The Mets Make Offers

[batmagadanleadoff]

Mets " people" think that Bay the pull hitter will work just fine at CF and that Holliday the gap hitter would not...plus they think his way better with the glove.

[ashie62]

Media asking if the Mets are only making offers to appease us fans.....WTF?

http://www.newsday.com/columnists/jim-baumbach/is-image-everything-with-mets-decision-makers-1.1649134

That's just the latest I have read....

here's another

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/talks_with_jason_could_be_just_for_l3SqSUjLrpCqxuCYIieSRK[/quote:3cb0zfx7]


Appease away!

[smg58]

Holliday's OPS+ (ballpark independent) the last 4 seasons: 137, 151, 138, 139. He had a bit of a blip in 07, but has otherwise been consistent. The ballpark factors at Oakland and St. Louis (according to Baseball Reference) last year were 99 and 98, meaning both slightly favored pitchers. Citi had a 98, so Holliday's overall numbers from last year are more or less what you should expect if he came here.

Bay's OPS+ the last 4 seasons: 138, 94, 134, 134. 2007 was a lost year, but you probably know what to expect from him, which is a bit less that what you should expect from Holliday. He will hit more home runs, perhaps 10 or so more, but Holliday will make up for it with more hits and a higher OBP.

And if the cavernous gaps in left field are considered when evaluating offense, they certainly need to be considered when evaluating defense. Fangraphs has Holliday saving 23 runs relative to average over the past four seasons, while Bay cost his team 40 runs in that stretch. The Fielding Bible is more conservative, but it still has Holliday at +10 runs and Bay at -19 over that stretch. Both sites show 2006 as Bay's one positive year and Holliday's one negative year over the last four, so if if anything Holliday has gotten better while Bay has gotten worse.

Honestly, I think it's obvious who the better player is, and would make my offers accordingly.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

What will kill me is if the Mets DO get Bay at 4/$65-70M-- which, admittedly, seems doubtful-- only to see Holliday sign for $18-19M.

[Guest Edgy DC]

So, you obviously value Holliday more, but where do you place the dollar sign on the muscle. Is Holliday at $20 million per better value than Bay at $15 million per? If not, what is Bay worth at that rate?

[smg58]

So, you obviously value Holliday more, but where do you place the dollar sign on the muscle. Is Holliday at $20 million per better value than Bay at $15 million per? If not, what is Bay worth at that rate?[/quote:kmemj102]

I'd say Holliday is worth 10 more runs per year at least (leaning to the more conservative estimate of defensive value) , and going by Fangraphs calculations, 10 runs approximately equals 1 win approximately equals $4M. So if Bay will cost $15M but Holliday will cost $20M, Bay probably is a very slightly better value. I'll wager the difference in salary will be smaller than that, though, and the age difference should net Holliday at least one more year..

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I do think Holliday for 5/$95-100M is worth more than Bay for 5 years/$80M. But Bay's very livable. And honestly, practically speaking, it's not like either would be tradable at anything like those prices.

Not that I'm generally of a Post-type mindset, but I do think that the Mets may have been well-served to have made a slightly stronger initial offer-- either 5/75 or 4/70.

[metirish]

You got to think that to get Bay the Mets will need to go 5 years and bring the total to $80 at least.....Boras of course is talking Texeria money for Holliday.....

[Frayed Knot]

Holliday/Boras are probably also looking for a longer term deal.
I think that probably tilted the Mets mind towards Bay as much as anything.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Bay rejects Boston's latest offer ESPNBoston.com Jason Bay has turned down the Red Sox latest contract offer. In a story that was first reported on Foxsports.com, Bay's agent Joe Urbon said Bay was prepared to "move on" from the Red Sox after rejecting the offer. "We don't agree with their evaluation of the player," Urbon said. "Frankly, we have other offers on the table that are of greater interest to Jason." The New York Mets made Bay an offer Thursday. ESPN's Buster Olney reported the Mets offer was for four years and between $60 million and $65 million, according to sources close to negotiations. The Red Sox were not taken by surprise by the Mets' interest in Bay, a baseball source told ESPNBoston.com's Gordon Edes. They had heard New York was going to make a big push at some point. The Red Sox's last known offer to Bay was reportedly for four years and $60 million. If the Red Sox lose Bay they could turn their attention to free agent left fielder Matt Holliday. Information from ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney and ESPNBoston.com's Gordon Edes was used in this report.

