Go Get Adrian Gonzalez - First Base 2010

[Centerfield]

The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that the Mets #1 priority this year should be Adrian Gonzalez. He is better than all of the free agents out there. He is the most complete player among those that are available, and those rumored to be available. And he could not fit any better into the Mets' needs.

Of course, San Diego is going to have something to say about it...but between Niese, Fernando Martinez, Mejia, Maine, Ike Davis, Murphy, and even Mike Pelfrey, I think there is certainly enough young talent to get this deal done. Now I'm not saying we should trade all these guys for Gonzalez, but a package made up of a couple of these guys should be enough to beat what Boston was rumored to be offering this past summer. Some of these young guys are not expected to make significant contributions in 2010, and each of them represents a need that can be more easily replaced through free agency than Adrian Gonzalez.

Sure, you'll have to pay more to replace John Maine with Jason Marquis, but you're going to be saving a hell of a lot on your reasonably priced slugging first baseman, who will be under control for the next 3 years.

[metirish]

I was looking to see what his contract is....is this true becasue if it is then it's very cheap....

from Heyman May 27th

He is 27, a superstar and makes only $3 million this year and $4.75 million next year with a ridiculous $5.5 million club option for 2011.

So it wouldn't be a salary dump for the Padres but a trade for talent....major league ready and prospects....I imagine they could get some haul for him...plus they have a new GM

[soupcan]

I just don't understand why San Diego is even entertaining offers for him.

They've got him for 2 more years at something like $10 mil (total). He's a local boy, grew up in San Diego and is very involved in the community.

If they're bent on getting something for him rather than try to resign him (again - 2 years from now), keep him for 2010 and then trade him.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Ken Rosenthal says:

No player is untouchable, so the Padres might indeed trade first baseman Adrian Gonzalez if they receive a knockout offer.

But the Red Sox, the team with the most reported interest in Gonzalez, probably will need to offer major-league pieces to entice the Padres.

And really, what is the Pads' rush?

Gonzalez is a 40-homer man, Gold Glove-caliber first baseman and Mexican-American native of San Diego. Perhaps best of all from the Padres' low-revenue perspective, he is incredibly affordable at $4.75 million next season and $5.7 million the year after.

Of course, the Red Sox want Gonzalez. Twenty-eight other teams probably do as well. But the Sox thinned their list of trade candidates when they sent right-hander Justin Masterson and left-hander Nick Hagadone to the Indians in the Victor Martinez trade.

First baseman Lars Anderson, once considered a top prospect, had a .673 OPS at Triple-A last season. Right-hander Michael Bowden is not considered an elite talent by most clubs. Most of the Sox's better young players are either in the majors (Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz) or below Double-A, increasing the degree of difficulty for a Gonzalez deal.

"I don't see how Boston does it," one rival executive says.

Regardless, the Padres should be more open to trading closer Heath Bell, who also will be relatively inexpensive next season but belongs to that volatile species known as "reliever." Third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff also is expendable -- Kyle Blanks can take over in left field, with Chase Headley moving to third.

Gonzalez, 27, is all but irreplaceable, particularly for a team that finished last season on a 37-25 roll despite losing right-hander Chris Young to a shoulder injury and trading right-hander Jake Peavy to the White Sox.

Three NL West teams -- the Dodgers, Rockies and Giants -- finished with 88 or more wins. The Divorce Court Dodgers are at least a temporary mess, the Rockies forever streaky, the Giants impotent offensively. Realistically, the Padres might not pass any of them. But they would at least stand a chance of competing if they started the season with Gonzalez, placating their fans.

GM Jed Hoyer's predecessor, Kevin Towers, obtained seven pitchers in separate trades for Peavy and outfielder Scott Hairston, helping replenish the team's farm system. Clearly, the Padres need to acquire more young talent. But they could continue that process by moving Bell and Kouzmanoff, both of whom could fit with the National League champion Phillies, among other clubs.

The only way the Padres should move Gonzalez this winter is if they receive an absolutely killer package in return.[/quote:nsvfeiss]

[smg58]

It would be a horrible move on the Padres' part. They were very good the last two months of the season, they have a couple of promising young players, and they've freed up enough money to be buyers not sellers. Plus Gonzo's salary is $13M over three years, and the Padres would lose more than that in attendance if they send their fans the worst possible message by dealing him.

That being said, you do have to ask what the price is, don't you?

[Guest Edgy DC]

It's just the nature of our messed-up system that the game is necessarily played differently for some teams. Our players are potential cogs in the machine. Some other teams' players are chips to be cashed in when the market is peaking. It's awful but it's the reality.

I denfintely want Kouzmanoff --- and Zieveroff and Jentrieoff and the rest of the Russian '69 Mets.

[MFS62]

I have a feeling that because of the economy, we may see many head-scratching moves this winter, that don't, or barely, make baseball sense.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think we've been seeing them 20 years. Fifteen, anyhow.

[metirish]

It's the same economy as last year as far as baseball is concerned....

[Benjamin Grimm]

On November 5, Marty Noble had this to say about first base in 2010:

One option the Mets are considering is to...

Sign Glaus, a right-handed power hitter, to a conditional contract and have him available to share first base with Murphy and provide power off the bench. That would all but eliminate Delgado from the Mets' thoughts. But for now, the club is considering offering Delgado a conditional contract.

[Fman99]

He's also shown that he can hit for power in a cavern of a home ballpark, a claim that not one single 2009 Met can make. (sigh)

[Guest Edgy DC]

As the HomeMets outslugged and outhomered the RoadMets, I don't think that's really a worthwhile concern.

The problem with homers was the homer hittters that got hurt, and the one that stopped hitting homers anywhere.

