PGT, 3/25, Dead Arm Fever

[Guest Edgy DC]

With the Puerto Ricans rejoining the Mets lineup, the Mexican is the center of the story as Ollie Perez gets battered for six runs in 3.2 innings as the Mets lose 10-6 to the Tigers. Three of those runs came courtesy of a three-run jack by Placido F. Polanco.

The other four Tigerian runs were yielded in a single inning by Ron Villone, and it'll be a minor victory if he's still in camp tomorrow. Sorry, Ron, but those odds were never easy, and you lasted longer than I'd've bet.

A 3-3 day by Tatis takes his average up to .448. Carlos Delgado went 0-2 and dropped to .556. Ah, spring.

Pyrrhic victory for Day-twah as leader-offer Adam Everett and starter Nate Robertson both left the game accompanied by the trainer.

The play Everett got hurt on was sliding into second after Jose Reyes misplayed a pop-up in the sun while wearing no shades.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Valerio de Los Santos was released today too, I see

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Offense seemed to be clicking-- Reyes and Beltran both going 2-3 with doubles-- although I'd feel more comforted had the production come against guys like Rodney, Zumaya and Lyon.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Six walks for Ollie.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy DC wrote: Six walks for Ollie.

So... he's in midseason form, then?

(Rimshot)

[metirish]

Sounds like the Mets are sorry they let Ollie go to the WBC....Dan Wharten with some very pointed remarks about Ollie....

] "I was a little reticent when he left, and my worries have come to fruition," Warthen said. "I think he needs the camaraderie of people that push him. So yes, I think he's a guy that needs to stay with the group and be hands on. Ollie's a guy that has to repeat his delivery time and time again, with a lot of volume delivery-wise. Yes, it set him back. He's set back probably at least 10 days." ". "I think he's out of shape, the arm is out of shape. It's a combination. Since he's come back we really haven't seen the life out of the hand, the ball is just not jumping out right now....I think he's gained a little weight and needs to start pushing himself a little more."

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm sorry they didn't sign somebody better.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think they have a pretty good chance to get as much bang for their buck as anbody else in the starting pitcher market.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

With thanks to Cot's and various team sites-- comparing us to our market peers... (and discovering yet another way that Boston's management has been agonizingly good.)

Johan: 20.0
Ollie: 12.0
Maine: 2.6
Redding: 2.25
Pelfrey: 1.15
Livan: 1.0 (+1.0 in bonuses)
Garcia: 0.5 (+8.0 in bonuses)
Niese: 0.4

8 arms-- only 1 of "ace" quality (say, 20 QS, with 10-15 higher-quality, annually)-- for 41 million. (NOTE: Livan's bonuses counted, Garcia's left out.)

And our salary-level peers:

MFYs

Burnett: 16.5
Sabathia: 14.0 (increases to 23 mil starting 2010)
Pettitte: 5.5
Wang: 5.0
Igawa: 4.0
Joba: 0.43
Kennedy: 0.41
Hughes: 0.42

8 arms-- 1-2 of "ace" quality (if Burnett pitches up to his contract)-- for 46.5 million.

Boston:

Beckett: 10.5 mil
Matsuzaka: 8.0
Smoltz: 5.5 (+5.5 bonuses, at least 2.0 readily achievable-- make the roster, pitch 100 innings, etc.)
Penny: 5.0 (+1.0 r.a. bonuses-- see above)
Wakefield: 4.0
Lester: 1.0 mil
Masterson: 0.4
Buchholz: 0.4

8 potential starting arms-- 3-4 of "ace" quality-- for a total cost of 41 million.

Cubs:

Zambrano: 17.75
Lilly 12.0
Dempster: 8.0
Harden: 7.0
Gaudin: 2.0
Heilman: 1.625
Samardzija: 1.5 (est)
Marshall: 0.42 (est)

8 arms-- 1 of "ace" quality (and special-case Harden)-- for 50.3 million.

[Guest Edgy DC]

What are Freddy Garcia's 8.0 in bonuses, 5.0 readily achievable?

[batmagadanleadoff]

PECOTA implies that Johan Santana and Rich Harden will be this year's strongest candidates for the NL Cy Young Award.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

1.5 for making the 40-man, plus (from best guesses/speculation-- trying to track down the place I'd seen it) 3-4 million in "makes 15 starts/100 innings" type bonuses... the last 1.5 is for topping 200. (Should've noted that with a big "est".)

Also, this-- perhaps erroneously at this point-- assumes Garcia pitches in the majors for about 100 innings.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'd like to see that, because it's hard to imagine both Livan and Garcia hitting their markers.

[metirish]

I think the Mets Santana ,Pelfrey and Maine stack up pretty good with the other teams 1-2-3, what comes after those three is what's concerning . Boston and Chicago's top to bottom looks good. In the NL East I think we match up fine.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

True enough-- bad estimatin' on my part.

Just shaved Garcia's 5 off the cost-- will (optimistically?) leave Livan's on there.

Puts us right about on par with Boston, cost-wise. As for quality...

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

metirish wrote: I think the Mets Santana ,Pelfrey and Maine stack up pretty good with the other teams 1-2-3, what comes after those three is what's concerning . Boston and Chicago's top to bottom looks good. In the NL East I think we match up fine.

At their best, yes. The problem, as far as I'm concerned, is that we're paying known-commodity prices for largely unstable ones. Questions abound about our 5-- even the ones we like. Is Pelf fully developed? Is Maine the first-half-of-2006 Maine, or the one we've seen since... or something else entirely? How the hell does Ollie gain so much weight in 2 weeks, pitching every third day?

