Willie: Brainless and Testicularly-Challenged (2006)

[Guest Rotblatt]

Sure, it's a little early to start dumping on your manager, but the early bird gets the worm and all. Thanks for the inspiration & title, Sal!

Anyway, I'm worried about Willie's pending choices concerning the following:

1. Bullpen. We have an awful lot of "experienced" pitchers whom I'm worried Willie will go to instead of guys like Bell & Padilla. Wagner, Sanchez, Bradford, Julio & Iriki seem likely to make the team, as is at least one of our lefties, meaning two of Bell, Padilla & Schmoll will be sent to AAA. I'd much rather see Bell & Padilla in the pen than Julio & a crappy lefty--and maybe instead of Iriki too, but I'm withholding judgement for the time being.

2. Bullpen management. I'm guessing that whichever of Bell, Padilla & Schmoll make the team probably won't see much time, at least initially. Willie will probably give Bradford, Julio & Iriki a ton of rope to hang themselves with. On the other hand, giving the veterans a shot first might reveal another Robo 2005, but I kinda doubt lightning will strike twice.

3. Batting order. I know, I know, it's not a huge deal statistically, but I still get twitchy when I hear things like "LoDuca would be a good #2 hitter." Let's put our best hitters at the top of the order, meaning that LoDuca gets to bat AFTER Delgado, Wright, Floyd, & Beltran--not before. I also loathe the idea of keeping Beltran at #3, and I'd really like Reyes to prove he belongs at the top of the order before locking him in there. I suppose we don't have any better options now that Cameron's gone, but I hope Willie's willing to get creative & drop Reyes in the order if/when he starts struggling.

4. Second Base. Cairo's gone, which is a Good Thing, but I'm still nervous that Willie will fall in love with one of our srub 2B options and play him against all reason. I don't know the answer, but I want Willie to be flexibile & creative with the problem, and I really, really doubt he will be.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

There's an argument for allowing vets to hang themselves. If you cut them all in March, or don't invite them in the first place, as most smartypants armchair analysts seem to suggest, if/when the youngsters get cuffed around you've limited your alternatives to them and perhaps, wasted options in the event they need additional seasoning.

I also don't think this particular complaint is on WWSB, or even unique to the Mets/Omar. All teams in one way or another have more options for their bullpens than come North every year, and I'd suggest the majority would prefer to let the guys they can't stash away in the minors to get the first crack simply for efficiency's sake.

[metirish]

Julio will make the team , I really don't know much of anything about Schmoll or Iriki, I also would hope Bell and Padilla get a decent chance to make the team, no reason to believe they won't, Padilla is the coolest cat on the team, that must count for something.

[smg58]

I hope Royce Ring gets the chance, too. And I have no idea where or when Alay Soler will fit in. I'll refrain from passing judgement on Willie's handling of the situation until April, when I've seen how the situation pans out.

[Elster88]

I will refrain from passing judgement until I see how long it takes Julio to get sent to AAA. Anytime after mid-April is unacceptable.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I also see Julio as an impending disaster. But if he has a decent April, I won't be arguing for him to be sent to Norfolk.

[Guest heep]

Now that Benson is gone, does anyone have an accurate count on the 2006 salaries and what the payroll will be?

[seawolf17]

Try Hardball Dollars.

Looks like $97.99 million right now for '06, down from $109.33 million in '05.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I'm not arguing the guy is a superstar, but unless Julio is/was hurt, I don't see how he's necessarily a disaster waiting to happen. He averaged a K per inning every year till last year when he seemed to get too much bat -- and in good hitting parks of the AL East.

And he's younger than Heath Bell.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

My biggest question is who's the sixth starting pitcher on the depth chart? With Seo gone, and Heilman presumably promoted, who's left? If Pedro or Glavine have to miss a few starts, who takes their place? The only name that comes to mind right now is John Maine.

I really wish that had at least either Seo or Benson. They don't seem to have any rotation depth anymore.

Am I forgetting somebody?

[Guest sharpie]

Isn't Soler really a starting pitcher?

[metirish]

]Am I forgetting somebody?

The Japanese guy can spot start.

[Guest KC]

Is it the general consensus among the WWSB group that he learned nothing
from his first year managing and that even with a potentially much better lineup
that his team will always be doomed from the onset?

I mean jeez, he's a young second year manager - and I doubt he's as ignorant
(baseball wise) as some people here and other places make him out to be.

[Guest Edgy DC]

It's certainly not set, but I thnk Iriki presumptively opens the season as the sixth starter, as it appears now.

I'm looking at our starting current pitcher depth chart this way.

Martinez
Glavine
Trachsel
Zambrano
Heilman

Iriki
Maine
Bannister
Soler
Oliver
Padilla
Junge
Lindstrom
Scobie
Musser
Pelfrey
Humber

I think we'll be alright.

[Guest Rotblatt]

]Is it the general consensus among the WWSB group that he learned nothing from his first year managing and that even with a potentially much better lineup that his team will always be doomed from the onset?

I can't speak for everyone, but for myself, I do WORRY that he hasn't learned anything--or at least, much. However, I certainly don't think we're doomed from the onset--as a matter of fact, I think we'll probably make the playoffs this year. I just think it might be in spite of Willie rather than because of him.

]I mean jeez, he's a young second year manager - and I doubt he's as ignorant (baseball wise) as some people here and other places make him out to be.

I gave him the benefit of the doubt for a while last year, and then got really, really pissy with him when he didn't seem to change at all. This year, I'm hoping the opposite happens--I treat him with suspicion from day 1, and he proves me wrong over the course of the season.

Ultimately, I think that Omar's moves have made me even more nervous of Willie than I would have been. Willie had finally come around on Seo, Heilman & Jacobs and had finally demoted Cairo & Zambrano. Now Seo & Jake are gone, Zambrano's penciled in as our #4 guy, and after our closer & setup guy, our pen is littered with mediocrity.

