Overusing Santana (split from "Ben Sheets")

[Guest attgig]

I think as long as the mets don't overuse Sheets like the brewers did, he can last through the whole season.

That said, the mets better stop overusing Santana this year. he still has many years left on that contract.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I don't think the Mets overused Santana. Every inning is a roll of the dice with the human arm, but he's paid to pitch. The Mets didn't look for extra from him until their bullpen collapsed and the division was on the line.

Stakes that high, it makes sense to look for more from him. To play their high card, so to speak.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't think Santana was overused either.

Pelfrey, maybe, but not Santana.

[Guest attgig]

="Edgy DC":3pjtfjt5]I don't think the Mets overused Santana. Every inning is a roll of the dice with the human arm, but he's paid to pitch. The Mets didn't look for extra from him until their bullpen collapsed and the division was on the line. Stakes that high, it makes sense to look for more from him. To play their high card, so to speak.[/quote:3pjtfjt5] leaders IP: CC Sabathia 253 Roy Halladay 246 Santana 234.1 people who went over santana's ip: 07: sabathia, Webb 06: Arroyo, Webb, Harang 05: Livan Hernandez, Carpenter, Oswalt, Burhle, Dontrelle 04: Livan, Randy, Burhle, Sheets, Oswalt ... . Not may people top 234 IP a year. I don't want him to break down, like I think Sabbathia may break down. Like Sheets broke down. Looking at someof those IP leaders, it's a bit scary to think where Santana might end up in a couple years.

Edgy DC Jan 20 2009 09:49 AM

I know the numbers. I also know what was at stake was what Santana was signed for. Lst year's stretch run is the type of year you save his arm for.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 20 2009 09:53 AM

I may be hopelessly old-fashioned, but I don't think 234 innings is all that superhuman. In 1973, at the same age, Tom Seaver pitched 290 innings. And it didn't seem to derail his career.

metirish Jan 20 2009 09:57 AM

At no point last season did I think that Santana was pitching too many innings , hell I wanted him out there every day towards the end , he seemed to thrive on it and certainly wanted it.

smg58 Jan 20 2009 11:21 AM

On one hand, Santana had to be used the way he was in order for the Mets to contend. The state of the Mets' bullpen didn't allow for an alternative. On the other hand, the fact that he needed surgery immediately after the season suggests that Santana was indeed used to his limit. And with five or six expensive years still to come, I'd prefer to avoid flirting with that limit on a regular basis.

Edgy DC Jan 20 2009 11:26 AM

So the Mets went out and gassed up the bullpen.

Frayed Knot Jan 20 2009 11:30 AM

The other thing about Santana is that the IP this past year wasn't inconsistent to what he had been doing: (including post-season): 2004 = 240; 2005 = 232; 2006 = 242; 2007 = 219 so his 234 didn't represent a large jump in the workload which is the thing many look to as a warning sign. Also, due to his status as a Rule 5 player, his workload as a young pitcher was lighter than most (certainly Sabathia) and that's usually a good sign as well.

Centerfield Jan 20 2009 11:31 AM

Whether or not the Mets were justified in stretching him, because they had no other option, is a different argument than whether they did or not. I don't really know what "overused" means, so I'll stay away from making that sort of judgment, but I certainly felt late last year that they were pushing Santana to pitch beyond his comfort zone. Looking at the numbers, Johan has gone beyond 230 innings twice before, but considering the contract we're committed too, I'd like to keep that IP total a little lower the next couple of years.

attgig Jan 20 2009 12:03 PM

don't get me wrong. I'm not a fan of the handholding - eg Joba, that some organizations give to certain pitchers. But still, the Mets were relying on him heavily. asking him to go further than expected in games, where he would usually go out. then short rest come down the stretch. Yes, it's good to rely on your superstar, but one starter will only affect 20% of your games...

metsguyinmichigan Jan 20 2009 12:42 PM

Hell, he was probably afraid to walk off the mound and give the ball to someone else. With good reason. I think it's safe to assume that if Putz and MetRod are doing what they can do, Johann can come out of games after the seventh and not expect a no-decision or a loss.

TransMonk Jan 20 2009 12:47 PM

He's an ace. I expect those IP from my ace.