(Ollie's contract skews-- "screws," more accurately?-- things mightily here. Frankly, I'd trust Dempster to produce consistently over the life of his contract before I'd trust Ollie to live up to his... and I don't like Dempster's deal at all.)

Top to bottom, Chicago's got guys like Lilly and Harden-- you know what product you're getting; it's just a matter of whether the delivery truck gets to the store (to my mind, Harden's price includes this risk-- at his best, he's Santana-level). And the Sox? Yipes. Our guys are really not in the same league-- Beckett, Dice-K, and Lester have demonstrated repeatable Cy-level ability... and guys like Buchholz, Bowden and Bard have that potential; Smoltz and Penny are competing to be their FIFTH starter.


Also, Irish? The Marlins-- with Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Volstad, Anibal Sanchez and even younger Andrew Miller-- may just have a better rotation top-to-bottom THIS YEAR than we do (never mind going forward).

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Rubin is destroying Ollie on his blog. Killing him!

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yeah, who knew you could get mileage out of referencing "Smells Like Teen Spirit"?

[Benjamin Grimm]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Rubin is destroying Ollie on his blog. Killing him!

="Adam Rubin"]"I only threw like six innings in 19 days, that's not easy coming back here because I'm behind these guys," Perez said. "They have more than 15 innings. I have two more starts and I have to prepare and get ready." Right, because who could've expected a $36 million pitcher to be responsible enough to make sure he got in enough work without Jerry and Warthen having to babysit him?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Somewhat harsh... but still... how hard would it have been to get some bullpen throwing in during/between the games? And how hard would it have been to reach out to Mexican team management-- as almost EVERY other team seemed to, before and during the WBC-- to make sure Ollie gets regular throwing in... or, y'know, doesn't get fat in two weeks away from the team?

(Davey seems to have promised teams from SD to Toronto that he'd let guys "get their innings in," and the Indians were in close contact about Choo's physical condition from day one.)

[metirish]

Ollie is such an easy target for this kind of drubbing from beat writers, he needs to be more responsible.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Speaking of drubbing, the Cards just hung two on Maine in the first.

Two hits.

Three walks.

Yeah, I said three.

[duan]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: With thanks to Cot's and various team sites-- comparing us to our market peers... (and discovering yet another way that Boston's management has been agonizingly good.) Johan: 20.0 Ollie: 12.0 Maine: 2.6 Redding: 2.25 Pelfrey: 1.15 Livan: 1.0 (+1.0 in bonuses) Garcia: 0.5 (+8.0 in bonuses) Niese: 0.4 8 arms-- only 1 of "ace" quality (say, 20 QS, with 10-15 higher-quality, annually)-- for 41 million. (NOTE: Livan's bonuses counted, Garcia's left out.) And our salary-level peers: MFYs Burnett: 16.5 Sabathia: 14.0 (increases to 23 mil starting 2010) Pettitte: 5.5 Wang: 5.0 Igawa: 4.0 Joba: 0.43 Kennedy: 0.41 Hughes: 0.42 8 arms-- 1-2 of "ace" quality (if Burnett pitches up to his contract)-- for 46.5 million. Boston: Beckett: 10.5 mil Matsuzaka: 8.0 Smoltz: 5.5 (+5.5 bonuses, at least 2.0 readily achievable-- make the roster, pitch 100 innings, etc.) Penny: 5.0 (+1.0 r.a. bonuses-- see above) Wakefield: 4.0 Lester: 1.0 mil Masterson: 0.4 Buchholz: 0.4 8 potential starting arms-- 3-4 of "ace" quality-- for a total cost of 41 million. Cubs: Zambrano: 17.75 Lilly 12.0 Dempster: 8.0 Harden: 7.0 Gaudin: 2.0 Heilman: 1.625 Samardzija: 1.5 (est) Marshall: 0.42 (est) 8 arms-- 1 of "ace" quality (and special-case Harden)-- for 50.3 million.

You can't really count Matsuzaka as 8million, when the redsox essentially paid 51million for the rights to his pre free agency period as well as the money on the contract.

Factor that over six years and it's an extra 8.5 million on to the red sox amount.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Going with 2009 luxury-taxable payroll figures, as per Cot's and other confirmable sources.

IOW, performance bonuses count, but non-prorated signing bonuses for FAs or draft picks (which would impact guys like Pelf and Lester, to name two) and posting fees don't.

If we counted those, every team's number creeps up several million, not just the Sawx.

ADDITIONALLY: Matsuzaka's salary goes up significantly over the next couple of years, if not as significantly as Dempster's and Sabathia's do.

[duan]

oh come on. There's a huge difference between posting fees and draft bonuses. The draft bonus included Pelfrey getting a guaranteed contract, you're representing that there and to some degree everyone is paying them. Nobody else has paid ANYTHING like that for the rights to someone for 6 years, it HAS to be factored into the cost. Don't forget the rights went to negotiate went to the person who paid the most.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Great, now you pissed off Morrissey.

[TransMonk]

Seems to me Morrissey gets a lot of Hot Press. At least he put some clothes on.

[duan]

We do have 25 covers a year, I don't get round to displaying them all here though, Funnily enough, until last year we hadn't had him on the cover in a decent while. He's a great interviewee though, very funny and witty.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I wonder what he thinks about lesbian serial killers?

[duan]

you'll have to buy it to find out!