Schaefer commentary

[Guest Kid Carsey]

I can usually find ten points in a win without stretching too much. The "con-
test" is a measure of successes, handing out ten points for a game like yes-
terdays just doesn't make any sense to me.

We've been through all this a number of times, I don't mean to rehash the ar-
guments - everyone should just do what they want - like everything else here.

[nymr83]

well if everyone can just do what the want i should be allowed to give 8 points to the guy who throws a 3-hit shutout or to Alfonzo's 6-6 3HR game, but yeah we've been htrough all this, its an unscheduled offday what else can we talk about?

[Guest Edgy DC]

="Nymr83"]what else can we talk about?

Start a thread on any of these themes:

• Mr. Met is cool.



• The giddy pop stylings of Don Ho's daugter aren't so bad.



• HooDoo Gurus. They rocked.



• Will Willie's Jackie Robinson tribute get re-scheduled?



• How about Dodgers by the Numbers? Does that poor theoretical schlub have to add 25 names to the list of guys who wore 42 for the team?



• Once upon a time, the Mets planned for a retractable roof on their new stadium. What happened there?



• I know the retractable field got replaced by a field that would be planted on removeable tiles. You think they're following through on that?



• Theoretically, if only one of the two new stadia in New York had a retractable roof, both the Yankees and the Mets could avoid any postponements. Do you think they though of that?



• I just heard "16 Blue." Sometimes, even in the imperfect parts of a Replacements song, it all comes through so true that it hurts. You know, there's a story in the liner notes of a 'Mats anthology I got. Seems the band got wind that Twin Tone was going to release their early albums on CD, thought it was a desacration, got drunk and stupid, talked their way into the Twin Tone offices, got their hands on their early masters, and tossed the tapes into the river. Think there's any truth there at all?



• Think Newhan lasts the year? Impossible, I say, if Green and Alou both remain healthy, but I guess that's unlikely.



• Milledge, Gomez, and Johnson: best outfield in AAA?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Nymr83 wrote: well if everyone can just do what the want i should be allowed to give 8 points to the guy who throws a 3-hit shutout or to Alfonzo's 6-6 3HR game, but yeah we've been htrough all this, its an unscheduled offday what else can we talk about?

It's a scale of 1 to 6, not a scale of 1 to 10.

I don't see why that's so hard to understand.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for the April 12 game against the Phillies will close on Tuesday morning.

http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6082

[metsmarathon]

Nymr83 wrote: I think this project gets hurt by the huge difference in voter turnout for wins and losses

phooey!

although i volunteer somebody else to chart voters per win, and voters per loss.

we can also commission a statistical lanalysis to evaluate the variance in votes between high-turnout games and low-turnout games, to the extent that we would then be able to extrapolate out just what effect the missing voters have.

granted, if the mets would only do their fucking jobs right, we wouldn't be having this discussion, as there would be no more losses!

[Benjamin Grimm]

If you want to figure out votes per win, votes per loss, votes per score differential, and more, these pages will tell you:

http://potg.leaptoad.com/mets/rawdata.php?year=2006
http://potg.leaptoad.com/mets/rawdata.php?year=2007

Just paste into a spreadsheet and have fun.


The number of voters in a game has little impact, though. Fewer voters means less diversity of opinion, but each game still gets counted equally. The votes are averaged, not totaled.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

We should have ordered more beer for last night's 8-1 win over the Phillies. There just wasn't enough Schaeffer to go around.

[Frayed Knot]

Reyes made too many outs on the basepaths Tuesday night to get anything more than a token sip from me despite two hits, a real nice defensive play, and being part of another bushel of GiDPs turned.






* Newly minted Bret Saberhagen post

[Benjamin Grimm]

And the Schaefer Mets Most Frequently Misspelled Name of the Month Award for April goes to...

Scott Schoeneweis!

(I haven't memorized the spelling yet myself.)

Everyone who misspells the name gets tripped up on the same letter: that E that comes between the N and the W.

