Most Hated Shortstop in Met History

[Benjamin Grimm]

Me neither.

Even if his OBP never improves, (and it probably won't by a whole lot) he's still a far better player than Ordonez ever was. His future may not be as a leadoff hitter, but if he's ever demoted in the lineup (and replaced with a better leadoff guy) he'd be one of the better 8th-place hitters in the game. I've seen the Mets with so many easy outs in the 8th spot that I'd really appreciate a guy like Reyes there.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

MFS62--what Dickshot is positing is that AFTER 2006 if Reyes puts up a .311 OBP, do you sign an arbiration deal woith him or go for the bigbux? In fact, since there is a poll here that we're pretty much ignoring, I'll start my own poll on the subject.

[Benjamin Grimm]

If I have this figured right (and I may not) Reyes will be eligible for arbitration in 2007, 08, and 09, and can be a free agent after the 2009 season.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: ="Johnny Dickshot"]I raised the Reyes point to demonstrate that while it's easy to criticize deals when they're done, these decisions are rarely so obvious at the time you make them. And a fine point it was, though I don't really notice this thread becoming filled fast and furious with firm commitments to or against Reyes even a year in advance of any decision, with plenty of time to rethink before the decision needs to be made. What's your call, Johnny? Reyes goes .311 OBP next year, are you eager to sign him to a longterm bigbux deal?

Keep in mind, when you say "bigbux" you actually mean "usually less $$ overall than the 3 or 4 consecutive 1-year deals it would take to get him to free agency"

You say, no LT contract unless his OBP is north of 335 this year.

I wouldn't be that rigid (or unrealistic given that a pretty large jump). 311 is still pretty stinky, so maybe I go for a year at a time until he gets into a 330ish range too

[seawolf17]

Johnny Dickshot wrote: ="Bret Sabermetric"] Johnny Dickshot wrote: I raised the Reyes point to demonstrate that while it's easy to criticize deals when they're done, these decisions are rarely so obvious at the time you make them. And a fine point it was, though I don't really notice this thread becoming filled fast and furious with firm commitments to or against Reyes even a year in advance of any decision, with plenty of time to rethink before the decision needs to be made. What's your call, Johnny? Reyes goes .311 OBP next year, are you eager to sign him to a longterm bigbux deal? Keep in mind, when you say "bigbux" you actually mean "usually less $$ overall than the 3 or 4 consecutive 1-year deals it would take to get him to free agency" You say, no LT contract unless his OBP is north of 335 this year. I wouldn't be that rigid (or unrealistic given that a pretty large jump). 311 is still pretty stinky, so maybe I go for a year at a time until he gets into a 330ish range too

Right, but if he leas the league in triples and SBs and scores 100 runs, then you're going to have a pretty ugly arbitration fight on your hands. He might not just sign a one-year deal.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

seawolf17 wrote: He might not just sign a one-year deal.

I think that's what arbitration is: a one-year deal at a figure chosen by Mr. Arbitrator.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Johnny Dickshot wrote: You say, no LT contract unless his OBP is north of 335 this year. I wouldn't be that rigid (or unrealistic given that a pretty large jump). 311 is still pretty stinky, so maybe I go for a year at a time until he gets into a 330ish range too

That's pretty much what I mean, Johnny. If he goes .311, let's see an arbitrator. If he breaks .335 in 2007, I'll go for a multi-year deal. If not, it's back to the arbitrator again.

if he gets to his final year of arbitration-eligibility without having broken .335, well, I'll offer him a LT contract, but I don't think he's going to like what I'm offering to pay him.

[Frayed Knot]

]He might not just sign a one-year deal.

If that's all that's offered, he really has no choice -- at least for the next 4 seasons ('06 - '09)
Arbitration is merely a fall-back option that 3rd - 6th year players have to have their salary determined by an outsider if they and the team can't agree on an amount.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I found this website in the UMDB referrer logs. It's all about hating Mets players.

[MFS62]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: I found this website in the UMDB referrer logs. It's all about hating Mets players.

Any such site that doesn't have Al Moran listed among the worst shortstops just doesn't have a proper sense of Mets history.

Later

[nymr83]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: ="seawolf17"] He might not just sign a one-year deal. I think that's what arbitration is: a one-year deal at a figure chosen by Mr. Arbitrator.

unfortunately, i don't think Mr. Arbitrator has any idea who Bill James is or what OPS means....guys like Reyes tend (in my opinion) to get more in arbitration than better players with the same service time.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Nymr83 wrote: unfortunately, i don't think Mr. Arbitrator has any idea who Bill James is or what OPS means....guys like Reyes tend (in my opinion) to get more in arbitration than better players with the same service time.

I'm guessing you didn't know that Bill James was the source of my using the phrase "Mr. Arbitrator"--in an essay he wrote on what info you do and don't want to tell Mr. Arbitrator (and James indeed wrote that "You do, in fact, call him 'Mr. Arbitrator' "), he explains at length how you have to make sure not to say anything that Mr. A doesn't understand, how you have to be sure never to say anything incorrect or factually off, etc. James used to make a good chunk of his living, mostly working for players but sometoimes for clubs, testifying as an expert in arbitration hearings and he knows how sophisticaed some (not all) arbitrators are statistically.

[nymr83]

i meant "they dont know who he is" more as a knock on their knowledge of sabermetrics in general.
i have the feeling that most arbitrators don't care what your OBP looks like and that they'll see a regression in OBP and SLG accompanied by an increase in a more team-oriented stat (RBIs) and see that as a step forward for a player. i also think they overrate statistics, like the stolen base, that most people have since seen to be far less important than they were once thought to be.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Nymr83 wrote: i meant "they dont know who he is" more as a knock on their knowledge of sabermetrics in general. i have the feeling that most arbitrators don't care what your OBP looks like and that they'll see a regression in OBP and SLG accompanied by an increase in a more team-oriented stat (RBIs) and see that as a step forward for a player. i also think they overrate statistics, like the stolen base, that most people have since seen to be far less important than they were once thought to be.

I think James tried to educate them on the fly. If an agent was claiming that his client stealing 50 bases against 30 caught stealings was positive, James would demonstrate that 50/30 was actually more harmful than if he'd never tried to steal at all. And even if they had a better case, like Reyes' 60/15 ratio, he could quickly and easily show how little value those SBs had.

[Guest Little Napoleon]

Nymr83 wrote: how about Mike Bordick? Ordonez gets hurt and everyone is all like "wow this guy is great, he's the savior, he can hit" and he came here and laid an egg.

You got it! Mike Bordick. Hits a hr in his first game (against the Cards I think) and then literally and completely disappears for the rest of his time with the franchise. That's a good one.

You cant hate Gardenhire- he's a good guy.