Touched by an Angel

[Guest AG/DC]

Anybody stating to wonder if this guy might be starting-nine-quality material before the year is out?

[Willets Point]

Well I've been fond of him for quite a while.

[soupcan]

Not yet, although I have thought about it.

[Benjamin Grimm]

AG/DC wrote: Anybody stating to wonder if this guy might be starting-nine-quality material before the year is out?

You mean that he'd bump Church or Alou (or Beltran!) from the starting lineup?

I would doubt that. But he looks like we'll be glad to have him around as a fourth outfielder, a guy who won't be a drag on the lineup when he starts.

[Centerfield]

Or he might be Jon Nunnally.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

He's my opening-day left fielder at the moment.

I've never been as high on ND as everyone else and think anyway his best quality is as a defensive replcament or PR/PH guy. Pagan is 3 yrs younger and I think, has a bit of ND Magic to him or Omar wouldn't have gone out his way to acquire him again.

[Guest AG/DC]

soupcan wrote: Not yet, although I have thought about it.

Well, thinking about it is wondering.

="The Thing"]You mean that he'd bump Church or Alou (or Beltran!) from the starting lineup?

Well, Church, maybe. Alou has bumped himself, so there appears to be starting-nine room for him already.

="Centrifuge"]Or he might be Jon Nunnally.

Or a thousand other guys. He's seemingly already graduated from journeyman fringer to platoonist. He may yet graduate further. He hasn't yet hinted at the power to graduate as far as Gary Matthews (another journeyman who came through) has, but maybe as far as Brady Clark did. That wouldn't be such a bad thing to get for Corey Coles and Ryan Meyers.

On the other hand, maybe Coles is the next fringe outfielder to beat the odds and break through.

[smg58]

The Alou injury will at least make it easier to assess Pagan, because we'll get to see if his hitting continues once the games start counting. He may already be preferable to Chavez, which makes me wonder if signing Chavez for two years instead of one was such a good idea. I think I'd still like to see a righty OF/1B with some pop brought in, but I've got no problem with riding Pagan while he's hot and hoping he stays hot indefinitely.

[nymr83]

he's certainly playing his way onto the team, but its just spring training, talk of him starting is very premature

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

No it isn't. We have a vacancy in left field for opening day plus a good five or six weeks following that.

[Farmer Ted]

He's this year's Endy Chavez, if you know what I'm sayin.

[nymr83]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: No it isn't. We have a vacancy in left field for opening day plus a good five or six weeks following that.

a couple of 0-5's in April and everyone will be begging for Endy Chavez or even yelling "Why isn't Fernando ready?" Pagan has never really showed himself to be much of a hitter before and i'm not about to let a couple of weeks of spring training numbers convince me that he's any better than his 318 MLB ABs the last two years (.255/.306/.415) or his last full season (2005 at Norfolk .271/.333/.395) say he is.

[Guest AG/DC]

People get better. It happens all the time. Smarter people see it earlier.

[Guest KC]

roto roto man
I wanna be
a roto man

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Nymr83 wrote: ="John Cougar Lunchbucket"]No it isn't. We have a vacancy in left field for opening day plus a good five or six weeks following that. a couple of 0-5's in April and everyone will be begging for Endy Chavez or even yelling "Why isn't Fernando ready?" Pagan has never really showed himself to be much of a hitter before and i'm not about to let a couple of weeks of spring training numbers convince me that he's any better than his 318 MLB ABs the last two years (.255/.306/.415) or his last full season (2005 at Norfolk .271/.333/.395) say he is.

Curious what Endy Chavez might have shown you through 2005. Curious what convinces you even that Chavez is better than Pagan right now.

[nymr83]

so Pagan has gotten better and the evidence is 2 weeks of spring training numbers? i understand wanting to be enthusiastic about a new acquisition, but i don't understand letting 30 at bats that don't even count make a dent in the perception of a guy that 313 major league and 2400+ minor league ABs that a guy has already racked up.

[nymr83]

]Curious what Endy Chavez might have shown you through 2005. Curious what convinces you even that Chavez is better than Pagan right now.

my point wasn't that Chavez was clearly better right now, only that the same people talking up Pagan after a few spring at bats will be calling for a replacement for him if he isn't hitting in a few days of real games.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

The question was never about Pagan supposedly proving anything in 30 spring training at-bats. Nobody here is saying that, ayt least I'm not. The question was who's going to play left field on opening day.

You're arguing that its too early to consider Pagan an option and advocating Endy Chavez.

Why?

[Guest AG/DC]

="Nymr83"]so Pagan has gotten better and the evidence is 2 weeks of spring training numbers?

Maybe. Better evidence is that he's simply a year older and players tend to get better as they approach 30. Other evidence is the team's commitment to him.

But I didn't say he got better. I said "Anybody sta[r]ting to wonder if this guy might be starting-nine-quality material before the year is out?" It's fair to speculate.

Somebody suspected going into 2006 that Endy Chavez had more than he had shown. That person was smart, banking on the unseen.