[dinosaur jesus]

Do I get extra weenie points if I spell it Schöneweis?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm afraid my spreadsheet doesn't handle weenie points.

Sorry.

[nymr83]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: If you want to figure out votes per win, votes per loss, votes per score differential, and more, these pages will tell you: http://potg.leaptoad.com/mets/rawdata.php?year=2006 http://potg.leaptoad.com/mets/rawdata.php?year=2007 Just paste into a spreadsheet and have fun. The number of voters in a game has little impact, though. Fewer voters means less diversity of opinion, but each game still gets counted equally. The votes are averaged, not totaled.

but each voter has a greater influence when there are fewer voters, this canbe especially telling if someone were to vote say "pedro 1" and nothing else for that game, they'd dilute all the other votes as if they'd voted "pedro 1 nobody 9" because the other players are all getting divided by the number of voters even if some of those voters didn't vote for 10 pts worth of players.

[Benjamin Grimm]

True, but I don't recall that such a thing has happened all that much.

I remember once somebody gave Trachsel only one point for pitching a shutout. And I also recall Glavine getting only one point once for 7 innings and 1 earned run.

You're right, though: win or lose, the more voters the better.

[metsmarathon]

Nymr83 wrote: ="Yancy Street Gang"]If you want to figure out votes per win, votes per loss, votes per score differential, and more, these pages will tell you: http://potg.leaptoad.com/mets/rawdata.php?year=2006 http://potg.leaptoad.com/mets/rawdata.php?year=2007 Just paste into a spreadsheet and have fun. The number of voters in a game has little impact, though. Fewer voters means less diversity of opinion, but each game still gets counted equally. The votes are averaged, not totaled. but each voter has a greater influence when there are fewer voters, this canbe especially telling if someone were to vote say "pedro 1" and nothing else for that game, they'd dilute all the other votes as if they'd voted "pedro 1 nobody 9" because the other players are all getting divided by the number of voters even if some of those voters didn't vote for 10 pts worth of players.

ah, but what's the actual impact of doing that? for the specific game, it really only affects the divisor, and likely would not terribly affect the total rankings either at the end of the month, or at the end of the year.

the greatest impact in a given game would come from someone awarding a 6 where no points are warranted, or a 0 where 6 points are warranted. in this case, the maximum theoretical single game impact would be 6/n schaefer points, where n is the number of voters.

the real impact would be

dS = (6/n)-[V/(n-1)]

where dS is the change in the schaefer vote, n is hte number of voters, V is the total of the other voters' points, and n-1 is the number of other voters who are not trying to much up the works.

we can replace [V/(n-1)] with S' which is the schaefer vote for a given player if that doesn't include the wacky voter's opinion.

once you have more than 5 voters for a given game, the most any one person can affect the vote of a given game is one point. and that's if he gives out a 6 to a player nobody else voted for, or a 0 for a consensus 6.

if the one guy gives a 4 to somebody we all think should get a 2, then the impact is less than a third of a point with more than 5 total voters - and i think that's more likely a difference of opinion than a 6/0 situation.

much like voting for president, your vote isnt as important as you think it should be... but thankfully, neither is anybody else's!

[nymr83]

tough one tonight, made easier by the 2 runs off Maine even though they didn't matter.
I think i would have only given him 5 at most even if he didn't allow those runs...with a 4-0 lead before you even take the mound and more runs coming fast its just hard to give you too much

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Tuesday night's Mets win in Philadelphia will close on Friday morning.

http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6123

[nymr83]

Nymr83 wrote: tough one tonight, made easier by the 2 runs off Maine even though they didn't matter. I think i would have only given him 5 at most even if he didn't allow those runs...with a 4-0 lead before you even take the mound and more runs coming fast its just hard to give you too much

great outing by hernandez, i capped him at 4 for the same reason i did to Maine last night, a 6-spot in the 3rd makes pitching easy

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Wednesday's game in Florida will close some time this weekend.

http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6131

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for the second win over the Marlins will close on Tuesday morning:

Thursday's game: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6141

On Wednesday I'll close the voting for each of the three games at Shea against Atlanta and (if I remember) I'll also post the season-to-date totals:

Friday's game: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6151
Saturday's game: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6155
Sunday's game: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6163

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Monday's 6-1 win over the Rockies will close on Thursday morning.

