Jose Reyes Deathwatch

[Guest Edgy DC]

With two hits and two walks (compared to one walk for the rest of the team) and three runs in five plate appearances, in a game of immense hugeness, I think some cautious enthusiasm about Jose Reyes is called for.

[Willets Point]

You were kidding about Ricky, right?

[Elster88]

Let's see some stats.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Willets Point wrote: You were kidding about Ricky, right?

He was supposed to return as an instructor.

="Elster88"]Let's see some stats.

Sure. Can I make some up?

[Elster88]

Nah, I can do it.

EDIT: .251 AVG/.326 OBP/.413 SLG//.739 OPS

29 BB, (projected 74.57)

[Guest Edgy DC]

Four more hits today, including a triple and a caught stealing, and he's up to .761.

[Theoldmole]

He's the starting shortstop on a team that's running away with the NL East.

[Elster88]

Elster88 wrote: .251 AVG/.326 OBP/.413 SLG//.739 OPS 29 BB, (projected 74.57)

Three games later:
.267 AVG/.337 OBP/.439 SLG//.776 OPS

29 BB, (projected 71.1818)

[Elster88]

Where can a young lad find information on league average stats? I'd like to see what the average hitter's OBP is. I'd also like to see what the average leadoff hitter's OBP is.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I can't find anyone who does the league-wide bottom line. Always a frustration.

[metsmarathon]

easiest math is to do the team-by-team, and average. or pick the median, for even quicker math. sure, it'll be off by a point or two, but not enough to throw off a perception, i don't think.

[Elster88]

Before the 6/19 game opening the Red series:

.269/.336/.439//.775

29 BB (pace for 69 BB)

[Guest Rotblatt]

]Where can a young lad find information on league average stats?

Baseball Prospectus. You have to pay for their stats page (which also gets you their articles, PECOTA, etc.), but, IMO, it's totally worth it. They have some really interesting articles and their stats are beyond compare.

Anywho, here's the dealeo:

NL average: .263 AVG / .333 OBP / .425 SLG / .162 ISO / 0.0869 BB Rate / 1.96 SO/BB Rate / 0.0102 ROE Rate / 0.1703 SO Rate / 72.2 SB% / 13.0 DP%

I wasn't sure what "ROE Rate" was, so I looked it up: it's Reached on Error.

Here's Jose's line. He's above league average in everything, which is pretty amazing. Averages at or over his 90th percentile PECOTA projections in bold.

.272 AVG / .338 OBP / .443 SLG / .171 ISO / 0.0882 BB Rate / 0.1125 SO/BB / 0.0122 ROE Rate / 0.1125 SO Rate / 81.1 SB% / 9.1 DP%

By the way, Jose has already bettered his 50th % PECOTA walk prediction in under half the season. If he maintains his current OBP & SLG rates, he'll have exceeded his 75th % predictions, despite carrying a far lower AVG in those percentiles.

PECOTA, even in the 90th percentile, didn't think Jose could do better than 39 walks, which (knock on wood) seems like a piece of cake for Reyes now. He's also already matched the 50th % HR total.

For shits & giggles:

90th percentile
.332 AVG/.373 OBP/.496 SLG/.869 OPS, 10 HR, 70 SB, 24 CS, 39 BB, 66 K

PECOTA predicted that his value would be mostly tied up in his AVG. With Jose actually drawing walks, it's throwing their whole projection system out of whack. If Jose's BABIP gets back to normal levels (i.e., Jose stops getting unlucky, which seems to be happening) and maintain his other rates, we could see Jose really take off.

[Elster88]

Thanks Rotblatt.

If .333 is the league average, I'd say that is a good goal for Reyes for this year.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Reyes is fourth in the league in OPS among shortstops. I show them below, with their stolen-base numbers in parentheses, as those can narrow or widen some of the gaps.

1 Bill Hall.910 (2-4)
2 Edgar Renteria.863 (6-8)
3 Omar Vizquel .818 (7-11)
4 Jose Reyes .781 (30-37)
5 Felipe Lopez .769 (20-26)
6 David Eckstein .761 (5-8)
7 Hanley Ramirez .747 (20-24)
8 Jimmy Rollins .731 (15-18)
9 Jack Wilson .721 (2-3)
10 Ronny Cedeno .706 (5-10)
11 Khalil Greene .705 (5-6)
12 Craig Counsell .704 (9-14)
13 Rafael Furcal .664 (16-22)
14 Royce Clayton .640 (3-6)
15 Adam Everett .597 (2-3)
16 Clint Barmes .546 (3-5)

He's also second in Zone Rating.

