Cold Turkey Jerry

[Guest Edgy DC]

While Jerry Manuel has been to me, in many ways, more frustrating than Willie Randolph, I always thought that his saving grace was that he learned; he made adjustments from his failures, however disappointing the speed he made those adjustments with was.

Well, you want to see some learning? Do ya? Well dim the lights and sit down and strap yourselves in, because I've got some news to spill.

Jerry. Manuel. Has Stopped. Bunting.

Jerry.

Manuel.

Has stopped.

Bunting.

Through some alchemical formula comination of the limited (and then non-) availablity of Luis Castillo, the related elevation of Angel Pagan to the second spot in the batting order, Jerry's measuring the results of his experience to date, and his (not to be underestimated) secret reading of the Crane Pool, Manuel has scrapped his favorite weapon. Melted it down. Consigned it and decomissioned it.

I'm sure one of you will remind me of a case or two or three I've missed, but I don't really care, because I'm this deep into the post. I thought I'd find that Manuel hadn't yet bunted in this homestand. In fact, my calculations show that one has to go all the way back to May 30 --- eight games, or 66 2/3 innings --- to get to the last successful Mets sacrifice bunt --- a sixth-inning beaut by R. A. Dickey laid down against the Brewers in the day's 10-4 win over Milwaukee. It was Dickey's second on the day, but the true pattern of Cold Turkey Jerry goes back even further than that --- all the way to the previous Mets homestand at CitiField. It was then --- in the third inning of the 3-0 win that capped the Mets three-game sweep of the Phillies --- that Jerry last successfully bunted with a position player (or anybody besides those two by R.A. Dickey).

We're talking 11 games (or 96 2/3 innings). Yeah, there may be failed sacrifices in there, or maybe (again) successful ones that I'm missing. But challenge my data as you will, and I think our man has turned over a leaf.

Date	Res	Mets	Opp	Innings	Bunts	Player
8-Jun	W	2	1	10 2/3	0
6-Jun	W	7	6	8	0
5-Jun	W	6	1	8	0
4-Jun	W	4	3	8	0
2-Jun	L	1	6	11	0
1-Jun	W	4	2	9	0
31-May	L	6	18	9	0
30-May	W	10	4	9	2	Dickey (2)
29-May	L	6	8	9	0
28-May	L	0	2	9	0
27-May	W	3	0	8	1	Castillo

[duan]

there was definitely a failed one by Pagan in a game i watched last weekend I think. Came on a 1 strike count which someone in Fox thought was interesting cause both managers had told their guys to take a strike before putting bunt on.

there was also RA Dickey's butcher boy hit.


Maybe it's the whole having a guy who can hit and when he does hit it go for extra bases more then once in a blue moon in the 2 slot that's the key.

[Ceetar]

I'd find it hard to believe, but I haven't watched even close to every inning lately.

It'd be nice to see. I'd see it as a mixture of the situation not calling for it, Castillo being on the DL (At the risk of starting another tangent and being criticized for not being able to know this, I suspect Manuel doesn't really care for Castillo that much and bunts with him more because of it. I'd use the rate at which he's used Cora this year, and the comments he's made when he does so "I just wanted to get Cora in there" to draw this conclusion. Or the way he used him coming back from the DL in '08, which still makes me seething mad), and the Mets hitting some home runs. Manuel is obsessed with power, and if the Mets are hitting some home runs, it reinforces to him that maybe he doesn't actually need to play for one run at a time.

Manuel, and Willie and Howe etc etc before him, do learn. everyone does. Manuel's is so incredibly slow at it that it rarely can be called learning. Maybe we can just call it 'philosophy' but the way he pulls Santana (and maybe now Pelfrey) in tie games or close games isn't learning when the bullpen again blows a save. A year of solid performance from Pagan wasn't enough to play him over a decent spring from GMJ. It took a whole week. And I'm still not sure it was Jerry that finally got him off the team.

[duan]

can't find that pagan one for love nor money, maybe it wasn't him.

[Fman99]

I seem to recall Cora bunting for a single sometime in the last week, when the third baseman was playing back.

Having said that, your primary bunting culprit is on the disabled list right now. When he comes back, and Tejada gets sent back down, the bunting shall commence again methinks. I have been operating on the assumption that Castillo bunts on his own, in any situation where there's a runner on first and less than two outs. He almost looks saddened when he has to swing and try and put a ball in play.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, bunting for a single is a whole 'nother animal from bunting for a sacrifice.

[duan]

yes it is.

