Who should start NLCS Game 7?

[Guest holychicken]

Edgy DC wrote: That's highly speculative. He was fine his first time out in LA. HIs early exit was more a result of shakey gloves than shakey feelings.

True, it is speculative. . . however, isn't that we are doing now? Speculating who will be a better starter?

Even if you want to throw out that point, I still like Oliver. The team seemed a lot more jazzed when he was out there (maybe that was partially because of the offensive explosion) and considering that Trachsel has pitched in exactly one more post season game than Oliver (1.1 less innings, I should point out) it is not like he really has experience on his side.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

My argument for Darren Oliver is that I'd prefer the guy who pitched six scoreless innings and has four days rest to the guy with the "stuff" but the shakey outing and only three days rest.

I know Darren Oliver hasn't started since 2004. But was his appearance in Game 3 all that different from a start? He came in in the second inning instead of the first. And he pitched six innings.

I suspect we'll see him tonight by the third inning. And I hope it's not too late by then.

[smg58]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets ask for two innings apiece from Perez, Trachsel, and Oliver. Certainly the leash is very tight. I don't see a good reason to start Perez -- it's short rest, and if the Mets didn't score 12 on Sunday we'd be talking about how poorly he pitched, not how well. On the other hand, I'm guessing Willie doesn't want Perez in for long, and that he'd be happy with once through the lineup without a run scored. We don't need six from one guy.

Right or wrong, Willie's rep as a manager is likely to be made or unmade tonight. Every move will be second-guessed if it backfires, and he'll be hailed as a genius if things work out. To be fair, none of his options look really good right now, and I hope people remember that.

[Guest cooby]

Trachsel was warming up last night...

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

My hunch is that tonight's game is one they'll be talking about for years to come. (I'd recommend you tape or TiVo it in case it turns out well and you want to save it for posterity.)

Both teams have their backs to the walls, so both will be in desperation mode. I think the lead will change hands a few times, and there will be some unique decisions made. Some will work and some won't. The Game 7 Rehash thread should be an interesting one.

Of course, it may go like 1988 NLCS Game 7. One team jumps to an early lead and takes the other team out of the game. But my guess is that it's going to be a real battle.

[HahnSolo]

Perez is getting a really big benefit of the doubt to let him go on 3 days rest after his last outing...the kind of benefit of the doubt Trax would never get from Willie. I think that's unfair...and short-sighted on his part. Wasn't it Willie, just a week and a half ago, who went all out with his bullpen to win a game 3 in LA so that he wouldn't have to throw Perez out there in game 4?

I said it in another thread, and I'll repeat it here: all year long Willie has been saying the same thing: "these are my guys, this is the way we do things." Bringing a 3-13 starter back on 3 days rest when your 15-game winner is on full rest goes against that.

and to the point that Trax saps the energy out of the Home Field advantage...he--and the crowd--were just fine before a packed house at Shea when they clinched the NL East.

[Guest sharpie]

I think Trachsel taking himself out of Game 3 rankles Willie. I don't really see why starting a lefty, however, makes the most sense for the Cards as their lineup is righty heavy. I woulda started Trachsel but I think we've seen the last of him as a Met and I wouldn't be too surprised to see him left offa the WS roster if we get there.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

="sharpie"]I think we've seen the last of him as a Met and I wouldn't be too surprised to see him left offa the WS roster if we get there.

Me neither. I think the conventional wisdom is that Orlando Hernandez would replace Trachsel. I'm not so sure that's the best idea. I'd rather see him replace Perez. But of course, if the Mets do have a World Series roster, then Perez might very well earn his spot on it tonight.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Listen, the raine tooketh, and the rain gaveth us back, but I think we all learned our lesson to carry five starters.

[Guest 86-Dreamer]

HahnSolo wrote: Perez is getting a really big benefit of the doubt to let him go on 3 days rest after his last outing...the kind of benefit of the doubt Trax would never get from Willie. I think that's unfair...and short-sighted on his part. Wasn't it Willie, just a week and a half ago, who went all out with his bullpen to win a game 3 in LA so that he wouldn't have to throw Perez out there in game 4? I said it in another thread, and I'll repeat it here: all year long Willie has been saying the same thing: "these are my guys, this is the way we do things." Bringing a 3-13 starter back on 3 days rest when your 15-game winner is on full rest goes against that. and to the point that Trax saps the energy out of the Home Field advantage...he--and the crowd--were just fine before a packed house at Shea when they clinched the NL East.

I voted Trachsel for the reasons you state. But if Willie sees something in Trachsel - physically or mentally - that tells him that he is not up to the task, then I trust him. He has proven that he knows his players well.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

="Edgy DC"]Listen, the raine tooketh, and the rain gaveth us back, but I think we all learned our lesson to carry five starters.

Excellent point.

So who would you bump to make room for Orlando Hernandez?

Anderson Hernandez would be a good pick.

I'm also thinking I'd like to get DiFelice on the roster. It would make Ramon Castro available as a pinch-hitter. The Mets bench has been pretty thin.

[Guest Iubitul]

If game 7 is an indication of what Willie thinks of Trachsel, I wouldn't be surprised to see Trachsel dropped.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Anderson Hernandez would be a great pick.

If the Mets feel Trachsel can't answer the bell, then Dave Williams is also available to be added.

