Closed-Book Gut-Check Fantasy Challenge Trade Poll

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Suppose you're a fantasy GM and your starting 8 happen to be the Braves' regular starting 8. Another fantasy GM calls, this guy's starting 8 are all the current starting 8 of the Phillies, and he offers you an 8-for-8 straight-up swap.

WITHOUT checking current stats, just give me your gut reaction: Do you do it?

For the record your opposing GM is offering:
C Leiberthal for McCann
1B Howard for LaRoche
2B Utley for Giles
SS Rollins for Renteria
3B Bell for Chipper
LF Burrell for Langerhans
CF Rowland for A. Jones
RF Abreu for Francoeur

YES or NO -- no hedging -- assume salaries & contracts & stuff are similar. Pretend you have identical pitching staffs and play in similar parks and that your teams are more or less, at the time of this deal, fairly close in the standings. Assume your main goal is to win your league this year. Do ya do it?

[Elster88]

Without checking stats, heck no. Atlanta looks better.

[metirish]

My first reaction is NO, mainly becasue of A Jones, hard to get fair value for him.

[Elster88]

Never mind.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Oops, my bad. I voted "NO" because I misread and thought I was the Phillies GM.

If I'm the Atlanta GM, I'd hate to lose the Joneses, but the Philadelphia lineup gives you more baskets to keep your eggs in.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Atlanta seems to have more of a future, despite the Jonesies still being their best hitters. And Abreu and Burrell are just so damn enigmatic.

[Guest Rotblatt]

I voted yes. Out of all the youngsters involved, I think Howard's the most likely to be a superstar. The Braves have several young players whom I think will be competent but not outstanding--Francoeur & Langerhans & McCann.

Larry's good but getting old. Andruw's great and still relatively young but I think Abreu matches him.

Pretty close for me, but I go with the Phillies.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

It's a "this year" deal, though. According to Johnny's parameters, future means nothing.

[Frayed Knot]

For a one-year deal I'd dump my Atlanta stock for Philly stock.
You'd lose with both Jones swaps and probably the catcher but stand a good chance at winning or breaking even on the other 5.

I'll take Utley over Giles, Howard way big over LaRoche, Abreu over Francoeur (particularly since it's fantasy), Rollins over Renteria, and Burrell over (isles of) Langerhans.

And I like the Philly lineup even more if it's a future thing in addition to just this year.

[Elster88]

]I'll take Utley over Giles

No way.

[Frayed Knot]

Way!

I like Utley a whole bunch.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: It's a "this year" deal, though. According to Johnny's parameters, future means nothing.

Oh.

Well, I'd probably still pick the Phillies's lineup. From the gut:

Abreu = Andruw
Howard > Larry
Burrell >> Francoeur
Rollins =? Renteria (tough call here without looking at stats. Rollins with the edge defensively & speedwise, and he's been pretty consistent in terms of OPS. Renteria up and down, coming off a few mediocre years. I'll call it a push, I suppose, but this might be a win for Atlanta.)
Utley > Giles
Rowland = Langerhans
Liberthal < McCann
Bell << LaRoche

From the gut, Phillies win for this year by a score of 4.5 to 3.5.

[nymr83]

Elster88 wrote: ]I'll take Utley over Giles No way.

Utley is the better fantasy player, i don't even think its close.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I wasn't talking fantasy stats, but a fantasy situation... just to be clear.

My instinct is to trade for the Phillies. I think they're the better overall offensive team.

[MFS62]

When it comes to damage they do against the Mets, the Giles/ Utley debate is a matter of pick-your-poison.

Later

[metsmarathon]

my reading comprehension abilities slipped, and i said yes when i thought it meant keeping the atlanta lineup (not sure why i thought yes meant that, but go with me here...)

the more i though t about it, i started thinking more about rowand, utley and howard, and less about jones and jones. and now, i concur with my brainfart, and indeed i would trade atlanta's lineup for philly's.

i wonder which pitching staff i'd use...

[Guest Edgy DC]

I thought I'd get to keep the lineup beyond this year, so I voted Atlanta.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Thanks for playing.

I've looked up the stats and so far, Philly has scored 2 more runs in the same # of games.

They also have an edge, though slight, in Team BA (262/252); OBP (334/319); SLG (426/419), but are behind considerably in BA w/RISP (275/247).

Philly I think is the more dangerous O and, in a longwinded point I'm sure you couldn't see coming, a better assignment for Pedro than Maine.

[metirish]

Rotblatt wrote...

]Abreu = Andruw

My gut reaction to that is no way...

[nymr83]

I definetaly thought you were talking about fantay baseball. disregard my earlier comments if you're not.

[Elster88]

Johnny Dickshot wrote: Thanks for playing. I've looked up the stats and so far, Philly has scored 2 more runs in the same # of games. They also have an edge, though slight, in Team BA (262/252); OBP (334/319); SLG (426/419), but are behind considerably in BA w/RISP (275/247). Philly I think is the more dangerous O and, in a longwinded point I'm sure you couldn't see coming, a better assignment for Pedro than Maine.

It's very close, regardless of our rotation. In our SOS threads, Philly probably deserves more credit than they are being given. Good thread.

[Vic Sage]

On first blush, i'd take Philly.
After thinking about it, i'd break it down this way:

C Leiberthal for McCann - McCann (AT)
1B Howard for LaRoche - Howard (PH)
2B Utley for Giles - Utley (PH)
SS Rollins for Renteria - even
3B Bell for Chipper - Chipper (AT)
LF Burrell for Langerhans - Burrell (PH)
CF Rowland for A. Jones - Jones (AT)
RF Abreu for Francoeur - Abreu (PH)

A slight edge to Philly, 4-3-1

If I weight the selections:

C Leiberthal for McCann - McCann 10 / Leiberthal 8
1B Howard for LaRoche - Howard 10 / LaRoche 7
2B Utley for Giles - Utley 10 / Giles 8
SS Rollins for Renteria - Rollins 10 / Renteria 10
3B Bell for Chipper - Chipper 10 / Bell 6
LF Burrell for Langerhans - Burrell 10 / Langerhans 7
CF Rowland for A. Jones - Jones 10 / Rowand 8
RF Abreu for Francoeur - Abreu 10 / Francouer 7

Then, its Phi = 72, Atl = 67
Still pretty close, but i still take Philly.

Of all the players on either side, Utley and Howard have the most potential upside going forward, and Rollins, Burrell and Abreu are all still in their prime. The only player i'd take from Atlanta is A. Jones, and i think McCann will be a solid offensive catcher. Chipper and Giles are oft-injured and in decline.

[Guest Edgy DC]

That Abreu sure got down the line faster than Andruw Jones has in years.

[Zvon]

I wouldnt for one reason and one reason only-
Andruw Jones