José Reyes is looking like a player of the month right now, but Carlos Beltran still has a few games remaining in which he can make a run at the title.

Pitcher of the Month is a close battle between Glavine and Hernandez as of this tally, but both John Maine and Hernandez have good efforts that haven't been totaled yet.




Month-to-date totals for April 2007
Through game of April 22, 2007

Rank	Name	Points
1	José Reyes	20.57
2	Carlos Beltran	16.13
3	Orlando Hernandez	13.24
4	Tom Glavine	12.34
5	Shawn Green	10.29
6	Moises Alou	10.10
7	John Maine	9.69
8	Carlos Delgado	8.21
9	Oliver Perez	7.86
10	José Valentin	6.80
11	Paul Lo Duca	6.13
12	David Wright	5.69
13	Joe Smith	4.87
14	Ramon Castro	4.38
15	Scott Schoeneweis	3.54
16	Billy Wagner	2.45
17	Aaron Sele	2.44
18	Aaron Heilman	1.84
19	Pedro Feliciano	1.83
20	Endy Chavez	1.77
21	Julio Franco	1.54
22	Ambiorix Burgos	1.33
23	Mike Pelfrey	1.32
24	Damion Easley	0.83

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I loved Chavez' hit every bit as much as Easley's but they can't possibly weigh the same, people.

[soupcan]

I see your point but Chavez deserves at least 2 points for that and if I'm giving Duque 4 I can't justify giving Easley 3.

Its a very complicated process that I use to determine these things you know..

[metirish]

For me 2/2 and 4 seem about right.

[Guest holychicken]

Johnny Dickshot wrote: I loved Chavez' hit every bit as much as Easley's but they can't possibly weigh the same, people.

Why not? One stopped us from losing the game and one won the game. Both were hits that resulted in 1 RBI. Not only that, but the latter was a smart play. He didn't just hit the ball, he saw a weakness in the defense and put down a perfect bunt to exploit it. Two out game winning RBIs on perfectly placed bunts do deserve a lot of credit, IMO.

To be honest, I can see giving Easley a slight edge from a win expectancy angle, but I find the fact that not only did you give Easley MORE points but more than 6x the amount of points to be a bit over the top. To each his own, eh?

[Gwreck]

I have no problem giving Duque less than 4. Unfortunately, his effort became slightly marginalized by the extra innings, as what led to the win included quality relief in late/extra innings (which is always point-worthy).

I agree though that Chavez' hit cannot possibly be worth as much as Easley's homer. We were down to the last strike, and down a run.

Endy was great but other people could've won that game or we could've gone to another inning if he didn't get it done. For Easley, it was him or we lose.

[Guest Edgy DC]

As my broadcast cut out, I heard the Shea PA guy announcing the co-recipients of the house PotG as Easley and ND. Come on. Hernandez is any less excellent and Endy never gets into the game.

[nymr83]

]Why not? One stopped us from losing the game and one won the game. Both were hits that resulted in 1 RBI. Not only that, but the latter was a smart play. He didn't just hit the ball, he saw a weakness in the defense and put down a perfect bunt to exploit it. Two out game winning RBIs on perfectly placed bunts do deserve a lot of credit, IMO.

because its easier to drive in a runner on third than it is to drive in yourself.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Easley didn't just hit the ball. He hit it very very far, with nobody setting him up with a runner on third, and no Greek God Player of the Week behind him. Making a loss into a tie is just as big as makign a tie into a win, and he did it all alone.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I adjusted my Endy vote up slightly but still 300% below my man Damion.

Someone please find Win Expectancy chart