Essentially, Willie has a lot of new people to deal with and I'm worried he'll take another agonizing 5 months to figure out a decent configuration.

[Guest KC]

Fair enough, I'm just playing mid February testicularly-challenged advocate
for a spell.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Does anyone expecting Julio to be an unmitigated disaster care to defend that position?

[Guest Edgy DC]

I don't know that any of us had a better option at second come mid-summer. Yeah, I would have gotten Matsui back in there as soon as he was able, but there was little in the way of options. I know there is hope that Woodward wouldward've been the man, but that's rather wishful thinking (as he's virtually the only one who didn't fail). I think Randolph has proven he has faith in in Woodie.

]...and after our closer & setup guy, our pen is littered with mediocrity.

Doesn't that describe virtually every pen, or actually most of the better pens? I agree that I'd like to see more talent on the left side, but the depth shouldn't be a particularly worry. If we're convinced that Randolph will stay with a veteran failure too long, I don't think there's any team's bullpen that would make that concern go away. I guess a team that has a GM setting up a virtually vet-free bullpen, but that roster would likely have it's own perils.

[MFS62]

Aside from his decisions about the bullpen, I think we'll get a clue about his willingness to change/ learn when he starts fielding his regular season lineup towards the end of Spring Training. Last year he seemed set on the idea of alternating lefty and righty batters through the batting order.

If Reyes(S) is the leadoff batter, who follows him? Beltran(S) is probably a better (OBP-wise) choice than anyone else as a #2 hitter. And Wright® looks like the best #3 hitter, with Delgado(L) following him. No problem with that. But the test will be who follows Delgado.
The next best hitter is probably Floyd(L). Will Willie force a righty (Diaz?) into that spot, with Floyd(L) and LoDuca® and the second baseman (?)to follow? Will he put LoDuca in the #2 hole? Or will he change what he did last year and have Floyd follow Delgado?

Should be interesting.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

If he's still in the mix, Mr. Koo has a history of starting as welll.

[nymr83]

Johnny Dickshot wrote: Does anyone expecting Julio to be an unmitigated disaster care to defend that position?

his 5.90 ERA makes that a pretty easy sell.

[metirish]

Rick Peterson was on the radio last week and mentioned that he has spoken to Julio and that they have identified some things to work on, based on his career numbers he will need it, 2002 was a good year though...


http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6709/career;_ylt=AuvDw79Te5X1VUaKsor11NiFCLcF

[Willets Point]

metirish wrote: Rick Peterson was on the radio last week and mentioned that he has spoken to Julio and that they have identified some things to work on, based on his career numbers he will need it, 2002 was a good year though... http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6709/career;_ylt=AuvDw79Te5X1VUaKsor11NiFCLcF

Did it take 10 minutes?

[Elster88]

It still cracks me up when I hear on the radio "If he can regain his form from 2002". I have no scientific proof of this, but my contention is that a player tends to stay at the level displayed in the previous three seasons, rather than the one before that.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

One of my complaints about Willie's testosterone-level has to do with his ability to recognize and fix a problem regardless of salary involved. Obviously, Matsui and Piazza got me started on this, but let's leave those aside to address a hypothetical because I don't want to fan old flames just now. Say Pedro gets off to a terrible start--gets through the lineup okay first time around, but consistently runs out of gas around the 3rd inning. All Spring Training, this goes on and on, and into the season.

The other 4 starters (Glavine, Trax, Heilman, and Zambrano) are performing well, and Soler has been doing very well in a starting role in ST and in his first few starts at AAA). Soler gets promoted to MLB, does very well in a start or two at this level, while Pedro keeps gettting roughed up the second time through the lineup.

The obvious solution is to take Pedro out of rotation and put Soler in. This move might not take too much brains after a while, but it definitely will take some balls to make that call.

To my mind, I'd pull the trigger on that move around the middle of April. Some of you would delay longer, and risk taking more hits (literally) on Pedro's record, giving him longer to play his way off the rotation. May, maybe you'd stick with Pedro until June.

I maintain that Willie would literally never make that move until Pedro publicly requested a demotion. That's where I fault him him for testosterone-deprivation. He will play big-salary over big-talent every time.

Does anyone disagree with my assessment of that hypothetical situation?

[nymr83]

the middle of April is way too soon, you'd really consider it after 3 or 4 bad starts?

[Frayed Knot]

Agree with an assessment that after a few poor starts the decision should be made that that stint signals the end of productive pitching and should automatically trump the successes of the previous 14 years? ... Ummm, No.

[seawolf17]

If Pedro is that bad... I mean he's four starts in, and he's pitched 13 total innings... then they'll put him on the DL or something. They're not going to pull him out of the rotation. He's Pedro Freaking Martinez, not Scott Erickson.

[Guest sharpie]

Right. If Zambrano or Heilman or Trachsel begin that bad then that's a different story. Glavine probably gets a little more rope, Pedro a lot more rope.

[Guest Rotblatt]

]Doesn't that describe virtually every pen, or actually most of the better pens?

Yeah, pretty much, but IMO, we had a much better situation before Omar started tinkering. I'd rather have Wagner & Heilman leading the pen and Petey, Glavine, Benson, Seo & Trachsel starting.

Heilman & Wagner beats Sanchez & Wagner any day of the week, if you ask me. And I think Benson & Seo beat out Zambrano & Heilman pretty easily too..

Bradford, Zambrano, Bell & Padilla might be a mediocre back half of the pen, but the front end is better and I like the rotation more too.

Bret, as for your hypothetical, I think my patience for Willie's patience would be pretty darn high. On the other hand, I'd probably call for Willie to put Petey on the DL sometime in April . . .