The Starting Rotation

[bmfc1]

Two ways to look at Piniero's comments--and they aren't mutually exclusive:

If Piniero really wanted to be a Met/stay in the NL/play on the same team as Cora, then a million dollars, in context obviously, shouldn't have swayed him to do the opposite.

The Mets should have come up with the million. They had a million to take a risk on Escobar, to pay Matthews, to sign Cora, to sign Tatis, so while they were able to throw a million here and there to risks and possibly undervalued players, they could have taken a million and given it to a surer thing (unless they truly believed that Maine/Pelfrey were as good as Piniero).

One thing is clear: Harper's a hack.

[ashie62]

Frayed Knot wrote: Egg-Zactly. Harper leaves himself enough wiggle room to virtually assure that he'd be writing the exact opposite column had Piniero signed here and not started well while also asking us to buy the notion that Omar funnels all his off-season plans through the backup short-stop.

Harper may not be that far off. There is a collusion issue being debated. During a Burkhardt interview Jason Marquis seemed surprised The Mets didn't come harder

It's OK though, we have the big O

[Frayed Knot]

Except that if the Mets didn't want to go after Piniero, either because they didn't want to pay the price or because there was some sort of prior agreement not to try, then that's a completely different article.
But what Harper is doing here is to admit that, while he also had questions about Piniero being worth the price, he isn't about to let that stop him from running with a "what if" column after his first good game. Meanwhile, is there any question about how quickly he would have cited those same pre-signing questions to go with the "another bloated Minaya contract" angle on the occasion of Piniero's first bad NYM outing? He then goes on to use the Cora connection to imply - hell, to state - that the GM is in the business of funneling his interest info through the backup short-stop to the intended target even when the target is apparently a false one all along.

The more plausible explanation here is: 'hmmm, a possible NYM FA not only had a good game right just as the Mets are in the middle of a losing streak but did so right here in the Bronx during the afternoon and on my local TV station ... now what possibly could I write today's column about that would have the added benefit of me not having to leave my desk?'

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

As per Patrick Flood, Pelfrey might finally be adapting, shedding his AC/DC ways for tapping his inner Bowie en route to becoming the "real pitcher" he is, or can be.

Not everyone can do this. Some pitchers are unable to change, for whatever reasons. Stubbornness, inability, too much Waffle House, injuries, whatever. Oliver Perez comes to mind. John Maine is trying, but apparently failing, and now changing back to whatever he was doing before. If you�re a pitcher, and you can�t adapt, you�re going to burn out or fade away. But if you can turn and face the strange and change . . . Johan Santana is adept at adapting within a single game, pitch to pitch. He�ll be around for as long as his small frame can hold up. He is, as Mike Pelfrey hopes to be someday, an actual pitcher. This may be Mike Pelfrey�s greatest asset: he has shown that he is capable and willing to grow and to change. Of course, all that other stuff - arm strength, smooth mechanics, velocity, strikeouts, ground balls, control - that�s all key too. Obviously, Mike Pelfrey would not be a major league pitcher if he could not throw a baseball really, really fast. But an ability to adapt and change at the highest level, that may be the most important skill, both for �actual pitchers� and rock �n� rollers.

[Guest Edgy DC]

So, what are we working with now?

Phillies:
Dickey Tuesday
Takahashi Wednesday
Pelfrey Thursday

Brewers:
Santana Friday
And who Saturday?

I guess this isn't an issue until then, so they have a few days to chew on it.

[Benjamin Grimm]

My guess will be Misch.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: So, what are we working with now? Phillies: Dickey Tuesday Takahashi Wednesday Pelfrey Thursday Brewers: Santana Friday And who Saturday? I guess this isn't an issue until then, so they have a few days to chew on it.

I imagine Perez is always an option too.

and Valdes depending?

It's curious that they went back to Dickey instead of Valdes as they originally decided.

Is this because they saw Wakefield baffle the Phillies? And is this a good or bad thing, considering the Phillies will face knuckleballer for a second day, presumably having more of a chance to adjust, particularly to a presumably lesser version of it?

[TransMonk]

Ugh...I'm going Saturday and Sunday. A week ago I was hoping to see Pelf and Johan.

Now I get Misch and Dickey? Cripes.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I just scribbled Dickey in there. I hadn't read Valdes was scheduled to go against Philadelphia. I guess that looks like our answer.

[metirish]

Edgy DC wrote: I just scribbled Dickey in there. I hadn't read Valdes was scheduled to go against Philadelphia. I guess that looks like our answer.

It's Dickey from what I read, and that view was strengthened by Wakefield's mastery of the Phillies over the weekend.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

So it's Takahashi, Pelfrey and Santana vs. San Diego and an off-day Thursday.

Is Friday's pitcher Nieve (it'd be his "turn" if he gets one)... Or Dickey (his "day") ... or Other?

[Gwreck]

We also have an off day on the 7th, after that Marlins series. You don't mess with success and just keep the same 4 man rotation going until Niese is ready (which should be soon, I thought).

