line-up optimization

[Vic Sage]

i've been engaging in the pointless exercise of thinking about the best possible lineup with our current roster. Ultimately, i don't think it makes much difference over the course of a season, but i just can't face the reality of our current lineup.

Reyes/ ss - he pouts if he's not leading off
Thole/ c - patience, bat control, ob%, LHed
Pagan/ cf - line drives, speed/power, SwHer
Wright/ 3b - nuff said
Beltran/ Rf - next 3 are interchangeable, based on matchups, until someone gets hot
Bay/ Lf - ditto
Davis/ 1b - ditto
-pitcher- ? yup
Castillo/ 2b - i like the idea of having someone on base in front of reyes

[Farmer Ted]

The Mets have been in the suckitude department ever since Beltran and Castillo got a whiff of coming off the DL. Bench 'em.

[Guest attgig]

if you want to do it all scientific like...
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=Reyes&OBA0=.338&Slug0=.422&Player1=Thole&OBA1=+0.349&Slug1=+0.408&Player2=Pagan&OBA2=.364&Slug2=.461&Player3=Wright&OBA3=.382&Slug3=.502&Player4=Bay&OBA4=.353&Slug4=.435&Player5=Davis&OBA5=+0.333&Slug5=+0.442&Player6=Beltran&OBA6=.353&Slug6=.453&Player7=Castillo&OBA7=.309&Slug7=.310&Player8=Pitcher&OBA8=+0.262&Slug8=+0.173&Model=0

I plugged in numbers of expected states through the rest of the season from fangraphs (zips) where avail.
and plugged in santana's current numbers for pitcher.

[Frayed Knot]

Vic Sage wrote: i've been engaging in the pointless exercise of thinking about the best possible lineup with our current roster. Ultimately, i don't think it makes much difference over the course of a season, but i just can't face the reality of our current lineup. Reyes/ ss - he pouts if he's not leading off Thole/ c - patience, bat control, ob%, LHed Pagan/ cf - line drives, speed/power, SwHer Wright/ 3b - nuff said Beltran/ Rf - next 3 are interchangeable, based on matchups, until someone gets hot Bay/ Lf - ditto Davis/ 1b - ditto -pitcher- ? yup Castillo/ 2b - i like the idea of having someone on base in front of reyes

I like it - except that Davis doesn't get pitched to much and he's the only one knocking the ball over the fence these days.

The Mets have been in the suckitude department ever since Beltran and Castillo got a whiff of coming off the DL. Bench 'em.

Especially since it was Beltran and Castillo who caused Wright & Davis to hit sub-.200 during that same period, as well as Bay to Slug under .240

[metsmarathon]

attgig wrote: if you want to do it all scientific like... http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=Reyes&OBA0=.338&Slug0=.422&Player1=Thole&OBA1=+0.349&Slug1=+0.408&Player2=Pagan&OBA2=.364&Slug2=.461&Player3=Wright&OBA3=.382&Slug3=.502&Player4=Bay&OBA4=.353&Slug4=.435&Player5=Davis&OBA5=+0.333&Slug5=+0.442&Player6=Beltran&OBA6=.353&Slug6=.453&Player7=Castillo&OBA7=.309&Slug7=.310&Player8=Pitcher&OBA8=+0.262&Slug8=+0.173&Model=0 I plugged in numbers of expected states through the rest of the season from fangraphs (zips) where avail. and plugged in santana's current numbers for pitcher.

my big problem is that it assumes there to be no contribution from a player's baserunning ability. and there should be some. does it trump all else? prolly not. but it should be a factor.

[Vic Sage]

interesting to note that one of the worst possible lineup combos has Reyes / Castillo / Pagan as 1-2-3, and that's the top of the lineup that Jerry is now sending out regularly.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Vic Sage wrote: interesting to note that one of the worst possible lineup combos has Reyes / Castillo / Pagan as 1-2-3, and that's the top of the lineup that Jerry is now sending out regularly.

Does the program account for whether a lefty or righty is pitching? Because Pagan is no great shakes batting right-handed. And at the risk of beating a dead horse to some more death, Castillo immediately following Reyes is terribly inefficient.

