Standings, 2009

May 10, 2009

Sole possession, babies!

Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB
New York	17	13	.567	---	---
Florida	17	15	.531	1.0	1.0
Philadelphia	15	14	.517	1.5	2.0
Atlanta	15	16	.484	2.5	5.0
Washington	10	19	.345	6.5	21.0

May 10, 2009

Can you imagine being 21 games out on May 10? Amazing.

metirish · May 11, 2009

What a difference a week and a seven game winning streak makes.

Fman99 · May 11, 2009

Boyoyoyoyoing!

May 11, 2009

What is Net GB?

Frayed Knot · May 11, 2009

And to think, it's only been a week since the phone lines were burning up to fire the manager, deport the GM, shoot the owners, and replace most of the roster.

Of course all that resumes with a loss tonight.

]What is Net GB?

The sum of games behind all teams in front of you.
For the Nats it means the 4.5 they trail the Braves + the 5 behind Philly + 5.5 in back of the Marlins in addition to the 6.5 behind us.
It acknowledges the fact that being 'X' number of games out of first is a very different thing depending on whether you're in 2nd place or if you also have to hurdle several teams in between.

Willets Point · May 11, 2009

="metsguyinmichigan":3c7i4phm]Can you imagine being 21 games out on May 10? Amazing.[/quote:3c7i4phm]

I'm sure as Mets fans that there were seasons when we need not imagine. But these are the good years which I for one am grateful.

themetfairy
May 11 2009 11:14 AM

="Willets Point":2ioo2dnz]

="metsguyinmichigan":2ioo2dnz]Can you imagine being 21 games out on May 10? Amazing.[/quote:2ioo2dnz]

I'm sure as Mets fans that there were seasons when we need not imagine. But these are the good years which I for one am grateful.[/quote:2ioo2dnz]

John Cougar Lunchbucket
May 11 2009 11:17 AM

Well this thread is sure to doom us now.

Ceetar
May 11 2009 04:19 PM

Still think they need to fire Manuel, but at least the Mets are too good for him to bring them down.

Farmer Ted
May 15 2009 10:12 AM

Up two games this morning. Won't be comfy until that number has a zero after it.

Frayed Knot
May 15 2009 11:44 AM

NL Central doing OK for itself these days.

The first bit of inter-league (booo) is ready to start in about a week and, if things continue as they have for the previous four seasons, the NL records will start getting bogged down in more losses than wins. So today, while things are still balanced, was the first time I shot a glance on how the divisions were faring vs each other.

EAST: 8 games below .500 - virtually all of it due to Washington's league worst record

CENTRAL: +18 - Pittsburgh's losing streak puts them 6 games under, but somehow Houston is just 2 games under and the other four are within a half-game of each other playing .590-.600 ball
No longer the Comedy Central Division

WEST: -10 - LA is good and the Giants are keeping their heads above water. But the other three are awful

Edgy DC
May 23 2009 09:51 PM

I had noticed Florida fading (kinda sad), but I hadn't noticed Atlanta sneaking into the picture. I should've, considering how they played us last time in Flushing.

Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	23	18	.561	--	--	--
New York	23	19	.548	0.5	0.5	121
Atlanta	22	20	.524	1.5	2.5	120
Florida	19	25	.432	5.5	14.5	115
Washington	12	30	.286	11.5	38.5	110

Ceetar
May 23 2009 10:06 PM

="Edgy DC":3tj6rvgg]I had noticed Florida fading (kinda sad), but I hadn't noticed Atlanta sneaking into the picture. I should've, considering how they played us last time in Flushing.[/quote:3tj6rvgg]

I picked the Braves over and the Phillies under before the season. Just judging them on how they looked on SNY when they played us? the Braves are the better team.

Edgy DC
May 25 2009 09:04 PM

Folks have been standing still the last two days, except Florida.

Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	24	19	.558	--	--	--
New York	24	20	.545	0.5	0.5	119
Atlanta	23	21	.523	1.5	2.5	118
Florida	21	25	.457	4.5	10.5	115
Washington	13	31	.295	11.5	39.5	110

Edgy DC
May 27 2009 09:57 PM

Ahem.

Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
New York	26	20	.565	---	---	---
Philadelphia	25	20	.556	0.5	0.5	117
Atlanta	23	22	.511	2.5	4.5	115
Florida	22	26	.458	5.0	12.0	111
Washington	13	33	.283	13.0	41.0	104

Elsewhere, we still have the same record as Cincinnati, and the Blue Jays are playing like chumps and better stop.

Benjamin Grimm
May 28 2009 05:19 AM

Given all the struggles the Mets have had this season, the injuries and that daunting road trip, first place on May 28, and six games above .500 is awfully darn good.

Hopefully they beat up on the Pirates and Nationals on the next road trip and start opening up a bit of a lead.

Triple Dee
May 28 2009 05:36 AM

By the same token, the Phils are within 0.5 game without a starting pitcher with an era <4.50 (QS standard) and a closer with a serious case of the yips.

I'll be very surprised if the NL WC comes from the East.

Triple Dee
May 28 2009 05:49 AM

="Edgy DC":31o8fwpe]
...., and the Blue Jays are playing like chumps and better stop.[/quote:31o8fwpe]

Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Mets. If they rapidly fall out of contention, Halliday may be put on the trading bloc(k). There's no way he'll be traded to the Red Sox or Yanquis, which is likely to make the Phils the number one suitors.

Ceetar
May 28 2009 06:37 AM

Getting Johan didn't work for a better Mets team last year. Even if the Phillies could pull of Halladay (they can't), it wouldn't be enough. There issues run a lot deeper than one SP can fix.

soupcan
May 28 2009 06:45 AM

="Triple Dee":16wgdhxn]Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Mets. If they rapidly fall out of contention, Halliday may be put on the trading bloc(k). There's no way he'll be traded to the Red Sox or Yanquis, which is likely to make the Phils the number one suitors.[/quote:16wgdhxn]

Well, I'm certain Fman would agree with me when I say that unhealthy BJs are just bad news all-around, but even if the Phils are the most likely suitor that doesn't necessarily mean Halliday is theirs for the taking. If I'm the BJs I'm looking for a lot for Roy. Do the Phillies have what it would take? I would think it would take young, proven ML talent at least.

Benjamin Grimm
May 28 2009 06:52 AM

And remember, it was the White Sox who almost closed a deal for Peavy. They seem to be big players in the starting pitcher market.

If I'm shopping a starting pitcher, they'd be among the first teams I'd call.

Fman99
May 28 2009 06:56 AM

="Triple Dee"]

="Edgy DC"]
...., and the Blue Jays are playing like chumps and better stop.

Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Mets.

Too much teeth?

Triple Dee
May 28 2009 08:39 AM

(My apologies for hijacking the Standings thread, maybe these posts should be moved to another thread.)

="soupcan":24grmrc0]
but even if the Phils are the most likely suitor that doesn't necessarily mean Halliday is theirs for the taking. If I'm the BJs I'm looking for a lot for Roy. Do the Phillies have what it would take? I would think it would take young, proven ML talent at least.
[/quote:24grmrc0]

You're right, presently they probably don't have enough for Halliday. Their top pitching prospect, Carlos Carrasco is having a pretty bad time in AAA. They have Kyle Drabek (presumably Doug's son?) who is highly regarded but he's playing A ball . Other than they have some decent OF which the BJs don't need.

="BG":24grmrc0]
And remember, it was the White Sox who almost closed a deal for Peavy. They seem to be big players in the starting pitcher market.
[/quote:24grmrc0]
The ChiSox probably need starting pitching help now. I suspect by the time the BJ's would want to deal Halliday, they'll be as far out as they are.

="Fman99":24grmrc0]
Too much teeth?
[/quote:24grmrc0]
Gutter.

smg58
May 28 2009 01:35 PM

="Triple Dee":20e91cie]Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Phils. If they rapidly fall out of contention, Halliday may be put on the trading bloc(k). There's no way he'll be traded to the Red Sox or Yanquis, which is likely to make the Mets the number one suitors.[/quote:20e91cie]

There, that's better.

In all seriousness, if Halladay and/or Cliff Lee go on the block we can't cry poverty.

Edgy DC
Jun 02 2009 02:13 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	29	20	.592	---	---	---
New York	28	22	.560	1.5	1.5	112
Atlanta	25	25	.500	4.5	7.5	109
Florida	24	28	.462	6.5	13.5	106
Washington	13	36	.265	16	51.5	98

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 08 2009 04:49 AM

I know we all pretend to be disinterested in the Wild Card (until, of course, it's the last weekend of the season and the division has been clinched and we desperately want the Wild Card) but the Mets are currently in a virtual tie for the WC lead with St. Louis. (They're actually .001 ahead.)

Just thought I'd mention it.

Frayed Knot
Jun 08 2009 07:43 AM

It helps that whilst Met fans wuz crying over the sweep in Pittsburgh and deeming barely acceptable their 2 of 3 over the Nats (and ranting about how good teams "don't let that happen", etc) the Cards were getting swept by the Rockies.

Frayed Knot
Jun 08 2009 03:00 PM

BTW, that Cards-Rox series which I assumed was a 3-game sweep, wasn't.
It was actually a 4-game series with the getaway game today ... and now it's a 4-game sweep by the Rockies. And in StL too.

Edgy DC
Jun 08 2009 07:32 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	33	22	.600	---	---	---
New York	30	25	.545	3.0	3.0	105
Atlanta	27	28	.491	6.0	9.0	102
Florida	27	31	.466	7.5	13.5	99
Washington	15	40	.273	18.0	55.5	90

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
New York	30	25	.545	---	---	---
St. Louis	31	27	.534	0.5	0.5	105
San Francisco	29	26	.527	1.0	1.5	106
Chicago	28	26	.519	1.5	3.0	106
Cincinnati	29	27	.518	1.5	3.0	105
Atlanta	27	28	.491	3.0	10.5	104
Florida	27	31	.466	4.5	19.0	101
Pttsburgh	26	30	.464	4.5	19.0	102
San Diego	26	30	.464	4.5	19.0	102
Houston	25	30	.455	5.0	24.0	102
Arizona	25	32	.439	6.0	34.0	101
Colorado	25	32	.439	6.0	34.0	101
Washington	15	40	.273	15.0	142.0	92

Edgy DC
Jun 15 2009 08:38 PM

Florida is making another small move in the east, while the Mets have relinquished the wild card for now.

Colrado has absolutely exploded, knocking a ton of net games back off as they move from next to last to the middle of the pack.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	36	25	.590	---	---	---
New York	32	29	.525	4.0	4.0	98
Florida	32	33	.492	6.0	8.0	94
Atlanta	30	32	.482	6.5	9.5	95
Washington	16	45	.262	20.0	63.5	82

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
San Francisco	34	28	.548	---	---	---
St. Louis	34	30	.531	1.0	1.0	99
New York	32	29	.525	1.5	2.0	100
Cincinnati	31	31	.500	3.0	6.5	98
Chicago	30	30	.500	3.0	6.5	99
Florida	32	33	.492	3.5	9.0	96
Colorado	31	32	.492	3.5	9.0	101
Atlanta	30	32	.482	4.0	11.5	97
Pttsburgh	30	33	.476	4.5	16.5	96
Houston	29	32	.475	4.5	16.5	97
San Diego	28	34	.452	6.0	31.5	95
Arizona	27	37	.422	8.0	53.5	92
Washington	16	45	.262	17.5	167.5	84

Willets Point
Jun 15 2009 10:02 PM

All thing considered, 4 GB in mid-June ain't too shabby.

Gwreck
Jun 15 2009 11:01 PM

The Phillies aren't as good as they were last year (particularly Lidge and Rollins). I can certainly see the Mets passing them, maybe with a Philly injury and the Mets getting some players back.

Edgy DC
Jun 16 2009 05:30 AM

The Mets have turn it on, though. One way, and not a crazy one, of looking at "The Phillies aren't as good as they were last year (particularly Lidge and Rollins)," is to realize the Phils sure have the potential to get better.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 16 2009 12:36 PM

="metirish (in another thread)":20pgmzma]With 101 games to go what would the Mets need to do realistically the rest of the way? After they fired Willie they went 55-38 in the remaining 93 games .

Need to win 60 games?[/quote:20pgmzma]

I haven't done this yet this year, but here's what Baseball Prospectus is currently saying:


Average wins by position in NL East:  92.7 86.4 80.7 74.6 61.7 92.8
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          36   25   .514   88.8   73.2   46.66633   14.85141   61.51774         .04575  -1.48791
Mets              32   29   .544   87.7   74.3   41.41762   13.35543   54.77305         .17262  -0.79291
Marlins           32   33   .485   79.3   82.7    6.56945    4.60971   11.17916         .04267   6.61307
Braves            30   32   .485   78.1   83.9    5.33545    3.61399    8.94944         .10715  -7.83416
Nationals         16   45   .456   62.1   99.9     .01115     .00837     .01952       -0.00110  -0.04799

The Dodgers are at 97.4% for the playoffs, 94.3 for the division. The most likely wild card team is Colorado, currently in 3rd place, with 17.4%. (Phillies are the second most likely wild card, followed by the Mets and the Giants.)

In the American League, the Red Sox score highest, at 77.8% for the playoffs. Yankees are at 47.0%. They both are about equal for the wild card (at 26 to 27 per cent), but the Red Sox are way ahead for the division, leading 50.4% to 20.6%.

I can see why that Orioles fan is boasting, by the way. His team's chances: .05655 division .22353 wild card .28008 overall.

HahnSolo
Jun 16 2009 12:45 PM

Oh, god no, not the BP projections! I vowed not to read these after absorbing them for 2 straight Septembers. have mercy on me, Grimm.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 16 2009 12:53 PM

Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet.

I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.

Ashie62
Jun 17 2009 04:52 AM

BP Over 50/50 shot...Was kinda hoping for 80 percent wire to wire..Probably asking to much on my end

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 17 2009 05:36 AM

Picked up a game on the whole division last nite.

Centerfield
Jun 17 2009 07:17 AM

="Benjamin Grimm":wvotfwll]Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet.

I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.[/quote:wvotfwll]

You think they're gonna run away with the division? Wow, that's some confidence.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 25 2009 01:56 PM

One game out of first place. If Tampa Bay does us a favor tonight, it'll be only a half.

Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 25 2009 01:58 PM

We got a cupcake at home coming up, I don't see how we could get out of this weekend not in first.

Edgy DC
Jun 25 2009 10:51 PM

Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Jul 31 2009 07:51 AM

The whole field has truncated since the last update, with expansion brethren Colorado and Florida heating up the most. Even Washington has gained some ground.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	37	33	.529	---	---	---
New York	37	34	.521	0.5	0.5	92
Florida	38	36	.514	1.0	1.5	90
Atlanta	34	38	.472	4.0	10.5	88
Washington	21	49	.300	16.0	58.5	77

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
San Francisco	39	32	.549	---	---	---
Milwaukee	38	34	.528	1.5	1.4	99
New York	37	34	.521	2.0	2.5	90
Colorado	37	35	.514	2.5	4.0	89
Florida	38	36	.514	2.5	4.0	88
Cincinnati	35	36	.493	4.0	11.5	88
Chicago	34	35	.493	4.0	11.5	89
Atlanta	34	38	.472	5.5	22.0	86
Houston	33	37	.471	5.5	22.0	87
Pttsburgh	33	39	.458	6.5	31.0	85
San Diego	31	40	.437	8.0	50.5	84
Arizona	30	42	.417	9.5	62.5	82
Washington	21	49	.300	17.5	158.5	75

Willets Point
Jun 25 2009 11:11 PM

="Benjamin Grimm":3i3p78g1]Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.[/quote:3i3p78g1]

That can be interpreted in two different ways:

1. The Mets will depart the city of Philadelphia having gained first place for themselves.
2. The Mets will lose and thus the team from Philadelphia will remain in sole possession of first place.

Gwreck
Jun 25 2009 11:31 PM

Which do you think it is?

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 26 2009 05:45 AM

Let me rephrase then...

Perhaps the Mets, upon their departure from Philadelphia next week, will find themselves with the best record in the National League East.

Edgy DC
Jun 26 2009 08:45 PM

Hey, we're in first place.

Edgy DC
Jul 07 2009 06:11 AM

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 07 2009 07:18 AM

Wow, I haven't posted since the Mets were in first.

The good news is that, in the day and a half since the Mets last played (and lost), they have passed two teams (one intradivision) in the standings. The bad news is that the sterategy of moving ahead by not playing isn't very sustainable.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	43	37	.538	---	---	---	48.17926
Florida	43	41	.512	2.0	2.0	79	18.79686
New York	39	42	.481	4.5	7.0	78	21.36100
Atlanta	39	43	.476	5.0	8.5	77	11.65843
Washington	24	55	.304	19.0	64.5	64	0.00446

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	45	37	.549	---	---	---	24.55501
Colorado	43	39	.524	2.0	2.0	79	36.45378
Milwaukee	43	39	.524	2.0	2.0	79	5.20361
Florida	41	39	.513	3.0	5.0	79	2.99581
Chicago	43	41	.512	3.0	5.0	77	3.12304
Cincinnati	40	41	.494	4.5	12.5	77	1.71817
Houston	40	41	.494	4.5	12.5	77	1.13201
New York	39	42	.481	5.5	19.5	76	3.12304
Atlanta	39	43	.476	6.0	23.5	75	2.08225
Pttsburgh	37	46	.446	8.5	46.0	72	0.56024
San Diego	35	47	.427	10.0	61.0	71	0.14075
Arizona	34	49	.410	11.5	77.5	69	0.26129
Washington	24	56	.300	20.0	179.5	62	0.00053

Benjamin Grimm
Jul 07 2009 06:51 AM

Yikes... eighth place in the Wild Card race? Just a few weeks ago they were in first or second.

Things look pretty grim, but not so bad that a sustained hot streak wouldn't cure.

But is this team capable of a sustained hot streak? Sure doesn't look like it.

Edgy DC
Jul 07 2009 07:22 AM

The overlooked here continues to be the turnabout Colorado had had over the last few weeks.

I ain't telling you what to believe, but if you want to still root, take it one team at a time. Root for the Mets, and root like heck against Houston.

Once they pass Houston, the Astros become the Mets allies in helping them pick off the teams ahead.

I'm not going to tell you it's not a slog ahead.

TransMonk
Jul 08 2009 08:07 AM

39-43.

This is the first time the Mets have been 4 games under .500 since 9/17/05.

metirish
Jul 08 2009 08:09 AM

The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.

Edgy DC
Jul 13 2009 08:23 AM

The pattern of fortune's vunlerability to change dramatically each day in the NL East lends an air of bigitude to the Mets upcoming series with the Braves.

Is anybody in the press noticing the extended surge of the Rockies? Look how dramatically they lead without leading in the wildcard race.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	48	38	.558	---	---	---	60.36533
Florida	46	44	.511	4.0	4.0	71	15.70618
Atlanta	43	45	.489	6.0	8.0	70	12.38783
New York	42	45	.483	6.5	9.5	70	11.54009
Washington	26	61	.299	22.5	73.5	54	0.00058

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	49	39	.557	---	---	---	27.11857
Colorado	47	41	.534	2.0	2.0	73	45.51423
Milwaukee	45	43	.511	4.0	6.0	71	2.96857
Florida	46	44	.511	4.0	6.0	40	3.00459
Chicago	43	43	.500	5.0	10.0	71	3.18395
Houston	44	44	.500	5.0	10.0	70	0.71723
Atlanta	43	45	.489	6.0	16.0	69	1.13201
Cincinnati	42	45	.483	6.5	19.5	69	0.68224
New York	42	45	.483	6.5	19.5	69	2.23495
Pttsburgh	38	50	.432	11.0	60.0	64	0.12630
Arizona	38	51	.427	11.5	65.0	62	0.19441
San Diego	36	52	.409	13.0	81.5	62	0.01837
Washington	26	61	.299	22.5	195.5	53	0.00010

Nymr83
Jul 13 2009 08:50 AM

]Washington 26 61 .299 22.5 73.5 54 0.00058

so they'll win the division 6 times out of 1,000,000? that takes into account the chances that they trade for Albert Pujols, Tim Lincecum, Hanley Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Evan Longoria, and Zack Greinke all before the end of the day, right?

Edgy DC
Jul 13 2009 08:56 AM

Plague years, I believe.

Nymr83
Jul 13 2009 08:59 AM

I also did not take into account the chances that the Mets, Braves, Marlins, and Phillies would all get paid off to lose the rest of their games.

Edgy DC
Jul 27 2009 02:02 PM

Chicago --- recently compared to the Mets as far as being disappointing --- has re-asserted themselves and edged ahead of the Cards, thought St. Louis still is shown as more likely to win the division according to Baseball Prospectus. The Mets series win helped put a brake on a long streaking period by Houston climbing the standings, and it also allowed them to pass Cincinnati. So the Reds are now one of the teams you are allowed to root for. Milwaukee is sliding and their the next team we are looking for the Mets to pick off.

Washington is eliminated from both races to the fifth decimal place of a percentage point.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	56	40	.583	---	---	---	71.92603
Atlanta	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	18.94809
Florida	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	6.65038
New York	46	51	.474	10.5	18.5	56	2.47551
Washington	30	68	.306	27.0	84.5	39	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	54	44	.551	---	---	---	58.03895
San Francisco	52	46	.531	2.0	2.0	63	9.07787
St. Louis	53	48	.525	2.5	3.0	61	3.54684
Atlanta	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	8.31609
Florida	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	3.47697
Houston	50	48	.510	4.0	8.5	61	0.87862
Milwaukee	49	49	.500	5.0	14.5	60	0.89282
New York	46	51	.474	7.5	32.0	58	0.37380
Cincinnati	44	53	.454	9.5	48.0	56	0.07017
Pttsburgh	43	55	.439	11.0	61.5	54	0.02579
Arizona	43	56	.434	11.5	66.5	53	0.09422
San Diego	38	61	.384	16.5	121.5	48	0.00010
Washington	30	68	.306	24.0	211.5	41	0.00000

Edgy DC
Jul 31 2009 07:45 AM

Not a lot of movement during the series, except, you know, the Mets knocked Colorado off the top perch in the Wild Card race. No matter, says Baseball Prospectus, who is still doubling down on the Rockies.

The Mets are only a game closer to the top, but cut their net gap from 32 to 26, so that's good. Similarly, they pulled three games closer in the Net column in the division race, such as it is.

In other words, this run has been nice, but it has to be sustained to be meaningful.