[Guest OlerudOwned]

A pretty lousy spot-starter shouldn't get a "turn" and a knuckleballer probably doesn't need extra rest, so I would hope that it's Dickey friday.

[Gwreck]

Rubin reports that Niese will be back in the rotation on Saturday. I guess that would give us this rotation - which would mean some extra rest for everyone.
(The alternative is taking Takahashi out of the rotation as Pelfrey could go again on Sunday, 6/6).

Mon 5/31 - Takahashi v. Kevin Correia
Tue 6/1 - Pelfrey v. Wade LeBlanc
Wed 6/2 - Santana v. Clayton Richard
Thu 6/3 - OFF
Fri 6/4 - R.A. Dickey v. Anibal Sanchez
Sat 6/5 - Niese v. Nate Robertson
Sun 6/6 - Takahashi v. Ricky Nolasco
Mon 6/7 - OFF
Tue 6/8 - Pelfrey v. Clayton Richard
Wed 6/9 - Santana v. Mat Latos
Thu 6/10 - Dickey v. Jon Garland
Fri 6/11 - Niese v. Jeremy Guthrie
Sat 6/12 - Takahashi v. Brian Matusz
Sun 6/13 - Pelfrey v. Brad Bergesen
Mon 6/14 - OFF

[bmfc1]

Niese today--6 IP, 2 R, 8 H, 0 BB

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=t422&t=g_box&gid=2010_05_31_syraaa_bufaaa_1

[Gwreck]

Nice job by the Buffalo 'pen there.

[bmfc1]

I'm not sure why they slotted Niese for Saturday. With two off days, they don't need him to start until 6/12. This gives Santana a week between starts. I thought that you want your best guy out there more often, not less. (Thanks for the good work, gwreck.)

[Gwreck]

Santana's got 1 extra day no matter what, with the off day on Monday. I guess they could put throw Pelfrey on Sunday, skip Takahashi and push him back to that Wednesday start instead.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

R.J. Anderson of Fangraphs grits his teeth and lauds Omar for the Takahashi "find" and sign. But what will he say once the Mets pull him from the rotation for giving up a couple of home runs?

Give Omar Minaya credit: he�s the best when it comes to signing left-handed relievers with the last name Takahashi. Last season, after the Blue Jays released him, the Mets pounced on Ken Takahashi. He would wind up throwing more than 25 innings out of the pen and generally performed well. Well, that Takahashi is gone, but the Mets added Hisanori Takahashi in his place. No, they didn�t give Hisanori the same number in order to preserve those surplus replica jerseys and it�s for the best. Hisanori has already thrown 42 innings for the Mets this season and he�s now a member of the Metropolitans� rotation. The promotion came after 26 innings in the pen; during that stretch Takahashi struck out 33 batters, allowed a single home run, and walked 14 � a total that is deceiving because five of those walks were of the intentional variety � good for a FIP under 2.7. As one would expect, Takahashi has not continued to strike out more than 11 batters per nine innings pitched as a starter. In fact his strikeout rate sat just under seven per nine entering yesterday; his walk ratio, now unburdened by occasional over managing, sits at a positively cuddle-worthy 1.69 per nine. Takahashi held a 4.21 xFIP entering his start against the Florida Marlins with the main point of conflict being his home run rate. Naturally he allowed two homers, giving him three in 21 starter innings. Even after those homers, Takahashi�s starter FIP is just north of 4.00. Takahashi very well could be one of those relievers able to translate his skill set into a worthwhile starting performance. Even if his arsenal � which features a high-80s fastball, a loopy high-60s curve, and his sinker-change-up combination of an outpitch known as the shuuto � lacks in sexiness and top-end velocity, he seems to make up for it with the ability to place each pitch wherever he wants. It�s just amazing that the same guy who gives Alex Cora a contract worth a few million and a vesting option in a non-existent market can take less money and find bargains like either Takahashi.

[Frayed Knot]

And the thing about those Marlin HRs off Takahashi, one was absolutely a wind-blown fly ball and the other one was wind-aided although might have gone out anyway.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Enough with Cora.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Indeed. In a true sky, Ross' ball dies in Bay's glove, and Paulino's shot against Frankie sails over the fence.

[Guest attgig]

Ollie's injury declared a real injury.
http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=5264796

Major League Baseball is satisfied with left-hander Oliver Perez's placement on the disabled list with right knee tendinitis and will not pursue nullifying the maneuver.

Perez had abruptly landed on the DL on Saturday to clear roster room for left-hander Jon Niese after declining to go to the minor leagues.

The Mets had Perez take an MRI on Friday at the Hospital for Special Surgery. After reviewing the medical material, MLB has declined to pursue the matter further.

