Benson -- Julio Redux?

[Frayed Knot]

WFAN keeps running updates that "according to reports" the Mets and Orioles "are in serious discussions" for some new version of a Kris Benson for Jorge Julio swap.

They don't, however, mention anything as to the source of those "reports": are these coming out of Baltimore? ... from newspapers? ... via the 'IFPSA'?

[seawolf17]

Yeah! Let's add more middle relievers! Maybe we can have an entire team of middle relievers, and every game, Willie can manage an inning at a time!

[Frayed Knot]

OK so the source is apparently David Lennon & Jon Heyman at Newsday - although I have no idea why WFAN seems reluctant to say that.

The Newsday story mentions that the Mets "are feeling optimistic" that Benson would go to Bal'mer "most likely" for Julio in a deal that would "include a prospect".

This would presumably open up a startrs spot for Heliman, leaving ... ummm, who exactly, Brian Bannister? as the 6th man.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

That "prospect" better be a good one, and he'd better be going from Baltimore to New York.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Remind me. That 5.90 ERA Julio had last year. He was using his good arm then, right? He wasn't throwng with his left arm just to have fun, or to pay tribute to Mazzilli after he was fired or anything?

[Guest Edgy DC]

I checked just now with the National Anna Benson Crisis Alert Center. They told me they're on code yellow and reviewing the chatter regularly, ready to go to orange immediately if necessary. They're not sure if she's woken up yet.

[MFS62]

Edgy DC wrote: I checked just now with the National Anna Benson Crisis Alert Center. They told me they're on code yellow and reviewing the chatter regularly, ready to go to orange immediately if necessary. They're not sure if she's woken up yet.

Mind if I check in on her to see if she's still sleeping?

Later

[nymr83]

this trade was bad when we still had Seo, now its downright idiotic

[MFS62]

This gets weirder:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

When you net it out, the Mets would be getting an expensive one year rental of a declining-skills, expensive, starter and a reliever with an ERA over 5 for Heilmann, Benson AND Diaz. This weakens the team at starter, bullpen(depending on where you slot Heilmann), and outfield. That prospect had better be the second coming of Rogers Hornsby or this is insane.

Later

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

See why this organization scares me? You folks have to seriously consider nutty stuff like this. With another organization, you'd just be saying, "Doesn't make sense. There must be something wrong about this rumor." With the Mets, you look at their track record and go, "Omigod, are they THIS stupid? Maybe..." and it messes up your morning worrying about it, even if it's not true.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

To me this only makes sense if it's part and parcel of a larger scheme involving Barry Zito.

As I've said before Zito just seems to make a lot of sense given the Mets' ambitions for this year and the current state of the rotation. A trade for him would provide certain solutions, albeit dramatic ones, for current players with iffy roles on this team like Heilman and Diaz, and obviously allow Beane to collect on his guy before it's too late.

I don't see how Diaz fits the team in 06 and suspect he's better off traded than underutilized.

*********************************************************************
+++++++DANGER: WILD SPECULATION BELOW+++++++
***********************************************************************
So perhaps this rumor is about the Baltimore prospect moreso than Julio; and after this deal is done Baltimore Prospect, Diaz and Heilman (and say a Met prospect like Humber?!?) go to Oakland for Zito.

The crazy deal looks then like this:

Mets cough up
Heilman
Diaz
Benson
O's Prospect
Mets Prospect (Humber or Bannister?)

Mets get
Zito
Julio

O's Get
Benson

A's Get
Heilman
Diaz
O's Prospect
Mets Prospect

[Guest heep]

I don't think Diaz is going anywhere.

A favorite of Minaya, 0 to three, great potential.

Just a hunch.

[Frayed Knot]

]This gets weirder

Mebbe, but that site has the look of one that'll reprint anything no matter the source; newspapers, websites, cousin's freind's landlord, HVAC guy ...

]See why this organization scares me?

Yeah, I really envy those fans who are spared the agony of hearing trade rumors involving their guys and then always wind up liking the trades that eventually do come off anyway.
Remind me again who those teams are?