Catching Milwaukee and/or Houston over the next few days would be very meaningful.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	58	42	.580	---	---	---	73.50793
Florida	53	49	.520	6.0	6.0	56	8.16545
Atlanta	52	50	.510	7.0	8.0	55	15.18698
New York	49	52	.485	9.5	15.5	53	3.13963
Washington	32	70	.314	27.0	85.5	35	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	56	46	.549	---	---	---	18.97177
Colorado	55	47	.539	1.0	1.0	60	45.52084
St. Louis	56	49	.533	1.5	2.0	58	6.05652
Florida	53	49	.520	3.0	6.5	58	4.07728
Atlanta	52	50	.510	4.0	10.5	57	6.77887
Houston	51	51	.500	5.0	15.5	56	0.65272
Milwaukee	51	51	.500	5.0	15.5	56	0.78867
New York	49	52	.485	6.5	26.0	55	0.62566
Cincinnati	45	56	.446	10.5	58.0	51	0.01369
Arizona	44	58	.431	12.0	71.5	49	0.04786
Pttsburgh	43	58	.426	12.5	76.5	49	0.00565
San Diego	41	62	.398	15.5	109.5	45	0.00005
Washington	32	70	.314	24.0	211.5	37	0.00000

Edgy DC
Aug 04 2009 12:41 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	56	40	.583	---	---	---	74.89575
Atlanta	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	13.43997
Florida	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	10.06658
New York	46	51	.474	10.5	18.5	56	1.59770
Washington	30	68	.306	27.0	84.5	39	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	54	44	.551	---	---	---	58.95294
San Francisco	52	46	.531	2.0	2.0	63	16.21132
St. Louis	53	48	.525	2.5	3.0	61	3.44353
Atlanta	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	2.64151
Florida	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	3.85554
Houston	50	48	.510	4.0	8.5	61	0.39682
Milwaukee	49	49	.500	5.0	14.5	60	0.44886
New York	46	51	.474	7.5	32.0	58	0.12738
Cincinnati	44	53	.454	9.5	48.0	56	0.00121
Pttsburgh	43	55	.439	11.0	61.5	54	0.00172
Arizona	43	56	.434	11.5	66.5	53	0.06649
San Diego	38	61	.384	16.5	121.5	48	0.00031
Washington	30	68	.306	24.0	211.5	41	0.00000

Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%

Ashie62
Aug 04 2009 12:50 PM

="metirish":37imwhfz]The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.[/quote:37imwhfz]

We have a winner! Give the man a set of steaknives

TransMonk
Aug 04 2009 12:51 PM

="Edgy DC":1wacunne]
Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%[/quote:1wacunne]

Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007:
99.80%

Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.

Ashie62
Aug 04 2009 01:00 PM

="TransMonk":1oi9gbzs]

="Edgy DC":1oi9gbzs]
Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%[/quote:1oi9gbzs]

Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007:
99.80%

Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.[/quote:1oi9gbzs]

Wow** Strangely that just made my day. After all they are the Amazin Mets

Edgy DC
Aug 06 2009 08:06 AM

Well, that lousy loss the night before last burns the Mets badly as their net post-season odds dip toward the 1% mark. Milwaukee moves up a bit, so the Mets have to eye Houston first, but you know, the Fish are slipping also.

San Fran re-takes the top wildcard slot, but Baseball Prospectus still is totally not impressed. They love the Rocks.

San Diego joins the Nats among teams not shouldered with the burden of a visible post-season possiblity.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	60	45	.571	---	---	---	75.75257
Florida	55	52	.514	6.0	6.0	51	9.14475
Atlanta	55	53	.509	6.5	7.0	50	14.03328
New York	51	56	.477	10.0	17.5	47	1.06940
Washington	36	72	.333	25.5	79.5	31	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	60	48	.556	---	---	---	22.82055
Colorado	59	48	.551	0.5	0.5	55	54.46296
St. Louis	59	51	.536	2.0	3.5	54	2.71764
Florida	55	52	.514	4.5	11.0	52	2.38452
Atlanta	55	53	.509	5.0	13.0	51	3.43947
Milwaukee	54	54	.500	6.0	18.0	50	0.41470
Houston	53	55	.491	7.0	24.0	48	0.11615
New York	51	56	.477	8.5	34.5	47	0.27858
Arizona	49	59	.454	11.0	54.5	44	0.11468
Cincinnati	46	61	.430	13.5	77.0	42	0.00048
Pttsburgh	45	62	.421	14.5	87.0	41	0.00063
San Diego	44	65	.404	16.5	109.0	38	0.00000
Washington	36	72	.333	24.0	199.0	31	0.00000

Edgy DC
Aug 10 2009 07:57 PM

The Mets are Santa Claus right now, giving hope to all the poor children, first Arizona, then San Diego, who actually has come back from having no chance of winning within five decimal places of a percentage point. Mercy.

Not so resuscitated is Washington, who despite winning a fuky eight straight, still aren't showing any numbers but goose eggs, but they've closed their wild card gap from 199 net games to 173. Another seven months at this pace and who knows?

Normally I'd cheer the Nats onward, reasoning that any success by a team behind the Mets in the standings helps the Mets pick off opponents, but this week stank so solidly that I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings.

Show me something, SHaMs.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	61	48	.560	---	---	---	58.10719
Florida	58	53	.523	4.0	4.0	49	15.91526
Atlanta	58	54	.518	4.5	5.0	48	25.56209
New York	52	59	.468	10.0	21.5	43	0.41546
Washington	40	72	.357	22.5	71.5	30	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	61	50	.550	---	---	---	51.36310
San Francisco	61	50	.550	---	---	---	18.00222
Chicago	58	51	.532	2.0	4.0	51	4.56220
Florida	58	53	.523	3.0	7.0	49	3.87031
Atlanta	58	54	.518	3.5	9.0	48	4.75462
Houston	55	56	.495	6.0	21.5	46	0.16014
Milwaukee	55	56	.495	6.0	21.5	46	0.41311
New York	52	59	.468	9.0	42.5	43	0.08468
Arizona	50	62	.446	11.5	62.5	40	0.03717
Cincinnati	48	62	.436	12.5	71.5	40	0.00078
San Diego	47	66	.416	15.0	96.5	36	0.00003
Pttsburgh	45	66	.405	16.0	107.5	36	0.00000
Washington	40	72	.357	21.5	173.5	30	0.00000

Elster88
Aug 10 2009 08:55 PM

]I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings.

That just depressed the hell out of me.

duan
Aug 11 2009 05:34 AM

i don't know

every time they look like they *just might* put something together that'd mean they'd claw their way TOWARDS being at least able to duke it out in September they lose two straight and fall back off. I'm still cool with saying if they go 13-6 or something in the remaining August games they'll be well in it, but there's only so many times they can fail to actually have one of those runs and still be able to put enough of them together.
We've really missed a healthy John Maine.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Aug 11 2009 12:06 PM

Re: i don't know

="duan":exl5k9ys]We've really missed a healthy John Maine.[/quote:exl5k9ys]

Since mid-2007.

Edgy DC
Aug 11 2009 12:53 PM

We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.

duan
Aug 11 2009 05:08 PM

="Edgy DC":20movskg]We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.[/quote:20movskg]
totally, it's just that Pelfrey & Hernandez seem to alternate good & bad outings and whoever's in the 4th & 5th slots is usually pretty junky so on the days where we don't score 7 runs we lose more then half the time. I sorta feel if we just had one more stable starter we'd be close to .500 now and if the batters came back could make a go of it.

May 11, 2009

="Willets Point":2ioo2dnz]

="metsguyinmichigan":2ioo2dnz]Can you imagine being 21 games out on May 10? Amazing.[/quote:2ioo2dnz]

I'm sure as Mets fans that there were seasons when we need not imagine. But these are the good years which I for one am grateful.[/quote:2ioo2dnz]

John Cougar Lunchbucket
May 11 2009 11:17 AM

Well this thread is sure to doom us now.

Ceetar
May 11 2009 04:19 PM

Still think they need to fire Manuel, but at least the Mets are too good for him to bring them down.

Farmer Ted
May 15 2009 10:12 AM

Up two games this morning. Won't be comfy until that number has a zero after it.

Frayed Knot
May 15 2009 11:44 AM

NL Central doing OK for itself these days.

The first bit of inter-league (booo) is ready to start in about a week and, if things continue as they have for the previous four seasons, the NL records will start getting bogged down in more losses than wins. So today, while things are still balanced, was the first time I shot a glance on how the divisions were faring vs each other.

EAST: 8 games below .500 - virtually all of it due to Washington's league worst record

CENTRAL: +18 - Pittsburgh's losing streak puts them 6 games under, but somehow Houston is just 2 games under and the other four are within a half-game of each other playing .590-.600 ball
No longer the Comedy Central Division

WEST: -10 - LA is good and the Giants are keeping their heads above water. But the other three are awful

Edgy DC
May 23 2009 09:51 PM

I had noticed Florida fading (kinda sad), but I hadn't noticed Atlanta sneaking into the picture. I should've, considering how they played us last time in Flushing.

Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	23	18	.561	--	--	--
New York	23	19	.548	0.5	0.5	121
Atlanta	22	20	.524	1.5	2.5	120
Florida	19	25	.432	5.5	14.5	115
Washington	12	30	.286	11.5	38.5	110

Ceetar
May 23 2009 10:06 PM

="Edgy DC":3tj6rvgg]I had noticed Florida fading (kinda sad), but I hadn't noticed Atlanta sneaking into the picture. I should've, considering how they played us last time in Flushing.[/quote:3tj6rvgg]

I picked the Braves over and the Phillies under before the season. Just judging them on how they looked on SNY when they played us? the Braves are the better team.

Edgy DC
May 25 2009 09:04 PM

Folks have been standing still the last two days, except Florida.

Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	24	19	.558	--	--	--
New York	24	20	.545	0.5	0.5	119
Atlanta	23	21	.523	1.5	2.5	118
Florida	21	25	.457	4.5	10.5	115
Washington	13	31	.295	11.5	39.5	110

Edgy DC
May 27 2009 09:57 PM

Ahem.

Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
New York	26	20	.565	---	---	---
Philadelphia	25	20	.556	0.5	0.5	117
Atlanta	23	22	.511	2.5	4.5	115
Florida	22	26	.458	5.0	12.0	111
Washington	13	33	.283	13.0	41.0	104

Elsewhere, we still have the same record as Cincinnati, and the Blue Jays are playing like chumps and better stop.

Benjamin Grimm
May 28 2009 05:19 AM

Given all the struggles the Mets have had this season, the injuries and that daunting road trip, first place on May 28, and six games above .500 is awfully darn good.

Hopefully they beat up on the Pirates and Nationals on the next road trip and start opening up a bit of a lead.

Triple Dee
May 28 2009 05:36 AM

By the same token, the Phils are within 0.5 game without a starting pitcher with an era <4.50 (QS standard) and a closer with a serious case of the yips.

I'll be very surprised if the NL WC comes from the East.

Triple Dee
May 28 2009 05:49 AM

="Edgy DC":31o8fwpe]
...., and the Blue Jays are playing like chumps and better stop.[/quote:31o8fwpe]

Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Mets. If they rapidly fall out of contention, Halliday may be put on the trading bloc(k). There's no way he'll be traded to the Red Sox or Yanquis, which is likely to make the Phils the number one suitors.

Ceetar
May 28 2009 06:37 AM

Getting Johan didn't work for a better Mets team last year. Even if the Phillies could pull of Halladay (they can't), it wouldn't be enough. There issues run a lot deeper than one SP can fix.

soupcan
May 28 2009 06:45 AM

="Triple Dee":16wgdhxn]Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Mets. If they rapidly fall out of contention, Halliday may be put on the trading bloc(k). There's no way he'll be traded to the Red Sox or Yanquis, which is likely to make the Phils the number one suitors.[/quote:16wgdhxn]

Well, I'm certain Fman would agree with me when I say that unhealthy BJs are just bad news all-around, but even if the Phils are the most likely suitor that doesn't necessarily mean Halliday is theirs for the taking. If I'm the BJs I'm looking for a lot for Roy. Do the Phillies have what it would take? I would think it would take young, proven ML talent at least.

Benjamin Grimm
May 28 2009 06:52 AM

And remember, it was the White Sox who almost closed a deal for Peavy. They seem to be big players in the starting pitcher market.

If I'm shopping a starting pitcher, they'd be among the first teams I'd call.

Fman99
May 28 2009 06:56 AM

="Triple Dee"]

="Edgy DC"]
...., and the Blue Jays are playing like chumps and better stop.

Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Mets.

Too much teeth?

Triple Dee
May 28 2009 08:39 AM

(My apologies for hijacking the Standings thread, maybe these posts should be moved to another thread.)

="soupcan":24grmrc0]
but even if the Phils are the most likely suitor that doesn't necessarily mean Halliday is theirs for the taking. If I'm the BJs I'm looking for a lot for Roy. Do the Phillies have what it would take? I would think it would take young, proven ML talent at least.
[/quote:24grmrc0]

You're right, presently they probably don't have enough for Halliday. Their top pitching prospect, Carlos Carrasco is having a pretty bad time in AAA. They have Kyle Drabek (presumably Doug's son?) who is highly regarded but he's playing A ball . Other than they have some decent OF which the BJs don't need.

="BG":24grmrc0]
And remember, it was the White Sox who almost closed a deal for Peavy. They seem to be big players in the starting pitcher market.
[/quote:24grmrc0]
The ChiSox probably need starting pitching help now. I suspect by the time the BJ's would want to deal Halliday, they'll be as far out as they are.

="Fman99":24grmrc0]
Too much teeth?
[/quote:24grmrc0]
Gutter.

smg58
May 28 2009 01:35 PM

="Triple Dee":20e91cie]Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Phils. If they rapidly fall out of contention, Halliday may be put on the trading bloc(k). There's no way he'll be traded to the Red Sox or Yanquis, which is likely to make the Mets the number one suitors.[/quote:20e91cie]

There, that's better.

In all seriousness, if Halladay and/or Cliff Lee go on the block we can't cry poverty.

Edgy DC
Jun 02 2009 02:13 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	29	20	.592	---	---	---
New York	28	22	.560	1.5	1.5	112
Atlanta	25	25	.500	4.5	7.5	109
Florida	24	28	.462	6.5	13.5	106
Washington	13	36	.265	16	51.5	98

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 08 2009 04:49 AM

I know we all pretend to be disinterested in the Wild Card (until, of course, it's the last weekend of the season and the division has been clinched and we desperately want the Wild Card) but the Mets are currently in a virtual tie for the WC lead with St. Louis. (They're actually .001 ahead.)

Just thought I'd mention it.

Frayed Knot
Jun 08 2009 07:43 AM

It helps that whilst Met fans wuz crying over the sweep in Pittsburgh and deeming barely acceptable their 2 of 3 over the Nats (and ranting about how good teams "don't let that happen", etc) the Cards were getting swept by the Rockies.

Frayed Knot
Jun 08 2009 03:00 PM

BTW, that Cards-Rox series which I assumed was a 3-game sweep, wasn't.
It was actually a 4-game series with the getaway game today ... and now it's a 4-game sweep by the Rockies. And in StL too.

Edgy DC
Jun 08 2009 07:32 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	33	22	.600	---	---	---
New York	30	25	.545	3.0	3.0	105
Atlanta	27	28	.491	6.0	9.0	102
Florida	27	31	.466	7.5	13.5	99
Washington	15	40	.273	18.0	55.5	90

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
New York	30	25	.545	---	---	---
St. Louis	31	27	.534	0.5	0.5	105
San Francisco	29	26	.527	1.0	1.5	106
Chicago	28	26	.519	1.5	3.0	106
Cincinnati	29	27	.518	1.5	3.0	105
Atlanta	27	28	.491	3.0	10.5	104
Florida	27	31	.466	4.5	19.0	101
Pttsburgh	26	30	.464	4.5	19.0	102
San Diego	26	30	.464	4.5	19.0	102
Houston	25	30	.455	5.0	24.0	102
Arizona	25	32	.439	6.0	34.0	101
Colorado	25	32	.439	6.0	34.0	101
Washington	15	40	.273	15.0	142.0	92

Edgy DC
Jun 15 2009 08:38 PM

Florida is making another small move in the east, while the Mets have relinquished the wild card for now.

Colrado has absolutely exploded, knocking a ton of net games back off as they move from next to last to the middle of the pack.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	36	25	.590	---	---	---
New York	32	29	.525	4.0	4.0	98
Florida	32	33	.492	6.0	8.0	94
Atlanta	30	32	.482	6.5	9.5	95
Washington	16	45	.262	20.0	63.5	82

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
San Francisco	34	28	.548	---	---	---
St. Louis	34	30	.531	1.0	1.0	99
New York	32	29	.525	1.5	2.0	100
Cincinnati	31	31	.500	3.0	6.5	98
Chicago	30	30	.500	3.0	6.5	99
Florida	32	33	.492	3.5	9.0	96
Colorado	31	32	.492	3.5	9.0	101
Atlanta	30	32	.482	4.0	11.5	97
Pttsburgh	30	33	.476	4.5	16.5	96
Houston	29	32	.475	4.5	16.5	97
San Diego	28	34	.452	6.0	31.5	95
Arizona	27	37	.422	8.0	53.5	92
Washington	16	45	.262	17.5	167.5	84

Willets Point
Jun 15 2009 10:02 PM

All thing considered, 4 GB in mid-June ain't too shabby.

Gwreck
Jun 15 2009 11:01 PM

The Phillies aren't as good as they were last year (particularly Lidge and Rollins). I can certainly see the Mets passing them, maybe with a Philly injury and the Mets getting some players back.

Edgy DC
Jun 16 2009 05:30 AM

The Mets have turn it on, though. One way, and not a crazy one, of looking at "The Phillies aren't as good as they were last year (particularly Lidge and Rollins)," is to realize the Phils sure have the potential to get better.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 16 2009 12:36 PM

="metirish (in another thread)":20pgmzma]With 101 games to go what would the Mets need to do realistically the rest of the way? After they fired Willie they went 55-38 in the remaining 93 games .

Need to win 60 games?[/quote:20pgmzma]

I haven't done this yet this year, but here's what Baseball Prospectus is currently saying:


Average wins by position in NL East:  92.7 86.4 80.7 74.6 61.7 92.8
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          36   25   .514   88.8   73.2   46.66633   14.85141   61.51774         .04575  -1.48791
Mets              32   29   .544   87.7   74.3   41.41762   13.35543   54.77305         .17262  -0.79291
Marlins           32   33   .485   79.3   82.7    6.56945    4.60971   11.17916         .04267   6.61307
Braves            30   32   .485   78.1   83.9    5.33545    3.61399    8.94944         .10715  -7.83416
Nationals         16   45   .456   62.1   99.9     .01115     .00837     .01952       -0.00110  -0.04799

The Dodgers are at 97.4% for the playoffs, 94.3 for the division. The most likely wild card team is Colorado, currently in 3rd place, with 17.4%. (Phillies are the second most likely wild card, followed by the Mets and the Giants.)

In the American League, the Red Sox score highest, at 77.8% for the playoffs. Yankees are at 47.0%. They both are about equal for the wild card (at 26 to 27 per cent), but the Red Sox are way ahead for the division, leading 50.4% to 20.6%.

I can see why that Orioles fan is boasting, by the way. His team's chances: .05655 division .22353 wild card .28008 overall.

HahnSolo
Jun 16 2009 12:45 PM

Oh, god no, not the BP projections! I vowed not to read these after absorbing them for 2 straight Septembers. have mercy on me, Grimm.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 16 2009 12:53 PM

Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet.

I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.

Ashie62
Jun 17 2009 04:52 AM

BP Over 50/50 shot...Was kinda hoping for 80 percent wire to wire..Probably asking to much on my end

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 17 2009 05:36 AM

Picked up a game on the whole division last nite.

Centerfield
Jun 17 2009 07:17 AM

="Benjamin Grimm":wvotfwll]Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet.

I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.[/quote:wvotfwll]

You think they're gonna run away with the division? Wow, that's some confidence.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 25 2009 01:56 PM

One game out of first place. If Tampa Bay does us a favor tonight, it'll be only a half.

Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 25 2009 01:58 PM

We got a cupcake at home coming up, I don't see how we could get out of this weekend not in first.

Edgy DC
Jun 25 2009 10:51 PM

Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Jul 31 2009 07:51 AM

The whole field has truncated since the last update, with expansion brethren Colorado and Florida heating up the most. Even Washington has gained some ground.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	37	33	.529	---	---	---
New York	37	34	.521	0.5	0.5	92
Florida	38	36	.514	1.0	1.5	90
Atlanta	34	38	.472	4.0	10.5	88
Washington	21	49	.300	16.0	58.5	77

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
San Francisco	39	32	.549	---	---	---
Milwaukee	38	34	.528	1.5	1.4	99
New York	37	34	.521	2.0	2.5	90
Colorado	37	35	.514	2.5	4.0	89
Florida	38	36	.514	2.5	4.0	88
Cincinnati	35	36	.493	4.0	11.5	88
Chicago	34	35	.493	4.0	11.5	89
Atlanta	34	38	.472	5.5	22.0	86
Houston	33	37	.471	5.5	22.0	87
Pttsburgh	33	39	.458	6.5	31.0	85
San Diego	31	40	.437	8.0	50.5	84
Arizona	30	42	.417	9.5	62.5	82
Washington	21	49	.300	17.5	158.5	75

Willets Point
Jun 25 2009 11:11 PM

="Benjamin Grimm":3i3p78g1]Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.[/quote:3i3p78g1]

That can be interpreted in two different ways:

1. The Mets will depart the city of Philadelphia having gained first place for themselves.
2. The Mets will lose and thus the team from Philadelphia will remain in sole possession of first place.

Gwreck
Jun 25 2009 11:31 PM

Which do you think it is?

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 26 2009 05:45 AM

Let me rephrase then...

Perhaps the Mets, upon their departure from Philadelphia next week, will find themselves with the best record in the National League East.

Edgy DC
Jun 26 2009 08:45 PM

Hey, we're in first place.

Edgy DC
Jul 07 2009 06:11 AM

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 07 2009 07:18 AM

Wow, I haven't posted since the Mets were in first.

The good news is that, in the day and a half since the Mets last played (and lost), they have passed two teams (one intradivision) in the standings. The bad news is that the sterategy of moving ahead by not playing isn't very sustainable.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	43	37	.538	---	---	---	48.17926
Florida	43	41	.512	2.0	2.0	79	18.79686
New York	39	42	.481	4.5	7.0	78	21.36100
Atlanta	39	43	.476	5.0	8.5	77	11.65843
Washington	24	55	.304	19.0	64.5	64	0.00446

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	45	37	.549	---	---	---	24.55501
Colorado	43	39	.524	2.0	2.0	79	36.45378
Milwaukee	43	39	.524	2.0	2.0	79	5.20361
Florida	41	39	.513	3.0	5.0	79	2.99581
Chicago	43	41	.512	3.0	5.0	77	3.12304
Cincinnati	40	41	.494	4.5	12.5	77	1.71817
Houston	40	41	.494	4.5	12.5	77	1.13201
New York	39	42	.481	5.5	19.5	76	3.12304
Atlanta	39	43	.476	6.0	23.5	75	2.08225
Pttsburgh	37	46	.446	8.5	46.0	72	0.56024
San Diego	35	47	.427	10.0	61.0	71	0.14075
Arizona	34	49	.410	11.5	77.5	69	0.26129
Washington	24	56	.300	20.0	179.5	62	0.00053

Benjamin Grimm
Jul 07 2009 06:51 AM

Yikes... eighth place in the Wild Card race? Just a few weeks ago they were in first or second.

Things look pretty grim, but not so bad that a sustained hot streak wouldn't cure.

But is this team capable of a sustained hot streak? Sure doesn't look like it.

