Hot Stove 2009-2010

[Guest Edgy DC]

Maybe, but I'm still curious to see how this shakes out.

He's got an .890 OPS in the minors, which is pretty shocking for a guy who has never gotten a chance to stick. Must be a rotten-assed fielder.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Wagner may have strongly hinted that he wouldn't accept arbitration, but during that initial period when players can start talking to other clubs, he might have found that the market for his services was less than the expected arbitration award. So despite his original intent, he may have ended up accepting anyway.

We can see now that it wouldn't have worked out that way (given the deal he's signing with Atlanta) but we couldn't have been sure of that then. In fact, we still can't be sure of it, because the Braves may not have made the same offer if signing Wagner would have cost them the draft picks.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy DC wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: The deal, btw, is for one year plus a vesting option. VEST!

According to a couple of reports, the option automatically vests if he finishes 50 games. Which is what both parties want.

It makes more of the sense than, say, sticking a 2M option into a backup infielder's contract that vests if he happens to start 80 games... which means that Reyes has injured or Castillo has exploded, and Omar hasn't found a reasonable alternative. For this stroke of organizational misfortune/neglect, he gets an extra year. This is more what ONE party wants.

Vests can be quite the snazzy wardrobe choice when used properly (injury or age hedges, motivation for a proven star).

Edited December 2, 2009 by Guest

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Wagner may have strongly hinted that he wouldn't accept arbitration, but during that initial period when players can start talking to other clubs, he might have found that the market for his services was less than the expected arbitration award. So despite his original intent, he may have ended up accepting anyway.

If anything, he was strongly hinting the other way. Arb offers tend to depress the market for players-- at least Type As-- since it adds a cost for the signing team beyond the financial one. Which is why Wagner had Bean quack about retirement-- he was playing poker with Boston.

Benjamin Grimm wrote: We can see now that it wouldn't have worked out that way (given the deal he's signing with Atlanta) but we couldn't have been sure of that then. In fact, we still can't be sure of it, because the Braves may not have made the same offer if signing Wagner would have cost them the draft picks.

He will cost them a pick-- Boston offered him arbitration. (The thinking is that Soriano and Gonzalez signing elsewhere will more than make up for it, I'm thinking.)

[Benjamin Grimm]

Games finished is an interesting concept to build a contract clause around. In theory, anyway, Wagner can insure a "game finished" by throwing a gopher ball any time he pitches in a tie game in the ninth inning of a road game. Of course, if he does this too many times, he'll stop getting such opportunities.

But if he's at 49 GF in late September, and such an opportunity arises, he can essentially get $6 million or so by intentionally losing a game.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Some men hunt for sport
Others hunt for food
The one thing that I'm hiunting for
Is an outfit that looks good

See...my... Vest, see my vest
Made from real gorilla chest
See this sweater? There's no better
Than authentic Irish Setter
See this hat, 'twas my cat
My evening wear, vampire bat
These white slippers are albino African endangered rhino
Grizzly bear underwear
Turtle's necks, I've got my share
Beret of poodle on my noodle it shall rest
Try my red robin suit, it comes one breast or two
See my vest, see my vest, see my vest

Like my loafers? Former gophers
It was that or skin my chauffeurs,
But a greyhound fur tuxedo would be best

So let's prepare these dogs,
Kill two for matching clogs!
See my vest, see my vest,
Oh please, won't you see my vest?

(I really like the vest!)

[Centerfield]

Wagner was clear that he did not want to be offered arbitration because he knew it would hurt his value. In saying so, he was making it clear that he had no plans to accept arbitration.

I realize offering it to him is a risk, because he may still turn around and accept it. And if that was the downside, having a reasonably priced (given his injury) closer signed for one year wouldn't have been the worst thing. If nothing else, we could turn him around and trade him to another club.

We do know that he wouldn't have accepted, since Boston offered it, Wagner walked, and now the Sox get the picks the Mets would have gotten.

[metirish]

My only consolation is that Boston are horrible in the draft.....their picks never amount to anything.....

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

HA!

[G-Fafif]

Just as Schneider grew up a Phillies fan...

Schneider attended Northampton High School outside Allentown, Pa., and he knows the Phillies well. "I grew up a fan," Schneider said. "All my friends and family are still diehard Phillies fans, so it's good to be on that side again. It's a good place to be the next two years."

...Wagner has always loved the Braves.

Calling himself a lifelong Braves fan who grew up watching the team on TBS, Wagner said it's always been his goal to pitch for Atlanta. The deal came together quickly after Wren, manager Bobby Cox and pitching coach Roger McDowell flew to Wagner's rural Virginia home to make their pitch in person. ''I grew up loving Dale Murphy. I remember Bob Horner hitting four home runs in a game,'' Wagner said. ''They have such a great tradition of winning and competing and great guys. I wanted to be a part of that. I'm excited about the opportunity. They'll get the best I have to offer.''