[Guest Triple Dee]

="AG/DC"] ="soupcan"]Not yet, although I have thought about it. Well, thinking about it is wondering. ="The Thing"]You mean that he'd bump Church or Alou (or Beltran!) from the starting lineup? Well, Church, maybe. Alou has bumped himself, so there appears to be starting-nine room for him already.

I think you're undervaluing Church, just a little bit. Church has slugged >.500 at every level, including in the Great Plains of RFK. Pagan has not slugged .500 at any level.

[Guest Triple Dee]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: The question was never about Pagan supposedly proving anything in 30 spring training at-bats. Nobody here is saying that, ayt least I'm not. The question was who's going to play left field on opening day. You're arguing that its too early to consider Pagan an option and advocating Endy Chavez. Why?

Chavez showed in 2006 that he can put up numbers that come close to an "MLB average" outfielder. Having said that, I'm not terribly confident he can actually reproduce those numbers.

[Guest AG/DC]

I'm really not trying to. Church could bring a lot to this team. I'm just hoping to see Pagan evolve into starter material, especially since, you know, there's a job open in left.

It's fun to see somebody break out. And he's worth watching in that regard. People break out at 26-27.

[Guest Triple Dee]

AG/DC wrote: I'm really not trying to. Church could bring a lot to this team. I'm just hoping to see Pagan evolve into starter material, especially since, you know, there's a job open in left. It's fun to see somebody break out. And he's worth watching in that regard. People break out at 26-27.

I'd like to see Pagan break out as much as anyone. Realistically, however, the odds are against it.

The other point is, I think it's redundant to have both Chavez and Pagan on the same 25 man roster (whether Alou is available or not). That's why I'd like the Mets to trade for somebody like Marcus Thames, who is a legitimate threat to hit the ball out of the park, in a back-up role.

[nymr83]

]Maybe. Better evidence is that he's simply a year older and players tend to get better as they approach 30.

i think evidence has shown that the average "peak" year is lower than 30, most hitters will NOT tend to get better until 30 but until somewhere in the 26-28 range, or so i've seen somewhere.

and yeah Church is alot better than the media gives him credit for. If he repeats last year's numbers I'm happy to have him, if he approaches his rate stats from 2006 over a full season I'd be very very happy.

[smg58]

Triple Dee wrote: The other point is, I think it's redundant to have both Chavez and Pagan on the same 25 man roster (whether Alou is available or not). That's why I'd like the Mets to trade for somebody like Marcus Thames, who is a legitimate threat to hit the ball out of the park, in a back-up role.

I'm good with that. Thames and Xavier Nady are guys I think you have to look into, as are Kendry Morales and Justin Huber, who aren't likely to make the Opening Day rosters of their current teams but would fit here.

[Guest AG/DC]

="Nymr83"] ]Maybe. Better evidence is that he's simply a year older and players tend to get better as they approach 30. most hitters will NOT tend to get better until 30 but until somewhere in the 26-28 range, or so i've seen somewhere.

I think there's a subtle but important distinction between "players tend to get better as they approach 30" and the "players tend to get bettter until 30." Improvements come in fits and starts, two steps up and one step back.

I'd certainly like to see where the average peak year is established, but as Pagan will be 26 this year, it's not woth hammering out here.

As for continuing to shop, fine to entertain crushes on some of these guys, but since we maxed out the card on Johan Santana, we may have to get used to the players we have.

Nady's been more popular as an ex-Met than he ever was as a Met. He's probably not the first guy in that regard, but it's been funny to see.

[Guest Triple Dee]

="smg58"]I'm good with that. Thames and Xavier Nady are guys I think you have to look into, as are Kendry Morales and Justin Huber, who aren't likely to make the Opening Day rosters of their current teams but would fit here.

Both Thames and Nady hit lh pitching hard. And the one thing that concerns me about Church, is that he can't. However, unlike Nady, Thames is surplus requirements in Dee-troit. He also makes less than 1/2 as much money.

Can Morales play OF?

I read somewhere Huber is out of options; he's been on a mini-tear this Spring(.533/1.000), equalling his career RBI total in 12abs -- I have no idea what KC's depth is like; they currently have him playing OF.

[Guest sharpie]

Nady is a starter with the Pirates. He'd cost us too much at this point to be a platoon player with the Mets.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

FWIW, PECOTA has Pagan with a .249/.313/.389 slash stats in 174 PA. Decent breakout and improvement chances, but his blurb basically has him pegged as a solid 4th outfielder who's helpful because of his ability to run and switch hit.

I'd like to give Church a shot to start full time and hit the lefties. If he really turns out to be that bad, there's always somebody available out there as a strictly lefty-only platoon hitter. Guys like Huber and Nady have been mentioned. The loser of Cleveland's Jason Michaels/Ben Francisco battle to pair up with Dave Dellucci comes to mind.

[Guest AG/DC]

I agree on Church.

Please hear what I'm saying as, "Could Pagan develop into something going forward?" rather than "Pagan should be given someone's job NOW!!!!