Edgy DC
Jul 07 2009 07:22 AM

The overlooked here continues to be the turnabout Colorado had had over the last few weeks.

I ain't telling you what to believe, but if you want to still root, take it one team at a time. Root for the Mets, and root like heck against Houston.

Once they pass Houston, the Astros become the Mets allies in helping them pick off the teams ahead.

I'm not going to tell you it's not a slog ahead.

TransMonk
Jul 08 2009 08:07 AM

39-43.

This is the first time the Mets have been 4 games under .500 since 9/17/05.

metirish
Jul 08 2009 08:09 AM

The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.

Edgy DC
Jul 13 2009 08:23 AM

The pattern of fortune's vunlerability to change dramatically each day in the NL East lends an air of bigitude to the Mets upcoming series with the Braves.

Is anybody in the press noticing the extended surge of the Rockies? Look how dramatically they lead without leading in the wildcard race.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	48	38	.558	---	---	---	60.36533
Florida	46	44	.511	4.0	4.0	71	15.70618
Atlanta	43	45	.489	6.0	8.0	70	12.38783
New York	42	45	.483	6.5	9.5	70	11.54009
Washington	26	61	.299	22.5	73.5	54	0.00058

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	49	39	.557	---	---	---	27.11857
Colorado	47	41	.534	2.0	2.0	73	45.51423
Milwaukee	45	43	.511	4.0	6.0	71	2.96857
Florida	46	44	.511	4.0	6.0	40	3.00459
Chicago	43	43	.500	5.0	10.0	71	3.18395
Houston	44	44	.500	5.0	10.0	70	0.71723
Atlanta	43	45	.489	6.0	16.0	69	1.13201
Cincinnati	42	45	.483	6.5	19.5	69	0.68224
New York	42	45	.483	6.5	19.5	69	2.23495
Pttsburgh	38	50	.432	11.0	60.0	64	0.12630
Arizona	38	51	.427	11.5	65.0	62	0.19441
San Diego	36	52	.409	13.0	81.5	62	0.01837
Washington	26	61	.299	22.5	195.5	53	0.00010

Nymr83
Jul 13 2009 08:50 AM

]Washington 26 61 .299 22.5 73.5 54 0.00058

so they'll win the division 6 times out of 1,000,000? that takes into account the chances that they trade for Albert Pujols, Tim Lincecum, Hanley Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Evan Longoria, and Zack Greinke all before the end of the day, right?

Edgy DC
Jul 13 2009 08:56 AM

Plague years, I believe.

Nymr83
Jul 13 2009 08:59 AM

I also did not take into account the chances that the Mets, Braves, Marlins, and Phillies would all get paid off to lose the rest of their games.

Edgy DC
Jul 27 2009 02:02 PM

Chicago --- recently compared to the Mets as far as being disappointing --- has re-asserted themselves and edged ahead of the Cards, thought St. Louis still is shown as more likely to win the division according to Baseball Prospectus. The Mets series win helped put a brake on a long streaking period by Houston climbing the standings, and it also allowed them to pass Cincinnati. So the Reds are now one of the teams you are allowed to root for. Milwaukee is sliding and their the next team we are looking for the Mets to pick off.

Washington is eliminated from both races to the fifth decimal place of a percentage point.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	56	40	.583	---	---	---	71.92603
Atlanta	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	18.94809
Florida	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	6.65038
New York	46	51	.474	10.5	18.5	56	2.47551
Washington	30	68	.306	27.0	84.5	39	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	54	44	.551	---	---	---	58.03895
San Francisco	52	46	.531	2.0	2.0	63	9.07787
St. Louis	53	48	.525	2.5	3.0	61	3.54684
Atlanta	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	8.31609
Florida	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	3.47697
Houston	50	48	.510	4.0	8.5	61	0.87862
Milwaukee	49	49	.500	5.0	14.5	60	0.89282
New York	46	51	.474	7.5	32.0	58	0.37380
Cincinnati	44	53	.454	9.5	48.0	56	0.07017
Pttsburgh	43	55	.439	11.0	61.5	54	0.02579
Arizona	43	56	.434	11.5	66.5	53	0.09422
San Diego	38	61	.384	16.5	121.5	48	0.00010
Washington	30	68	.306	24.0	211.5	41	0.00000

Edgy DC
Jul 31 2009 07:45 AM

Not a lot of movement during the series, except, you know, the Mets knocked Colorado off the top perch in the Wild Card race. No matter, says Baseball Prospectus, who is still doubling down on the Rockies.

The Mets are only a game closer to the top, but cut their net gap from 32 to 26, so that's good. Similarly, they pulled three games closer in the Net column in the division race, such as it is.

In other words, this run has been nice, but it has to be sustained to be meaningful.

Catching Milwaukee and/or Houston over the next few days would be very meaningful.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	58	42	.580	---	---	---	73.50793
Florida	53	49	.520	6.0	6.0	56	8.16545
Atlanta	52	50	.510	7.0	8.0	55	15.18698
New York	49	52	.485	9.5	15.5	53	3.13963
Washington	32	70	.314	27.0	85.5	35	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	56	46	.549	---	---	---	18.97177
Colorado	55	47	.539	1.0	1.0	60	45.52084
St. Louis	56	49	.533	1.5	2.0	58	6.05652
Florida	53	49	.520	3.0	6.5	58	4.07728
Atlanta	52	50	.510	4.0	10.5	57	6.77887
Houston	51	51	.500	5.0	15.5	56	0.65272
Milwaukee	51	51	.500	5.0	15.5	56	0.78867
New York	49	52	.485	6.5	26.0	55	0.62566
Cincinnati	45	56	.446	10.5	58.0	51	0.01369
Arizona	44	58	.431	12.0	71.5	49	0.04786
Pttsburgh	43	58	.426	12.5	76.5	49	0.00565
San Diego	41	62	.398	15.5	109.5	45	0.00005
Washington	32	70	.314	24.0	211.5	37	0.00000

Edgy DC
Aug 04 2009 12:41 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	56	40	.583	---	---	---	74.89575
Atlanta	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	13.43997
Florida	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	10.06658
New York	46	51	.474	10.5	18.5	56	1.59770
Washington	30	68	.306	27.0	84.5	39	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	54	44	.551	---	---	---	58.95294
San Francisco	52	46	.531	2.0	2.0	63	16.21132
St. Louis	53	48	.525	2.5	3.0	61	3.44353
Atlanta	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	2.64151
Florida	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	3.85554
Houston	50	48	.510	4.0	8.5	61	0.39682
Milwaukee	49	49	.500	5.0	14.5	60	0.44886
New York	46	51	.474	7.5	32.0	58	0.12738
Cincinnati	44	53	.454	9.5	48.0	56	0.00121
Pttsburgh	43	55	.439	11.0	61.5	54	0.00172
Arizona	43	56	.434	11.5	66.5	53	0.06649
San Diego	38	61	.384	16.5	121.5	48	0.00031
Washington	30	68	.306	24.0	211.5	41	0.00000

Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%

Ashie62
Aug 04 2009 12:50 PM

="metirish":37imwhfz]The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.[/quote:37imwhfz]

We have a winner! Give the man a set of steaknives

TransMonk
Aug 04 2009 12:51 PM

="Edgy DC":1wacunne]
Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%[/quote:1wacunne]

Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007:
99.80%

Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.

Ashie62
Aug 04 2009 01:00 PM

="TransMonk":1oi9gbzs]

="Edgy DC":1oi9gbzs]
Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%[/quote:1oi9gbzs]

Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007:
99.80%

Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.[/quote:1oi9gbzs]

Wow** Strangely that just made my day. After all they are the Amazin Mets

Edgy DC
Aug 06 2009 08:06 AM

Well, that lousy loss the night before last burns the Mets badly as their net post-season odds dip toward the 1% mark. Milwaukee moves up a bit, so the Mets have to eye Houston first, but you know, the Fish are slipping also.

San Fran re-takes the top wildcard slot, but Baseball Prospectus still is totally not impressed. They love the Rocks.

San Diego joins the Nats among teams not shouldered with the burden of a visible post-season possiblity.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	60	45	.571	---	---	---	75.75257
Florida	55	52	.514	6.0	6.0	51	9.14475
Atlanta	55	53	.509	6.5	7.0	50	14.03328
New York	51	56	.477	10.0	17.5	47	1.06940
Washington	36	72	.333	25.5	79.5	31	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	60	48	.556	---	---	---	22.82055
Colorado	59	48	.551	0.5	0.5	55	54.46296
St. Louis	59	51	.536	2.0	3.5	54	2.71764
Florida	55	52	.514	4.5	11.0	52	2.38452
Atlanta	55	53	.509	5.0	13.0	51	3.43947
Milwaukee	54	54	.500	6.0	18.0	50	0.41470
Houston	53	55	.491	7.0	24.0	48	0.11615
New York	51	56	.477	8.5	34.5	47	0.27858
Arizona	49	59	.454	11.0	54.5	44	0.11468
Cincinnati	46	61	.430	13.5	77.0	42	0.00048
Pttsburgh	45	62	.421	14.5	87.0	41	0.00063
San Diego	44	65	.404	16.5	109.0	38	0.00000
Washington	36	72	.333	24.0	199.0	31	0.00000

Edgy DC
Aug 10 2009 07:57 PM

The Mets are Santa Claus right now, giving hope to all the poor children, first Arizona, then San Diego, who actually has come back from having no chance of winning within five decimal places of a percentage point. Mercy.

Not so resuscitated is Washington, who despite winning a fuky eight straight, still aren't showing any numbers but goose eggs, but they've closed their wild card gap from 199 net games to 173. Another seven months at this pace and who knows?

Normally I'd cheer the Nats onward, reasoning that any success by a team behind the Mets in the standings helps the Mets pick off opponents, but this week stank so solidly that I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings.

Show me something, SHaMs.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	61	48	.560	---	---	---	58.10719
Florida	58	53	.523	4.0	4.0	49	15.91526
Atlanta	58	54	.518	4.5	5.0	48	25.56209
New York	52	59	.468	10.0	21.5	43	0.41546
Washington	40	72	.357	22.5	71.5	30	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	61	50	.550	---	---	---	51.36310
San Francisco	61	50	.550	---	---	---	18.00222
Chicago	58	51	.532	2.0	4.0	51	4.56220
Florida	58	53	.523	3.0	7.0	49	3.87031
Atlanta	58	54	.518	3.5	9.0	48	4.75462
Houston	55	56	.495	6.0	21.5	46	0.16014
Milwaukee	55	56	.495	6.0	21.5	46	0.41311
New York	52	59	.468	9.0	42.5	43	0.08468
Arizona	50	62	.446	11.5	62.5	40	0.03717
Cincinnati	48	62	.436	12.5	71.5	40	0.00078
San Diego	47	66	.416	15.0	96.5	36	0.00003
Pttsburgh	45	66	.405	16.0	107.5	36	0.00000
Washington	40	72	.357	21.5	173.5	30	0.00000

Elster88
Aug 10 2009 08:55 PM

]I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings.

That just depressed the hell out of me.

duan
Aug 11 2009 05:34 AM

i don't know

every time they look like they *just might* put something together that'd mean they'd claw their way TOWARDS being at least able to duke it out in September they lose two straight and fall back off. I'm still cool with saying if they go 13-6 or something in the remaining August games they'll be well in it, but there's only so many times they can fail to actually have one of those runs and still be able to put enough of them together.
We've really missed a healthy John Maine.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Aug 11 2009 12:06 PM

Re: i don't know

="duan":exl5k9ys]We've really missed a healthy John Maine.[/quote:exl5k9ys]

Since mid-2007.

Edgy DC
Aug 11 2009 12:53 PM

We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.

duan
Aug 11 2009 05:08 PM

="Edgy DC":20movskg]We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.[/quote:20movskg]
totally, it's just that Pelfrey & Hernandez seem to alternate good & bad outings and whoever's in the 4th & 5th slots is usually pretty junky so on the days where we don't score 7 runs we lose more then half the time. I sorta feel if we just had one more stable starter we'd be close to .500 now and if the batters came back could make a go of it.

May 11, 2009

Well this thread is sure to doom us now.

Ceetar · May 11, 2009

Still think they need to fire Manuel, but at least the Mets are too good for him to bring them down.

Farmer Ted · May 15, 2009

Up two games this morning. Won't be comfy until that number has a zero after it.

Frayed Knot · May 15, 2009

NL Central doing OK for itself these days.

The first bit of inter-league (booo) is ready to start in about a week and, if things continue as they have for the previous four seasons, the NL records will start getting bogged down in more losses than wins. So today, while things are still balanced, was the first time I shot a glance on how the divisions were faring vs each other.

EAST: 8 games below .500 - virtually all of it due to Washington's league worst record

CENTRAL: +18 - Pittsburgh's losing streak puts them 6 games under, but somehow Houston is just 2 games under and the other four are within a half-game of each other playing .590-.600 ball
No longer the Comedy Central Division

WEST: -10 - LA is good and the Giants are keeping their heads above water. But the other three are awful

May 23, 2009

I had noticed Florida fading (kinda sad), but I hadn't noticed Atlanta sneaking into the picture. I should've, considering how they played us last time in Flushing.

Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	23	18	.561	--	--	--
New York	23	19	.548	0.5	0.5	121
Atlanta	22	20	.524	1.5	2.5	120
Florida	19	25	.432	5.5	14.5	115
Washington	12	30	.286	11.5	38.5	110

Ceetar · May 23, 2009

="Edgy DC":3tj6rvgg]I had noticed Florida fading (kinda sad), but I hadn't noticed Atlanta sneaking into the picture. I should've, considering how they played us last time in Flushing.[/quote:3tj6rvgg]

I picked the Braves over and the Phillies under before the season. Just judging them on how they looked on SNY when they played us? the Braves are the better team.

Edgy DC
May 25 2009 09:04 PM

Folks have been standing still the last two days, except Florida.

Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	24	19	.558	--	--	--
New York	24	20	.545	0.5	0.5	119
Atlanta	23	21	.523	1.5	2.5	118
Florida	21	25	.457	4.5	10.5	115
Washington	13	31	.295	11.5	39.5	110

Edgy DC
May 27 2009 09:57 PM

Ahem.

Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
New York	26	20	.565	---	---	---
Philadelphia	25	20	.556	0.5	0.5	117
Atlanta	23	22	.511	2.5	4.5	115
Florida	22	26	.458	5.0	12.0	111
Washington	13	33	.283	13.0	41.0	104

Elsewhere, we still have the same record as Cincinnati, and the Blue Jays are playing like chumps and better stop.

Benjamin Grimm
May 28 2009 05:19 AM

Given all the struggles the Mets have had this season, the injuries and that daunting road trip, first place on May 28, and six games above .500 is awfully darn good.

Hopefully they beat up on the Pirates and Nationals on the next road trip and start opening up a bit of a lead.

Triple Dee
May 28 2009 05:36 AM

By the same token, the Phils are within 0.5 game without a starting pitcher with an era <4.50 (QS standard) and a closer with a serious case of the yips.

I'll be very surprised if the NL WC comes from the East.

Triple Dee
May 28 2009 05:49 AM

="Edgy DC":31o8fwpe]
...., and the Blue Jays are playing like chumps and better stop.[/quote:31o8fwpe]

Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Mets. If they rapidly fall out of contention, Halliday may be put on the trading bloc(k). There's no way he'll be traded to the Red Sox or Yanquis, which is likely to make the Phils the number one suitors.

Ceetar
May 28 2009 06:37 AM

Getting Johan didn't work for a better Mets team last year. Even if the Phillies could pull of Halladay (they can't), it wouldn't be enough. There issues run a lot deeper than one SP can fix.

soupcan
May 28 2009 06:45 AM

="Triple Dee":16wgdhxn]Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Mets. If they rapidly fall out of contention, Halliday may be put on the trading bloc(k). There's no way he'll be traded to the Red Sox or Yanquis, which is likely to make the Phils the number one suitors.[/quote:16wgdhxn]

Well, I'm certain Fman would agree with me when I say that unhealthy BJs are just bad news all-around, but even if the Phils are the most likely suitor that doesn't necessarily mean Halliday is theirs for the taking. If I'm the BJs I'm looking for a lot for Roy. Do the Phillies have what it would take? I would think it would take young, proven ML talent at least.

Benjamin Grimm
May 28 2009 06:52 AM

And remember, it was the White Sox who almost closed a deal for Peavy. They seem to be big players in the starting pitcher market.

If I'm shopping a starting pitcher, they'd be among the first teams I'd call.

Fman99
May 28 2009 06:56 AM

="Triple Dee"]

="Edgy DC"]
...., and the Blue Jays are playing like chumps and better stop.

Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Mets.

Too much teeth?

Triple Dee
May 28 2009 08:39 AM

(My apologies for hijacking the Standings thread, maybe these posts should be moved to another thread.)

="soupcan":24grmrc0]
but even if the Phils are the most likely suitor that doesn't necessarily mean Halliday is theirs for the taking. If I'm the BJs I'm looking for a lot for Roy. Do the Phillies have what it would take? I would think it would take young, proven ML talent at least.
[/quote:24grmrc0]

You're right, presently they probably don't have enough for Halliday. Their top pitching prospect, Carlos Carrasco is having a pretty bad time in AAA. They have Kyle Drabek (presumably Doug's son?) who is highly regarded but he's playing A ball . Other than they have some decent OF which the BJs don't need.

="BG":24grmrc0]
And remember, it was the White Sox who almost closed a deal for Peavy. They seem to be big players in the starting pitcher market.
[/quote:24grmrc0]
The ChiSox probably need starting pitching help now. I suspect by the time the BJ's would want to deal Halliday, they'll be as far out as they are.

="Fman99":24grmrc0]
Too much teeth?
[/quote:24grmrc0]
Gutter.

smg58
May 28 2009 01:35 PM

="Triple Dee":20e91cie]Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Phils. If they rapidly fall out of contention, Halliday may be put on the trading bloc(k). There's no way he'll be traded to the Red Sox or Yanquis, which is likely to make the Mets the number one suitors.[/quote:20e91cie]

There, that's better.

In all seriousness, if Halladay and/or Cliff Lee go on the block we can't cry poverty.

Edgy DC
Jun 02 2009 02:13 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	29	20	.592	---	---	---
New York	28	22	.560	1.5	1.5	112
Atlanta	25	25	.500	4.5	7.5	109
Florida	24	28	.462	6.5	13.5	106
Washington	13	36	.265	16	51.5	98

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 08 2009 04:49 AM

I know we all pretend to be disinterested in the Wild Card (until, of course, it's the last weekend of the season and the division has been clinched and we desperately want the Wild Card) but the Mets are currently in a virtual tie for the WC lead with St. Louis. (They're actually .001 ahead.)

Just thought I'd mention it.

Frayed Knot
Jun 08 2009 07:43 AM

It helps that whilst Met fans wuz crying over the sweep in Pittsburgh and deeming barely acceptable their 2 of 3 over the Nats (and ranting about how good teams "don't let that happen", etc) the Cards were getting swept by the Rockies.

Frayed Knot
Jun 08 2009 03:00 PM

BTW, that Cards-Rox series which I assumed was a 3-game sweep, wasn't.
It was actually a 4-game series with the getaway game today ... and now it's a 4-game sweep by the Rockies. And in StL too.

Edgy DC
Jun 08 2009 07:32 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	33	22	.600	---	---	---
New York	30	25	.545	3.0	3.0	105
Atlanta	27	28	.491	6.0	9.0	102
Florida	27	31	.466	7.5	13.5	99
Washington	15	40	.273	18.0	55.5	90

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
New York	30	25	.545	---	---	---
St. Louis	31	27	.534	0.5	0.5	105
San Francisco	29	26	.527	1.0	1.5	106
Chicago	28	26	.519	1.5	3.0	106
Cincinnati	29	27	.518	1.5	3.0	105
Atlanta	27	28	.491	3.0	10.5	104
Florida	27	31	.466	4.5	19.0	101
Pttsburgh	26	30	.464	4.5	19.0	102
San Diego	26	30	.464	4.5	19.0	102
Houston	25	30	.455	5.0	24.0	102
Arizona	25	32	.439	6.0	34.0	101
Colorado	25	32	.439	6.0	34.0	101
Washington	15	40	.273	15.0	142.0	92

Edgy DC
Jun 15 2009 08:38 PM

Florida is making another small move in the east, while the Mets have relinquished the wild card for now.

Colrado has absolutely exploded, knocking a ton of net games back off as they move from next to last to the middle of the pack.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	36	25	.590	---	---	---
New York	32	29	.525	4.0	4.0	98
Florida	32	33	.492	6.0	8.0	94
Atlanta	30	32	.482	6.5	9.5	95
Washington	16	45	.262	20.0	63.5	82

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
San Francisco	34	28	.548	---	---	---
St. Louis	34	30	.531	1.0	1.0	99
New York	32	29	.525	1.5	2.0	100
Cincinnati	31	31	.500	3.0	6.5	98
Chicago	30	30	.500	3.0	6.5	99
Florida	32	33	.492	3.5	9.0	96
Colorado	31	32	.492	3.5	9.0	101
Atlanta	30	32	.482	4.0	11.5	97
Pttsburgh	30	33	.476	4.5	16.5	96
Houston	29	32	.475	4.5	16.5	97
San Diego	28	34	.452	6.0	31.5	95
Arizona	27	37	.422	8.0	53.5	92
Washington	16	45	.262	17.5	167.5	84

Willets Point
Jun 15 2009 10:02 PM

All thing considered, 4 GB in mid-June ain't too shabby.

Gwreck
Jun 15 2009 11:01 PM

The Phillies aren't as good as they were last year (particularly Lidge and Rollins). I can certainly see the Mets passing them, maybe with a Philly injury and the Mets getting some players back.

Edgy DC
Jun 16 2009 05:30 AM

The Mets have turn it on, though. One way, and not a crazy one, of looking at "The Phillies aren't as good as they were last year (particularly Lidge and Rollins)," is to realize the Phils sure have the potential to get better.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 16 2009 12:36 PM

="metirish (in another thread)":20pgmzma]With 101 games to go what would the Mets need to do realistically the rest of the way? After they fired Willie they went 55-38 in the remaining 93 games .

Need to win 60 games?[/quote:20pgmzma]

I haven't done this yet this year, but here's what Baseball Prospectus is currently saying:


Average wins by position in NL East:  92.7 86.4 80.7 74.6 61.7 92.8
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          36   25   .514   88.8   73.2   46.66633   14.85141   61.51774         .04575  -1.48791
Mets              32   29   .544   87.7   74.3   41.41762   13.35543   54.77305         .17262  -0.79291
Marlins           32   33   .485   79.3   82.7    6.56945    4.60971   11.17916         .04267   6.61307
Braves            30   32   .485   78.1   83.9    5.33545    3.61399    8.94944         .10715  -7.83416
Nationals         16   45   .456   62.1   99.9     .01115     .00837     .01952       -0.00110  -0.04799

The Dodgers are at 97.4% for the playoffs, 94.3 for the division. The most likely wild card team is Colorado, currently in 3rd place, with 17.4%. (Phillies are the second most likely wild card, followed by the Mets and the Giants.)