[Guest attgig]

Fangraphs analyzing Santana... from more of a fantasy angle, specifically talking about his K rate


http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/johan-santanas-strikeouts/

Johan Santana�s Strikeouts by David Golebiewski - June 8, 2010 Johan Santana�s career credentials are unquestioned. The Venezuelan southpaw, a Rule V gem who won two Cy Young Awards with the Twins, has a 3.39 FIP in the majors. He�s got over a K per inning during his career, and he topped the seven WAR mark each season from 2004-2006. Santana was �merely� a four-to-five win pitcher in 2007-2008, before elbow surgery to remove bone chips ended his �09 season early and caused him to post 2.8 WAR. On the surface, the 31-year-old�s 2010 season looks like vintage Santana � in 78.1 innings, he�s got a 2.76 ERA. But the process behind those results isn�t as impressive. While the Queens version of Santana in �08 and �09 didn�t miss bats at the same rate as his halcyon days with the Twins, he still managed swinging strike rates in excess of 11 percent (8-9% MLB average) with an overall contact rate in the 77-78% range (80-81% MLB average). This season, Santana is getting swinging strikes 9.4%, with a contact rate right around the big league average. As a result, Santana�s strikeout rate has declined � from 7.9 batters per nine innings in �08 and �09 to 6.55 K/9 in 2010. His walk rate has climbed somewhat as well (2.76 BB/9, from the 2.4-2.5 BB/9 range the previous two years), though not alarmingly so. Santana�s expected FIP (xFIP), derived from a pitcher�s K�s, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, is 4.48. Now, that mark likely exaggerates the extent of Johan�s struggles. His BABIP is pretty low at .268, but Santana has generally posted lower-than average BABIP figures (.286 career). Santana gets a lot of fly balls (35.8 GB% in 2010, 37.8 GB% career), which have a lower BABIP than grounders. He induces a lot of weakly hit pop ups, with a 12.7% infield fly rate this year and a 13.2% mark for his career. Santana�s rate of stranding base runners (79.7%) is well above the 70-72% MLB average, but his career rate is 77.5%. It seems reasonable to suggest he�ll continue to have a LOB rate above the big league norm. Santana�s home run per fly ball rate (5.5%) almost assuredly will rise, though. So, Santana hasn�t performed near as well as his ERA suggests, but probably not as poorly as his xFIP indicates. His falling K rate is worth examining further, however. The velocity on Santana�s four-seam fastball has declined again this season, as has the zip on his slider. But those aren�t the root causes for the reduced number of whiffs. Take a look at Santana�s whiff percentage by pitch over the 2008-2010 seasons (data from Trip Somers� texasleaguers site): Perhaps as a result of hitters not anticipating it as much, Santana has actually gotten a higher whiff rate on his four-seamer. His two-seamer has a very low whiff percentage in 2010 after getting an above average number last season. That most glaring difference, however, is the whiff rate on the changeup. Santana�s signature change got a whiff 22.4% in �08 and 17.4% in �09, but just 13.6% this season (12.1% MLB average). That�s a substantial drop. Though his ERA is pristine, Johan Santana really isn�t in the conversation anymore when it comes to the absolute best starters in the game. That doesn�t mean he�s done being a quality pitcher, but he�s not fooling hitters with the same regularity these days.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

More than a few have posited this as the source of Johan's ever-so-slight-- or impending-- fall-off. Mainly, IIRC, the logic's been that the decreased FB velocity makes the mildly-tumbling change a lot more of a pitch to sit on, and sit on successfully, as long as you can foul off 89-90 MPH fastballs ad infinitum.

In other news...

Mike Puma wrote: According to a league spokesman, the commissioner's office is satisfied with the Mets' explanation for placing Oliver Perez on the disabled list.

Well, okay, we sort of knew that. What else?

Mick Ferocity wrote: The Mets have decided to flip-flop Jon Niese and R.A. Dickey in the rotation. Niese will now pitch tomorrow against the Padres and Dickey will start Friday in Baltimore.

Okay, well, Dickey's got fewer ligaments than most, so it figures he'd be more flexible, too. Anything else?

Sex Panther wrote: After Maine threw about 30 pitches in a simulated game yesterday at Citi Field, manager Jerry Manuel said he could envision the rigsht-hander back in the rotation soon � with Hisanori Takahashi shifted to the bullpen. "We like Takahashi as a pitcher," Manuel said before the Mets faced the Padres last night. "[but] we think we have lost something in the bullpen when he's a starter, so that's a scenario that could work if and when John Maine is healthy and we feel he's ready to be part of the rotation."

Yeah, you really do lose something in that bullpen with Takahashi starting... you're missing someone who can fill the valuable "that guy who comes in when John Maine makes abortive or otherwise terrible starts" role.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Manuel went on to say as well that "We're really missing something in the bullpen with Johan Santana in the rotation. In fact, we're also missing something on the bench when we start David Wright, and we've definitely been missing some minor league depth ever since we promoted Ike Davis."

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Really, I'd be mildly surprised if Maine doesn't wind up in the pen, sooner if not later.

[Vic Sage]

"We like Takahashi as a pitcher," Manuel said...

As opposed to what? Liking him as a dessert topping? A floor wax? A dessert topping AND a floor wax?