[metirish]

A mystery team has entered the bidding with a five year offer.....

[metirish]

Seattle are the mystery team....did they get a huge cash infusion this off-season or what?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Shelling out seems to make sense for 'em. He's a Canadian-- BC, I believe-- so there's the local-boy thing at play. Plus, they've actually got a pretty damn good team-- with an OF defense that can more than cover for any D issues Bay may bring, and a DH slot that figures to be open once Griffey retires in a year or two-- in a West that figures to be wide-open in the next two years.

[Benjamin Grimm]

My hunch, now that Lackey is gone, is that the Mets will do what it takes to get Bay.

My prediction: Five years, $81 million. And he'll be signed within a week. (That means on or before December 21.)

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Red Sox have moved on, and not to Holliday.

Two years for Kablammeron.

[metirish]

These guys don't waste time do they?, Cam will compete with Hermida ?

[Frayed Knot]

If you get Cameron it's to play CF. Hermida is strictly a corner guy (and not a very good one at that).
The main loser here is Ellsbury.

[ashie62]

If you get Cameron it's to play CF. Hermida is strictly a corner guy (and not a very good one at that).
The main loser here is Ellsbury.[/quote:zu80qmxl]

No, Ellsbury will LF full-time

meanwhile, Bengie Molina wants THREE years..Fuck that!

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

If that's true, then Bengie Molina can suck on his neck fat.

[Frayed Knot]

If you get Cameron it's to play CF. Hermida is strictly a corner guy (and not a very good one at that).
The main loser here is Ellsbury.[/quote:2d40d1mo]

No, Ellsbury will LF full-time[/quote:2d40d1mo]

Well then Ellsbury becomes an even less valuable player than he already is.
Not that he's a bad player now - just more than a bit over-rated by some. There was a time a year or so ago in WFAN-land where NYM fans (and a few hosts as well) were just salivating about the possibility of Boston giving up Ellsbury in exchange for Beltran. Idiots!
Move him now to LF - particularly in that park where his best asset of speed is somewhat negated - and there's a serious power deficit there.

[Centerfield]

I wonder if part of this is motivated by the possibility that Ellsbury may be moved in a trade for Adrian Gonzalez.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

According to Heyman this morning, the Mets have "tweaked their offer" to Bay to include five years*, while Molina is rumored-- yeah, yeah-- to be seeking 3 yrs/20M. Molina is also rumored to have been smoking boatloads of crack.

According to both this and the Post, Minaya also plans to call Holliday today.

*Buster Olney disagrees.

[ashie62]

I'm guessing Bay or Holliday will join the flock. Molina will when the crack wears off and no other offers come.

We get the 8th inning Japanese guy..

That leaves an SP, or not, and Murphy at 1b, or not..

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

On the Mets' preferring Bay to Holliday defensively, according toKen Davidoff*:

-Want to know why the Mets think Jason Bay is a superior defender to Matt Holliday? In part, it's because of Bay's experience playing centerfield. Which is sort of odd, because Bay has played only 40 games in centerfield, and hasn't been there since 2005. Holliday has never played centerfield.

*A Newsday article for which you DON'T HAVE TO PAY! FUCKING AWESOME!

[nymr83]

someone in the Post today said the Mets preffered Bay's pull-hitting to Holliday's gap-hitting because of Citi Field. I don't know if he pulled that out of his ass or if the Mets PR machine "leaked" it as justification for not going after the better player

[Benjamin Grimm]

That's been their party line for a while now. (The gap/pull thing.) I also don't know whether it's true or if it's just a justification for going after the less expensive player.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I htink the Mets should offer Molina a three-month deal wit a series of one-month options.

[metirish]

So , what's going on here?. Maybe Bay and Molina would really rather go elsewhere?. Only one team seems to be in for them and yet nothing is signed, strange.

Edited December 18, 2009 by Guest

[Guest Edgy DC]

It's more or less the way it works every year, including the panic-madness of the tabloids. The top guys in the market hold out and the dominoes fall behind them. It'll be cool.

[Valadius]

I feel like we're going to get somebody we'll be happy with. It'll probably be Bay, but who knows.