But...it's a decision for after today. A lot depends on the relative health of Trachsel and Cliff Floyd. And I know, I'm beating the Milledge drum too much, as well as over-specializing, but he might be worth carrying simply because he's a better bet to get on base against Kenny Rogers than Michael Tucker.

And that may be the first post-season roster choice ever made to counter the Kenny Rogers effect.

Has Milledge gone home?

[HahnSolo]

I thought I heard on FAN that Milledge has been working out in Port St. Lucie. If true, it lends credibility to the idea that he'd be activated for a World Series (if necessary).

[Centerfield]

I think starting Oliver Perez is a big mistake. Not only is he susceptible to walks, he's susceptible to the long ball. Going down 2 or 3 runs early may be too much tonight.

As much as I don't like him, I think Trachsel is your best option tonight, on a short leash with Darren Oliver warm and ready. Next out of the pen should be Tom Glavine.

[Gwreck]

HahnSolo wrote: I thought I heard on FAN that Milledge has been working out in Port St. Lucie. If true, it lends credibility to the idea that he'd be activated for a World Series (if necessary).

He's part of a group of players who are being kept ready there in case of injury. Also in St. Lucie are Dave Williams, Brian Bannister, and Heath Bell.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I've got a problem with short leashes in a game seven --- not with their use, but with the way they're exercised by managers.

A guy gets in trouble.and a manager is programmed that their long man/their swing man/their erstwhile starter is the guy they turn to earliest.

"No, no, no," say I. Yes, if your starter gets in trouble, you'll certainly need an alternative guy with a starter-type durability to get you to the seventh or so, but be willing to first send out a short guy to put out the fire at hand. So if you want to pull the starter with two on and one out in the second or third inning, first let a Mota, a Bradford, a Feliciano put that fire out, and maybe throw another inning if he's been economical and the matchups work out, and then turn to your long man.

Treat that second- or third-inning crisis like you'd otherwise treat a sixth- or seventh-inning crisis. It's game seven.

[Gwreck]

I believe the "need a few innings of really good relief" guy tonight is Aaron Heilman. He's barely (2.1 innings) pitched this series and is fairly well rested. I bet he could give 3 innings if necessary.

[smg58]

86-Dreamer wrote: I voted Trachsel for the reasons you state. But if Willie sees something in Trachsel - physically or mentally - that tells him that he is not up to the task, then I trust him. He has proven that he knows his players well.

Excellent point. I also voted for Trachsel, but Randolph doesn't like to make hasty changes to his lineup or rotation, and if he does change something he has his reasons. We ultimately have to trust Willie's instincts on this one.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Edgy DC wrote: Treat that second- or third-inning crisis like you'd otherwise treat a sixth- or seventh-inning crisis. It's game seven.

I've been thinking that very same thing.

Too many times, managers get too stuck on the number of the inning.

[Guest 86-Dreamer]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: ="Edgy DC"]Treat that second- or third-inning crisis like you'd otherwise treat a sixth- or seventh-inning crisis. It's game seven. I've been thinking that very same thing. Too many times, managers get too stuck on the number of the inning.

Willie's choice of Mota last night to face the LH Duncan gives me a lot of CAHNfidence that he will go against convential wisdom when calling on the pen.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I'm of course glad we got to Game 7 for many reasons but one was just to see how a team that's essentially without 3 of its regular starters and with the other 2 having pitched in the prior two nights would go about it.

This has been a fascinating time for the Mets.

My thoughts on who should start are said by 86 above: I'd have picked Trax but the fact he's not being selected by Willie despite his being the most rested and most experienced suggests something is going on behind the scenes to have eroded a LOT of confidence, even for a so-so performance.

That said, Perez IMO is clearly a better choice to start than Oliver, if only because he's a starter, Oliver other than a credible mop-up man has not been particularly strong or experienced in any games the Mets have won this year; and if talent were bullets, Perez would kill a lot more people than Oliver.

If the over-under on pitchers used by the Mets in this game is 5 I'm taking the over. What can stop that and make us all breathe a lot easier is a strong offense and tight tight tight tight defense.

Can't wait.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I really do think that, win or lose, tonight's game is going to be one for the ages.

I just hope it doesn't go 16 innings!

[Centerfield]

Johnny Dickshot wrote: What can stop that and make us all breathe a lot easier is a strong offense and tight tight tight tight defense. Can't wait.

I'm pretty much resigned to the fact that I am not going to feel clam all night.

[Theoldmole]

I went with Perez, but I changed my mind. Trachsel.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Oops, I thought for a minute there I thought I was Zvon.

I agree, CF. Not too much clamminess in the forecast.

[MFS62]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Not too much clamminess in the forecast.

I disagree. I bet more than one tush will be tighter than a clam tonight.
The APPFs will be up in the 9.7 range.

Later

[Guest sharpie]

What I'd like to see: 3 innings for Perez, 3 for Oliver, 2 for Heilman, 1 for Wagner. What I think we'll see: something other than that.

[MFS62]

I'd like to see 9 from Perez, in a Met win laugher. I'm getting too old for another nail biter.
But, like Sharpie, I think we'll see something other than that.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

The matchups will be fascinating. The Mets have the better hitting, but the Cardinals have the better hitting depth. The Cards have the better pitching, but the Mets have the better pitching depth.