In the American League, the Red Sox score highest, at 77.8% for the playoffs. Yankees are at 47.0%. They both are about equal for the wild card (at 26 to 27 per cent), but the Red Sox are way ahead for the division, leading 50.4% to 20.6%.

I can see why that Orioles fan is boasting, by the way. His team's chances: .05655 division .22353 wild card .28008 overall.

HahnSolo
Jun 16 2009 12:45 PM

Oh, god no, not the BP projections! I vowed not to read these after absorbing them for 2 straight Septembers. have mercy on me, Grimm.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 16 2009 12:53 PM

Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet.

I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.

Ashie62
Jun 17 2009 04:52 AM

BP Over 50/50 shot...Was kinda hoping for 80 percent wire to wire..Probably asking to much on my end

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 17 2009 05:36 AM

Picked up a game on the whole division last nite.

Centerfield
Jun 17 2009 07:17 AM

="Benjamin Grimm":wvotfwll]Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet.

I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.[/quote:wvotfwll]

You think they're gonna run away with the division? Wow, that's some confidence.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 25 2009 01:56 PM

One game out of first place. If Tampa Bay does us a favor tonight, it'll be only a half.

Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 25 2009 01:58 PM

We got a cupcake at home coming up, I don't see how we could get out of this weekend not in first.

Edgy DC
Jun 25 2009 10:51 PM

Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Jul 31 2009 07:51 AM

The whole field has truncated since the last update, with expansion brethren Colorado and Florida heating up the most. Even Washington has gained some ground.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	37	33	.529	---	---	---
New York	37	34	.521	0.5	0.5	92
Florida	38	36	.514	1.0	1.5	90
Atlanta	34	38	.472	4.0	10.5	88
Washington	21	49	.300	16.0	58.5	77

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
San Francisco	39	32	.549	---	---	---
Milwaukee	38	34	.528	1.5	1.4	99
New York	37	34	.521	2.0	2.5	90
Colorado	37	35	.514	2.5	4.0	89
Florida	38	36	.514	2.5	4.0	88
Cincinnati	35	36	.493	4.0	11.5	88
Chicago	34	35	.493	4.0	11.5	89
Atlanta	34	38	.472	5.5	22.0	86
Houston	33	37	.471	5.5	22.0	87
Pttsburgh	33	39	.458	6.5	31.0	85
San Diego	31	40	.437	8.0	50.5	84
Arizona	30	42	.417	9.5	62.5	82
Washington	21	49	.300	17.5	158.5	75

Willets Point
Jun 25 2009 11:11 PM

="Benjamin Grimm":3i3p78g1]Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.[/quote:3i3p78g1]

That can be interpreted in two different ways:

1. The Mets will depart the city of Philadelphia having gained first place for themselves.
2. The Mets will lose and thus the team from Philadelphia will remain in sole possession of first place.

Gwreck
Jun 25 2009 11:31 PM

Which do you think it is?

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 26 2009 05:45 AM

Let me rephrase then...

Perhaps the Mets, upon their departure from Philadelphia next week, will find themselves with the best record in the National League East.

Edgy DC
Jun 26 2009 08:45 PM

Hey, we're in first place.

Edgy DC
Jul 07 2009 06:11 AM

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 07 2009 07:18 AM

Wow, I haven't posted since the Mets were in first.

The good news is that, in the day and a half since the Mets last played (and lost), they have passed two teams (one intradivision) in the standings. The bad news is that the sterategy of moving ahead by not playing isn't very sustainable.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	43	37	.538	---	---	---	48.17926
Florida	43	41	.512	2.0	2.0	79	18.79686
New York	39	42	.481	4.5	7.0	78	21.36100
Atlanta	39	43	.476	5.0	8.5	77	11.65843
Washington	24	55	.304	19.0	64.5	64	0.00446

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	45	37	.549	---	---	---	24.55501
Colorado	43	39	.524	2.0	2.0	79	36.45378
Milwaukee	43	39	.524	2.0	2.0	79	5.20361
Florida	41	39	.513	3.0	5.0	79	2.99581
Chicago	43	41	.512	3.0	5.0	77	3.12304
Cincinnati	40	41	.494	4.5	12.5	77	1.71817
Houston	40	41	.494	4.5	12.5	77	1.13201
New York	39	42	.481	5.5	19.5	76	3.12304
Atlanta	39	43	.476	6.0	23.5	75	2.08225
Pttsburgh	37	46	.446	8.5	46.0	72	0.56024
San Diego	35	47	.427	10.0	61.0	71	0.14075
Arizona	34	49	.410	11.5	77.5	69	0.26129
Washington	24	56	.300	20.0	179.5	62	0.00053

Benjamin Grimm
Jul 07 2009 06:51 AM

Yikes... eighth place in the Wild Card race? Just a few weeks ago they were in first or second.

Things look pretty grim, but not so bad that a sustained hot streak wouldn't cure.

But is this team capable of a sustained hot streak? Sure doesn't look like it.

Edgy DC
Jul 07 2009 07:22 AM

The overlooked here continues to be the turnabout Colorado had had over the last few weeks.

I ain't telling you what to believe, but if you want to still root, take it one team at a time. Root for the Mets, and root like heck against Houston.

Once they pass Houston, the Astros become the Mets allies in helping them pick off the teams ahead.

I'm not going to tell you it's not a slog ahead.

TransMonk
Jul 08 2009 08:07 AM

39-43.

This is the first time the Mets have been 4 games under .500 since 9/17/05.

metirish
Jul 08 2009 08:09 AM

The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.

Edgy DC
Jul 13 2009 08:23 AM

The pattern of fortune's vunlerability to change dramatically each day in the NL East lends an air of bigitude to the Mets upcoming series with the Braves.

Is anybody in the press noticing the extended surge of the Rockies? Look how dramatically they lead without leading in the wildcard race.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	48	38	.558	---	---	---	60.36533
Florida	46	44	.511	4.0	4.0	71	15.70618
Atlanta	43	45	.489	6.0	8.0	70	12.38783
New York	42	45	.483	6.5	9.5	70	11.54009
Washington	26	61	.299	22.5	73.5	54	0.00058

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	49	39	.557	---	---	---	27.11857
Colorado	47	41	.534	2.0	2.0	73	45.51423
Milwaukee	45	43	.511	4.0	6.0	71	2.96857
Florida	46	44	.511	4.0	6.0	40	3.00459
Chicago	43	43	.500	5.0	10.0	71	3.18395
Houston	44	44	.500	5.0	10.0	70	0.71723
Atlanta	43	45	.489	6.0	16.0	69	1.13201
Cincinnati	42	45	.483	6.5	19.5	69	0.68224
New York	42	45	.483	6.5	19.5	69	2.23495
Pttsburgh	38	50	.432	11.0	60.0	64	0.12630
Arizona	38	51	.427	11.5	65.0	62	0.19441
San Diego	36	52	.409	13.0	81.5	62	0.01837
Washington	26	61	.299	22.5	195.5	53	0.00010

Nymr83
Jul 13 2009 08:50 AM

]Washington 26 61 .299 22.5 73.5 54 0.00058

so they'll win the division 6 times out of 1,000,000? that takes into account the chances that they trade for Albert Pujols, Tim Lincecum, Hanley Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Evan Longoria, and Zack Greinke all before the end of the day, right?

Edgy DC
Jul 13 2009 08:56 AM

Plague years, I believe.

Nymr83
Jul 13 2009 08:59 AM

I also did not take into account the chances that the Mets, Braves, Marlins, and Phillies would all get paid off to lose the rest of their games.

Edgy DC
Jul 27 2009 02:02 PM

Chicago --- recently compared to the Mets as far as being disappointing --- has re-asserted themselves and edged ahead of the Cards, thought St. Louis still is shown as more likely to win the division according to Baseball Prospectus. The Mets series win helped put a brake on a long streaking period by Houston climbing the standings, and it also allowed them to pass Cincinnati. So the Reds are now one of the teams you are allowed to root for. Milwaukee is sliding and their the next team we are looking for the Mets to pick off.

Washington is eliminated from both races to the fifth decimal place of a percentage point.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	56	40	.583	---	---	---	71.92603
Atlanta	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	18.94809
Florida	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	6.65038
New York	46	51	.474	10.5	18.5	56	2.47551
Washington	30	68	.306	27.0	84.5	39	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	54	44	.551	---	---	---	58.03895
San Francisco	52	46	.531	2.0	2.0	63	9.07787
St. Louis	53	48	.525	2.5	3.0	61	3.54684
Atlanta	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	8.31609
Florida	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	3.47697
Houston	50	48	.510	4.0	8.5	61	0.87862
Milwaukee	49	49	.500	5.0	14.5	60	0.89282
New York	46	51	.474	7.5	32.0	58	0.37380
Cincinnati	44	53	.454	9.5	48.0	56	0.07017
Pttsburgh	43	55	.439	11.0	61.5	54	0.02579
Arizona	43	56	.434	11.5	66.5	53	0.09422
San Diego	38	61	.384	16.5	121.5	48	0.00010
Washington	30	68	.306	24.0	211.5	41	0.00000

Edgy DC
Jul 31 2009 07:45 AM

Not a lot of movement during the series, except, you know, the Mets knocked Colorado off the top perch in the Wild Card race. No matter, says Baseball Prospectus, who is still doubling down on the Rockies.

The Mets are only a game closer to the top, but cut their net gap from 32 to 26, so that's good. Similarly, they pulled three games closer in the Net column in the division race, such as it is.

In other words, this run has been nice, but it has to be sustained to be meaningful.

Catching Milwaukee and/or Houston over the next few days would be very meaningful.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	58	42	.580	---	---	---	73.50793
Florida	53	49	.520	6.0	6.0	56	8.16545
Atlanta	52	50	.510	7.0	8.0	55	15.18698
New York	49	52	.485	9.5	15.5	53	3.13963
Washington	32	70	.314	27.0	85.5	35	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	56	46	.549	---	---	---	18.97177
Colorado	55	47	.539	1.0	1.0	60	45.52084
St. Louis	56	49	.533	1.5	2.0	58	6.05652
Florida	53	49	.520	3.0	6.5	58	4.07728
Atlanta	52	50	.510	4.0	10.5	57	6.77887
Houston	51	51	.500	5.0	15.5	56	0.65272
Milwaukee	51	51	.500	5.0	15.5	56	0.78867
New York	49	52	.485	6.5	26.0	55	0.62566
Cincinnati	45	56	.446	10.5	58.0	51	0.01369
Arizona	44	58	.431	12.0	71.5	49	0.04786
Pttsburgh	43	58	.426	12.5	76.5	49	0.00565
San Diego	41	62	.398	15.5	109.5	45	0.00005
Washington	32	70	.314	24.0	211.5	37	0.00000

Edgy DC
Aug 04 2009 12:41 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	56	40	.583	---	---	---	74.89575
Atlanta	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	13.43997
Florida	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	10.06658
New York	46	51	.474	10.5	18.5	56	1.59770
Washington	30	68	.306	27.0	84.5	39	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	54	44	.551	---	---	---	58.95294
San Francisco	52	46	.531	2.0	2.0	63	16.21132
St. Louis	53	48	.525	2.5	3.0	61	3.44353
Atlanta	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	2.64151
Florida	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	3.85554
Houston	50	48	.510	4.0	8.5	61	0.39682
Milwaukee	49	49	.500	5.0	14.5	60	0.44886
New York	46	51	.474	7.5	32.0	58	0.12738
Cincinnati	44	53	.454	9.5	48.0	56	0.00121
Pttsburgh	43	55	.439	11.0	61.5	54	0.00172
Arizona	43	56	.434	11.5	66.5	53	0.06649
San Diego	38	61	.384	16.5	121.5	48	0.00031
Washington	30	68	.306	24.0	211.5	41	0.00000

Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%

Ashie62
Aug 04 2009 12:50 PM

="metirish":37imwhfz]The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.[/quote:37imwhfz]

We have a winner! Give the man a set of steaknives

TransMonk
Aug 04 2009 12:51 PM

="Edgy DC":1wacunne]
Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%[/quote:1wacunne]

Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007:
99.80%

Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.

Ashie62
Aug 04 2009 01:00 PM

="TransMonk":1oi9gbzs]

="Edgy DC":1oi9gbzs]
Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%[/quote:1oi9gbzs]

Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007:
99.80%

Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.[/quote:1oi9gbzs]

Wow** Strangely that just made my day. After all they are the Amazin Mets

Edgy DC
Aug 06 2009 08:06 AM

Well, that lousy loss the night before last burns the Mets badly as their net post-season odds dip toward the 1% mark. Milwaukee moves up a bit, so the Mets have to eye Houston first, but you know, the Fish are slipping also.

San Fran re-takes the top wildcard slot, but Baseball Prospectus still is totally not impressed. They love the Rocks.

San Diego joins the Nats among teams not shouldered with the burden of a visible post-season possiblity.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	60	45	.571	---	---	---	75.75257
Florida	55	52	.514	6.0	6.0	51	9.14475
Atlanta	55	53	.509	6.5	7.0	50	14.03328
New York	51	56	.477	10.0	17.5	47	1.06940
Washington	36	72	.333	25.5	79.5	31	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	60	48	.556	---	---	---	22.82055
Colorado	59	48	.551	0.5	0.5	55	54.46296
St. Louis	59	51	.536	2.0	3.5	54	2.71764
Florida	55	52	.514	4.5	11.0	52	2.38452
Atlanta	55	53	.509	5.0	13.0	51	3.43947
Milwaukee	54	54	.500	6.0	18.0	50	0.41470
Houston	53	55	.491	7.0	24.0	48	0.11615
New York	51	56	.477	8.5	34.5	47	0.27858
Arizona	49	59	.454	11.0	54.5	44	0.11468
Cincinnati	46	61	.430	13.5	77.0	42	0.00048
Pttsburgh	45	62	.421	14.5	87.0	41	0.00063
San Diego	44	65	.404	16.5	109.0	38	0.00000
Washington	36	72	.333	24.0	199.0	31	0.00000

Edgy DC
Aug 10 2009 07:57 PM

The Mets are Santa Claus right now, giving hope to all the poor children, first Arizona, then San Diego, who actually has come back from having no chance of winning within five decimal places of a percentage point. Mercy.

Not so resuscitated is Washington, who despite winning a fuky eight straight, still aren't showing any numbers but goose eggs, but they've closed their wild card gap from 199 net games to 173. Another seven months at this pace and who knows?

Normally I'd cheer the Nats onward, reasoning that any success by a team behind the Mets in the standings helps the Mets pick off opponents, but this week stank so solidly that I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings.

Show me something, SHaMs.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	61	48	.560	---	---	---	58.10719
Florida	58	53	.523	4.0	4.0	49	15.91526
Atlanta	58	54	.518	4.5	5.0	48	25.56209
New York	52	59	.468	10.0	21.5	43	0.41546
Washington	40	72	.357	22.5	71.5	30	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	61	50	.550	---	---	---	51.36310
San Francisco	61	50	.550	---	---	---	18.00222
Chicago	58	51	.532	2.0	4.0	51	4.56220
Florida	58	53	.523	3.0	7.0	49	3.87031
Atlanta	58	54	.518	3.5	9.0	48	4.75462
Houston	55	56	.495	6.0	21.5	46	0.16014
Milwaukee	55	56	.495	6.0	21.5	46	0.41311
New York	52	59	.468	9.0	42.5	43	0.08468
Arizona	50	62	.446	11.5	62.5	40	0.03717
Cincinnati	48	62	.436	12.5	71.5	40	0.00078
San Diego	47	66	.416	15.0	96.5	36	0.00003
Pttsburgh	45	66	.405	16.0	107.5	36	0.00000
Washington	40	72	.357	21.5	173.5	30	0.00000

Elster88
Aug 10 2009 08:55 PM

]I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings.

That just depressed the hell out of me.

duan
Aug 11 2009 05:34 AM

i don't know

every time they look like they *just might* put something together that'd mean they'd claw their way TOWARDS being at least able to duke it out in September they lose two straight and fall back off. I'm still cool with saying if they go 13-6 or something in the remaining August games they'll be well in it, but there's only so many times they can fail to actually have one of those runs and still be able to put enough of them together.
We've really missed a healthy John Maine.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Aug 11 2009 12:06 PM

Re: i don't know

="duan":exl5k9ys]We've really missed a healthy John Maine.[/quote:exl5k9ys]

Since mid-2007.

Edgy DC
Aug 11 2009 12:53 PM

We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.

duan
Aug 11 2009 05:08 PM

="Edgy DC":20movskg]We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.[/quote:20movskg]
totally, it's just that Pelfrey & Hernandez seem to alternate good & bad outings and whoever's in the 4th & 5th slots is usually pretty junky so on the days where we don't score 7 runs we lose more then half the time. I sorta feel if we just had one more stable starter we'd be close to .500 now and if the batters came back could make a go of it.

May 25, 2009

Folks have been standing still the last two days, except Florida.

Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	24	19	.558	--	--	--
New York	24	20	.545	0.5	0.5	119
Atlanta	23	21	.523	1.5	2.5	118
Florida	21	25	.457	4.5	10.5	115
Washington	13	31	.295	11.5	39.5	110

May 27, 2009

Ahem.

Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
New York	26	20	.565	---	---	---
Philadelphia	25	20	.556	0.5	0.5	117
Atlanta	23	22	.511	2.5	4.5	115
Florida	22	26	.458	5.0	12.0	111
Washington	13	33	.283	13.0	41.0	104

Elsewhere, we still have the same record as Cincinnati, and the Blue Jays are playing like chumps and better stop.

Benjamin Grimm · May 28, 2009

Given all the struggles the Mets have had this season, the injuries and that daunting road trip, first place on May 28, and six games above .500 is awfully darn good.

Hopefully they beat up on the Pirates and Nationals on the next road trip and start opening up a bit of a lead.

May 28, 2009

By the same token, the Phils are within 0.5 game without a starting pitcher with an era <4.50 (QS standard) and a closer with a serious case of the yips.

I'll be very surprised if the NL WC comes from the East.

May 28, 2009

="Edgy DC":31o8fwpe]
...., and the Blue Jays are playing like chumps and better stop.[/quote:31o8fwpe]

Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Mets. If they rapidly fall out of contention, Halliday may be put on the trading bloc(k). There's no way he'll be traded to the Red Sox or Yanquis, which is likely to make the Phils the number one suitors.

Ceetar
May 28 2009 06:37 AM

Getting Johan didn't work for a better Mets team last year. Even if the Phillies could pull of Halladay (they can't), it wouldn't be enough. There issues run a lot deeper than one SP can fix.

soupcan
May 28 2009 06:45 AM

="Triple Dee":16wgdhxn]Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Mets. If they rapidly fall out of contention, Halliday may be put on the trading bloc(k). There's no way he'll be traded to the Red Sox or Yanquis, which is likely to make the Phils the number one suitors.[/quote:16wgdhxn]

Well, I'm certain Fman would agree with me when I say that unhealthy BJs are just bad news all-around, but even if the Phils are the most likely suitor that doesn't necessarily mean Halliday is theirs for the taking. If I'm the BJs I'm looking for a lot for Roy. Do the Phillies have what it would take? I would think it would take young, proven ML talent at least.

Benjamin Grimm
May 28 2009 06:52 AM

And remember, it was the White Sox who almost closed a deal for Peavy. They seem to be big players in the starting pitcher market.

If I'm shopping a starting pitcher, they'd be among the first teams I'd call.

Fman99
May 28 2009 06:56 AM

="Triple Dee"]

="Edgy DC"]
...., and the Blue Jays are playing like chumps and better stop.

Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Mets.

Too much teeth?

Triple Dee
May 28 2009 08:39 AM

(My apologies for hijacking the Standings thread, maybe these posts should be moved to another thread.)

="soupcan":24grmrc0]
but even if the Phils are the most likely suitor that doesn't necessarily mean Halliday is theirs for the taking. If I'm the BJs I'm looking for a lot for Roy. Do the Phillies have what it would take? I would think it would take young, proven ML talent at least.
[/quote:24grmrc0]

You're right, presently they probably don't have enough for Halliday. Their top pitching prospect, Carlos Carrasco is having a pretty bad time in AAA. They have Kyle Drabek (presumably Doug's son?) who is highly regarded but he's playing A ball . Other than they have some decent OF which the BJs don't need.

="BG":24grmrc0]
And remember, it was the White Sox who almost closed a deal for Peavy. They seem to be big players in the starting pitcher market.
[/quote:24grmrc0]
The ChiSox probably need starting pitching help now. I suspect by the time the BJ's would want to deal Halliday, they'll be as far out as they are.

="Fman99":24grmrc0]
Too much teeth?
[/quote:24grmrc0]
Gutter.

smg58
May 28 2009 01:35 PM

="Triple Dee":20e91cie]Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Phils. If they rapidly fall out of contention, Halliday may be put on the trading bloc(k). There's no way he'll be traded to the Red Sox or Yanquis, which is likely to make the Mets the number one suitors.[/quote:20e91cie]

There, that's better.

In all seriousness, if Halladay and/or Cliff Lee go on the block we can't cry poverty.

Edgy DC
Jun 02 2009 02:13 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	29	20	.592	---	---	---
New York	28	22	.560	1.5	1.5	112
Atlanta	25	25	.500	4.5	7.5	109
Florida	24	28	.462	6.5	13.5	106
Washington	13	36	.265	16	51.5	98

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 08 2009 04:49 AM

I know we all pretend to be disinterested in the Wild Card (until, of course, it's the last weekend of the season and the division has been clinched and we desperately want the Wild Card) but the Mets are currently in a virtual tie for the WC lead with St. Louis. (They're actually .001 ahead.)

Just thought I'd mention it.

Frayed Knot
Jun 08 2009 07:43 AM

It helps that whilst Met fans wuz crying over the sweep in Pittsburgh and deeming barely acceptable their 2 of 3 over the Nats (and ranting about how good teams "don't let that happen", etc) the Cards were getting swept by the Rockies.

Frayed Knot
Jun 08 2009 03:00 PM

BTW, that Cards-Rox series which I assumed was a 3-game sweep, wasn't.
It was actually a 4-game series with the getaway game today ... and now it's a 4-game sweep by the Rockies. And in StL too.

Edgy DC
Jun 08 2009 07:32 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	33	22	.600	---	---	---
New York	30	25	.545	3.0	3.0	105
Atlanta	27	28	.491	6.0	9.0	102
Florida	27	31	.466	7.5	13.5	99
Washington	15	40	.273	18.0	55.5	90

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
New York	30	25	.545	---	---	---
St. Louis	31	27	.534	0.5	0.5	105
San Francisco	29	26	.527	1.0	1.5	106
Chicago	28	26	.519	1.5	3.0	106
Cincinnati	29	27	.518	1.5	3.0	105
Atlanta	27	28	.491	3.0	10.5	104
Florida	27	31	.466	4.5	19.0	101
Pttsburgh	26	30	.464	4.5	19.0	102
San Diego	26	30	.464	4.5	19.0	102
Houston	25	30	.455	5.0	24.0	102
Arizona	25	32	.439	6.0	34.0	101
Colorado	25	32	.439	6.0	34.0	101
Washington	15	40	.273	15.0	142.0	92

Edgy DC
Jun 15 2009 08:38 PM

Florida is making another small move in the east, while the Mets have relinquished the wild card for now.