[Ceetar]

duan wrote: can't find that pagan one for love nor money, maybe it wasn't him.

Last Friday, Dickey gets a hit scoring Tejada, Reyes gets a hit. 1st and 2nd, no outs. Pagan takes the first pitch call strike, then gameday lists the second pitch as 'foul bunt'. Don't know if that was an attempt at a hit or not, but giving up the second strike puts you in an 0-2 hole and makes it unlikely you'll succeed. (he GIDPd) I feel like I've noticed indecision within AB before as it pertained to bunting, and I can't imagine it helps the batter to switch philosophy's halfway through an AB.

[Frayed Knot]

Stuff like that was really getting on my nerves a few weeks back: Jerry putting a bunch of hitters in the hole by calling for bunts (when they were of questionable value in the first place) then turning them loose only after they were at a huge disadvantage. Of course part of that is the hitters' fault for not getting the thing down, but one of my biggest problems with the sac bunt strategy is that its proponents always assume success.

Fortunately that does seem to have stopped recently although it remains to be seen if it's a true change or just a lull.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Ceetar wrote: Manuel, and Willie and Howe etc etc before him, do learn. everyone does. Manuel's is so incredibly slow at it that it rarely can be called learning. Maybe we can just call it 'philosophy' but the way he pulls Santana (and maybe now Pelfrey) in tie games or close games isn't learning when the bullpen again blows a save. A year of solid performance from Pagan wasn't enough to play him over a decent spring from GMJ. It took a whole week. And I'm still not sure it was Jerry that finally got him off the team.

Let's talk about bunting --- and almost 100 innings without a non-pitcher sacrifice. Yippee!!

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: Ceetar wrote: Manuel, and Willie and Howe etc etc before him, do learn. everyone does. Manuel's is so incredibly slow at it that it rarely can be called learning. Maybe we can just call it 'philosophy' but the way he pulls Santana (and maybe now Pelfrey) in tie games or close games isn't learning when the bullpen again blows a save. A year of solid performance from Pagan wasn't enough to play him over a decent spring from GMJ. It took a whole week. And I'm still not sure it was Jerry that finally got him off the team. Let's talk about bunting --- and almost 100 innings without a non-pitcher sacrifice. Yippee!!

Baby Steps.

Who knows, maybe we'll swap Mejia for Parnell one of these days.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Keep trying to hijack and I'll call in the thread marshalls.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Sacrifice Hits by Mets players in 2010. (Non-pitchers in upper case.)

[table:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]Date[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]Player[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]SH[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-04-10[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]TATIS[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-04-10[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]CORA[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-04-16[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]Perez[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-04-17[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]JACOBS[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-04-17[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]CASTILLO[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-04-17[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]Santana[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-04-18[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]Maine[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-04-20[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]PAGAN[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-04-22[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]CASTILLO[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-04-23[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]Maine[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-04-27[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]CASTILLO[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-04-28[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]Maine[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-05-01[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]Pelfrey[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-05-02[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]Santana[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-05-05[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]CASTILLO[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-05-05[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]Niese[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-05-08[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]Santana[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-05-09[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]PAGAN[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-05-10[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]Maine[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-05-14[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]Valdes[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-05-17[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]CASTILLO[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-05-19[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]CORA[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-05-20[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]Valdes[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-05-25[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]CASTILLO[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-05-25[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]Dickey[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-05-27[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]CASTILLO[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]1[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][tr:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2010-05-30[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]Dickey[/td:vbz4fzk3][td:vbz4fzk3]2[/td:vbz4fzk3][/tr:vbz4fzk3][/table:vbz4fzk3]

[Ceetar]

Castillo 7
Maine 4
Santana 3
Pagan 2
Valdes 2
Dickey 2
Cora 2

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I'll admit it-- I'm mildly surprised at how long it's been.

And I'll enjoy it all the more, considering that I don't expect it to last. I have a feeling that this is stopped-clock-brand right, here, and that he'll go right back to the little, nubby ball-kisses after Castillo returns and/or the run production dries up momentarily.

[MFS62]

Ceetar wrote: Who knows, maybe we'll swap Mejia for Parnell one of these days.

We're talking about Jerry's progress here.
That would be part of the 12 step program for GMs.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

You're negotiating with a terrorist.

