Lohse vs. Silva

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Let's pretend it comes down to one of these two for the Mets. I don't wanna argue about $$ and years, so let's assume we pay whatever the market determines to be their price.

Who do you prefer and why?

Make a case!

[Benjamin Grimm]

I voted Silva.

Six months younger. (Not that that's a big deal at all.) And Hispanic!

Pitches more innings per year.

Better lifetime WHIP and ERA.

Lohse, though, has a better lifetime BAA and strikes out (and walks) more batters.

Both give up homers at about the same pace.

Silva had a better 2007.

And, not to be overlooked, Silva will attract more viewers to SNY and more fans to the new stadium which will open in 2009. (I've learned that you're supposed to say that whenever you advocate the Mets getting a particular player.)

[metirish]

I voted Silva, not enamored with either player though, Loshe would give the Mets one of only four Native Americans in MLB so that's a plus.

Both are nibblers?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Though Silva has had more success, I think Lohse has the better raw materials and so could be better than Silva.

Lohse has to be a more intriguing enrollee in Peterson University.

[Guest sharpie]

I voted Carlos.

Heigh-ho Silva!

[metirish]

Loshe was part of the deal that brought Rick Aguilera to the Cubs, not that that means squat.

[duan]

Carlos Silva strikes out less then 4 men per 9 innings.
I fear that, unless someone's shown me a sustained and prolonged track record. Carlos Silva has not. The difference between his good years and his bad years is mostly BABIP or giving up dingers. I don't think (but I don't know) that he's the kind of extreme sinker ball pitcher that gets lotsa groundouts all the time.
I wouldn't go with either, but if you put a gun to my head i'll go with Lohse.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Keith Law prefers Lohse to Silva but isn't hot for either.

Useful list.

http://tinyurl.com/38sqg8

[Valadius]

Jeff Passan ranks Silva over Lohse. Here are his rankings of 144 free agents:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Apps9JuCo59h.XyIbGip5gsHU84F?slug=jp-freeagentrankings111207&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Bump.

Will it still come down to this?! Internet sez the Mets and Phils are each offering Lohse 4 year deals.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Go one year for Kris Benson instead.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I wondered about Kris Benson myself. I haven't heard anything about the Mets being one of the dozen or so teams considering him. I suspect that the Wilpons may have a strong Anna aversion.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I can't see the Mets doing it, and sounds like benson wouldn't either, inasmuch as he's likely to get 1-year offers elsewhere.

These are the situations where the Mets find themselves offering 2 years, only now, you're talking about 2 years of Kris F. Benson who already was given every chance to become a good Met and didn't.

[smg58]

My vote is for not blocking Mike Pelfrey with established mediocrity.

[Valadius]

Silva's negotiating with the Mariners.

[Guest vtmet]

smg58 wrote: My vote is for not blocking Mike Pelfrey with established mediocrity.

what he said...I'd rather break spring training with giving both Pelfrey and Humber a few turns in the rotation at the same time with El'Duque in the pen for a while to see if either/both can mature enough to be at least useful bottom of the rotation guys...using the time to see how they handle things and to see if there are flaws that Professor Peterson can spot and fix...then move El'Duque back into the rotation while the youngin' is getting tweaked by Rick...both pitchers have close to 300 innings under their belt since college (isn't the reason FOR drafting college pitchers, is so that you don't have to wait along time for them to be ready?)...Yankees pitching prospects have less minor league innings (even after being drafted out of High School on some of them) and showed maturity at the mlb level...

[Guest Edgy DC]

smg58 wrote: My vote is for not blocking Mike Pelfrey with established mediocrity.

Me, too. That's why I wanted one year of Bensoniana.

One year shouldn't block anybody. Four years is a Hoover damn. Stick him in New Orleans while he rehabs. Pull him up when somebody falters or gets hurt by a pair of salad tongs. If a role doesn't open up for him or he's not rebounding, send him back to Pittsburgh.

[Vic Sage]

i don't know why anyone thinks signing an "innings eater" is going to block anybody from getting into a rotation with Pedro and El Duque as 2 of its mainstays. There will be plenty of opportunities for a "6th starter" this year.

[Guest vtmet]

Vic Sage wrote: i don't know why anyone thinks signing an "innings eater" is going to block anybody from getting into a rotation with Pedro and El Duque as 2 of its mainstays. There will be plenty of opportunities for a "6th starter" this year.

It's still money unnecessarily spent on a crap pitcher...and after the Kaz experience (amongst others), do we want a guy that gets to play simply because Wilpon is cutting him a pretty healthy check?

