Postseason Odds from Baseball Prospectus

[Gwreck]

A Thursday Mets-Cubs rainout gets played Monday, if necessary.

A Friday Mets-Marlins rainout gets played as a separate admission double-header on Saturday, 1:10 and 7:10/8:10.

A Saturday Mets-Marlins rainout gets played Monday, if necessary.

A Thursday Phillies-Braves rainout gets played Monday, if necessary.

A Friday Phillies-Nationals rainout will get made up on Sunday, as they are the national TV game on Saturday afternoon at 3:55.

A Saturday Phillies-Nationals rainout will result in a doubleheader on Sunday.

No rainouts in Milwaukee.

Any tiebreaker games would be played on Tuesday if rainout makeups are played Monday.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Love reading this stuff everyday, Grimm. Thanks.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Some days these daily updates are more of a chore than others. Today is one of those days.

But here we go...

                  W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          89   70   .530   91.0   71.0   85.04305   12.42827   97.47132       -1.03660  15.87417
Mets              87   71   .543   89.3   72.7   14.95695   39.59053   54.54748      -17.59809  -8.10731
Brewers           87   71   .531   89.2   72.8     .00000   47.88558   47.88559       18.58966  -5.92613

David Wright's inability to hit a fly ball last night in the ninth inning has pretty much cost the Mets 17.5 playoff points. Yes, it's nice that the Phillies lost, but it's the Brewers win that killed us yesterday. The Mets would have been much better off, playoff-wise, had the Brewers lost and the Phillies won, even with their own defeat to the Cubs.

Now, they have some doing to do. It's essentially a four-game season, and the Mets have to win more of their four than the Brewers win of their own four games. The schedule sort of favors the Mets, as Milwaukee has to face the Cubs three times while the Mets will be closing against the Marlins, a good team that's not nearly as good as the Cubs. And hopefully the Cubs will be seriously getting their playoff faces on for those last three games. The bad news is that the Mets still have one game against the Cubs while the Brewers are playing the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. If the Mets can avoid losing ground to the Brewers today (in other words, if both teams end up with the same result) the advantage will swing towards the Mets again. And if the Mets expand their lead tonight, that will be significantly better. If the two teams have opposite results today, the team that wins will have a magic number of 3 with three games remaining, which is a decent, but not commanding, position to be in.

The Mets starters the rest of the way are Pedro Martinez tonight in perhaps his last game as a Met, followed by Mike Pelfrey, TBD, and Johan Santana against the Marlins. (That's two shaky starters in four games.) The Brewers will have Yovani Gallardo take on the Pirates, and against the Cubs they'll have Suppan, Bush, and a hopefully exhausted Sabathia.

The Mets loss last night allowed the Phillies to reduce their own magic number to 3. (That's for both the Mets and the Brewers.)

The Mets and Brewers, with their identical records, have matching NHOPs. They each need 5 happy outcomes in 8 games, for an NHOP of 62.5%. Just a few days ago the Mets had an NHOP of 40, so we see how swiftly things can change.

The Mets NHOP regarding the Phillies is 85.7% (6 out of 7) to finish with a better record. It's 71.4%, (5 of 7) to end up tied with the Phils.

These numbers, clearly, have not been moving in a good direction. Things need to turn around very very soon!

[Frayed Knot]

]David Wright's inability to hit a fly ball last night in the ninth inning has pretty much cost the Mets 17.5 playoff points

It cost us a lot more than that considering that a win would have gained us a number
of pct points over where we started the day. Add those to the 17 we lost and it's probably
closer to double that.

[HahnSolo]

Note to self: do not open "Postseason Odds from Baseball Prospectus" Thread in September 2009.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm hoping that the Mets clinch the NL East by August 31, 2009!

[Centerfield]

="Frayed Knot"] ]David Wright's inability to hit a fly ball last night in the ninth inning has pretty much cost the Mets 17.5 playoff points It cost us a lot more than that considering that a win would have gained us a number of pct points over where we started the day. Add those to the 17 we lost and it's probably closer to double that.

To be fair, it's not all on David Wright. Ryan Church blew last night too. Meaning that's only 8.5% points a piece.

[Guest AG/DC]

Brewers get a walkoff win but still fall by 5%.

[Benjamin Grimm]

12.8% chance that NY/PHI tie for the division and wild card without a third team involved.
24.0% chance that Phillies win division, Mets/Brewers tie for WC.
2.6% chance that Mets win, Phillies and Brewers tie for WC.

                  W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          89   70   .531   91.0   71.0   76.80415   18.44227   95.24642       -2.22490   6.40036
Mets              88   71   .543   89.7   72.3   23.19585   38.60003   61.79588        7.24840 -10.84249
Brewers           88   71   .531   89.5   72.5     .00000   42.93533   42.93533       -4.95026   5.63801

As Edgy said, the Brewers lost 5 points despite winning yesterday. The Mets, despite being tied with the Brewers, have a 19% better chance of making the playoffs, mostly because the Mets have two ways in (as do the Phillies) but for the Brewers it's the Wild Card or nothing. Also influencing the disparity, I suspect, is the slightly easier schedule that the Mets have (three against Florida) than the Brewers (three against the Cubs).

Phillies magic number is 3, for both the NL East and the Wild Card.

Mets and Brewers both have Wild Card Magic Numbers of 4 with three to play.

Phillies have an identical NHOP over both the Mets and Brewers: 66.7% (4 of 6)
Mets NHOP over the Brewers (and Brewers over Mets) 50% (3 of 6)

[Benjamin Grimm]

                 W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          90   70   .533   91.3   70.7   97.66125    1.57583   99.23708        3.99066  11.84608
Mets              88   72   .542   89.2   72.8    2.33875   21.99038   24.32913      -37.46675 -63.15132
Brewers           89   71   .532   90.0   72.0     .00000   76.43378   76.43378       33.49845  53.30948

Not much to say here. Everything went wrong yesterday and the Mets drop a huge 37.5 playoff points. 4 of them go to the Phillies and the rest go to the Brewers.

If the Mets win today and the Brewers lose, we should see a dramatic shift back the other way. If that doesn't happen, the Mets are either eliminated or in a must-win-hope-the-Brewers lose situation tomorrow.

[metirish]

It's bleak to say the least.The fundamentals of this team are not sound.

[Benjamin Grimm]

                  W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              89   72   .543   89.6   72.4     .00000   54.68005   54.68005       30.35092 -32.32690
Brewers           89   72   .530   89.5   72.5     .00000   45.31995   45.31995      -31.11383  29.69930

One final update here. Clearly, as we knew, yesterday was a very good day for the Mets. No need to look at NHOP's or magic numbers. We know what needs to happen.