[Vic Sage]

I like it - except that Davis doesn't get pitched to much and he's the only one knocking the ball over the fence these days.

well, like i said, Davis/Beltran/Bay are sort of interchangeable in the 5-7 slots, depending on whose hot and matchups. Yes, Davis is hitting them out, but not at a prodigious rate, and he isn't really hitting much overall, after a hot start. We're as likely to see Bay and/or Beltran take off as Ike is to get hot again. But sure, we could flip Ike and Carlos for now.

And what the math doesn't tell you is how ineffective Reyes is when NOT batting leadoff. More a factor than "baserunning", i think, is the psychological effects on hitters of where they hit.

Reyes/ ss
Thole/ c
Pagan/ cf
Wright/ 3b
Davis/ 1b
Bay/ Lf
Beltran/ Rf
-pitcher-
Castillo/ 2b

[Guest Edgy DC]

Perhaps, but I also think he wasn't quite ready to be in the lineup at all when he he was batting third.

The thing I like most about the pitcher-eighth thing, is that the reason to bat him ninth instead --- the 11.1% chance of him getting an extra at-bat when batting eighth --- is deleted by the latter day trend to go to the bullpen (and pinch-hitters) early.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy DC wrote: Perhaps, but I also think he wasn't quite ready to be in the lineup at all when he he was batting third. The thing I like most about the pitcher-eighth thing, is that the reason to bat him ninth instead --- the 11.1% chance of him getting an extra at-bat when batting eighth --- is deleted by the latter day trend to go to the bullpen (and pinch-hitters) early.

I like your post. Plus, it's kinda like tricking Reyes into being the #2 hitter without him catching on.

OE I say "kinda" because the #1 slot in a batting order will lead off an inning about twice as often as every other slot.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, the Reyes sample size out of the #1 slot is so small and the most recent part comes from a time when he was still rusty from a lengthy lay-off that the only thing I think it "proved" was to those who went in pre-convinced that he's born to be a leadoff hitter and nothing else.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Or, alternately, Sage's theory that he's got some psychological impairment when batting in another spot, as if his self-image is challenged or somesuch. I don't think that's too crazy a notion, though hard to build a case around.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Frayed Knot wrote: Yeah, the Reyes sample size out of the #1 slot is so small and the most recent part comes from a time when he was still rusty from a lengthy lay-off that the only thing I think it "proved" was to those who went in pre-convinced that he's born to be a leadoff hitter and nothing else.

I would say that his return and maybe Beltran's too suggest that the middle of the order is not where to place returning Met heros, at least until they get going. Oh well, it all blood in the centrifuge by now.

[G-Fafif]

Optimal lineups would utilize fewer Met batters.

[Guest attgig]

Edgy DC wrote: The thing I like most about the pitcher-eighth thing, is that the reason to bat him ninth instead --- the 11.1% chance of him getting an extra at-bat when batting eighth --- is deleted by the latter day trend to go to the bullpen (and pinch-hitters) early.

though the conundrum happens when you're in the 5th/6th innings, in a close game, and the pitcher spot comes up after having through 90ish pitches. do you let him bat for an extra inning, or pinch hit for him while not getting the most out of your starter as you can?

[Ceetar]

attgig wrote: Edgy DC wrote: The thing I like most about the pitcher-eighth thing, is that the reason to bat him ninth instead --- the 11.1% chance of him getting an extra at-bat when batting eighth --- is deleted by the latter day trend to go to the bullpen (and pinch-hitters) early. though the conundrum happens when you're in the 5th/6th innings, in a close game, and the pitcher spot comes up after having through 90ish pitches. do you let him bat for an extra inning, or pinch hit for him while not getting the most out of your starter as you can?

We've got Jerry. He's just going to bunt anyway.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I let him bat and try to get two more innings out of him. Maybe more.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Me too, unless, perhaps, you have a good pinch-hitter/pitcher matchup and runner(s) in scoring position.

[TransMonk]

I let him bat too.

If I'm an NL manager, I work with my starting pitchers' offense a lot more to make sure that they can at least get the bunt down and put the ball in play when needed. I don't need them to be .300 hitters, but they need to be helping the cause as best they can with the bat and not be an automatic out.

But yeah, I'd let him bat unless I didn't think he had anything left.