]Zito

I'm Really Leery (Really is Tim's long-lost brother) about going overboard for someone who's been good - though not really great - since his CY season and is headed for his last year before FA-gency. I hope BZ isn't another on of these rumored "obsessions" we keep hearing about.

]Diaz

Adam Rubin from the Daily News speculated on a radio program a month or so back that he didn't think the Mets were all that high on Diaz ... but who knows.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

If they were high on Diaz, why go cough up Cameron for Nady?

Not like me to be so speculative, but I've convinced myself this is the plan.

The Internet sez the O's are giving up Julio, RHP prospect John Maine (lotsa K's in the minors) plus another prospect, for Benson and a Met guy, perhaps Diaz.

[Guest SI Metman]

http://www.newsday.com/sports/ny-spbenson0122,0,5930212.story?coll=ny-sports-headlines

Heyman sez its a done deal.

JD's WATP is very plausible there. If they trade Diaz, they could replace him with Jeff DeVanon who the Mets are reportedly interested in, or perhaps take a very cheap flier on one Sammy Sosa.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Frayed Knot wrote: [Yeah, I really envy those fans who are spared the agony of hearing trade rumors involving their guys and then always wind up liking the trades that eventually do come off anyway. Remind me again who those teams are?

It's just a matter of nervousness about stupid trades, is all. I don't know how to measure units of nervousness, but it runs very high in Mets fans. Not so much in Sox fans, that I've noticed. Not high at all in Yankee fans, who suffer from insufferable confidence. Jets fans tend to have it, but more about draft picks than trades. Knicks fans, who mostly feel their whole roster is composed of seven-foot lumps of doody, actually seem to like trade talk, no matter how stupid--they're fearless in a way, too badly abused for too long to know any better.

I'm sure there are others, but these are the teams and the fans that I know best.

[metirish]

I'm shocked, shocked I tell ya......

[A Boy Named Seo]

Mets.com says it's done, too.

The Duke, that's what I'm calling John Maine, has some pretty dern good minor league numbers, and he's just 25 this May.

3-year cumulative minor league totals:

337.2 IP, 257 H, 104 BB, 384 K, 19 HR, 2.75 ERA, 1.07 WHIP

[MFS62]

Old report, but promising.


Monday, May 10, 2004

By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com

John Maine
Baltimore Orioles
Position: RHP Height: 6-4 Weight: 190 Born: 5/8/81 Bats: Right Throws: Right

Background
John Maine attended college at the University of North Carolina-Charlotte. As a sophomore in 2001, he led Conference USA with 12 wins, 144 strikeouts, and posted a 3.82 ERA, earning conference Pitcher of the Year honors. However, his junior season in 2002 was less successful, and he dropped to the sixth round in the draft that June. This turned into a bargain pick for the Orioles. Maine pitched brilliantly in his '02 pro debut, then zipped through A-ball in 2003, leading the minor leagues in strikeouts and posting a stellar 185/38 K/BB ratio. He began 2004 in Double-A, but earned his way to Triple-A after just five starts. Maine is one of the better right-handed pitching prospects in the game, and should arrive in Baltimore later this summer.


Scouting report
Maine is a good athlete, tall and somewhat lanky and thin, with broad shoulders. He has a "loose" arm and doesn't look overly vulnerable to injury. His biggest problem in college was erratic mechanics, which would hurt his command on occasion. But this has been much less of a problem in pro ball, and his command has been very sharp. His fastball runs in the 90-93 mph range, with excellent sinking and running action. He has made major improvements with his curveball and changeup, giving him a solid three-pitch arsenal. Maine can throw any of his pitches for strikes, and has overcome a previous habit of relying too much on his fastball. He is intelligent, emotionally mature, and has sound pitching instincts, understanding the necessity of changing speeds and keeping hitters off-balance. Although he doesn't throw quite as hard as some of the elite prospects in the game, he's proven he can dominate professional hitters.


Performance
There is little to complain about in Maine's statistical profile. His K/IP, K/BB, and H/IP ratios have been uniformly excellent at every level, particularly the K/IP. He doesn't give up very many home runs, another positive predictive marker for the future. Although he has just six starts at Double-A and above, his numbers show little deterioration at the higher levels, obviously a good sign. We need to see how he does with the additional Triple-A starts coming his way, but there is nothing in his record to indicate serious adjustment problems ahead.