[HahnSolo]

How about a phone call to DC to see what it would take to bring Adam Dunn up here? Last year of a 2-year deal, and they'll probably be looking to unload him by the deadline anyway.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The problem with homers was the homer hittters that got hurt, and the one that stopped hitting homers anywhere.[/quote:68dkeyt2]

David Wright hit only 5 homers at Citi Field in 2009.

He also hit only five homers in road games. (One each in Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Houston and two in Philadelphia.)

If he had hit his usual 12 to 15 or so on the road, along with the 5 at home, I'd be move convinced that Citi Field was the problem.

Other Mets:
Beltran: 7 road homers, 3 at Citi.

Murphy: 5 on the road, and 7 at Citi.

Sheffield: 5 and 5.

Francoeur: 6 (road) 4 (Citi)

Tatis: 3 (road), 5 (Citi)

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

It would be a horrible move on the Padres' part. They were very good the last two months of the season, they have a couple of promising young players, and they've freed up enough money to be buyers not sellers. Plus Gonzo's salary is $13M over three years, and the Padres would lose more than that in attendance if they send their fans the worst possible message by dealing him.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't either. I would think, for a player like Gonzalez, you'd need to get at least one established player who's not carrying a huge contract.

The Mets have four such players that I can think of: Maine, Wright, Pelfrey, and Reyes.

Maine and Reyes have lower trade value right now because of their injuries. And so do Wright and Pelfrey, because of the seasons that they just had.

[metirish]

To sum up , he will not be our first baseman .

[Centerfield]

I think it's far too simplistic to say that.

The reports I've been reading are that the Padres are strapped for cash, and that they cannot build a team around Gonzalez that is a legitimate contender. That is why they dumped Jake Peavy. If they really were serious about a run, you'd think they'd keep their ace.

Gonzalez, for them, is a diminishing product. He is their's for the next 324 games. Each game he plays decreases his value. If they keep him for the year, no one will want to give up anything for value unless he agrees to sign an extension. Plus, he could have an off year or get hurt.

I think there is a very good chance he will be moved this winter, when his value is at its highest. And if the Red Sox package of Bucholz etc. was in the ballpark, I think the Mets can match or beat that.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm curious... Those of you who follow out-of-town teams more closely than I do:

What do you think of the Troy Glaus possibility? Of him platooning with Daniel Murphy for 2010 at first base?

[metirish]

I think it's far too simplistic to say that.

The reports I've been reading are that the Padres are strapped for cash, and that they cannot build a team around Gonzalez that is a legitimate contender. That is why they dumped Jake Peavy. If they really were serious about a run, you'd think they'd keep their ace.

Gonzalez, for them, is a diminishing product. He is their's for the next 324 games. Each game he plays decreases his value. If they keep him for the year, no one will want to give up anything for value unless he agrees to sign an extension. Plus, he could have an off year or get hurt.

I think there is a very good chance he will be moved this winter, when his value is at its highest. And if the Red Sox package of Bucholz etc. was in the ballpark, I think the Mets can match or beat that.[/quote:1so7vofg]


This guy from the San Diego Tribune tends to agree with you

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2009/nov/09/gonzalez-might-put-cash-strapped-padres-in-a-bind/

[Benjamin Grimm]

No one would mention Carlos Delgado or Daniel Murphy if the Mets were to acquire Gonzalez. He would provide Delgado's power and the best defense at first base since John Olerud. But the Mets also know how important Gonzalez is to the Padres franchise. A native of San Diego, he is their David Wright. Unless the Mets could pull off another Johan Santana swindle, I don't believe they have the personnel to trade for Gonzalez without creating other voids. He would be a perfect fit, though.[/quote:1ub6i035]

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I think it's far too simplistic to say that.

The reports I've been reading are that the Padres are strapped for cash, and that they cannot build a team around Gonzalez that is a legitimate contender. That is why they dumped Jake Peavy. If they really were serious about a run, you'd think they'd keep their ace.

[Guest Edgy DC]

They might mention the players the Mets give up for him.

[metirish]

A few reasons why he might be traded according to the writer from the San Diego Tribune

There are signs that it will be sooner than later:

�Gonzalez was conspicuously absent from the brochure the Padres mailed to prospective season-ticket buyers at the end of the season.

�The club has not contacted John Boggs, Gonzalez's agent, to discuss what it might take to get the first baseman to commit to a long-term contract to remain in San Diego.

�And Moorad recently said there will not be any changes made to the dimensions of Petco Park, which is unfriendly to left-handed power hitters. Although Gonzalez can also drive the ball to left, he hit a major-league-leading 28 homers on the road this season compared with 12 at home.

[Frayed Knot]

The other thing Sandy Eggo might be doing is thinking it's the best time to sell high on Gonzalez. Always a good prospect - he was the #1 overall pick by Florida in 2000 - it still took him a couple years and 3 organizations before he broke through.
In 2009, probably on account of being more or less naked in the SD lineup, his walks took a ridiculous jump from 65-75/yr to a whopping 119 and his OBA a like-wise leap from .350-ish to .407. At the same time his slugging also went up by ~ 50 points while his Ks plummeted. Now he was 27 and hopefully in his prime although jumps like those are not always repeated.

As cheap as he is locked in over the next few years, it seems silly to me NOT to keep him as someone to go along with the young'uns you got for Peavy and the others - but, if they think they can exact a huge price for him, maybe they'll deal him and hope that the incoming booty matures along with last year's #2 overall pick (Dustin Ackley - CF from UNC) to anchor a competitive team in 2-3 years.

[ashie62]

Gonzalez will bring a haul now..I'm not sure the Mets have starters better than Buchholz to offer..

If the Mets want him bad enough I'm sure they would bid to the point of overpaying..

FMart, Ike Davis, any starter not named Santana and Edgy's DiGiorno Limited Edition Comic book..(with Edgy's permission of course) for Gonzalez