lineup optimization

[Vic Sage]

Playoff pulse: Balanced Mets creating a buzz

By Jeff Passan, Yahoo! Sports
September 25, 2006

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-pulse092506&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

[here's a part of his column where he talks about lineup optimization]

NUMBER CRUNCHING

Heard from Cyril Morong, who, by analyzing years of data, constructed a formula how to put together an optimal lineup. He sent along an updated link to his research, and the comment section at the bottom is particularly interesting.

Using Ken Arneson's program, here is a look at the current lineups of National League contenders, their ideal lineups and how the projected run total from the best of 362,800 possible lineups compares to the actual one.

New York Mets
Projected lineup
1) Jose Reyes
2) Paul Lo Duca
3) Carlos Beltran
4) Carlos Delgado
5) David Wright
6) Cliff Floyd
7) Shawn Green
8) Jose Valentin
9) Pedro Martinez

Best lineup
1) Paul Lo Duca
2) Carlos Beltran
3) Jose Reyes
4) David Wright
5) Carlos Delgado
6) Cliff Floyd
7) Shawn Green
8) Jose Valentin
9) Pedro Martinez

Projected lineup runs per game: 5.124
Best lineup runs per game: 5.183
Real runs per game: 5.161

[seawolf17]

Yet another reason why Jose Reyes should be the NL MVP.

[Guest Hillbilly]

Those lineups are remarkably similar.

[metsmarathon]

wow. jose reyes, three-hitter. what sal must think...

[Guest Edgy DC]

Jim Tracy wasn't afraid to bat Lo Duca leadoff.

I don't really have faith that these things would tend to work out in practice like the computer model says they would.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Since hundreths of runs don't count, and we won't play enough playoff games to add all those hundreths together and make an actual run, I'm just as happy with the way things are, especially since the "optimal" lineup has all them lefties piled up.

[Frayed Knot]

]Best lineup runs per game: 5.183 Real runs per game: 5.161

That's over 3.5 runs per year - we mighta even got an extra win!!!!
Willie's such a fuckin idiot.