Hot Stove 2009-2010

[metirish]

This seems a bit much

Free agent reliever Mike Gonzalez has agreed to a two-year, $12 million contract with the Orioles, SI.com has learned.

Gonzalez can earn an additional $4 million in incentives based on Rolaids points.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm waiting for a contract to have a clause regarding Schaefer points.

[duan]

and baltimore signing him means no 1st round pic for the Braves, who've managed to demonstrate BOTH the possible downsides of offering Billy Wagner arbitration in offering it to Soriano & Gonzalez

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Vaccaro of the Post hits another home run. Harper (I'm going to re-name him, Hacker) gets the Snooze back page once again to try and poke a stick at the Mets; inside his story is loaded with ambiguity.

Here's Mike:

Don�t be Bonilla-heads By MIKE VACCARO Last Updated: 9:15 AM, December 17, 2009 Posted: 3:30 AM, December 17, 2009 Humor me for a second, Mets fans. I understand that there has been little to smile about and less to feel good about the past few years when it comes to your baseball team. I recognize how miserable that Phillies-Yankees World Series was to endure, sort of like only having two channels on your TV and having to choose between �Jersey Shore� and �Brothers.� And I have listened to you stew endlessly the past few days about all the moves teams are making and all the moves the Mets aren�t making. Still, let me ask you this: If I could transport you to the beginning of May, before all the injuries, before all the banana peels, when we barely had a whiff of what was to come, and I told you that you could select one pitcher from any team in baseball and all it would cost you is around $85 million, whom would you pick? Surely, depending on your taste, you would have thrown a batch of names at me. Roy Halladay. Cliff Lee, Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Tim Lincecum. Maybe you�d go young on me, choose Josh Johnson or Zack Greinke, Adam Wainwright or Felix Hernandez. There are others. How many of you would have chosen John Lackey? Similarly, if I gave you the same option and said you could have any hitter in the game, same rules, you just have to pay him around $15 million a year for five years, whom would you pick? I don�t think I�m exaggerating when I say it�s wise to simply save the newsprint from the two paragraphs of names that would fall in front of Jason Bay. (That includes Matt Holliday, by the way, but you�d get a good dozen or so names before you ever got around to Holliday, too, I guarantee it.) And that brings me around to this point: How many times do you need to have anvils fall on your head before you take a step out of the way? Which is to say, how many times do you have to sign Kevin Appier and Bobby Bonilla before you recognize the difference between attracting the cream of a good free-agent class (see Sabathia, CC, and Teixeira, Mark) and the prettiest homecoming queens of Homely High? And that�s what the Mets would be doing here. Bay is a better player than Bonilla, and we have to assume he�s unlikely to show anyone The Bronx (or British Columbia). Lackey is two years younger than Appier was when the Mets signed him to a three-year, $30 million deal after the 2000 season, but essentially they are the same pitcher; before �01, Appier was 128-96 with one All-Star appearance and one place in the Cy Young voting (third in 1993) while Lackey is 102-71 with one All-Star and one place in the Cy Young (third in �07). It is one thing for a team with resources, such as the Mets, to muscle up for Mike Piazza or Carlos Beltran or Frankie Rodriguez, seminal players whose coveted gifts demand top dollar; it is another to throw money at players who would be second-tier free agents in other winters. Especially if signing someone this year precludes you from diving into next year�s much deeper class � which could include Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford and Beckett, among others. Several reports indicate the Mets are close to signing Bay, which might well keep angry fans at bay and provide the Mets with the illusion (if not the delusion) that they are indeed willing to flex and preen and dust off the wallet. But please do not mistake Bay for Vlad Guerrero circa 2003, a free agent the Mets should have pursued and didn�t. If anything, he is Bonilla circa 1992, whom the Mets paid like a franchise player, thereby forcing them to bypass Barry Bonds � a real one � the next year. And signing Appier in 2000 may have kept them from pursuing the likes of John Smoltz and David Wells in 2002. If the Mets truly believe Bay is worth $75 million and five years, by all means, they should sign him at once. If they�re doing it to satisfy the baying bloodhounds, then they ain�t heard nothing yet. michael.vaccaro@nypost.com

[Guest Edgy DC]

What's that? Perspective? Fire him immediately.

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

There's a lot right in the Vaccarro post, but I really doubt that the Twins will let Mauer get to free agency next year. If he does, the Mets should smash all their piggy banks, of course, but I think he'll stay a Twin. And Pujols will probably stay a Cardinal, which would make next year's free agent class a lot less attractive than it looks right now.

Not that the Mets should make some desperation move this year. Just that next year's free agent class might not be as awesome as he's making it out to be.

