How Many Home Runs Will Reyes Hit?

[Guest Rotblatt]

Reyes has hit 3 HR in 36 PA this spring, leading the team in exhibition play. If he continued at that rate all year and amassed 600 PA, he'd hit exactly 50 HR.

How many dingers will Jose hit this year?

Oh, and I suppose I should mention that Reyes hit all of 19 HR last year.

[MFS62]

I'd be happier if the question was how many walks will Jose get this year, and the numbers started in the 80's.
Then, the homers would be ok.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

If I were in charge of picking an over/under number that I think would get sufficient action on both sides I'd go with around 23 or 24

[metirish]

I went with 26 to 30,why can't Jose hit that many home runs and steal 70+ bases?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I voted low 20's.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

It'll be tough for Reyes to add to his SB and HR pace simultaneously. I in fact predict if one goes up the other dips.

[metirish]

Johnny Dickshot wrote: It'll be tough for Reyes to add to his SB and HR pace simultaneously. I in fact predict if one goes up the other dips.

Ok,if that is the case which would you like to see go up?,I really don't get why Jose hitting a lot of home runs seems to be a bad thing for some people(not saying you JD),just in general,some people in the media and on the board seem to think that it's not his game,but Reyes is not exactly like most SS out there.

[Benjamin Grimm]

It doesn't much matter to me if he's 20-70 or 40-40, as long as he's productive.

Get on base, score runs. Help the Mets win.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I'm for players on my team hitting the ball as far as it will go.

For Reyes, more HRs would = fewer times on base to steal. I don't see his HRs coming *in addition to* his other times on base, just as a different mix of the same.

[Guest Rotblatt]

To me, the only problem is if Reyes gets homer happy and starts trying to pull the ball instead of hitting it where it's pitched. He did a pretty nice job last year, if you ask me, and from his early work, he hasn't let up at all.

He's walked 4 times this spring (tied for the lead on the team), struck out just once, and stolen 6 bases without getting caught.

Right now, he's doing it all, and if he gets on a couple streaks like his over the course of the season, I don't see why he couldn't go 30-30. Or, more likely, 30-60.

I wouldn't go so far as to PREDICT it, but he's got the potential if you ask me. Now, PECOTA doesn't think so, predicting Reyes is most likely to hit 14 HRs this year, with 20 at a maximum (90th percentile projection), and it doesn't see Reyes breaking 17 dingers at all over the next five years.

But Reyes dramatically outperformed PECOTA's wildest projection last year, so I think it's fair to say that PECOTA doesn't have the best handle on Reyes.

[metirish]

What were PECOTA'S projections for Reyes last season?,why would they think he's going to do worse this season,makes little sense.

[Edgy MD]

1) Hitting fewer home runs would not necessarily mean doing worse.

2) Players fall back after large steps forward all the time, just as they rebound after lousy seasons.

[Guest Rotblatt]

metirish wrote: What were PECOTA'S projections for Reyes last season?,why would they think he's going to do worse this season,makes little sense.

I don't remember his specific PECOTA projection from last year, but I remember doing a recap towards the end of the season, and IIRC Reyes had outperformed almost all of his 90th percentile projections.

In terms of his 2007 mean projection, his projected VORP is 40.1, down from 58.8 in 2006, and they've got his AVG, OBP & SLG dropping pretty substantially, along with his BB/K ratio.

Like Edgy says, PECOTA seems to be viewing 2006 as a one-off for the time being. That being said, PECTOA definitely upgraded its projections for Reyes after his break-out last year.

[Frayed Knot]

The thing about PECOTA - both its strength and weakness - is that it depends on 'comparables', those players who match up best not only in stats but also in age, position, and even body type.
Hearing as often as we did last year about how unique Reyes's 2006 season was it's tough to figure that there are all that many comparables and even tougher to figure those few would have improved upon a season like that at that age.

That said, it's not all that hard to see some "regression" after such a big jump. It also shouldn't be all that big a cause for concern if he did.
ARod went from; .359 / .141 / .641 w/36 HRs in the year he turned 21
- to .300 / .350 / .496 w/23 HRs the following season
and it certainly didn't foreshadow a crash & burn
(we all knw he didn't crash & burn until he got to NYC)

[seawolf17]

[Guest d'Kong76]

25

[Guest cooby]

I would be happy with 5 to 10.

[Guest SI Metman]

I'm feeling 25-30 and wouldn't be surprised if he joins the 30-30 club. Now if the 2 people behind him in the lineup (Wright and Beltran) want to join that club too, then the Mets are in business.

[Vic Sage]

i'm saying 25/60 this year, and 30/50 on average for the following 6-7 years, with a peak of 35/70 somewhere along the way.

Or he rips up his tendons, ligaments, muscles and hamstrings so often, they have to put him down like Barbaro.

[Edgy MD]

I just don't think he has to --- or should necessarily should --- develop a home-run swing.

When Rickey Henderson hit 24 homers, it was speculated that he had 30-30 potential (or actually 30-80). But it was probably far better that he let his power peak in the 20s and kept pounding out those .400+ OBP seasons, saving his homer swing for when he had the pitcher set up.

The funny thing about switch hitting is that, with a few exceptions --- Mickey Mantle, Eddie Murray --- you often develop two different batting styles. Jose seems to like to drive the high ball as a righthanded batter, and golf the lowball as a lefty. I don't want him messing around too much looking for more power. I'd rather he just develop his plate discipline as best he can, hit the ball where it's pitched, let the power come, and enjoy it if it leaves the park.

His doubles and triples pump up his slugging percentage without him having to knock one out.

[Vic Sage]

i don't think he needs to develop a home run swing. He already has one. Reyes is taller and leaner than Ricky. A sinewy type, he'll likely get bigger and stronger over the years, as players are want to do.

He still might average in the 15-20 hr range for a little while, but i think an average between 25-30 hrs for a prolonged part of his career is totally reasonable projection, based on his physique and quick bat.

as far as the lefty/righty thing goes, he's just an all around better hitter from the right side. period. As time goes on, he might simply develop a better left-handed stroke, which would add to his power numbers, as well.

[Guest cooby]

I love this young man and I am in no way dissatified with his HR production this year. He doesn't need to hit tons of them to be a wonderful player.

[metirish]

Boy a whole bunch of us were wrong about the total.

[Guest cooby]

Man, I must have been feeling good when I wrote all of the above, but my sentiments are the same. Jose doesn't have to hit homeruns for me to appreciate him as a player.