[Vic Sage]

what's going on with Freddie Garcia? Is he supposed to be coming back from surgery this year? I'd sooner take a flyer on him, or Mark Prior, then either Lohse or Silva.

[Guest Edgy DC]

This has nothing to do with Matsui.

[Vic Sage]

]unnecessarily spent on a crap pitcher

But you're begging the question: why is the money being "unnecessarily" spent? And how do you define "crap"?

With Pedro and El Duque likely to miss at least 20 starts between them, we'll need another starter in ADDITION to a 5th starter.

So, i'd say the money would be "necessarily" spent, because I haven't seen anything from our kiddie corps that gives me confidence that any of them could give us 200+ even merely mediocre innings. And i don't think guys who produce around league average are "crap"... at least not compared to kids who haven't shown any indication of even being mediocre.

[Frayed Knot]

vtmet wrote: ... I'd rather break spring training with giving both Pelfrey and Humber a few turns in the rotation at the same time with El'Duque in the pen for a while to see if either/both can mature enough to be at least useful bottom of the rotation guys...

Do keep in mind that this team has used 13 starters in each of the last two seasons - all but 4 of them for 3 starts or more. It's not like getting a spare vet (barring lengthy contracts) is going to block out a Pelfrey/Humber type from getting their chances.

] ... both pitchers have close to 300 innings under their belt since college (isn't the reason FOR drafting college pitchers, is so that you don't have to wait along time for them to be ready?)...

176 minors + 94 MLB for Pelfrey;
289 + 9 for Humber but never more than 139 in any one season and a major surgery in the middle there

]Yankees pitching prospects have less minor league innings (even after being drafted out of High School on some of them) and showed maturity at the mlb level...

The only Yanqui HS pitcher right now is Hughes who threw a total of 275 IPs in the minors (plus 73 MLB) spread out over 4 seasons.
Chamberlain & Kennedy were college hurlers and, while both went thru the minors very quickly, they still have all of 43 IPs combined at the MLB level.

[smg58]

Vic Sage wrote: i don't know why anyone thinks signing an "innings eater" is going to block anybody from getting into a rotation with Pedro and El Duque as 2 of its mainstays. There will be plenty of opportunities for a "6th starter" this year.

That's certainly true. But I'd rather pay a smaller amount for a good reliever and use Sosa in the sixth starter role, or find a Benson-type pitcher who'll sign for a year without drawing comparisons to Jose Lima and Chan Ho Park, than commit that much money and time to guys I already know will be OK at best and who themselves had Lima-like stretches as recently as 2006.

[Frayed Knot]

An offical 'Carlos Silva to the Mariners' announcement is expected today.
Indications are for somewhere in the $11 x 4 range.



Meanwhile the Phils are saying they're out of the Kyle Lohse race on account of their refusal to go for more than 3 years.
I'd like to think that Omar won't go for more than 3 either.

[Guest Edgy DC]

The Mets were listed at four years, $40 million for Silva. I'm not seeing that kind of lettuce for Lohse.

I mean... Lohse, you know?

[Benjamin Grimm]

="Frayed Knot"]Meanwhile the Phils are saying they're out of the Kyle Lohse race on account of their refusal to go for more than 3 years. I'd like to think that Omar won't go for more than 3 either.

Who else is in the "race?"

The last thing I heard was Mets and Phillies. If the Phillies are dropping out, does that mean it's just the Mets? Or is there someone else that may end up getting Lohse. (I'm not sure which way I'm rooting here. They could use another arm, and I'd rather see them get it through a signing than by trading prospects, but I'm among those who aren't thrilled about a lengthy commitment to Lohse.)

[Valadius]

Lohse has a mediocre arm. He'd just take up space in the rotation.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Just arguing here, but that "mediocre arm" produces a fine 2:1 K:BB ratio, though not all that many K's or BB's; and he's still relatively young and never really employed in a "pitcher's park." Unsexy though it may be, 150+ innings of reliable mediocrity -- which is what Lohse is all about (plus a small upside) -- is a good thing to have at the back-end of your rotation, and/or to fill in as needs arise further up the chain, and they will.

[Fman99]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Just arguing here, but that "mediocre arm" produces a fine 2:1 K:BB ratio, though not all that many K's or BB's; and he's still relatively young and never really employed in a "pitcher's park." Unsexy though it may be, 150+ innings of reliable mediocrity -- which is what Lohse is all about (plus a small upside) -- is a good thing to have at the back-end of your rotation, and/or to fill in as needs arise further up the chain, and they will.

Unless he gets Kevin Appier's contract to come here. Then it's a colossal fuck-up.

I have to believe that 180 innings of Humber/Pelfrey/retread-C/etc. can put up comparable numbers without the idiotic salary.