[metirish]

So , so true

If I could transport you to the beginning of May, before all the injuries, before all the banana peels, when we barely had a whiff of what was to come, and I told you that you could select one pitcher from any team in baseball and all it would cost you is around $85 million, whom would you pick? Surely, depending on your taste, you would have thrown a batch of names at me. Roy Halladay. Cliff Lee, Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Tim Lincecum. Maybe you�d go young on me, choose Josh Johnson or Zack Greinke, Adam Wainwright or Felix Hernandez. There are others. How many of you would have chosen John Lackey? Similarly, if I gave you the same option and said you could have any hitter in the game, same rules, you just have to pay him around $15 million a year for five years, whom would you pick? I don�t think I�m exaggerating when I say it�s wise to simply save the newsprint from the two paragraphs of names that would fall in front of Jason Bay. (That includes Matt Holliday, by the way, but you�d get a good dozen or so names before you ever got around to Holliday, too, I guarantee it.)

I might start buying the NY Post again if I start seeing more of this " fair & balanced" writing.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Vaccaro is right; it sucks to give cream-of-the-crop money to the cream of an inferior crop.

But he's not offering alternatives. Should the Mets cross their fingers and go with Fernando Martinez in left field? Give Daniel Murphy another try? Sign Mark DeRosa and put him in left?

Right now they've got nothing! If the season started now, there would be nobody standing in left field. (Don't waste your time telling me that that's not literally true. I know that!)

So they have to get someone. They should get the best available player. Among free agents, that appears to be Bay or Holliday, who looks to be more expensive than Bay.

The other possibility would be to trade for a left fielder. Are there any left fielders available on the trade market that would be better than Bay or Holliday? And if you make a trade, you're giving up players to get the guy, and if he's good, you're still paying him a lot of money.

Although I see the drawbacks, it looks to me like Bay is their best move right now.

[TransMonk]

Our friend Mark Healy is posting that Mets are in talks with Reds about Bronson Arroyo and that Molina will not be offered a 3rd year among other things.

http://www.baseballdigest.com/2009/12/17/metsreds-talk-bay-may-cost-six-years-more/

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'd prefer Aaron Harang, probably.

[TransMonk]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'd prefer Aaron Harang, probably.

I find they're very similar. Why would you prefer Harang?

Harang is 9 months younger. He will earn 12.5M in 2010 and has a club option for 2011 worth 12.75M with a 2M buyout.

Arroyo will earn 11M in 2010 and has a club option for 2011 worth 11M with a 2M buyout.

Harang ERA+ over past 3 years = 106
Arroyo ERA+ over past 3 years = 104

Arroyo has 12 more starts in that span and 11 more wins. Harang is the better K pitcher.

[HahnSolo]

Mike Francesa absolutely loves Arroyo. At least he used to have a hopeless man-crush on him when I listened more frequently.

"HE'S A WINNAH."

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

TransMonk wrote: Harang is the better K pitcher.

That's mostly it. I also think that contract makes him a slightly easier get, and the fact that he's more of a "low-sell" than Arroyo right now. He was banged up last year but they shut him down and the presumption is he'd be healthy this year. I mean, that's obviously a concern for the Mets docs to consider but both healthy I'll take Harang.

[TransMonk]

Gotcha...makes sense. Personally, I'd be happy with either.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Douchey bad career track for Arroyo.

1) Corn rows.
2) Goo-Goo Dolls covers

I think (3) has to be failing a PED test, as surely as day follows night and night follows day.

[metirish]

The Orioles signed free-agent 1B-3B Garrett Atkins according to reports

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm liking the O's. I predict they will get much "sleeper" attention this year a la the Rays in 08.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Before collapsing in July.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Depends on how often they play the MFYs that month, but yeah.

Boy have they laid down for them these last few years.

[metirish]

Several ex Mets signing with the Dodgers.


LOS ANGELES (AP) -- The Dodgers have reached preliminary agreement with free agent Jamey Carroll on a $3.85 million, two-year contract.

Carroll's agent, Jonathan Maurer, confirmed the deal Thursday, with the second baseman expected to undergo a physical in the next few days.

Maurer said the deal includes incentives up to $525,000 a year based on at least 275 plate appearances.

Carroll played the last two seasons in Cleveland, which offered him a two-year deal, along with Oakland and the Dodgers, Maurer said. The Indians were eliminated first.

Although Oakland offered more money and playing time, Maurer said Carroll wanted to play for Dodgers manager Joe Torre and coach Don Mattingly, who is from Carroll's hometown of Evansville, Ind.

The Dodgers have penciled in Blake DeWitt as the starting second baseman.

"Jamey has said he looks to partner with Blake DeWitt and form a tremendous 1-2 punch at second base to help this team get back to the playoffs," Maurer said.

Carroll could also spell Rafael Furcal at shortstop and Casey Blake at third base.

Infielders Doug Mientkiewicz and Angel Berroa, and pitcher Josh Towers were among nine players who agreed to minor league contracts.

The 36-year-old Mientkiewicz dislocated his right shoulder while sliding into second base for a double on April 16, went on the disabled list and wasn't activated by the Dodgers until Sept. 2. He was just 6 for 18 with three RBIs last season.

Berroa, who turns 32 next month, hit .148 with two RBIs in 27 at-bats for the New York Mets last season. If added to the 40-man roster, he would get a split contract calling for salaries of $600,000 in the majors and $81,000 in the minors.