Adam Everett, .910
Jose Reyes, .878
David Eckstein, .864
Omar Vizquel, .863
Khalil Greene, .855
Ronny Cedeno, .845
Craig Counsell, .844
Clint Barmes, .842
Royce Clayton, .831
Jimmy Rollins, .830
Jack Wilson, .826
Hanley Ramirez, .809
Rafael Furcal, .799
Edgar Renteria, .798
Felipe Lopez, .794

He may not necessarily be the ideal choice as the All Star at short, but he's a perfectly good one.

[RealityChuck]

Tom Verdacci makes a case that, with Reyes, they're looking at the wrong statistics and he is one of the best leadoff men in baseball:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/tom_verducci/06/20/reyes/index.html

[Guest Hillbilly]

RealityChuck wrote: Tom Verdacci makes a case that, with Reyes, they're looking at the wrong statistics and he is one of the best leadoff men in baseball: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/tom_verducci/06/20/reyes/index.html

Good read.

[Elster88]

The problem with Verducci's argument is we don't really know if Reyes scores so much because he is so fast or because we have some thumpers behind him in the order.

I think it's more about his speed, and not Belgadight, but I don't know of a statistical way to prove it.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Soriano suddenly has an isolated OBP of .065. You don't have to look that hard to see Reyes improving in front of our eyes.

[Elster88]

I'm not looking for evidence that he is improving right before our eyes.

I'm looking for evidence that he is the best leadoff man in baseball, as Verducci theorized.

[Guest Edgy DC]

He's not theorizing that. He asks whether Reyes is tops in the National League, and concludes that he's not, but that he's still move valuable relative to other leadoff men than a strict ranking of on-base percentages would indicate. The closest he comes to an actual thesis is in the last paragraph.

For now, I'm not ready to concede that Reyes is better as a leadoff hitter than a red-hot Soriano (another mold-breaking No. 1 guy).

No one in the league is having a better season from there, even if Reyes is doing so in a most unconventional manner. Reyes is on pace to score 139 runs with an overall .338 OBP. The last player to score that many runs with an OBP that low was Tom Poorman in 1887. So maybe we're looking at a once-every-119-years exception.

In any case, Minaya and the rest of Mets country ought not be too worried about Reyes' OBP.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Verducci says "Call off the deathwatch!"

[Elster88]

Edgy DC wrote: He's not theorizing that.

Good god. Would you have been happier if I said hypothesized?

Call off the language police! I submit!!!

[Guest Rotblatt]

Nice article. I like it when peeps try to use stats to prove the theories of old skoolers, especially when they're fairly intelligent about it.

SC=0.

I don't think there's any doubt that Soriano's more valuable offensively than Reyes--for now. If Reyes can get his average up to around .300 and maintain the same K & BB stats--and the same power--it'll be more of a contest. His line would look something like:

.300 AVG / .361 OBP / .471 SLG / .832 OPS, 76 SB

If he caught fire over the rest of the year and matched his 90th percentile PECTOA AVG (while maintaining the rest of his rate stats) it would be:

.332 AVG / .390 OBP / .503 SLG / .893 OPS, 76 SB

Soriano:

.285 AVG / .350 OBP / .577 SLG / .927 OPS, 41 SB

Ah, rampant speculation. Gotta love it!

[Guest Edgy DC]

]Call off the language police! I submit!!!

Don't be so cranky with your four exclamations. Submit to what?

[Elster88]

I'm not cranky. I was teasing. Call off the punctuation police.

Seriously though, next time I'll use less exclamations. My apologies (SC = zero)

[Guest Edgy DC]

Called off, just as they were about to bust you for the lower-case g in "god."

[Guest cleonjones11]

Is Jose Reyes a shortstop for a championship team? A resounding yes hands down...

[Benjamin Grimm]

First place team, yes.

Championship team, no.

Not yet, anyway.

[Guest cleonjones11]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: First place team, yes. Championship team, no. Not yet, anyway.

I respectfully disagree....thats what makes the world go round. Your right We're in FIRST place BOOYAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!