CAIRO projections for 2011

[Vic Sage]

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/12/30/1903174/cairo-projections-bring-the-doom-for-the-2011-mets?ref=yahoo

76-77 wins, 4th place in the east, behind Marlins.
I think they're optimistic.

[Ceetar]

well, i imagine that's factoring in like 34 starts from pat misch or Perez or Gee (or worse)

I find it unlikely the Mets will be under .500.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yeah, I think they'll get about 80 to 82 wins.

I agree with part about the fourth place.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, yeah, it locks them in with December 30's roster, but they do these things when they do them. I don't trust any system that evokes Miguel Cairo, but here we are.

It says "all the position players will be a year older" but I expect them to get younger at second and catcher. And probably better at second, at least.

I pretty much expect them to get better or stay the same at most positions (though it likely won't work out that way) and worse at most slots through the rotation.

[metirish]

Ceetar wrote: well, i imagine that's factoring in like 34 starts from pat misch or Perez or Gee (or worse) I find it unlikely the Mets will be under .500.

Unlikely?......why Ceetar why?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Being a year older isn't always a bad thing. It's probably a good thing fo players like Ike Davis and Josh Thole, for example.

I think Bay will be better. I think second base and catcher will be more productive, though perhaps not by a whole lot. I think we'll stay the same at third base, shortstop, and wherever Pagan plays. Beltran... who knows?

I expect the real decline to be in the starting rotation.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: Well, yeah, it locks them in with December 30's roster, but they do these things when they do them. I don't trust any system that evokes Miguel Cairo, but here we are. It says "all the position players will be a year older" but I expect them to get younger at second and catcher. And probably better at second, at least. I pretty much expect them to get better or stay the same at most positions (though it likely won't work out that way) and worse at most slots through the rotation.

I think Pelfrey will have a similar year to last year, but a wee bit more consistent. (in that he won't have the horrible month). I expect Niese to be better, and specifically, I dont' expect him to hit a wall in September. I was very very skeptical of Dickey early on, but he kept suceeding all year and he's fully converted me. I do believe he's refined the knuckleball and will continue to be effective.

I also think there is some value to how different the three of them are when facing opponents.

yeah, position players will be a year older, but you could say Davis, Thole and (Murphy) and even Wright and Reyes are a year older in the right direction (i.e. towards the 'prime years')

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

Bah!

I say we have an All-Star third baseman, an All-Star shortstop, an All-Star center fielder who has had time to recover from an injury, an All-Star left fielder who will be fully recovered from his concussion and has his "adjust to New York" year under his belt, a right fielder who surpassed all expectations last season, a first baseman and catcher who had decent -- at worst -- rookie seasons and are improving. Our rotation has a two-time Cy Young Award winner who, while missing the first part of the season, will fare better with actual run support. Our should-have-been-an-All Star pitcher will be the ace that he was for two-thirds of the season. Our knuckleballer was a wonderful surprise. The rookie pitcher was outstanding until wearing down and that won't happen again this season. The All-Star closer is a douche, but will be back with a chip on his shoulder, something to prove and a contract clause to serve as motivation. The closer-in-waiting throws 100 mph.

Screw the Marlins. They don't scare me. We'll take some of their useful parts during the annual fire sale.

The Braves? Chipper's swan song will be a nice third-place finish.

The Phillies? I don't care if they embrace the MFY model and try to buy a championship. They're due to have a season where they go off the rails. If buying a pennant was as easy as it sounds, we'd have done it already.

So take your 80 wins and fourth place. I'm riding SandyBall all the way to Series.

[batmagadanleadoff]

With Cliff Lee on the Phillies, the Mets are a playoff lock.

[Ceetar]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: With Cliff Lee on the Phillies, the Mets are a playoff lock.

No team that Cliff Lee ha started the season with has ever made the playoffs.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ceetar wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: With Cliff Lee on the Phillies, the Mets are a playoff lock. No team that Cliff Lee ha started the season with has ever made the playoffs.