Towers, a 32-year-old right-hander, had no record and a 3.38 ERA in two relief appearances for the Yankees this year. He would get $700,000 in the majors and $100,000 in minors if added to the 40-man roster.

Los Angeles also agreed to minor league contracts with right-handers Luis Ayala, Francisco Felix, Justin Miller and Juan Perez; first baseman John Lindsey; and outfielder Prentice Redman.

[nymr83]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Vaccaro is right; it sucks to give cream-of-the-crop money to the cream of an inferior crop. But he's not offering alternatives. Should the Mets cross their fingers and go with Fernando Martinez in left field? Give Daniel Murphy another try? Sign Mark DeRosa and put him in left? Right now they've got nothing! If the season started now, there would be nobody standing in left field. (Don't waste your time telling me that that's not literally true. I know that!) So they have to get someone. They should get the best available player. Among free agents, that appears to be Bay or Holliday, who looks to be more expensive than Bay. The other possibility would be to trade for a left fielder. Are there any left fielders available on the trade market that would be better than Bay or Holliday? And if you make a trade, you're giving up players to get the guy, and if he's good, you're still paying him a lot of money. Although I see the drawbacks, it looks to me like Bay is their best move right now.

if the Mets believe next year's free agent crop will be significantly better than this year perhaps they should see who the best player they can sign to a one year deal is, even if they have to pay extra for that one year, so that they don't miss ourt next year


Vaccaro might be the best of the NY baseball writers right now

[metirish]

Nick Johnson back to the MFY's at effectively the same money as Matsui went to the Angels for...$1 million less to get Johnson. If the primary role for Johnson is going to be DH then wouldn't you be better going with Matsui?

Johnson can of course play 1b but unless Texeria gets injured he figures to play just about every game there....

[Guest Edgy DC]

Good move by the Yanks. Get a DH and get some Teixiera insurance.

Matsui is arguably better. But with that awesome OBP, at his stage in his career, and protected from having to take the field and expose his thigh bones, Johnson's arguably the better hitter today and definitely better tomorrow than Matsui.

[smg58]

And Yankeee Stadium could make Johnson's power numbers reappear in a hurry.

[Guest attgig]

Nymr83 wrote: Benjamin Grimm wrote: Vaccaro is right; it sucks to give cream-of-the-crop money to the cream of an inferior crop. But he's not offering alternatives. Should the Mets cross their fingers and go with Fernando Martinez in left field? Give Daniel Murphy another try? Sign Mark DeRosa and put him in left? Right now they've got nothing! If the season started now, there would be nobody standing in left field. (Don't waste your time telling me that that's not literally true. I know that!) Vaccaro might be the best of the NY baseball writers right now

Vaccaro is absolutely right.

as for LF this year, is Pagan really that horrible of an option? we could always bring moises alou back! Honestly, I'm still waiting, and a bit afraid of the old foggie that's way past his prime that Omar likes to sign every single year. my money is on vlad, but we'll see.

[Guest Edgy DC]

No, he's not that horrible an option, but somewhere --- among first, second, left, right, and catcher --- folks are looking for an option that's more of a lock.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Johnson is also an option SOMEWHERE in the field for a game or two or twenty. Matsui isn't.

[Guest attgig]

Edgy DC wrote: No, he's not that horrible an option, but somewhere --- among first, second, left, right, and catcher --- folks are looking for an option that's more of a lock.

of the questionmarks we have offensively, I think the biggest is on first base....not left field. it just happens that the best available FA's are in LF. imo, i don't think it's good to have the market dictate who we go after, and our needs.


Catcher - we know what's out there, and we're waiting on molina. if we don't get molina, i don't think barajas or anyone else is that much of a dropoff.
2b - Castillo is more than just an option. he's better than 08 campaign, and his career numbers are closer to 09. i think we know what we're getting, and although there's no power, it's plenty.
RF - definitely a wildcard. Frenchy's got potential for good power and ave, but he could be a sub700 ops hitter like he was before atl gave up on him.
LF - Pagan's 09 was the first time he was playing close to everyday. he's athletic enough, and with good guys around him, I think he can grow into a full time lf'er.
1b - I think we need to upgrade murphy more than anyone else. he's shown nothing but being inconsistent.



honestly, from those 5 positions, 1b, rf, and lf are the only ones to be somewhat concerned about. and 1b is what concerns me the most.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Rightfield concerns me most. I don't know that Murphy will progress to become an average (or better) major league firstbaseman, but I feel good that he's got enough Magadanesque skills that he won't have a disastrous hitting year.

I won a bet on Francoeur. (Sort of. I put my lunchbox down and everybody backed off.) But I know he can dig a deep hole in right, and he did for two years with the Braves. So yeah, my desire to pursue leftfielders is more about my worries about right.

I'm also good with getting a hotshot who can swing from first to the outfield better 'n' Murphy. I have this strange thought that Murphy will go to Florida in exchange for pitching.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

As per Larry Stone of the Seattle Times The Cubs seem to finally be shedding Bradley and his albatross bucks ($21M over next 2 years)... to Seattle for Carlos Silva ($24M over next 2)?

I think Chicago's doing it wrong.