Frayed Knot Jan 20 2009 01:04 PM

="attgig":355pp1z0]... But still, the Mets were relying on him heavily. asking him to go further than expected in games, where he would usually go out. then short rest come down the stretch.[/quote:355pp1z0] See I don't think it was "further than expected". Certainly wasn't further than what he was used to and has already proven he could handle. There were even some questions early on (stupid ones perhaps) about why he wasn't going further more often. And the short rest games were what, like twice at the very end? MFS62 Jan 20 2009 01:17 PM Overworking a pitcher can also be defined as one more pitch than his arm can stand. Arms are fragile and, you never know what will happen on the next pitch. Its something you can't mathematically predict with any degree of certainty. Later attgig Jan 20 2009 03:01 PM http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204015 this is ranking of "pitcher abuse points" the rankings are about what i would expect. the explanation of how they come up with the number: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=148 i haven't had time to read it yet though.. And I'm convinced the brewers have no clue how to handle sheets

[Guest Edgy DC]

I know the numbers.

I also know what was at stake was what Santana was signed for. Lst year's stretch run is the type of year you save his arm for.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I may be hopelessly old-fashioned, but I don't think 234 innings is all that superhuman.

In 1973, at the same age, Tom Seaver pitched 290 innings. And it didn't seem to derail his career.

[metirish]

At no point last season did I think that Santana was pitching too many innings , hell I wanted him out there every day towards the end , he seemed to thrive on it and certainly wanted it.

[smg58]

On one hand, Santana had to be used the way he was in order for the Mets to contend. The state of the Mets' bullpen didn't allow for an alternative.

On the other hand, the fact that he needed surgery immediately after the season suggests that Santana was indeed used to his limit. And with five or six expensive years still to come, I'd prefer to avoid flirting with that limit on a regular basis.

[Guest Edgy DC]

So the Mets went out and gassed up the bullpen.

[Frayed Knot]

The other thing about Santana is that the IP this past year wasn't inconsistent to what he had been doing:
(including post-season): 2004 = 240; 2005 = 232; 2006 = 242; 2007 = 219
so his 234 didn't represent a large jump in the workload which is the thing many look to as a warning sign.

Also, due to his status as a Rule 5 player, his workload as a young pitcher was lighter than most (certainly Sabathia) and that's usually a good sign as well.

[Centerfield]

Whether or not the Mets were justified in stretching him, because they had no other option, is a different argument than whether they did or not.

I don't really know what "overused" means, so I'll stay away from making that sort of judgment, but I certainly felt late last year that they were pushing Santana to pitch beyond his comfort zone.

Looking at the numbers, Johan has gone beyond 230 innings twice before, but considering the contract we're committed too, I'd like to keep that IP total a little lower the next couple of years.

[Guest attgig]

don't get me wrong. I'm not a fan of the handholding - eg Joba, that some organizations give to certain pitchers. But still, the Mets were relying on him heavily. asking him to go further than expected in games, where he would usually go out. then short rest come down the stretch.

Yes, it's good to rely on your superstar, but one starter will only affect 20% of your games...

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

Hell, he was probably afraid to walk off the mound and give the ball to someone else. With good reason.

I think it's safe to assume that if Putz and MetRod are doing what they can do, Johann can come out of games after the seventh and not expect a no-decision or a loss.

[TransMonk]

He's an ace. I expect those IP from my ace.

[Frayed Knot]

="attgig":355pp1z0]... But still, the Mets were relying on him heavily. asking him to go further than expected in games, where he would usually go out. then short rest come down the stretch.[/quote:355pp1z0] See I don't think it was "further than expected". Certainly wasn't further than what he was used to and has already proven he could handle. There were even some questions early on (stupid ones perhaps) about why he wasn't going further more often. And the short rest games were what, like twice at the very end?

MFS62 Jan 20 2009 01:17 PM

Overworking a pitcher can also be defined as one more pitch than his arm can stand. Arms are fragile and, you never know what will happen on the next pitch. Its something you can't mathematically predict with any degree of certainty. Later

attgig Jan 20 2009 03:01 PM

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204015 this is ranking of "pitcher abuse points" the rankings are about what i would expect. the explanation of how they come up with the number: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=148 i haven't had time to read it yet though.. And I'm convinced the brewers have no clue how to handle sheets

[MFS62]

Overworking a pitcher can also be defined as one more pitch than his arm can stand.
Arms are fragile and, you never know what will happen on the next pitch. Its something you can't mathematically predict with any degree of certainty.

Later

[Guest attgig]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204015

this is ranking of "pitcher abuse points"

the rankings are about what i would expect.

the explanation of how they come up with the number:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=148

i haven't had time to read it yet though..



And I'm convinced the brewers have no clue how to handle sheets