Health record
Maine has had no serious injury problems. His occasionally erratic mechanics in college made some scouts worry about his long-term health, but he has been more consistent and efficient in pro ball. If you've been reading these reports long enough, you know that doesn't guarantee he'll stay healthy. But it does reduce the risk.


What to expect
Statistically, Maine offers just about everything. Scouting-wise, while he doesn't blow the ball past people with pure velocity, his stuff is more than respectable, and his command has been excellent. He's getting his shot now in Triple-A, and if he continues to pitch well, a promotion to Baltimore is likely later this season. Maine projects as a solid mid-rotation starter, and is a good example of the bargains that can be found in the middle rounds of most draft classes.

[Guest 86-Dreamer]

I am more sickened than shocked. Benson, Seo & Cameron all traded for crap.

[Valadius]

FUCK!!!!!!!!!

[nymr83]

what stupid fuckin trade, half the fuckin rotation got traded for shit relievers, good job omar. i cant wait for this bastard to get fired

[smg58]

Maine wasn't in BA's top 10 of the Orioles' prospects. Julio had a good year in 2002 and otherwise has absolutely nothing to recommend him. I'd need more confidence in Heilman being consistent as a starter (assuming that's the route they're going) in order to think this helps the rotation, but it WILL hurt the bullpen.

[Guest Beenso]

trading another starter for a reliever. that makes sense.

any word on the prospect?

un-fucking-believable

[Guest Beenso]

nevermind.

[smg58]

John Sickels had rated him #6 last year, but this is what he said in hindsight (http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/11/20/151524/77):

6) John Maine, RHP
6-11, 4.56 in 23 starts for Triple-A Ottawa, though his component ratios were up to previous standards. Hit hard in 10 games in the majors, with a poor 24/24 K/BB in 40 innings. I still think he will be a useful pitcher but I don't like him as much as I used to.

[Frayed Knot]

I don't get the fascination with Julio



John K. Maine (I guess his parents couldn't afford a middle name) hails from exactly where you'd expect someone named Maine to be from ... that's right; Fredricksburg, Virginia.

Went 2-3 in 10 games (8 starts) & 40 IPs last year w/Baltimore w/28 ERs, 24 Ks, & 28 BBs


From last year's Baseball America (Dec '04):

[u:30ce6dbef7]Strengths[/u:30ce6dbef7]: Maine succeeds more with command than pure stuff. He added a slider to give him four pitches, along with his fastball, curveball and changeup. He throws 90-91 mph with natural deception, and adds and subtracts from his fastball nicely. He's not afraid to work inside.
[u:30ce6dbef7]Weaknesses[/u:30ce6dbef7]: None of Maine's pitches is overwhelming, which explains why he struggles when he moves up to a new level. He also needs to refine his command and throw quality strikes after learning that advanced hitters lay off balls out of the zone.
[u:30ce6dbef7]Future[/u:30ce6dbef7]: Maine has a ceiling of a No 3 starter and probably a #4 or 5 on a first division club. But he's a pitcher's pitcher and should get the most out of his ability.
(no word whether he's also a pro's pro)

[Guest SI Metman]

Nymr83 wrote: what stupid fuckin trade, half the fuckin rotation got traded for shit relievers, good job omar. i cant wait for this bastard to get fired

I wonder if you'll change your opinion if Omar uses the 14 million in savings on Barry Zito...

[Frayed Knot]

]It's just a matter of nervousness about stupid trades, is all. I don't know how to measure units of nervousness, but it runs very high in Mets fans

Y'mean that you sense more nervousness when a trade is discussed involving one of the members of your (once ... and possibly future) team than you do when the Phils are rumored to be shopping Abreu, or when the Cubs discuss Prior? -- WOW!
Next thing you'll tell me is that you're more nervous watching your closer in the 9th than you are watching one trot in from someone else's pen.

You do realize that you're sliding closer and closer to the lack-of-perspective type of internet fan that you used to make fun of don't you?

[Guest KC]

Sliding closer? He fell off the cliff into the rapids and washed down into
the lake below.