Colrado has absolutely exploded, knocking a ton of net games back off as they move from next to last to the middle of the pack.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	36	25	.590	---	---	---
New York	32	29	.525	4.0	4.0	98
Florida	32	33	.492	6.0	8.0	94
Atlanta	30	32	.482	6.5	9.5	95
Washington	16	45	.262	20.0	63.5	82

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
San Francisco	34	28	.548	---	---	---
St. Louis	34	30	.531	1.0	1.0	99
New York	32	29	.525	1.5	2.0	100
Cincinnati	31	31	.500	3.0	6.5	98
Chicago	30	30	.500	3.0	6.5	99
Florida	32	33	.492	3.5	9.0	96
Colorado	31	32	.492	3.5	9.0	101
Atlanta	30	32	.482	4.0	11.5	97
Pttsburgh	30	33	.476	4.5	16.5	96
Houston	29	32	.475	4.5	16.5	97
San Diego	28	34	.452	6.0	31.5	95
Arizona	27	37	.422	8.0	53.5	92
Washington	16	45	.262	17.5	167.5	84

Willets Point
Jun 15 2009 10:02 PM

All thing considered, 4 GB in mid-June ain't too shabby.

Gwreck
Jun 15 2009 11:01 PM

The Phillies aren't as good as they were last year (particularly Lidge and Rollins). I can certainly see the Mets passing them, maybe with a Philly injury and the Mets getting some players back.

Edgy DC
Jun 16 2009 05:30 AM

The Mets have turn it on, though. One way, and not a crazy one, of looking at "The Phillies aren't as good as they were last year (particularly Lidge and Rollins)," is to realize the Phils sure have the potential to get better.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 16 2009 12:36 PM

="metirish (in another thread)":20pgmzma]With 101 games to go what would the Mets need to do realistically the rest of the way? After they fired Willie they went 55-38 in the remaining 93 games .

Need to win 60 games?[/quote:20pgmzma]

I haven't done this yet this year, but here's what Baseball Prospectus is currently saying:


Average wins by position in NL East:  92.7 86.4 80.7 74.6 61.7 92.8
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          36   25   .514   88.8   73.2   46.66633   14.85141   61.51774         .04575  -1.48791
Mets              32   29   .544   87.7   74.3   41.41762   13.35543   54.77305         .17262  -0.79291
Marlins           32   33   .485   79.3   82.7    6.56945    4.60971   11.17916         .04267   6.61307
Braves            30   32   .485   78.1   83.9    5.33545    3.61399    8.94944         .10715  -7.83416
Nationals         16   45   .456   62.1   99.9     .01115     .00837     .01952       -0.00110  -0.04799

The Dodgers are at 97.4% for the playoffs, 94.3 for the division. The most likely wild card team is Colorado, currently in 3rd place, with 17.4%. (Phillies are the second most likely wild card, followed by the Mets and the Giants.)

In the American League, the Red Sox score highest, at 77.8% for the playoffs. Yankees are at 47.0%. They both are about equal for the wild card (at 26 to 27 per cent), but the Red Sox are way ahead for the division, leading 50.4% to 20.6%.

I can see why that Orioles fan is boasting, by the way. His team's chances: .05655 division .22353 wild card .28008 overall.

HahnSolo
Jun 16 2009 12:45 PM

Oh, god no, not the BP projections! I vowed not to read these after absorbing them for 2 straight Septembers. have mercy on me, Grimm.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 16 2009 12:53 PM

Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet.

I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.

Ashie62
Jun 17 2009 04:52 AM

BP Over 50/50 shot...Was kinda hoping for 80 percent wire to wire..Probably asking to much on my end

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 17 2009 05:36 AM

Picked up a game on the whole division last nite.

Centerfield
Jun 17 2009 07:17 AM

="Benjamin Grimm":wvotfwll]Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet.

I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.[/quote:wvotfwll]

You think they're gonna run away with the division? Wow, that's some confidence.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 25 2009 01:56 PM

One game out of first place. If Tampa Bay does us a favor tonight, it'll be only a half.

Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 25 2009 01:58 PM

We got a cupcake at home coming up, I don't see how we could get out of this weekend not in first.

Edgy DC
Jun 25 2009 10:51 PM

Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Jul 31 2009 07:51 AM

The whole field has truncated since the last update, with expansion brethren Colorado and Florida heating up the most. Even Washington has gained some ground.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	37	33	.529	---	---	---
New York	37	34	.521	0.5	0.5	92
Florida	38	36	.514	1.0	1.5	90
Atlanta	34	38	.472	4.0	10.5	88
Washington	21	49	.300	16.0	58.5	77

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
San Francisco	39	32	.549	---	---	---
Milwaukee	38	34	.528	1.5	1.4	99
New York	37	34	.521	2.0	2.5	90
Colorado	37	35	.514	2.5	4.0	89
Florida	38	36	.514	2.5	4.0	88
Cincinnati	35	36	.493	4.0	11.5	88
Chicago	34	35	.493	4.0	11.5	89
Atlanta	34	38	.472	5.5	22.0	86
Houston	33	37	.471	5.5	22.0	87
Pttsburgh	33	39	.458	6.5	31.0	85
San Diego	31	40	.437	8.0	50.5	84
Arizona	30	42	.417	9.5	62.5	82
Washington	21	49	.300	17.5	158.5	75

Willets Point
Jun 25 2009 11:11 PM

="Benjamin Grimm":3i3p78g1]Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.[/quote:3i3p78g1]

That can be interpreted in two different ways:

1. The Mets will depart the city of Philadelphia having gained first place for themselves.
2. The Mets will lose and thus the team from Philadelphia will remain in sole possession of first place.

Gwreck
Jun 25 2009 11:31 PM

Which do you think it is?

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 26 2009 05:45 AM

Let me rephrase then...

Perhaps the Mets, upon their departure from Philadelphia next week, will find themselves with the best record in the National League East.

Edgy DC
Jun 26 2009 08:45 PM

Hey, we're in first place.

Edgy DC
Jul 07 2009 06:11 AM

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 07 2009 07:18 AM

Wow, I haven't posted since the Mets were in first.

The good news is that, in the day and a half since the Mets last played (and lost), they have passed two teams (one intradivision) in the standings. The bad news is that the sterategy of moving ahead by not playing isn't very sustainable.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	43	37	.538	---	---	---	48.17926
Florida	43	41	.512	2.0	2.0	79	18.79686
New York	39	42	.481	4.5	7.0	78	21.36100
Atlanta	39	43	.476	5.0	8.5	77	11.65843
Washington	24	55	.304	19.0	64.5	64	0.00446

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	45	37	.549	---	---	---	24.55501
Colorado	43	39	.524	2.0	2.0	79	36.45378
Milwaukee	43	39	.524	2.0	2.0	79	5.20361
Florida	41	39	.513	3.0	5.0	79	2.99581
Chicago	43	41	.512	3.0	5.0	77	3.12304
Cincinnati	40	41	.494	4.5	12.5	77	1.71817
Houston	40	41	.494	4.5	12.5	77	1.13201
New York	39	42	.481	5.5	19.5	76	3.12304
Atlanta	39	43	.476	6.0	23.5	75	2.08225
Pttsburgh	37	46	.446	8.5	46.0	72	0.56024
San Diego	35	47	.427	10.0	61.0	71	0.14075
Arizona	34	49	.410	11.5	77.5	69	0.26129
Washington	24	56	.300	20.0	179.5	62	0.00053

Benjamin Grimm
Jul 07 2009 06:51 AM

Yikes... eighth place in the Wild Card race? Just a few weeks ago they were in first or second.

Things look pretty grim, but not so bad that a sustained hot streak wouldn't cure.

But is this team capable of a sustained hot streak? Sure doesn't look like it.

Edgy DC
Jul 07 2009 07:22 AM

The overlooked here continues to be the turnabout Colorado had had over the last few weeks.

I ain't telling you what to believe, but if you want to still root, take it one team at a time. Root for the Mets, and root like heck against Houston.

Once they pass Houston, the Astros become the Mets allies in helping them pick off the teams ahead.

I'm not going to tell you it's not a slog ahead.

TransMonk
Jul 08 2009 08:07 AM

39-43.

This is the first time the Mets have been 4 games under .500 since 9/17/05.

metirish
Jul 08 2009 08:09 AM

The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.

Edgy DC
Jul 13 2009 08:23 AM

The pattern of fortune's vunlerability to change dramatically each day in the NL East lends an air of bigitude to the Mets upcoming series with the Braves.

Is anybody in the press noticing the extended surge of the Rockies? Look how dramatically they lead without leading in the wildcard race.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	48	38	.558	---	---	---	60.36533
Florida	46	44	.511	4.0	4.0	71	15.70618
Atlanta	43	45	.489	6.0	8.0	70	12.38783
New York	42	45	.483	6.5	9.5	70	11.54009
Washington	26	61	.299	22.5	73.5	54	0.00058

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	49	39	.557	---	---	---	27.11857
Colorado	47	41	.534	2.0	2.0	73	45.51423
Milwaukee	45	43	.511	4.0	6.0	71	2.96857
Florida	46	44	.511	4.0	6.0	40	3.00459
Chicago	43	43	.500	5.0	10.0	71	3.18395
Houston	44	44	.500	5.0	10.0	70	0.71723
Atlanta	43	45	.489	6.0	16.0	69	1.13201
Cincinnati	42	45	.483	6.5	19.5	69	0.68224
New York	42	45	.483	6.5	19.5	69	2.23495
Pttsburgh	38	50	.432	11.0	60.0	64	0.12630
Arizona	38	51	.427	11.5	65.0	62	0.19441
San Diego	36	52	.409	13.0	81.5	62	0.01837
Washington	26	61	.299	22.5	195.5	53	0.00010

Nymr83
Jul 13 2009 08:50 AM

]Washington 26 61 .299 22.5 73.5 54 0.00058

so they'll win the division 6 times out of 1,000,000? that takes into account the chances that they trade for Albert Pujols, Tim Lincecum, Hanley Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Evan Longoria, and Zack Greinke all before the end of the day, right?

Edgy DC
Jul 13 2009 08:56 AM

Plague years, I believe.

Nymr83
Jul 13 2009 08:59 AM

I also did not take into account the chances that the Mets, Braves, Marlins, and Phillies would all get paid off to lose the rest of their games.

Edgy DC
Jul 27 2009 02:02 PM

Chicago --- recently compared to the Mets as far as being disappointing --- has re-asserted themselves and edged ahead of the Cards, thought St. Louis still is shown as more likely to win the division according to Baseball Prospectus. The Mets series win helped put a brake on a long streaking period by Houston climbing the standings, and it also allowed them to pass Cincinnati. So the Reds are now one of the teams you are allowed to root for. Milwaukee is sliding and their the next team we are looking for the Mets to pick off.

Washington is eliminated from both races to the fifth decimal place of a percentage point.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	56	40	.583	---	---	---	71.92603
Atlanta	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	18.94809
Florida	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	6.65038
New York	46	51	.474	10.5	18.5	56	2.47551
Washington	30	68	.306	27.0	84.5	39	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	54	44	.551	---	---	---	58.03895
San Francisco	52	46	.531	2.0	2.0	63	9.07787
St. Louis	53	48	.525	2.5	3.0	61	3.54684
Atlanta	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	8.31609
Florida	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	3.47697
Houston	50	48	.510	4.0	8.5	61	0.87862
Milwaukee	49	49	.500	5.0	14.5	60	0.89282
New York	46	51	.474	7.5	32.0	58	0.37380
Cincinnati	44	53	.454	9.5	48.0	56	0.07017
Pttsburgh	43	55	.439	11.0	61.5	54	0.02579
Arizona	43	56	.434	11.5	66.5	53	0.09422
San Diego	38	61	.384	16.5	121.5	48	0.00010
Washington	30	68	.306	24.0	211.5	41	0.00000

Edgy DC
Jul 31 2009 07:45 AM

Not a lot of movement during the series, except, you know, the Mets knocked Colorado off the top perch in the Wild Card race. No matter, says Baseball Prospectus, who is still doubling down on the Rockies.

The Mets are only a game closer to the top, but cut their net gap from 32 to 26, so that's good. Similarly, they pulled three games closer in the Net column in the division race, such as it is.

In other words, this run has been nice, but it has to be sustained to be meaningful.

Catching Milwaukee and/or Houston over the next few days would be very meaningful.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	58	42	.580	---	---	---	73.50793
Florida	53	49	.520	6.0	6.0	56	8.16545
Atlanta	52	50	.510	7.0	8.0	55	15.18698
New York	49	52	.485	9.5	15.5	53	3.13963
Washington	32	70	.314	27.0	85.5	35	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	56	46	.549	---	---	---	18.97177
Colorado	55	47	.539	1.0	1.0	60	45.52084
St. Louis	56	49	.533	1.5	2.0	58	6.05652
Florida	53	49	.520	3.0	6.5	58	4.07728
Atlanta	52	50	.510	4.0	10.5	57	6.77887
Houston	51	51	.500	5.0	15.5	56	0.65272
Milwaukee	51	51	.500	5.0	15.5	56	0.78867
New York	49	52	.485	6.5	26.0	55	0.62566
Cincinnati	45	56	.446	10.5	58.0	51	0.01369
Arizona	44	58	.431	12.0	71.5	49	0.04786
Pttsburgh	43	58	.426	12.5	76.5	49	0.00565
San Diego	41	62	.398	15.5	109.5	45	0.00005
Washington	32	70	.314	24.0	211.5	37	0.00000

Edgy DC
Aug 04 2009 12:41 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	56	40	.583	---	---	---	74.89575
Atlanta	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	13.43997
Florida	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	10.06658
New York	46	51	.474	10.5	18.5	56	1.59770
Washington	30	68	.306	27.0	84.5	39	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	54	44	.551	---	---	---	58.95294
San Francisco	52	46	.531	2.0	2.0	63	16.21132
St. Louis	53	48	.525	2.5	3.0	61	3.44353
Atlanta	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	2.64151
Florida	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	3.85554
Houston	50	48	.510	4.0	8.5	61	0.39682
Milwaukee	49	49	.500	5.0	14.5	60	0.44886
New York	46	51	.474	7.5	32.0	58	0.12738
Cincinnati	44	53	.454	9.5	48.0	56	0.00121
Pttsburgh	43	55	.439	11.0	61.5	54	0.00172
Arizona	43	56	.434	11.5	66.5	53	0.06649
San Diego	38	61	.384	16.5	121.5	48	0.00031
Washington	30	68	.306	24.0	211.5	41	0.00000

Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%

Ashie62
Aug 04 2009 12:50 PM

="metirish":37imwhfz]The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.[/quote:37imwhfz]

We have a winner! Give the man a set of steaknives

TransMonk
Aug 04 2009 12:51 PM

="Edgy DC":1wacunne]
Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%[/quote:1wacunne]

Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007:
99.80%

Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.

Ashie62
Aug 04 2009 01:00 PM

="TransMonk":1oi9gbzs]

="Edgy DC":1oi9gbzs]
Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%[/quote:1oi9gbzs]

Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007:
99.80%

Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.[/quote:1oi9gbzs]

Wow** Strangely that just made my day. After all they are the Amazin Mets

Edgy DC
Aug 06 2009 08:06 AM

Well, that lousy loss the night before last burns the Mets badly as their net post-season odds dip toward the 1% mark. Milwaukee moves up a bit, so the Mets have to eye Houston first, but you know, the Fish are slipping also.

San Fran re-takes the top wildcard slot, but Baseball Prospectus still is totally not impressed. They love the Rocks.

San Diego joins the Nats among teams not shouldered with the burden of a visible post-season possiblity.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	60	45	.571	---	---	---	75.75257
Florida	55	52	.514	6.0	6.0	51	9.14475
Atlanta	55	53	.509	6.5	7.0	50	14.03328
New York	51	56	.477	10.0	17.5	47	1.06940
Washington	36	72	.333	25.5	79.5	31	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	60	48	.556	---	---	---	22.82055
Colorado	59	48	.551	0.5	0.5	55	54.46296
St. Louis	59	51	.536	2.0	3.5	54	2.71764
Florida	55	52	.514	4.5	11.0	52	2.38452
Atlanta	55	53	.509	5.0	13.0	51	3.43947
Milwaukee	54	54	.500	6.0	18.0	50	0.41470
Houston	53	55	.491	7.0	24.0	48	0.11615
New York	51	56	.477	8.5	34.5	47	0.27858
Arizona	49	59	.454	11.0	54.5	44	0.11468
Cincinnati	46	61	.430	13.5	77.0	42	0.00048
Pttsburgh	45	62	.421	14.5	87.0	41	0.00063
San Diego	44	65	.404	16.5	109.0	38	0.00000
Washington	36	72	.333	24.0	199.0	31	0.00000

Edgy DC
Aug 10 2009 07:57 PM

The Mets are Santa Claus right now, giving hope to all the poor children, first Arizona, then San Diego, who actually has come back from having no chance of winning within five decimal places of a percentage point. Mercy.

Not so resuscitated is Washington, who despite winning a fuky eight straight, still aren't showing any numbers but goose eggs, but they've closed their wild card gap from 199 net games to 173. Another seven months at this pace and who knows?

Normally I'd cheer the Nats onward, reasoning that any success by a team behind the Mets in the standings helps the Mets pick off opponents, but this week stank so solidly that I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings.

Show me something, SHaMs.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	61	48	.560	---	---	---	58.10719
Florida	58	53	.523	4.0	4.0	49	15.91526
Atlanta	58	54	.518	4.5	5.0	48	25.56209
New York	52	59	.468	10.0	21.5	43	0.41546
Washington	40	72	.357	22.5	71.5	30	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	61	50	.550	---	---	---	51.36310
San Francisco	61	50	.550	---	---	---	18.00222
Chicago	58	51	.532	2.0	4.0	51	4.56220
Florida	58	53	.523	3.0	7.0	49	3.87031
Atlanta	58	54	.518	3.5	9.0	48	4.75462
Houston	55	56	.495	6.0	21.5	46	0.16014
Milwaukee	55	56	.495	6.0	21.5	46	0.41311
New York	52	59	.468	9.0	42.5	43	0.08468
Arizona	50	62	.446	11.5	62.5	40	0.03717
Cincinnati	48	62	.436	12.5	71.5	40	0.00078
San Diego	47	66	.416	15.0	96.5	36	0.00003
Pttsburgh	45	66	.405	16.0	107.5	36	0.00000
Washington	40	72	.357	21.5	173.5	30	0.00000

Elster88
Aug 10 2009 08:55 PM

]I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings.

That just depressed the hell out of me.

duan
Aug 11 2009 05:34 AM

i don't know

every time they look like they *just might* put something together that'd mean they'd claw their way TOWARDS being at least able to duke it out in September they lose two straight and fall back off. I'm still cool with saying if they go 13-6 or something in the remaining August games they'll be well in it, but there's only so many times they can fail to actually have one of those runs and still be able to put enough of them together.
We've really missed a healthy John Maine.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Aug 11 2009 12:06 PM

Re: i don't know

="duan":exl5k9ys]We've really missed a healthy John Maine.[/quote:exl5k9ys]

Since mid-2007.

Edgy DC
Aug 11 2009 12:53 PM

We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.

duan
Aug 11 2009 05:08 PM

="Edgy DC":20movskg]We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.[/quote:20movskg]
totally, it's just that Pelfrey & Hernandez seem to alternate good & bad outings and whoever's in the 4th & 5th slots is usually pretty junky so on the days where we don't score 7 runs we lose more then half the time. I sorta feel if we just had one more stable starter we'd be close to .500 now and if the batters came back could make a go of it.

Ceetar · May 28, 2009

Getting Johan didn't work for a better Mets team last year. Even if the Phillies could pull of Halladay (they can't), it wouldn't be enough. There issues run a lot deeper than one SP can fix.

soupcan · May 28, 2009

="Triple Dee":16wgdhxn]Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Mets. If they rapidly fall out of contention, Halliday may be put on the trading bloc(k). There's no way he'll be traded to the Red Sox or Yanquis, which is likely to make the Phils the number one suitors.[/quote:16wgdhxn]

Well, I'm certain Fman would agree with me when I say that unhealthy BJs are just bad news all-around, but even if the Phils are the most likely suitor that doesn't necessarily mean Halliday is theirs for the taking. If I'm the BJs I'm looking for a lot for Roy. Do the Phillies have what it would take? I would think it would take young, proven ML talent at least.

Benjamin Grimm
May 28 2009 06:52 AM

And remember, it was the White Sox who almost closed a deal for Peavy. They seem to be big players in the starting pitcher market.

If I'm shopping a starting pitcher, they'd be among the first teams I'd call.

Fman99
May 28 2009 06:56 AM

="Triple Dee"]

="Edgy DC"]
...., and the Blue Jays are playing like chumps and better stop.

Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Mets.

Too much teeth?

Triple Dee
May 28 2009 08:39 AM

(My apologies for hijacking the Standings thread, maybe these posts should be moved to another thread.)

="soupcan":24grmrc0]
but even if the Phils are the most likely suitor that doesn't necessarily mean Halliday is theirs for the taking. If I'm the BJs I'm looking for a lot for Roy. Do the Phillies have what it would take? I would think it would take young, proven ML talent at least.
[/quote:24grmrc0]

You're right, presently they probably don't have enough for Halliday. Their top pitching prospect, Carlos Carrasco is having a pretty bad time in AAA. They have Kyle Drabek (presumably Doug's son?) who is highly regarded but he's playing A ball . Other than they have some decent OF which the BJs don't need.

="BG":24grmrc0]
And remember, it was the White Sox who almost closed a deal for Peavy. They seem to be big players in the starting pitcher market.
[/quote:24grmrc0]
The ChiSox probably need starting pitching help now. I suspect by the time the BJ's would want to deal Halliday, they'll be as far out as they are.

="Fman99":24grmrc0]
Too much teeth?
[/quote:24grmrc0]
Gutter.

smg58
May 28 2009 01:35 PM

="Triple Dee":20e91cie]Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Phils. If they rapidly fall out of contention, Halliday may be put on the trading bloc(k). There's no way he'll be traded to the Red Sox or Yanquis, which is likely to make the Mets the number one suitors.[/quote:20e91cie]

There, that's better.

In all seriousness, if Halladay and/or Cliff Lee go on the block we can't cry poverty.

Edgy DC
Jun 02 2009 02:13 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	29	20	.592	---	---	---
New York	28	22	.560	1.5	1.5	112
Atlanta	25	25	.500	4.5	7.5	109
Florida	24	28	.462	6.5	13.5	106
Washington	13	36	.265	16	51.5	98

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 08 2009 04:49 AM

I know we all pretend to be disinterested in the Wild Card (until, of course, it's the last weekend of the season and the division has been clinched and we desperately want the Wild Card) but the Mets are currently in a virtual tie for the WC lead with St. Louis. (They're actually .001 ahead.)

Just thought I'd mention it.

Frayed Knot
Jun 08 2009 07:43 AM

It helps that whilst Met fans wuz crying over the sweep in Pittsburgh and deeming barely acceptable their 2 of 3 over the Nats (and ranting about how good teams "don't let that happen", etc) the Cards were getting swept by the Rockies.