It was nice of them to stop by anyway.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Billy Wagner wrote: I remember Bob Horner hitting four home runs in a game.

Ha! They lost anyway.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL198607060.shtml

[G-Fafif]

Edgy DC wrote: I remember Bob Horner hitting four home runs in a game. Ha! They lost anyway. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL198607060.shtml

Young Billy Wagner was quoted in the Journal-Constitution that day saying Zane Smith "honestly has got to step up and know that we've just used every guy in the bullpen the night before. He can't come in and come out there and decide that he doesn't have it today, and so be it."

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

I'd love for Carter and Lora to prove me wrong, but as of right now (and as it did when it happened), the Wagner trade looks like a really short-sighted move. Time will tell, etc, but I'm still a little angry right now.

[duan]

Centerfield wrote: We do know that he wouldn't have accepted, since Boston offered it, Wagner walked, and now the Sox get the picks the Mets would have gotten.

well not necessarily since (and this was my point about having signed k-rod last year we should also have gone for Derek Lowe and whomever else was a type A) The Braves may sign another Type A free Agent. We'd still get the sandwich pick, but not the first round one.

Also lets not forget that there are 15 teams that he could have signed for where the 1st round pick wouldn't be offered either.

I can stand over saving the 3.5 million as a legitimate call - a safety first one all right but a legitimate call.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Plus it got that piece of shit off my team as soon as possible, a plus in my book.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Phils are fixed on Polanco-- Type A NOT offered arb by the Tiggers-- to fill their third base hole, as per usual suspects Rosenthal, Stark and WEEI... scuttlebutt has length of the deal at 2-3 years, at 5-6M per.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Have to say, I never imagined that Placido Polanco would be only a small-bit worse than Scott Rolen since they were traded for each other. Not like they are comparable players, just that, I thought Polanco was just an insect. He's one of those guys who gets better every time he gets traded.

[metirish]

Omar on the draft picks and such

You do think about that at this time, but we�re pleased the way the trade went for us,� Minaya said. �We got some prospects. Having Frankie Rodriguez this year, to offer Billy arbitration would�ve been dangerous for us. It�s hard to predict the market in August.�

[ashie62]

I prefer a cape over a vest

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

No foolin'. But Polanco's always been good-to-great defensively whether at 2nd or 3rd, it seems. And he's been a pretty consistent 3-WAR guy for the Tigers, and a good bit before that, too, whenever he's played semi-regularly. I don't remember the Phils using him that much at 3rd before, but I'd think he'd be an upgrade over non-performance-spiking Pedro Feliz.

The Phils FO knows value.

[MFS62]

As per Jon Heyman, The Mets are looking to get 2 or 3 vets at 5-7mill contracts. Among the names are
Benjie Molina
Randy Wolf
Jason Marquis
Joel Pinero
Mike Cameron
Xavier Nady

I don't think Wolf and Marquis will sign for less than $10 mil. Cameron and Nady probably for less. And I don't want Molina for more than one year, if at all. His GIDP and OBP numbers are frightening.
Later

[duan]

Nady would be a fun fit, can play any corner but 3rd (he has actually played it just not very often) and is platoonable to allow us to keep getting murphy reps if he deserves them. However, if you're telling me that he costs 7*3 years I go you gotta do better then that.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Phils are fixed on Polanco-- Type A NOT offered arb by the Tiggers-- to fill their third base hole, as per usual suspects Rosenthal, Stark and WEEI... scuttlebutt has length of the deal at 2-3 years, at 5-6M per.

As per Starks, Heyman, and MLB.com sources, this is a done deal for 3 yrs/$18 million, pending a physical.

In other news, I would give up MY entire legendary porn collection to ensure that this here from Patrick Newman @ NPB Tracker is meaningless.

[ashie62]

Doesn't Matsui look like Moe from the Three Stooges

Beyond that..got any Traci Lords??

[smg58]

I was kind of worried that Polanco would get less per year than Castillo. He'll lose some value at third base, and his age will be an issue by the end of the deal, but he's still an outstanding defender who probably got unlucky at the plate last year.

[smg58]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/valuing-the-draft-part-one/

An interesting article on the value of draft picks above their cost. Based on the author's estimates, the draft picks the Red Sox obtained are worth $8M total on average (with obviously huge error bars; the Sox could get two hall-of-famers, or they could get two career minor leaguers). The Mets saved nearly half of that in salary owed to a guy whose on-field performance no longer benefited them. A quality reserve making the league minimum over a few years could make up the difference, and Carter has enough upside to suggest that's possible.

[Guest Edgy DC]

That's my kind of analysis.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Braves also signing Takashi Saito. 1 year deal, $3 mills.

I'd have gone for summa that action.

[Guest attgig]

I hope gonzalez and soriano both accept arbitration, and they're stuck with 4 pen guys that they have to pay 35 mil to.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think Mike Silva speaks some truth here:

http://nybaseballdigest.com/?p=18493