There you go! Plus, the Phillies are so good that they'll probably have a bad season. They'll try so hard to win that by the time their games start, they'll already be exhausted.

[metirish]

Ruben Amaro has been too smart by half.....fucking wanker.....fourth place but with the phillies in last....yippee

[Fman99]

I project Miguel Cairo will suck in 2011.

[ashie62]

We can play with all the projections we like. The good news is they have to actually play the games. All things, good and bad, are possible.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Ceetar wrote: I think Pelfrey will have a similar year to last year, but a wee bit more consistent. (in that he won't have the horrible month). I expect Niese to be better, and specifically, I dont' expect him to hit a wall in September. I was very very skeptical of Dickey early on, but he kept suceeding all year and he's fully converted me. I do believe he's refined the knuckleball and will continue to be effective.

That's fine (although it's hard to expect Dickey to sustain his sub-3.00-ERA act over 32 starts), but Pelfrey goes from 2010's opening-day number-two starter to 2011's number-one, and Dickey from number-six to number two.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: Ceetar wrote: I think Pelfrey will have a similar year to last year, but a wee bit more consistent. (in that he won't have the horrible month). I expect Niese to be better, and specifically, I dont' expect him to hit a wall in September. I was very very skeptical of Dickey early on, but he kept suceeding all year and he's fully converted me. I do believe he's refined the knuckleball and will continue to be effective. That's fine (although it's hard to expect Dickey to sustain his sub-3.00-ERA act over 32 starts), but Pelfrey goes from 2010's opening-day number-two starter to 2011's number-one, and Dickey from number-six to number two.

Well, maybe Dickey doesn't quite put up the same numbers, but he'll make up for a slight drop off with pitching in April.

I don't really care which order you put them in. You could make an argument that Pelf was 4, and he'll actually still be a step up o ver Maine and Perez.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I don't care either, but it serves for comparison.

[Fman99]

metsguyinmichigan wrote: Bah! I say we have an All-Star third baseman, an All-Star shortstop, an All-Star center fielder who has had time to recover from an injury, an All-Star left fielder who will be fully recovered from his concussion and has his "adjust to New York" year under his belt, a right fielder who surpassed all expectations last season, a first baseman and catcher who had decent -- at worst -- rookie seasons and are improving. Our rotation has a two-time Cy Young Award winner who, while missing the first part of the season, will fare better with actual run support. Our should-have-been-an-All Star pitcher will be the ace that he was for two-thirds of the season. Our knuckleballer was a wonderful surprise. The rookie pitcher was outstanding until wearing down and that won't happen again this season. The All-Star closer is a douche, but will be back with a chip on his shoulder, something to prove and a contract clause to serve as motivation. The closer-in-waiting throws 100 mph. Screw the Marlins. They don't scare me. We'll take some of their useful parts during the annual fire sale. The Braves? Chipper's swan song will be a nice third-place finish. The Phillies? I don't care if they embrace the MFY model and try to buy a championship. They're due to have a season where they go off the rails. If buying a pennant was as easy as it sounds, we'd have done it already. So take your 80 wins and fourth place. I'm riding SandyBall all the way to Series.

Your ideas intrigue me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

[Theoldmole]

I'm with MichiganGuy.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

It's very likely that at least five regular positions-- given proper distribution of playing time-- will see significant bumps in production, whether due to better health (Reyes, Beltran), better health/production (Bay), or better players playing better (Thole/Paulino, Emaus/Murphy/Turner); none of the other slots seem to figure for significant backsliding (unless you think that Wright, Davis and Pagan topped out last year).

I see enough increased run production to offset the early-season pitching dearth.

I see a .500 team, with room for growth.

I see bright horizons, one sweep of the MFYs, and meaningful games in late August.

I see a better, Sandy-burnished America and a happier new year.

[Vic Sage]

take a breath. lay down. it'll pass.