Frayed Knot
Jun 08 2009 03:00 PM

BTW, that Cards-Rox series which I assumed was a 3-game sweep, wasn't.
It was actually a 4-game series with the getaway game today ... and now it's a 4-game sweep by the Rockies. And in StL too.

Edgy DC
Jun 08 2009 07:32 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	33	22	.600	---	---	---
New York	30	25	.545	3.0	3.0	105
Atlanta	27	28	.491	6.0	9.0	102
Florida	27	31	.466	7.5	13.5	99
Washington	15	40	.273	18.0	55.5	90

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
New York	30	25	.545	---	---	---
St. Louis	31	27	.534	0.5	0.5	105
San Francisco	29	26	.527	1.0	1.5	106
Chicago	28	26	.519	1.5	3.0	106
Cincinnati	29	27	.518	1.5	3.0	105
Atlanta	27	28	.491	3.0	10.5	104
Florida	27	31	.466	4.5	19.0	101
Pttsburgh	26	30	.464	4.5	19.0	102
San Diego	26	30	.464	4.5	19.0	102
Houston	25	30	.455	5.0	24.0	102
Arizona	25	32	.439	6.0	34.0	101
Colorado	25	32	.439	6.0	34.0	101
Washington	15	40	.273	15.0	142.0	92

Edgy DC
Jun 15 2009 08:38 PM

Florida is making another small move in the east, while the Mets have relinquished the wild card for now.

Colrado has absolutely exploded, knocking a ton of net games back off as they move from next to last to the middle of the pack.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	36	25	.590	---	---	---
New York	32	29	.525	4.0	4.0	98
Florida	32	33	.492	6.0	8.0	94
Atlanta	30	32	.482	6.5	9.5	95
Washington	16	45	.262	20.0	63.5	82

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
San Francisco	34	28	.548	---	---	---
St. Louis	34	30	.531	1.0	1.0	99
New York	32	29	.525	1.5	2.0	100
Cincinnati	31	31	.500	3.0	6.5	98
Chicago	30	30	.500	3.0	6.5	99
Florida	32	33	.492	3.5	9.0	96
Colorado	31	32	.492	3.5	9.0	101
Atlanta	30	32	.482	4.0	11.5	97
Pttsburgh	30	33	.476	4.5	16.5	96
Houston	29	32	.475	4.5	16.5	97
San Diego	28	34	.452	6.0	31.5	95
Arizona	27	37	.422	8.0	53.5	92
Washington	16	45	.262	17.5	167.5	84

Willets Point
Jun 15 2009 10:02 PM

All thing considered, 4 GB in mid-June ain't too shabby.

Gwreck
Jun 15 2009 11:01 PM

The Phillies aren't as good as they were last year (particularly Lidge and Rollins). I can certainly see the Mets passing them, maybe with a Philly injury and the Mets getting some players back.

Edgy DC
Jun 16 2009 05:30 AM

The Mets have turn it on, though. One way, and not a crazy one, of looking at "The Phillies aren't as good as they were last year (particularly Lidge and Rollins)," is to realize the Phils sure have the potential to get better.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 16 2009 12:36 PM

="metirish (in another thread)":20pgmzma]With 101 games to go what would the Mets need to do realistically the rest of the way? After they fired Willie they went 55-38 in the remaining 93 games .

Need to win 60 games?[/quote:20pgmzma]

I haven't done this yet this year, but here's what Baseball Prospectus is currently saying:


Average wins by position in NL East:  92.7 86.4 80.7 74.6 61.7 92.8
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          36   25   .514   88.8   73.2   46.66633   14.85141   61.51774         .04575  -1.48791
Mets              32   29   .544   87.7   74.3   41.41762   13.35543   54.77305         .17262  -0.79291
Marlins           32   33   .485   79.3   82.7    6.56945    4.60971   11.17916         .04267   6.61307
Braves            30   32   .485   78.1   83.9    5.33545    3.61399    8.94944         .10715  -7.83416
Nationals         16   45   .456   62.1   99.9     .01115     .00837     .01952       -0.00110  -0.04799

The Dodgers are at 97.4% for the playoffs, 94.3 for the division. The most likely wild card team is Colorado, currently in 3rd place, with 17.4%. (Phillies are the second most likely wild card, followed by the Mets and the Giants.)

In the American League, the Red Sox score highest, at 77.8% for the playoffs. Yankees are at 47.0%. They both are about equal for the wild card (at 26 to 27 per cent), but the Red Sox are way ahead for the division, leading 50.4% to 20.6%.

I can see why that Orioles fan is boasting, by the way. His team's chances: .05655 division .22353 wild card .28008 overall.

HahnSolo
Jun 16 2009 12:45 PM

Oh, god no, not the BP projections! I vowed not to read these after absorbing them for 2 straight Septembers. have mercy on me, Grimm.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 16 2009 12:53 PM

Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet.

I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.

Ashie62
Jun 17 2009 04:52 AM

BP Over 50/50 shot...Was kinda hoping for 80 percent wire to wire..Probably asking to much on my end

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 17 2009 05:36 AM

Picked up a game on the whole division last nite.

Centerfield
Jun 17 2009 07:17 AM

="Benjamin Grimm":wvotfwll]Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet.

I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.[/quote:wvotfwll]

You think they're gonna run away with the division? Wow, that's some confidence.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 25 2009 01:56 PM

One game out of first place. If Tampa Bay does us a favor tonight, it'll be only a half.

Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 25 2009 01:58 PM

We got a cupcake at home coming up, I don't see how we could get out of this weekend not in first.

Edgy DC
Jun 25 2009 10:51 PM

Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Jul 31 2009 07:51 AM

The whole field has truncated since the last update, with expansion brethren Colorado and Florida heating up the most. Even Washington has gained some ground.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	37	33	.529	---	---	---
New York	37	34	.521	0.5	0.5	92
Florida	38	36	.514	1.0	1.5	90
Atlanta	34	38	.472	4.0	10.5	88
Washington	21	49	.300	16.0	58.5	77

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
San Francisco	39	32	.549	---	---	---
Milwaukee	38	34	.528	1.5	1.4	99
New York	37	34	.521	2.0	2.5	90
Colorado	37	35	.514	2.5	4.0	89
Florida	38	36	.514	2.5	4.0	88
Cincinnati	35	36	.493	4.0	11.5	88
Chicago	34	35	.493	4.0	11.5	89
Atlanta	34	38	.472	5.5	22.0	86
Houston	33	37	.471	5.5	22.0	87
Pttsburgh	33	39	.458	6.5	31.0	85
San Diego	31	40	.437	8.0	50.5	84
Arizona	30	42	.417	9.5	62.5	82
Washington	21	49	.300	17.5	158.5	75

Willets Point
Jun 25 2009 11:11 PM

="Benjamin Grimm":3i3p78g1]Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.[/quote:3i3p78g1]

That can be interpreted in two different ways:

1. The Mets will depart the city of Philadelphia having gained first place for themselves.
2. The Mets will lose and thus the team from Philadelphia will remain in sole possession of first place.

Gwreck
Jun 25 2009 11:31 PM

Which do you think it is?

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 26 2009 05:45 AM

Let me rephrase then...

Perhaps the Mets, upon their departure from Philadelphia next week, will find themselves with the best record in the National League East.

Edgy DC
Jun 26 2009 08:45 PM

Hey, we're in first place.

Edgy DC
Jul 07 2009 06:11 AM

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 07 2009 07:18 AM

Wow, I haven't posted since the Mets were in first.

The good news is that, in the day and a half since the Mets last played (and lost), they have passed two teams (one intradivision) in the standings. The bad news is that the sterategy of moving ahead by not playing isn't very sustainable.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	43	37	.538	---	---	---	48.17926
Florida	43	41	.512	2.0	2.0	79	18.79686
New York	39	42	.481	4.5	7.0	78	21.36100
Atlanta	39	43	.476	5.0	8.5	77	11.65843
Washington	24	55	.304	19.0	64.5	64	0.00446

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	45	37	.549	---	---	---	24.55501
Colorado	43	39	.524	2.0	2.0	79	36.45378
Milwaukee	43	39	.524	2.0	2.0	79	5.20361
Florida	41	39	.513	3.0	5.0	79	2.99581
Chicago	43	41	.512	3.0	5.0	77	3.12304
Cincinnati	40	41	.494	4.5	12.5	77	1.71817
Houston	40	41	.494	4.5	12.5	77	1.13201
New York	39	42	.481	5.5	19.5	76	3.12304
Atlanta	39	43	.476	6.0	23.5	75	2.08225
Pttsburgh	37	46	.446	8.5	46.0	72	0.56024
San Diego	35	47	.427	10.0	61.0	71	0.14075
Arizona	34	49	.410	11.5	77.5	69	0.26129
Washington	24	56	.300	20.0	179.5	62	0.00053

Benjamin Grimm
Jul 07 2009 06:51 AM

Yikes... eighth place in the Wild Card race? Just a few weeks ago they were in first or second.

Things look pretty grim, but not so bad that a sustained hot streak wouldn't cure.

But is this team capable of a sustained hot streak? Sure doesn't look like it.

Edgy DC
Jul 07 2009 07:22 AM

The overlooked here continues to be the turnabout Colorado had had over the last few weeks.

I ain't telling you what to believe, but if you want to still root, take it one team at a time. Root for the Mets, and root like heck against Houston.

Once they pass Houston, the Astros become the Mets allies in helping them pick off the teams ahead.

I'm not going to tell you it's not a slog ahead.

TransMonk
Jul 08 2009 08:07 AM

39-43.

This is the first time the Mets have been 4 games under .500 since 9/17/05.

metirish
Jul 08 2009 08:09 AM

The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.

Edgy DC
Jul 13 2009 08:23 AM

The pattern of fortune's vunlerability to change dramatically each day in the NL East lends an air of bigitude to the Mets upcoming series with the Braves.

Is anybody in the press noticing the extended surge of the Rockies? Look how dramatically they lead without leading in the wildcard race.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	48	38	.558	---	---	---	60.36533
Florida	46	44	.511	4.0	4.0	71	15.70618
Atlanta	43	45	.489	6.0	8.0	70	12.38783
New York	42	45	.483	6.5	9.5	70	11.54009
Washington	26	61	.299	22.5	73.5	54	0.00058

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	49	39	.557	---	---	---	27.11857
Colorado	47	41	.534	2.0	2.0	73	45.51423
Milwaukee	45	43	.511	4.0	6.0	71	2.96857
Florida	46	44	.511	4.0	6.0	40	3.00459
Chicago	43	43	.500	5.0	10.0	71	3.18395
Houston	44	44	.500	5.0	10.0	70	0.71723
Atlanta	43	45	.489	6.0	16.0	69	1.13201
Cincinnati	42	45	.483	6.5	19.5	69	0.68224
New York	42	45	.483	6.5	19.5	69	2.23495
Pttsburgh	38	50	.432	11.0	60.0	64	0.12630
Arizona	38	51	.427	11.5	65.0	62	0.19441
San Diego	36	52	.409	13.0	81.5	62	0.01837
Washington	26	61	.299	22.5	195.5	53	0.00010

Nymr83
Jul 13 2009 08:50 AM

]Washington 26 61 .299 22.5 73.5 54 0.00058

so they'll win the division 6 times out of 1,000,000? that takes into account the chances that they trade for Albert Pujols, Tim Lincecum, Hanley Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Evan Longoria, and Zack Greinke all before the end of the day, right?

Edgy DC
Jul 13 2009 08:56 AM

Plague years, I believe.

Nymr83
Jul 13 2009 08:59 AM

I also did not take into account the chances that the Mets, Braves, Marlins, and Phillies would all get paid off to lose the rest of their games.

Edgy DC
Jul 27 2009 02:02 PM

Chicago --- recently compared to the Mets as far as being disappointing --- has re-asserted themselves and edged ahead of the Cards, thought St. Louis still is shown as more likely to win the division according to Baseball Prospectus. The Mets series win helped put a brake on a long streaking period by Houston climbing the standings, and it also allowed them to pass Cincinnati. So the Reds are now one of the teams you are allowed to root for. Milwaukee is sliding and their the next team we are looking for the Mets to pick off.

Washington is eliminated from both races to the fifth decimal place of a percentage point.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	56	40	.583	---	---	---	71.92603
Atlanta	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	18.94809
Florida	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	6.65038
New York	46	51	.474	10.5	18.5	56	2.47551
Washington	30	68	.306	27.0	84.5	39	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	54	44	.551	---	---	---	58.03895
San Francisco	52	46	.531	2.0	2.0	63	9.07787
St. Louis	53	48	.525	2.5	3.0	61	3.54684
Atlanta	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	8.31609
Florida	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	3.47697
Houston	50	48	.510	4.0	8.5	61	0.87862
Milwaukee	49	49	.500	5.0	14.5	60	0.89282
New York	46	51	.474	7.5	32.0	58	0.37380
Cincinnati	44	53	.454	9.5	48.0	56	0.07017
Pttsburgh	43	55	.439	11.0	61.5	54	0.02579
Arizona	43	56	.434	11.5	66.5	53	0.09422
San Diego	38	61	.384	16.5	121.5	48	0.00010
Washington	30	68	.306	24.0	211.5	41	0.00000

Edgy DC
Jul 31 2009 07:45 AM

Not a lot of movement during the series, except, you know, the Mets knocked Colorado off the top perch in the Wild Card race. No matter, says Baseball Prospectus, who is still doubling down on the Rockies.

The Mets are only a game closer to the top, but cut their net gap from 32 to 26, so that's good. Similarly, they pulled three games closer in the Net column in the division race, such as it is.

In other words, this run has been nice, but it has to be sustained to be meaningful.

Catching Milwaukee and/or Houston over the next few days would be very meaningful.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	58	42	.580	---	---	---	73.50793
Florida	53	49	.520	6.0	6.0	56	8.16545
Atlanta	52	50	.510	7.0	8.0	55	15.18698
New York	49	52	.485	9.5	15.5	53	3.13963
Washington	32	70	.314	27.0	85.5	35	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	56	46	.549	---	---	---	18.97177
Colorado	55	47	.539	1.0	1.0	60	45.52084
St. Louis	56	49	.533	1.5	2.0	58	6.05652
Florida	53	49	.520	3.0	6.5	58	4.07728
Atlanta	52	50	.510	4.0	10.5	57	6.77887
Houston	51	51	.500	5.0	15.5	56	0.65272
Milwaukee	51	51	.500	5.0	15.5	56	0.78867
New York	49	52	.485	6.5	26.0	55	0.62566
Cincinnati	45	56	.446	10.5	58.0	51	0.01369
Arizona	44	58	.431	12.0	71.5	49	0.04786
Pttsburgh	43	58	.426	12.5	76.5	49	0.00565
San Diego	41	62	.398	15.5	109.5	45	0.00005
Washington	32	70	.314	24.0	211.5	37	0.00000

Edgy DC
Aug 04 2009 12:41 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	56	40	.583	---	---	---	74.89575
Atlanta	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	13.43997
Florida	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	10.06658
New York	46	51	.474	10.5	18.5	56	1.59770
Washington	30	68	.306	27.0	84.5	39	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	54	44	.551	---	---	---	58.95294
San Francisco	52	46	.531	2.0	2.0	63	16.21132
St. Louis	53	48	.525	2.5	3.0	61	3.44353
Atlanta	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	2.64151
Florida	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	3.85554
Houston	50	48	.510	4.0	8.5	61	0.39682
Milwaukee	49	49	.500	5.0	14.5	60	0.44886
New York	46	51	.474	7.5	32.0	58	0.12738
Cincinnati	44	53	.454	9.5	48.0	56	0.00121
Pttsburgh	43	55	.439	11.0	61.5	54	0.00172
Arizona	43	56	.434	11.5	66.5	53	0.06649
San Diego	38	61	.384	16.5	121.5	48	0.00031
Washington	30	68	.306	24.0	211.5	41	0.00000

Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%

Ashie62
Aug 04 2009 12:50 PM

="metirish":37imwhfz]The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.[/quote:37imwhfz]

We have a winner! Give the man a set of steaknives

TransMonk
Aug 04 2009 12:51 PM

="Edgy DC":1wacunne]
Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%[/quote:1wacunne]

Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007:
99.80%

Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.

Ashie62
Aug 04 2009 01:00 PM

="TransMonk":1oi9gbzs]

="Edgy DC":1oi9gbzs]
Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%[/quote:1oi9gbzs]

Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007:
99.80%

Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.[/quote:1oi9gbzs]

Wow** Strangely that just made my day. After all they are the Amazin Mets

Edgy DC
Aug 06 2009 08:06 AM

Well, that lousy loss the night before last burns the Mets badly as their net post-season odds dip toward the 1% mark. Milwaukee moves up a bit, so the Mets have to eye Houston first, but you know, the Fish are slipping also.

San Fran re-takes the top wildcard slot, but Baseball Prospectus still is totally not impressed. They love the Rocks.

San Diego joins the Nats among teams not shouldered with the burden of a visible post-season possiblity.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	60	45	.571	---	---	---	75.75257
Florida	55	52	.514	6.0	6.0	51	9.14475
Atlanta	55	53	.509	6.5	7.0	50	14.03328
New York	51	56	.477	10.0	17.5	47	1.06940
Washington	36	72	.333	25.5	79.5	31	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	60	48	.556	---	---	---	22.82055
Colorado	59	48	.551	0.5	0.5	55	54.46296
St. Louis	59	51	.536	2.0	3.5	54	2.71764
Florida	55	52	.514	4.5	11.0	52	2.38452
Atlanta	55	53	.509	5.0	13.0	51	3.43947
Milwaukee	54	54	.500	6.0	18.0	50	0.41470
Houston	53	55	.491	7.0	24.0	48	0.11615
New York	51	56	.477	8.5	34.5	47	0.27858
Arizona	49	59	.454	11.0	54.5	44	0.11468
Cincinnati	46	61	.430	13.5	77.0	42	0.00048
Pttsburgh	45	62	.421	14.5	87.0	41	0.00063
San Diego	44	65	.404	16.5	109.0	38	0.00000
Washington	36	72	.333	24.0	199.0	31	0.00000

Edgy DC
Aug 10 2009 07:57 PM

The Mets are Santa Claus right now, giving hope to all the poor children, first Arizona, then San Diego, who actually has come back from having no chance of winning within five decimal places of a percentage point. Mercy.

Not so resuscitated is Washington, who despite winning a fuky eight straight, still aren't showing any numbers but goose eggs, but they've closed their wild card gap from 199 net games to 173. Another seven months at this pace and who knows?

Normally I'd cheer the Nats onward, reasoning that any success by a team behind the Mets in the standings helps the Mets pick off opponents, but this week stank so solidly that I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings.

Show me something, SHaMs.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	61	48	.560	---	---	---	58.10719
Florida	58	53	.523	4.0	4.0	49	15.91526
Atlanta	58	54	.518	4.5	5.0	48	25.56209
New York	52	59	.468	10.0	21.5	43	0.41546
Washington	40	72	.357	22.5	71.5	30	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	61	50	.550	---	---	---	51.36310
San Francisco	61	50	.550	---	---	---	18.00222
Chicago	58	51	.532	2.0	4.0	51	4.56220
Florida	58	53	.523	3.0	7.0	49	3.87031
Atlanta	58	54	.518	3.5	9.0	48	4.75462
Houston	55	56	.495	6.0	21.5	46	0.16014
Milwaukee	55	56	.495	6.0	21.5	46	0.41311
New York	52	59	.468	9.0	42.5	43	0.08468
Arizona	50	62	.446	11.5	62.5	40	0.03717
Cincinnati	48	62	.436	12.5	71.5	40	0.00078
San Diego	47	66	.416	15.0	96.5	36	0.00003
Pttsburgh	45	66	.405	16.0	107.5	36	0.00000
Washington	40	72	.357	21.5	173.5	30	0.00000

Elster88
Aug 10 2009 08:55 PM

]I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings.

That just depressed the hell out of me.

duan
Aug 11 2009 05:34 AM

i don't know

every time they look like they *just might* put something together that'd mean they'd claw their way TOWARDS being at least able to duke it out in September they lose two straight and fall back off. I'm still cool with saying if they go 13-6 or something in the remaining August games they'll be well in it, but there's only so many times they can fail to actually have one of those runs and still be able to put enough of them together.
We've really missed a healthy John Maine.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Aug 11 2009 12:06 PM

Re: i don't know

="duan":exl5k9ys]We've really missed a healthy John Maine.[/quote:exl5k9ys]

Since mid-2007.

Edgy DC
Aug 11 2009 12:53 PM

We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.

duan
Aug 11 2009 05:08 PM

="Edgy DC":20movskg]We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.[/quote:20movskg]
totally, it's just that Pelfrey & Hernandez seem to alternate good & bad outings and whoever's in the 4th & 5th slots is usually pretty junky so on the days where we don't score 7 runs we lose more then half the time. I sorta feel if we just had one more stable starter we'd be close to .500 now and if the batters came back could make a go of it.

Benjamin Grimm · May 28, 2009

And remember, it was the White Sox who almost closed a deal for Peavy. They seem to be big players in the starting pitcher market.

If I'm shopping a starting pitcher, they'd be among the first teams I'd call.

Fman99 · May 28, 2009

="Triple Dee"]

="Edgy DC"]
...., and the Blue Jays are playing like chumps and better stop.

Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Mets.

Too much teeth?

May 28, 2009

(My apologies for hijacking the Standings thread, maybe these posts should be moved to another thread.)

="soupcan":24grmrc0]
but even if the Phils are the most likely suitor that doesn't necessarily mean Halliday is theirs for the taking. If I'm the BJs I'm looking for a lot for Roy. Do the Phillies have what it would take? I would think it would take young, proven ML talent at least.
[/quote:24grmrc0]

You're right, presently they probably don't have enough for Halliday. Their top pitching prospect, Carlos Carrasco is having a pretty bad time in AAA. They have Kyle Drabek (presumably Doug's son?) who is highly regarded but he's playing A ball . Other than they have some decent OF which the BJs don't need.

="BG":24grmrc0]
And remember, it was the White Sox who almost closed a deal for Peavy. They seem to be big players in the starting pitcher market.
[/quote:24grmrc0]
The ChiSox probably need starting pitching help now. I suspect by the time the BJ's would want to deal Halliday, they'll be as far out as they are.

="Fman99":24grmrc0]
Too much teeth?
[/quote:24grmrc0]
Gutter.

smg58
May 28 2009 01:35 PM

="Triple Dee":20e91cie]Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Phils. If they rapidly fall out of contention, Halliday may be put on the trading bloc(k). There's no way he'll be traded to the Red Sox or Yanquis, which is likely to make the Mets the number one suitors.[/quote:20e91cie]

There, that's better.

In all seriousness, if Halladay and/or Cliff Lee go on the block we can't cry poverty.

Edgy DC
Jun 02 2009 02:13 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	29	20	.592	---	---	---
New York	28	22	.560	1.5	1.5	112
Atlanta	25	25	.500	4.5	7.5	109
Florida	24	28	.462	6.5	13.5	106
Washington	13	36	.265	16	51.5	98

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 08 2009 04:49 AM

I know we all pretend to be disinterested in the Wild Card (until, of course, it's the last weekend of the season and the division has been clinched and we desperately want the Wild Card) but the Mets are currently in a virtual tie for the WC lead with St. Louis. (They're actually .001 ahead.)