[duan]

Ceetar wrote: duan wrote: can't find that pagan one for love nor money, maybe it wasn't him. Last Friday, Dickey gets a hit scoring Tejada, Reyes gets a hit. 1st and 2nd, no outs. Pagan takes the first pitch call strike, then gameday lists the second pitch as 'foul bunt'. Don't know if that was an attempt at a hit or not, but giving up the second strike puts you in an 0-2 hole and makes it unlikely you'll succeed. (he GIDPd) I feel like I've noticed indecision within AB before as it pertained to bunting, and I can't imagine it helps the batter to switch philosophy's halfway through an AB.

that was the one. makes sense now cause I also saw where Dickey did the butcher boy thing and presumably they were two at bats apart.

[Ceetar]

duan wrote: duan wrote: can't find that pagan one for love nor money, maybe it wasn't him. Last Friday, Dickey gets a hit scoring Tejada, Reyes gets a hit. 1st and 2nd, no outs. Pagan takes the first pitch call strike, then gameday lists the second pitch as 'foul bunt'. Don't know if that was an attempt at a hit or not, but giving up the second strike puts you in an 0-2 hole and makes it unlikely you'll succeed. (he GIDPd) I feel like I've noticed indecision within AB before as it pertained to bunting, and I can't imagine it helps the batter to switch philosophy's halfway through an AB. that was the one. makes sense now cause I also saw where Dickey did the butcher boy thing and presumably they were two at bats apart.

Pagan just did it again. 1-0 count, attempted bunt for a strike. giving up a strike, and ends up K'ing. bleh.

[Frayed Knot]

I think that one was just him taking a pitch thinking maybe Reyes would steal.
Don't think he ever intended to bunt that one.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: I think that one was just him taking a pitch thinking maybe Reyes would steal. Don't think he ever intended to bunt that one.

That actually makes it worse though. Then it's just giving up a strike for the off-chance of an extra base for Reyes.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Ceetar wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: I think that one was just him taking a pitch thinking maybe Reyes would steal. Don't think he ever intended to bunt that one. That actually makes it worse though. Then it's just giving up a strike for the off-chance of an extra base for Reyes.

Whether or not this is a bad idea at all depends on the hitter. Giving away a strike doesn't necessarily kill your chances of a successful at-bat, depending on how developed your foul-off/pitch-recog skills are. And a strike for a base is a trade that virtually all smart folk would make.

But yeah, it's not the same as bunting, much less worse.

[Guest Edgy DC]

No, taking a pitch is not worse than intentinoally making an out.

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: I think that one was just him taking a pitch thinking maybe Reyes would steal. Don't think he ever intended to bunt that one. That actually makes it worse though. Then it's just giving up a strike for the off-chance of an extra base for Reyes.

C'mon, guys take pitches all the time for all kinds of reasons. Doing so with a fake bunt is hardly some kind of flawed strategy.
Plus if the runner is going it could hold the catcher back for an extra half-second.

[Ceetar]

It's one thing if the runner _is_ going, which Wright was not.

And 1-0 to 1-1 doesn't significantly hamper your ability to still have a good AB, but the Mets have struggled with this so-called situational hitting this year, and I'd rather they focused on the actual at-bat and not fringe things like if the runner is going or just making contact for a fly-ball Sac.


You're only going to have a chance to actually get a hit on a limited amount of pitches, and intentionally not swinging at one slightly hurts those chances.

[Frayed Knot]

You've now changed the argument from 'Don't Bunt' to 'Don't Take a Pitch'.
Pick one viewpoint and stick with it.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yeah he's a moving target.

...and intentionally not swinging at one slightly hurts those chances.

And increases your chance of a walk.

And extends the pitch count.

And gives you one more look.

And gives the team one more look.

People take intentionally all the time.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Is there a way to accidentally not swing at a pitch?

[Ceetar]

(Benjamin Grimm: I'm drawing a blank on who, but someone actually 'accidentally' struck out looking a couple of weeks ago. Asked for time and didn't get it)

Only because you're missing my point. I don't have a problem with taking pitches for those reasons. I have a problem with taking pitches on the off chance a batter may be running and somehow benefits from it. It seems to fly in the face of the logic that says a baserunner tends to give a batter better pitches to hit/more fastballs. So take advantage of that instead of giving it back by taking the fastball that he's throwing to give his catcher a better shot at the runner.

Edgy DC wrote: Yeah he's a moving target. ...and intentionally not swinging at one slightly hurts those chances. And increases your chance of a walk. And extends the pitch count. And gives you one more look. And gives the team one more look. People take intentionally all the time.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think all reasons for taking combine with one another.

Bunting. Mets aren't doing it.