets are eyeing Pelfrey for their opening day start.

not in my head. =)

[Ceetar]

It works out, the #2 starter probably gets the home opener.

Unless they skip the 5th guy the first time through, which I'd consider for the right circumstances.

[G-Fafif]

I expect my vocabulary to be expanded every fifth day after R.A. pitches, and not in the way I find new ways to say "FUCK!" after Ollie pitches.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Last Word: R.A. is to be honored by the BBWAA for the You Gotta Have Heart award, which is nice ... R.A. would be the favorite for the You Gotta Have an Ulnar Collateral Ligament Award.

If anything, I would think that he might be a favorite for the You DON'T Gotta have an Ulnar Collateral Ligament Award.

He throws knucklers of varying speeds, and appears to be able to locate 'em. His performance didn't suffer markedly on his "second time through" the league. Perhaps it's mere Ridiculous Ardor on my part, but I think it's closer to sustainable than not.

Put me down for...

36 G/34 GS
13-11
239 IP
139 K
3.52 ERA
1.29 WHIP

[Ceetar]

Imagine he actually _built_ on his success rather than regressed in some way?

No, stop trying to tell me It's silly. IMAGINE. Imagine Ryan Howard flailing at the knuckleball for strike three on 9/25 to end the game, and the division race.

[smg58]

The error bars are huge, but I'm going to go with 15-11, 3.50. Teams will adjust to him a bit, but he'll still be legit.

[willpie]

33 starts
6 relief appearances
16-12
1 (3-inning) Save
4.12 ERA
1.39 WHIP

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm going old school and high hopes with this and borrowing Wilbur Wood's 1971 season verbatim:

22-13, 1.91 ERA, 210 K, 44 games, 42 starts, 7 shutouts, 1 save in 334 IP.

[batmagadanleadoff]

In 1971, Wilbur Wood led the league in Pitcher WAR (10.7) and ERA+ (189). He finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting, though -- behind Vida Blue and Mickey Lolich. (career years for all three). As a way of gauging Wood's 10.7 WAR, Dwight Gooden's WAR in his great season of 1985 was 11.7.

From 1971-1973, Wood may have been baseball's best pitcher --perhaps even better than Seaver. I'll take Wood's '71 from RA.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Wilbur Wood was one of the first baseball cards that I recall really arrested me. He was the shizz back then, and like Dickey a late bloomer once he got the knuckler happening.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Arrested?

I don't think that Wood gets the historical love he deserves. Wood never won a major award, and although Bill Veeck was the master at getting attention, Wood's teams were mediocre.

Check out the SI cover for Wood's claw like grip on the incoming knuckler.

[Edgy MD]

Almost no knuckler gets the love he deserves. Even as Niekro's in the Hall of Fame, you got folks acting like he snuck in the back way.

[Fman99]

I expect him to Rape Anally the competition. 17-5, 3.22 ERA, 170 K, best quotes, hot wife. Kills Bin Laden. Legalizes dope and brings me some sticky bud.

[ashie62]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'm going old school and high hopes with this and borrowing Wilbur Wood's 1971 season verbatim: 22-13, 1.91 ERA, 210 K, 44 games, 42 starts, 7 shutouts, 1 save in 334 IP.

Can Dickey start both ends of a day-night doubleheader?