Just thought I'd mention it.

Frayed Knot
Jun 08 2009 07:43 AM

It helps that whilst Met fans wuz crying over the sweep in Pittsburgh and deeming barely acceptable their 2 of 3 over the Nats (and ranting about how good teams "don't let that happen", etc) the Cards were getting swept by the Rockies.

Frayed Knot
Jun 08 2009 03:00 PM

BTW, that Cards-Rox series which I assumed was a 3-game sweep, wasn't.
It was actually a 4-game series with the getaway game today ... and now it's a 4-game sweep by the Rockies. And in StL too.

Edgy DC
Jun 08 2009 07:32 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	33	22	.600	---	---	---
New York	30	25	.545	3.0	3.0	105
Atlanta	27	28	.491	6.0	9.0	102
Florida	27	31	.466	7.5	13.5	99
Washington	15	40	.273	18.0	55.5	90

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
New York	30	25	.545	---	---	---
St. Louis	31	27	.534	0.5	0.5	105
San Francisco	29	26	.527	1.0	1.5	106
Chicago	28	26	.519	1.5	3.0	106
Cincinnati	29	27	.518	1.5	3.0	105
Atlanta	27	28	.491	3.0	10.5	104
Florida	27	31	.466	4.5	19.0	101
Pttsburgh	26	30	.464	4.5	19.0	102
San Diego	26	30	.464	4.5	19.0	102
Houston	25	30	.455	5.0	24.0	102
Arizona	25	32	.439	6.0	34.0	101
Colorado	25	32	.439	6.0	34.0	101
Washington	15	40	.273	15.0	142.0	92

Edgy DC
Jun 15 2009 08:38 PM

Florida is making another small move in the east, while the Mets have relinquished the wild card for now.

Colrado has absolutely exploded, knocking a ton of net games back off as they move from next to last to the middle of the pack.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	36	25	.590	---	---	---
New York	32	29	.525	4.0	4.0	98
Florida	32	33	.492	6.0	8.0	94
Atlanta	30	32	.482	6.5	9.5	95
Washington	16	45	.262	20.0	63.5	82

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
San Francisco	34	28	.548	---	---	---
St. Louis	34	30	.531	1.0	1.0	99
New York	32	29	.525	1.5	2.0	100
Cincinnati	31	31	.500	3.0	6.5	98
Chicago	30	30	.500	3.0	6.5	99
Florida	32	33	.492	3.5	9.0	96
Colorado	31	32	.492	3.5	9.0	101
Atlanta	30	32	.482	4.0	11.5	97
Pttsburgh	30	33	.476	4.5	16.5	96
Houston	29	32	.475	4.5	16.5	97
San Diego	28	34	.452	6.0	31.5	95
Arizona	27	37	.422	8.0	53.5	92
Washington	16	45	.262	17.5	167.5	84

Willets Point
Jun 15 2009 10:02 PM

All thing considered, 4 GB in mid-June ain't too shabby.

Gwreck
Jun 15 2009 11:01 PM

The Phillies aren't as good as they were last year (particularly Lidge and Rollins). I can certainly see the Mets passing them, maybe with a Philly injury and the Mets getting some players back.

Edgy DC
Jun 16 2009 05:30 AM

The Mets have turn it on, though. One way, and not a crazy one, of looking at "The Phillies aren't as good as they were last year (particularly Lidge and Rollins)," is to realize the Phils sure have the potential to get better.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 16 2009 12:36 PM

="metirish (in another thread)":20pgmzma]With 101 games to go what would the Mets need to do realistically the rest of the way? After they fired Willie they went 55-38 in the remaining 93 games .

Need to win 60 games?[/quote:20pgmzma]

I haven't done this yet this year, but here's what Baseball Prospectus is currently saying:


Average wins by position in NL East:  92.7 86.4 80.7 74.6 61.7 92.8
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          36   25   .514   88.8   73.2   46.66633   14.85141   61.51774         .04575  -1.48791
Mets              32   29   .544   87.7   74.3   41.41762   13.35543   54.77305         .17262  -0.79291
Marlins           32   33   .485   79.3   82.7    6.56945    4.60971   11.17916         .04267   6.61307
Braves            30   32   .485   78.1   83.9    5.33545    3.61399    8.94944         .10715  -7.83416
Nationals         16   45   .456   62.1   99.9     .01115     .00837     .01952       -0.00110  -0.04799

The Dodgers are at 97.4% for the playoffs, 94.3 for the division. The most likely wild card team is Colorado, currently in 3rd place, with 17.4%. (Phillies are the second most likely wild card, followed by the Mets and the Giants.)

In the American League, the Red Sox score highest, at 77.8% for the playoffs. Yankees are at 47.0%. They both are about equal for the wild card (at 26 to 27 per cent), but the Red Sox are way ahead for the division, leading 50.4% to 20.6%.

I can see why that Orioles fan is boasting, by the way. His team's chances: .05655 division .22353 wild card .28008 overall.

HahnSolo
Jun 16 2009 12:45 PM

Oh, god no, not the BP projections! I vowed not to read these after absorbing them for 2 straight Septembers. have mercy on me, Grimm.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 16 2009 12:53 PM

Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet.

I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.

Ashie62
Jun 17 2009 04:52 AM

BP Over 50/50 shot...Was kinda hoping for 80 percent wire to wire..Probably asking to much on my end

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 17 2009 05:36 AM

Picked up a game on the whole division last nite.

Centerfield
Jun 17 2009 07:17 AM

="Benjamin Grimm":wvotfwll]Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet.

I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.[/quote:wvotfwll]

You think they're gonna run away with the division? Wow, that's some confidence.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 25 2009 01:56 PM

One game out of first place. If Tampa Bay does us a favor tonight, it'll be only a half.

Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 25 2009 01:58 PM

We got a cupcake at home coming up, I don't see how we could get out of this weekend not in first.

Edgy DC
Jun 25 2009 10:51 PM

Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Jul 31 2009 07:51 AM

The whole field has truncated since the last update, with expansion brethren Colorado and Florida heating up the most. Even Washington has gained some ground.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	37	33	.529	---	---	---
New York	37	34	.521	0.5	0.5	92
Florida	38	36	.514	1.0	1.5	90
Atlanta	34	38	.472	4.0	10.5	88
Washington	21	49	.300	16.0	58.5	77

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
San Francisco	39	32	.549	---	---	---
Milwaukee	38	34	.528	1.5	1.4	99
New York	37	34	.521	2.0	2.5	90
Colorado	37	35	.514	2.5	4.0	89
Florida	38	36	.514	2.5	4.0	88
Cincinnati	35	36	.493	4.0	11.5	88
Chicago	34	35	.493	4.0	11.5	89
Atlanta	34	38	.472	5.5	22.0	86
Houston	33	37	.471	5.5	22.0	87
Pttsburgh	33	39	.458	6.5	31.0	85
San Diego	31	40	.437	8.0	50.5	84
Arizona	30	42	.417	9.5	62.5	82
Washington	21	49	.300	17.5	158.5	75

Willets Point
Jun 25 2009 11:11 PM

="Benjamin Grimm":3i3p78g1]Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.[/quote:3i3p78g1]

That can be interpreted in two different ways:

1. The Mets will depart the city of Philadelphia having gained first place for themselves.
2. The Mets will lose and thus the team from Philadelphia will remain in sole possession of first place.

Gwreck
Jun 25 2009 11:31 PM

Which do you think it is?

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 26 2009 05:45 AM

Let me rephrase then...

Perhaps the Mets, upon their departure from Philadelphia next week, will find themselves with the best record in the National League East.

Edgy DC
Jun 26 2009 08:45 PM

Hey, we're in first place.

Edgy DC
Jul 07 2009 06:11 AM

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 07 2009 07:18 AM

Wow, I haven't posted since the Mets were in first.

The good news is that, in the day and a half since the Mets last played (and lost), they have passed two teams (one intradivision) in the standings. The bad news is that the sterategy of moving ahead by not playing isn't very sustainable.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	43	37	.538	---	---	---	48.17926
Florida	43	41	.512	2.0	2.0	79	18.79686
New York	39	42	.481	4.5	7.0	78	21.36100
Atlanta	39	43	.476	5.0	8.5	77	11.65843
Washington	24	55	.304	19.0	64.5	64	0.00446

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	45	37	.549	---	---	---	24.55501
Colorado	43	39	.524	2.0	2.0	79	36.45378
Milwaukee	43	39	.524	2.0	2.0	79	5.20361
Florida	41	39	.513	3.0	5.0	79	2.99581
Chicago	43	41	.512	3.0	5.0	77	3.12304
Cincinnati	40	41	.494	4.5	12.5	77	1.71817
Houston	40	41	.494	4.5	12.5	77	1.13201
New York	39	42	.481	5.5	19.5	76	3.12304
Atlanta	39	43	.476	6.0	23.5	75	2.08225
Pttsburgh	37	46	.446	8.5	46.0	72	0.56024
San Diego	35	47	.427	10.0	61.0	71	0.14075
Arizona	34	49	.410	11.5	77.5	69	0.26129
Washington	24	56	.300	20.0	179.5	62	0.00053

Benjamin Grimm
Jul 07 2009 06:51 AM

Yikes... eighth place in the Wild Card race? Just a few weeks ago they were in first or second.

Things look pretty grim, but not so bad that a sustained hot streak wouldn't cure.

But is this team capable of a sustained hot streak? Sure doesn't look like it.

Edgy DC
Jul 07 2009 07:22 AM

The overlooked here continues to be the turnabout Colorado had had over the last few weeks.

I ain't telling you what to believe, but if you want to still root, take it one team at a time. Root for the Mets, and root like heck against Houston.

Once they pass Houston, the Astros become the Mets allies in helping them pick off the teams ahead.

I'm not going to tell you it's not a slog ahead.

TransMonk
Jul 08 2009 08:07 AM

39-43.

This is the first time the Mets have been 4 games under .500 since 9/17/05.

metirish
Jul 08 2009 08:09 AM

The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.

Edgy DC
Jul 13 2009 08:23 AM

The pattern of fortune's vunlerability to change dramatically each day in the NL East lends an air of bigitude to the Mets upcoming series with the Braves.

Is anybody in the press noticing the extended surge of the Rockies? Look how dramatically they lead without leading in the wildcard race.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	48	38	.558	---	---	---	60.36533
Florida	46	44	.511	4.0	4.0	71	15.70618
Atlanta	43	45	.489	6.0	8.0	70	12.38783
New York	42	45	.483	6.5	9.5	70	11.54009
Washington	26	61	.299	22.5	73.5	54	0.00058

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	49	39	.557	---	---	---	27.11857
Colorado	47	41	.534	2.0	2.0	73	45.51423
Milwaukee	45	43	.511	4.0	6.0	71	2.96857
Florida	46	44	.511	4.0	6.0	40	3.00459
Chicago	43	43	.500	5.0	10.0	71	3.18395
Houston	44	44	.500	5.0	10.0	70	0.71723
Atlanta	43	45	.489	6.0	16.0	69	1.13201
Cincinnati	42	45	.483	6.5	19.5	69	0.68224
New York	42	45	.483	6.5	19.5	69	2.23495
Pttsburgh	38	50	.432	11.0	60.0	64	0.12630
Arizona	38	51	.427	11.5	65.0	62	0.19441
San Diego	36	52	.409	13.0	81.5	62	0.01837
Washington	26	61	.299	22.5	195.5	53	0.00010

Nymr83
Jul 13 2009 08:50 AM

]Washington 26 61 .299 22.5 73.5 54 0.00058

so they'll win the division 6 times out of 1,000,000? that takes into account the chances that they trade for Albert Pujols, Tim Lincecum, Hanley Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Evan Longoria, and Zack Greinke all before the end of the day, right?

Edgy DC
Jul 13 2009 08:56 AM

Plague years, I believe.

Nymr83
Jul 13 2009 08:59 AM

I also did not take into account the chances that the Mets, Braves, Marlins, and Phillies would all get paid off to lose the rest of their games.

Edgy DC
Jul 27 2009 02:02 PM

Chicago --- recently compared to the Mets as far as being disappointing --- has re-asserted themselves and edged ahead of the Cards, thought St. Louis still is shown as more likely to win the division according to Baseball Prospectus. The Mets series win helped put a brake on a long streaking period by Houston climbing the standings, and it also allowed them to pass Cincinnati. So the Reds are now one of the teams you are allowed to root for. Milwaukee is sliding and their the next team we are looking for the Mets to pick off.

Washington is eliminated from both races to the fifth decimal place of a percentage point.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	56	40	.583	---	---	---	71.92603
Atlanta	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	18.94809
Florida	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	6.65038
New York	46	51	.474	10.5	18.5	56	2.47551
Washington	30	68	.306	27.0	84.5	39	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	54	44	.551	---	---	---	58.03895
San Francisco	52	46	.531	2.0	2.0	63	9.07787
St. Louis	53	48	.525	2.5	3.0	61	3.54684
Atlanta	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	8.31609
Florida	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	3.47697
Houston	50	48	.510	4.0	8.5	61	0.87862
Milwaukee	49	49	.500	5.0	14.5	60	0.89282
New York	46	51	.474	7.5	32.0	58	0.37380
Cincinnati	44	53	.454	9.5	48.0	56	0.07017
Pttsburgh	43	55	.439	11.0	61.5	54	0.02579
Arizona	43	56	.434	11.5	66.5	53	0.09422
San Diego	38	61	.384	16.5	121.5	48	0.00010
Washington	30	68	.306	24.0	211.5	41	0.00000

Edgy DC
Jul 31 2009 07:45 AM

Not a lot of movement during the series, except, you know, the Mets knocked Colorado off the top perch in the Wild Card race. No matter, says Baseball Prospectus, who is still doubling down on the Rockies.

The Mets are only a game closer to the top, but cut their net gap from 32 to 26, so that's good. Similarly, they pulled three games closer in the Net column in the division race, such as it is.

In other words, this run has been nice, but it has to be sustained to be meaningful.

Catching Milwaukee and/or Houston over the next few days would be very meaningful.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	58	42	.580	---	---	---	73.50793
Florida	53	49	.520	6.0	6.0	56	8.16545
Atlanta	52	50	.510	7.0	8.0	55	15.18698
New York	49	52	.485	9.5	15.5	53	3.13963
Washington	32	70	.314	27.0	85.5	35	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	56	46	.549	---	---	---	18.97177
Colorado	55	47	.539	1.0	1.0	60	45.52084
St. Louis	56	49	.533	1.5	2.0	58	6.05652
Florida	53	49	.520	3.0	6.5	58	4.07728
Atlanta	52	50	.510	4.0	10.5	57	6.77887
Houston	51	51	.500	5.0	15.5	56	0.65272
Milwaukee	51	51	.500	5.0	15.5	56	0.78867
New York	49	52	.485	6.5	26.0	55	0.62566
Cincinnati	45	56	.446	10.5	58.0	51	0.01369
Arizona	44	58	.431	12.0	71.5	49	0.04786
Pttsburgh	43	58	.426	12.5	76.5	49	0.00565
San Diego	41	62	.398	15.5	109.5	45	0.00005
Washington	32	70	.314	24.0	211.5	37	0.00000

Edgy DC
Aug 04 2009 12:41 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	56	40	.583	---	---	---	74.89575
Atlanta	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	13.43997
Florida	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	10.06658
New York	46	51	.474	10.5	18.5	56	1.59770
Washington	30	68	.306	27.0	84.5	39	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	54	44	.551	---	---	---	58.95294
San Francisco	52	46	.531	2.0	2.0	63	16.21132
St. Louis	53	48	.525	2.5	3.0	61	3.44353
Atlanta	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	2.64151
Florida	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	3.85554
Houston	50	48	.510	4.0	8.5	61	0.39682
Milwaukee	49	49	.500	5.0	14.5	60	0.44886
New York	46	51	.474	7.5	32.0	58	0.12738
Cincinnati	44	53	.454	9.5	48.0	56	0.00121
Pttsburgh	43	55	.439	11.0	61.5	54	0.00172
Arizona	43	56	.434	11.5	66.5	53	0.06649
San Diego	38	61	.384	16.5	121.5	48	0.00031
Washington	30	68	.306	24.0	211.5	41	0.00000

Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%

Ashie62
Aug 04 2009 12:50 PM

="metirish":37imwhfz]The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.[/quote:37imwhfz]

We have a winner! Give the man a set of steaknives

TransMonk
Aug 04 2009 12:51 PM

="Edgy DC":1wacunne]
Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%[/quote:1wacunne]

Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007:
99.80%

Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.

Ashie62
Aug 04 2009 01:00 PM

="TransMonk":1oi9gbzs]

="Edgy DC":1oi9gbzs]
Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%[/quote:1oi9gbzs]

Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007:
99.80%

Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.[/quote:1oi9gbzs]

Wow** Strangely that just made my day. After all they are the Amazin Mets

Edgy DC
Aug 06 2009 08:06 AM

Well, that lousy loss the night before last burns the Mets badly as their net post-season odds dip toward the 1% mark. Milwaukee moves up a bit, so the Mets have to eye Houston first, but you know, the Fish are slipping also.

San Fran re-takes the top wildcard slot, but Baseball Prospectus still is totally not impressed. They love the Rocks.

San Diego joins the Nats among teams not shouldered with the burden of a visible post-season possiblity.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	60	45	.571	---	---	---	75.75257
Florida	55	52	.514	6.0	6.0	51	9.14475
Atlanta	55	53	.509	6.5	7.0	50	14.03328
New York	51	56	.477	10.0	17.5	47	1.06940
Washington	36	72	.333	25.5	79.5	31	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	60	48	.556	---	---	---	22.82055
Colorado	59	48	.551	0.5	0.5	55	54.46296
St. Louis	59	51	.536	2.0	3.5	54	2.71764
Florida	55	52	.514	4.5	11.0	52	2.38452
Atlanta	55	53	.509	5.0	13.0	51	3.43947
Milwaukee	54	54	.500	6.0	18.0	50	0.41470
Houston	53	55	.491	7.0	24.0	48	0.11615
New York	51	56	.477	8.5	34.5	47	0.27858
Arizona	49	59	.454	11.0	54.5	44	0.11468
Cincinnati	46	61	.430	13.5	77.0	42	0.00048
Pttsburgh	45	62	.421	14.5	87.0	41	0.00063
San Diego	44	65	.404	16.5	109.0	38	0.00000
Washington	36	72	.333	24.0	199.0	31	0.00000

Edgy DC
Aug 10 2009 07:57 PM

The Mets are Santa Claus right now, giving hope to all the poor children, first Arizona, then San Diego, who actually has come back from having no chance of winning within five decimal places of a percentage point. Mercy.

Not so resuscitated is Washington, who despite winning a fuky eight straight, still aren't showing any numbers but goose eggs, but they've closed their wild card gap from 199 net games to 173. Another seven months at this pace and who knows?

Normally I'd cheer the Nats onward, reasoning that any success by a team behind the Mets in the standings helps the Mets pick off opponents, but this week stank so solidly that I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings.

Show me something, SHaMs.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	61	48	.560	---	---	---	58.10719
Florida	58	53	.523	4.0	4.0	49	15.91526
Atlanta	58	54	.518	4.5	5.0	48	25.56209
New York	52	59	.468	10.0	21.5	43	0.41546
Washington	40	72	.357	22.5	71.5	30	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	61	50	.550	---	---	---	51.36310
San Francisco	61	50	.550	---	---	---	18.00222
Chicago	58	51	.532	2.0	4.0	51	4.56220
Florida	58	53	.523	3.0	7.0	49	3.87031
Atlanta	58	54	.518	3.5	9.0	48	4.75462
Houston	55	56	.495	6.0	21.5	46	0.16014
Milwaukee	55	56	.495	6.0	21.5	46	0.41311
New York	52	59	.468	9.0	42.5	43	0.08468
Arizona	50	62	.446	11.5	62.5	40	0.03717
Cincinnati	48	62	.436	12.5	71.5	40	0.00078
San Diego	47	66	.416	15.0	96.5	36	0.00003
Pttsburgh	45	66	.405	16.0	107.5	36	0.00000
Washington	40	72	.357	21.5	173.5	30	0.00000

Elster88
Aug 10 2009 08:55 PM

]I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings.

That just depressed the hell out of me.

duan
Aug 11 2009 05:34 AM

i don't know

every time they look like they *just might* put something together that'd mean they'd claw their way TOWARDS being at least able to duke it out in September they lose two straight and fall back off. I'm still cool with saying if they go 13-6 or something in the remaining August games they'll be well in it, but there's only so many times they can fail to actually have one of those runs and still be able to put enough of them together.
We've really missed a healthy John Maine.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Aug 11 2009 12:06 PM

Re: i don't know

="duan":exl5k9ys]We've really missed a healthy John Maine.[/quote:exl5k9ys]

Since mid-2007.

Edgy DC
Aug 11 2009 12:53 PM

We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.

duan
Aug 11 2009 05:08 PM

="Edgy DC":20movskg]We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.[/quote:20movskg]
totally, it's just that Pelfrey & Hernandez seem to alternate good & bad outings and whoever's in the 4th & 5th slots is usually pretty junky so on the days where we don't score 7 runs we lose more then half the time. I sorta feel if we just had one more stable starter we'd be close to .500 now and if the batters came back could make a go of it.

smg58 · May 28, 2009

="Triple Dee":20e91cie]Unhealthy BJs could be bad news for the Phils. If they rapidly fall out of contention, Halliday may be put on the trading bloc(k). There's no way he'll be traded to the Red Sox or Yanquis, which is likely to make the Mets the number one suitors.[/quote:20e91cie]

There, that's better.

In all seriousness, if Halladay and/or Cliff Lee go on the block we can't cry poverty.

Edgy DC
Jun 02 2009 02:13 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	29	20	.592	---	---	---
New York	28	22	.560	1.5	1.5	112
Atlanta	25	25	.500	4.5	7.5	109
Florida	24	28	.462	6.5	13.5	106
Washington	13	36	.265	16	51.5	98

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 08 2009 04:49 AM

I know we all pretend to be disinterested in the Wild Card (until, of course, it's the last weekend of the season and the division has been clinched and we desperately want the Wild Card) but the Mets are currently in a virtual tie for the WC lead with St. Louis. (They're actually .001 ahead.)

Just thought I'd mention it.

Frayed Knot
Jun 08 2009 07:43 AM

It helps that whilst Met fans wuz crying over the sweep in Pittsburgh and deeming barely acceptable their 2 of 3 over the Nats (and ranting about how good teams "don't let that happen", etc) the Cards were getting swept by the Rockies.

Frayed Knot
Jun 08 2009 03:00 PM

BTW, that Cards-Rox series which I assumed was a 3-game sweep, wasn't.
It was actually a 4-game series with the getaway game today ... and now it's a 4-game sweep by the Rockies. And in StL too.

Edgy DC
Jun 08 2009 07:32 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	33	22	.600	---	---	---
New York	30	25	.545	3.0	3.0	105
Atlanta	27	28	.491	6.0	9.0	102
Florida	27	31	.466	7.5	13.5	99
Washington	15	40	.273	18.0	55.5	90

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
New York	30	25	.545	---	---	---
St. Louis	31	27	.534	0.5	0.5	105
San Francisco	29	26	.527	1.0	1.5	106
Chicago	28	26	.519	1.5	3.0	106
Cincinnati	29	27	.518	1.5	3.0	105
Atlanta	27	28	.491	3.0	10.5	104
Florida	27	31	.466	4.5	19.0	101
Pttsburgh	26	30	.464	4.5	19.0	102
San Diego	26	30	.464	4.5	19.0	102
Houston	25	30	.455	5.0	24.0	102
Arizona	25	32	.439	6.0	34.0	101
Colorado	25	32	.439	6.0	34.0	101
Washington	15	40	.273	15.0	142.0	92

Edgy DC
Jun 15 2009 08:38 PM

Florida is making another small move in the east, while the Mets have relinquished the wild card for now.

Colrado has absolutely exploded, knocking a ton of net games back off as they move from next to last to the middle of the pack.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	36	25	.590	---	---	---
New York	32	29	.525	4.0	4.0	98
Florida	32	33	.492	6.0	8.0	94
Atlanta	30	32	.482	6.5	9.5	95
Washington	16	45	.262	20.0	63.5	82

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
San Francisco	34	28	.548	---	---	---
St. Louis	34	30	.531	1.0	1.0	99
New York	32	29	.525	1.5	2.0	100
Cincinnati	31	31	.500	3.0	6.5	98
Chicago	30	30	.500	3.0	6.5	99
Florida	32	33	.492	3.5	9.0	96
Colorado	31	32	.492	3.5	9.0	101
Atlanta	30	32	.482	4.0	11.5	97
Pttsburgh	30	33	.476	4.5	16.5	96
Houston	29	32	.475	4.5	16.5	97
San Diego	28	34	.452	6.0	31.5	95
Arizona	27	37	.422	8.0	53.5	92
Washington	16	45	.262	17.5	167.5	84

Willets Point
Jun 15 2009 10:02 PM

All thing considered, 4 GB in mid-June ain't too shabby.

Gwreck
Jun 15 2009 11:01 PM

The Phillies aren't as good as they were last year (particularly Lidge and Rollins). I can certainly see the Mets passing them, maybe with a Philly injury and the Mets getting some players back.

Edgy DC
Jun 16 2009 05:30 AM

The Mets have turn it on, though. One way, and not a crazy one, of looking at "The Phillies aren't as good as they were last year (particularly Lidge and Rollins)," is to realize the Phils sure have the potential to get better.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 16 2009 12:36 PM

="metirish (in another thread)":20pgmzma]With 101 games to go what would the Mets need to do realistically the rest of the way? After they fired Willie they went 55-38 in the remaining 93 games .

Need to win 60 games?[/quote:20pgmzma]

I haven't done this yet this year, but here's what Baseball Prospectus is currently saying:


Average wins by position in NL East:  92.7 86.4 80.7 74.6 61.7 92.8
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          36   25   .514   88.8   73.2   46.66633   14.85141   61.51774         .04575  -1.48791
Mets              32   29   .544   87.7   74.3   41.41762   13.35543   54.77305         .17262  -0.79291
Marlins           32   33   .485   79.3   82.7    6.56945    4.60971   11.17916         .04267   6.61307
Braves            30   32   .485   78.1   83.9    5.33545    3.61399    8.94944         .10715  -7.83416
Nationals         16   45   .456   62.1   99.9     .01115     .00837     .01952       -0.00110  -0.04799

The Dodgers are at 97.4% for the playoffs, 94.3 for the division. The most likely wild card team is Colorado, currently in 3rd place, with 17.4%. (Phillies are the second most likely wild card, followed by the Mets and the Giants.)

In the American League, the Red Sox score highest, at 77.8% for the playoffs. Yankees are at 47.0%. They both are about equal for the wild card (at 26 to 27 per cent), but the Red Sox are way ahead for the division, leading 50.4% to 20.6%.

I can see why that Orioles fan is boasting, by the way. His team's chances: .05655 division .22353 wild card .28008 overall.

HahnSolo
Jun 16 2009 12:45 PM

Oh, god no, not the BP projections! I vowed not to read these after absorbing them for 2 straight Septembers. have mercy on me, Grimm.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 16 2009 12:53 PM

Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet.

I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.

Ashie62
Jun 17 2009 04:52 AM

BP Over 50/50 shot...Was kinda hoping for 80 percent wire to wire..Probably asking to much on my end

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 17 2009 05:36 AM

Picked up a game on the whole division last nite.

Centerfield
Jun 17 2009 07:17 AM

="Benjamin Grimm":wvotfwll]Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet.

I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.[/quote:wvotfwll]

You think they're gonna run away with the division? Wow, that's some confidence.

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 25 2009 01:56 PM

One game out of first place. If Tampa Bay does us a favor tonight, it'll be only a half.

Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jun 25 2009 01:58 PM

We got a cupcake at home coming up, I don't see how we could get out of this weekend not in first.

Edgy DC
Jun 25 2009 10:51 PM

Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Jul 31 2009 07:51 AM

The whole field has truncated since the last update, with expansion brethren Colorado and Florida heating up the most. Even Washington has gained some ground.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	37	33	.529	---	---	---
New York	37	34	.521	0.5	0.5	92
Florida	38	36	.514	1.0	1.5	90
Atlanta	34	38	.472	4.0	10.5	88
Washington	21	49	.300	16.0	58.5	77

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
San Francisco	39	32	.549	---	---	---
Milwaukee	38	34	.528	1.5	1.4	99
New York	37	34	.521	2.0	2.5	90
Colorado	37	35	.514	2.5	4.0	89
Florida	38	36	.514	2.5	4.0	88
Cincinnati	35	36	.493	4.0	11.5	88
Chicago	34	35	.493	4.0	11.5	89
Atlanta	34	38	.472	5.5	22.0	86
Houston	33	37	.471	5.5	22.0	87
Pttsburgh	33	39	.458	6.5	31.0	85
San Diego	31	40	.437	8.0	50.5	84
Arizona	30	42	.417	9.5	62.5	82
Washington	21	49	.300	17.5	158.5	75

Willets Point
Jun 25 2009 11:11 PM

="Benjamin Grimm":3i3p78g1]Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.[/quote:3i3p78g1]

That can be interpreted in two different ways:

1. The Mets will depart the city of Philadelphia having gained first place for themselves.
2. The Mets will lose and thus the team from Philadelphia will remain in sole possession of first place.

Gwreck
Jun 25 2009 11:31 PM

Which do you think it is?

Benjamin Grimm
Jun 26 2009 05:45 AM

Let me rephrase then...

Perhaps the Mets, upon their departure from Philadelphia next week, will find themselves with the best record in the National League East.

Edgy DC
Jun 26 2009 08:45 PM

Hey, we're in first place.

Edgy DC
Jul 07 2009 06:11 AM

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 07 2009 07:18 AM

Wow, I haven't posted since the Mets were in first.

The good news is that, in the day and a half since the Mets last played (and lost), they have passed two teams (one intradivision) in the standings. The bad news is that the sterategy of moving ahead by not playing isn't very sustainable.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	43	37	.538	---	---	---	48.17926
Florida	43	41	.512	2.0	2.0	79	18.79686
New York	39	42	.481	4.5	7.0	78	21.36100
Atlanta	39	43	.476	5.0	8.5	77	11.65843
Washington	24	55	.304	19.0	64.5	64	0.00446

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	45	37	.549	---	---	---	24.55501
Colorado	43	39	.524	2.0	2.0	79	36.45378
Milwaukee	43	39	.524	2.0	2.0	79	5.20361
Florida	41	39	.513	3.0	5.0	79	2.99581
Chicago	43	41	.512	3.0	5.0	77	3.12304
Cincinnati	40	41	.494	4.5	12.5	77	1.71817
Houston	40	41	.494	4.5	12.5	77	1.13201
New York	39	42	.481	5.5	19.5	76	3.12304
Atlanta	39	43	.476	6.0	23.5	75	2.08225
Pttsburgh	37	46	.446	8.5	46.0	72	0.56024
San Diego	35	47	.427	10.0	61.0	71	0.14075
Arizona	34	49	.410	11.5	77.5	69	0.26129
Washington	24	56	.300	20.0	179.5	62	0.00053

Benjamin Grimm
Jul 07 2009 06:51 AM

Yikes... eighth place in the Wild Card race? Just a few weeks ago they were in first or second.

Things look pretty grim, but not so bad that a sustained hot streak wouldn't cure.

But is this team capable of a sustained hot streak? Sure doesn't look like it.

Edgy DC
Jul 07 2009 07:22 AM

The overlooked here continues to be the turnabout Colorado had had over the last few weeks.

I ain't telling you what to believe, but if you want to still root, take it one team at a time. Root for the Mets, and root like heck against Houston.

Once they pass Houston, the Astros become the Mets allies in helping them pick off the teams ahead.

I'm not going to tell you it's not a slog ahead.

TransMonk
Jul 08 2009 08:07 AM

39-43.

This is the first time the Mets have been 4 games under .500 since 9/17/05.

metirish
Jul 08 2009 08:09 AM

The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.

Edgy DC
Jul 13 2009 08:23 AM

The pattern of fortune's vunlerability to change dramatically each day in the NL East lends an air of bigitude to the Mets upcoming series with the Braves.

Is anybody in the press noticing the extended surge of the Rockies? Look how dramatically they lead without leading in the wildcard race.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	48	38	.558	---	---	---	60.36533
Florida	46	44	.511	4.0	4.0	71	15.70618
Atlanta	43	45	.489	6.0	8.0	70	12.38783
New York	42	45	.483	6.5	9.5	70	11.54009
Washington	26	61	.299	22.5	73.5	54	0.00058

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	49	39	.557	---	---	---	27.11857
Colorado	47	41	.534	2.0	2.0	73	45.51423
Milwaukee	45	43	.511	4.0	6.0	71	2.96857
Florida	46	44	.511	4.0	6.0	40	3.00459
Chicago	43	43	.500	5.0	10.0	71	3.18395
Houston	44	44	.500	5.0	10.0	70	0.71723
Atlanta	43	45	.489	6.0	16.0	69	1.13201
Cincinnati	42	45	.483	6.5	19.5	69	0.68224
New York	42	45	.483	6.5	19.5	69	2.23495
Pttsburgh	38	50	.432	11.0	60.0	64	0.12630
Arizona	38	51	.427	11.5	65.0	62	0.19441
San Diego	36	52	.409	13.0	81.5	62	0.01837
Washington	26	61	.299	22.5	195.5	53	0.00010

Nymr83
Jul 13 2009 08:50 AM

]Washington 26 61 .299 22.5 73.5 54 0.00058

so they'll win the division 6 times out of 1,000,000? that takes into account the chances that they trade for Albert Pujols, Tim Lincecum, Hanley Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Evan Longoria, and Zack Greinke all before the end of the day, right?

Edgy DC
Jul 13 2009 08:56 AM

Plague years, I believe.

Nymr83
Jul 13 2009 08:59 AM

I also did not take into account the chances that the Mets, Braves, Marlins, and Phillies would all get paid off to lose the rest of their games.

Edgy DC
Jul 27 2009 02:02 PM

Chicago --- recently compared to the Mets as far as being disappointing --- has re-asserted themselves and edged ahead of the Cards, thought St. Louis still is shown as more likely to win the division according to Baseball Prospectus. The Mets series win helped put a brake on a long streaking period by Houston climbing the standings, and it also allowed them to pass Cincinnati. So the Reds are now one of the teams you are allowed to root for. Milwaukee is sliding and their the next team we are looking for the Mets to pick off.

Washington is eliminated from both races to the fifth decimal place of a percentage point.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	56	40	.583	---	---	---	71.92603
Atlanta	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	18.94809
Florida	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	6.65038
New York	46	51	.474	10.5	18.5	56	2.47551
Washington	30	68	.306	27.0	84.5	39	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	54	44	.551	---	---	---	58.03895
San Francisco	52	46	.531	2.0	2.0	63	9.07787
St. Louis	53	48	.525	2.5	3.0	61	3.54684
Atlanta	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	8.31609
Florida	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	3.47697
Houston	50	48	.510	4.0	8.5	61	0.87862
Milwaukee	49	49	.500	5.0	14.5	60	0.89282
New York	46	51	.474	7.5	32.0	58	0.37380
Cincinnati	44	53	.454	9.5	48.0	56	0.07017
Pttsburgh	43	55	.439	11.0	61.5	54	0.02579
Arizona	43	56	.434	11.5	66.5	53	0.09422
San Diego	38	61	.384	16.5	121.5	48	0.00010
Washington	30	68	.306	24.0	211.5	41	0.00000

Edgy DC
Jul 31 2009 07:45 AM

Not a lot of movement during the series, except, you know, the Mets knocked Colorado off the top perch in the Wild Card race. No matter, says Baseball Prospectus, who is still doubling down on the Rockies.

The Mets are only a game closer to the top, but cut their net gap from 32 to 26, so that's good. Similarly, they pulled three games closer in the Net column in the division race, such as it is.

In other words, this run has been nice, but it has to be sustained to be meaningful.

Catching Milwaukee and/or Houston over the next few days would be very meaningful.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	58	42	.580	---	---	---	73.50793
Florida	53	49	.520	6.0	6.0	56	8.16545
Atlanta	52	50	.510	7.0	8.0	55	15.18698
New York	49	52	.485	9.5	15.5	53	3.13963
Washington	32	70	.314	27.0	85.5	35	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	56	46	.549	---	---	---	18.97177
Colorado	55	47	.539	1.0	1.0	60	45.52084
St. Louis	56	49	.533	1.5	2.0	58	6.05652
Florida	53	49	.520	3.0	6.5	58	4.07728
Atlanta	52	50	.510	4.0	10.5	57	6.77887
Houston	51	51	.500	5.0	15.5	56	0.65272
Milwaukee	51	51	.500	5.0	15.5	56	0.78867
New York	49	52	.485	6.5	26.0	55	0.62566
Cincinnati	45	56	.446	10.5	58.0	51	0.01369
Arizona	44	58	.431	12.0	71.5	49	0.04786
Pttsburgh	43	58	.426	12.5	76.5	49	0.00565
San Diego	41	62	.398	15.5	109.5	45	0.00005
Washington	32	70	.314	24.0	211.5	37	0.00000

Edgy DC
Aug 04 2009 12:41 PM

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	56	40	.583	---	---	---	74.89575
Atlanta	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	13.43997
Florida	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	10.06658
New York	46	51	.474	10.5	18.5	56	1.59770
Washington	30	68	.306	27.0	84.5	39	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	54	44	.551	---	---	---	58.95294
San Francisco	52	46	.531	2.0	2.0	63	16.21132
St. Louis	53	48	.525	2.5	3.0	61	3.44353
Atlanta	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	2.64151
Florida	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	3.85554
Houston	50	48	.510	4.0	8.5	61	0.39682
Milwaukee	49	49	.500	5.0	14.5	60	0.44886
New York	46	51	.474	7.5	32.0	58	0.12738
Cincinnati	44	53	.454	9.5	48.0	56	0.00121
Pttsburgh	43	55	.439	11.0	61.5	54	0.00172
Arizona	43	56	.434	11.5	66.5	53	0.06649
San Diego	38	61	.384	16.5	121.5	48	0.00031
Washington	30	68	.306	24.0	211.5	41	0.00000

Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%

Ashie62
Aug 04 2009 12:50 PM

="metirish":37imwhfz]The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.[/quote:37imwhfz]

We have a winner! Give the man a set of steaknives

TransMonk
Aug 04 2009 12:51 PM

="Edgy DC":1wacunne]
Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%[/quote:1wacunne]

Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007:
99.80%

Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.

Ashie62
Aug 04 2009 01:00 PM

="TransMonk":1oi9gbzs]

="Edgy DC":1oi9gbzs]
Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%[/quote:1oi9gbzs]

Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007:
99.80%

Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.[/quote:1oi9gbzs]

Wow** Strangely that just made my day. After all they are the Amazin Mets

Edgy DC
Aug 06 2009 08:06 AM

Well, that lousy loss the night before last burns the Mets badly as their net post-season odds dip toward the 1% mark. Milwaukee moves up a bit, so the Mets have to eye Houston first, but you know, the Fish are slipping also.

San Fran re-takes the top wildcard slot, but Baseball Prospectus still is totally not impressed. They love the Rocks.

San Diego joins the Nats among teams not shouldered with the burden of a visible post-season possiblity.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	60	45	.571	---	---	---	75.75257
Florida	55	52	.514	6.0	6.0	51	9.14475
Atlanta	55	53	.509	6.5	7.0	50	14.03328
New York	51	56	.477	10.0	17.5	47	1.06940
Washington	36	72	.333	25.5	79.5	31	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	60	48	.556	---	---	---	22.82055
Colorado	59	48	.551	0.5	0.5	55	54.46296
St. Louis	59	51	.536	2.0	3.5	54	2.71764
Florida	55	52	.514	4.5	11.0	52	2.38452
Atlanta	55	53	.509	5.0	13.0	51	3.43947
Milwaukee	54	54	.500	6.0	18.0	50	0.41470
Houston	53	55	.491	7.0	24.0	48	0.11615
New York	51	56	.477	8.5	34.5	47	0.27858
Arizona	49	59	.454	11.0	54.5	44	0.11468
Cincinnati	46	61	.430	13.5	77.0	42	0.00048
Pttsburgh	45	62	.421	14.5	87.0	41	0.00063
San Diego	44	65	.404	16.5	109.0	38	0.00000
Washington	36	72	.333	24.0	199.0	31	0.00000

Edgy DC
Aug 10 2009 07:57 PM

The Mets are Santa Claus right now, giving hope to all the poor children, first Arizona, then San Diego, who actually has come back from having no chance of winning within five decimal places of a percentage point. Mercy.

Not so resuscitated is Washington, who despite winning a fuky eight straight, still aren't showing any numbers but goose eggs, but they've closed their wild card gap from 199 net games to 173. Another seven months at this pace and who knows?

Normally I'd cheer the Nats onward, reasoning that any success by a team behind the Mets in the standings helps the Mets pick off opponents, but this week stank so solidly that I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings.

Show me something, SHaMs.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	61	48	.560	---	---	---	58.10719
Florida	58	53	.523	4.0	4.0	49	15.91526
Atlanta	58	54	.518	4.5	5.0	48	25.56209
New York	52	59	.468	10.0	21.5	43	0.41546
Washington	40	72	.357	22.5	71.5	30	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	61	50	.550	---	---	---	51.36310
San Francisco	61	50	.550	---	---	---	18.00222
Chicago	58	51	.532	2.0	4.0	51	4.56220
Florida	58	53	.523	3.0	7.0	49	3.87031
Atlanta	58	54	.518	3.5	9.0	48	4.75462
Houston	55	56	.495	6.0	21.5	46	0.16014
Milwaukee	55	56	.495	6.0	21.5	46	0.41311
New York	52	59	.468	9.0	42.5	43	0.08468
Arizona	50	62	.446	11.5	62.5	40	0.03717
Cincinnati	48	62	.436	12.5	71.5	40	0.00078
San Diego	47	66	.416	15.0	96.5	36	0.00003
Pttsburgh	45	66	.405	16.0	107.5	36	0.00000
Washington	40	72	.357	21.5	173.5	30	0.00000

Elster88
Aug 10 2009 08:55 PM

]I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings.

That just depressed the hell out of me.

duan
Aug 11 2009 05:34 AM

i don't know

every time they look like they *just might* put something together that'd mean they'd claw their way TOWARDS being at least able to duke it out in September they lose two straight and fall back off. I'm still cool with saying if they go 13-6 or something in the remaining August games they'll be well in it, but there's only so many times they can fail to actually have one of those runs and still be able to put enough of them together.
We've really missed a healthy John Maine.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Aug 11 2009 12:06 PM

Re: i don't know

="duan":exl5k9ys]We've really missed a healthy John Maine.[/quote:exl5k9ys]

Since mid-2007.

Edgy DC
Aug 11 2009 12:53 PM

We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.

duan
Aug 11 2009 05:08 PM

="Edgy DC":20movskg]We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.[/quote:20movskg]
totally, it's just that Pelfrey & Hernandez seem to alternate good & bad outings and whoever's in the 4th & 5th slots is usually pretty junky so on the days where we don't score 7 runs we lose more then half the time. I sorta feel if we just had one more stable starter we'd be close to .500 now and if the batters came back could make a go of it.

June 2, 2009

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	29	20	.592	---	---	---
New York	28	22	.560	1.5	1.5	112
Atlanta	25	25	.500	4.5	7.5	109
Florida	24	28	.462	6.5	13.5	106
Washington	13	36	.265	16	51.5	98

Benjamin Grimm · June 8, 2009

I know we all pretend to be disinterested in the Wild Card (until, of course, it's the last weekend of the season and the division has been clinched and we desperately want the Wild Card) but the Mets are currently in a virtual tie for the WC lead with St. Louis. (They're actually .001 ahead.)

Just thought I'd mention it.

Frayed Knot · June 8, 2009

It helps that whilst Met fans wuz crying over the sweep in Pittsburgh and deeming barely acceptable their 2 of 3 over the Nats (and ranting about how good teams "don't let that happen", etc) the Cards were getting swept by the Rockies.

Frayed Knot · June 8, 2009

BTW, that Cards-Rox series which I assumed was a 3-game sweep, wasn't.
It was actually a 4-game series with the getaway game today ... and now it's a 4-game sweep by the Rockies. And in StL too.

June 8, 2009

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	33	22	.600	---	---	---
New York	30	25	.545	3.0	3.0	105
Atlanta	27	28	.491	6.0	9.0	102
Florida	27	31	.466	7.5	13.5	99
Washington	15	40	.273	18.0	55.5	90

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
New York	30	25	.545	---	---	---
St. Louis	31	27	.534	0.5	0.5	105
San Francisco	29	26	.527	1.0	1.5	106
Chicago	28	26	.519	1.5	3.0	106
Cincinnati	29	27	.518	1.5	3.0	105
Atlanta	27	28	.491	3.0	10.5	104
Florida	27	31	.466	4.5	19.0	101
Pttsburgh	26	30	.464	4.5	19.0	102
San Diego	26	30	.464	4.5	19.0	102
Houston	25	30	.455	5.0	24.0	102
Arizona	25	32	.439	6.0	34.0	101
Colorado	25	32	.439	6.0	34.0	101
Washington	15	40	.273	15.0	142.0	92

Sign In

Standings, 2009

Recommended Posts

Guest Edgy DC

Guest metsguyinmichigan

Guest Mendoza Line

Guest themetfairy

Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket

Guest Edgy DC

Guest Edgy DC

Guest Edgy DC

Guest Triple Dee

Guest Triple Dee

Guest Triple Dee

Guest Edgy DC

Guest Edgy DC

Archived

Member Statistics

Prospect News & Highlights

Recent News

Notes & Rumors

Recent Blog Entries

Recent Status Updates