Closer - 2006

[Centerfield]

I didn�t see a Closer thread so I figured I�d start one up. (I know there's a Wagner thread, but I wanted to discuss Hoffman too)

This article suggests that lowball offers to Billy Wagner and Trevor Hoffman could open the door to one of them ending up at Shea. And of course, it may just be a way of driving up interest, but both seem open to coming here.

One thing that pissed me off in the article: (listed as �con� for Hoffman)

He is 38 and has shown symptoms of Benitezitis - great in regular season, not great in the big spot. In his one trip to the World Series, he gave up a huge home run to Scott Brosius.

This is absolute garbage. First of all, it�s not as if Wagner has been lights-out in the post-season, (0-4, 7.71 ERA, 1 blown save in his only save opportunity). So to say this about Hoffman while staying silent on Wagner is simply idiotic. In fact, I remember people making that same "big spot" criticism about Wagner when he struggled a bit last September.

And for real, how many closers does this label have to be applied to before the NY media starts realizing blowing saves in big games is something that comes with the territory of being a closer and not some malady exclusive to one guy.

[smg58]

I agree about blown saves being part of the territory. I don't think Hoffmann did nearly well enough in an extreme pitcher's park to make me think that he's even equal with other older options like Wickman, Jones, or Gordon who would come much more cheaply. But that has nothing to do with how he pitched in one game in 1998.

[Guest Edgy DC]

It particularly comes with the territory in the post-season, when, instead of your typical opponent having a winning percentage of .500, they'll likely have a figure more like .610.

[MFS62]

He may be more of a LOOGY, but the Mets signed Matt Pershio.

] Former Marlin Matt Perisho agreed to terms with the New York Mets on a split minor league, major-league contract that includes an invitation to big-league spring training in February. The left-hander went 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in 25 games with Florida and the Boston Red Sox last season. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5820

[nymr83]

even if you wanted to believe that some guys were simply "choke-artists" a single appearence shouldn't be allowed to prove that point. Hoffman doesn't have enough postseason to make a statement one way or the other.

[Theoldmole]

The thing about the postseason is, you're pitching to hitters who have proven themself -- by being there -- to be the best around, and are incredibly motivated. Saves are not automatic. That's one of the things that makes postseason baseball so great.

[Guest abogdan]

What's wrong with just sticking with what the Mets have? Will Wagner be that much better than Heilman next year that he's worth adding $11 million or so for the next three years to the team's payroll? Heilman was lights out as a reliever last year, striking out nearly three times as many batters as he walked, with a 2.18 ERA. He's only 27 (happy birthday!), and isn't even arbitration eligble yet. I say give him a shot, and bring in a couple of guys like 'Berto as backup just in case Heilman can't get the job done.

[Guest abogdan]

Mets meet with Ryan:

]The Mets had another player meeting last night, this time with B.J. Ryan, a source told The Post. Ryan, one of the best free-agent closers on the market, met with front-office people from the Mets, according to the source. The group went to dinner in New York. Ryan is the fourth known major free agent the Mets have met face-to-face and the first to do it in New York. The Mets have visited closer Billy Wagner in VirginiaVirginia and catchers Bengie Molina in Arizona and Ramon Hernandez in California.

[Elster88]

="abogdan"]What's wrong with just sticking with what the Mets have? Will Wagner be that much better than Heilman next year that he's worth adding $11 million or so for the next three years to the team's payroll? Heilman was lights out as a reliever last year, striking out nearly three times as many batters as he walked, with a 2.18 ERA. He's only 27 (happy birthday!), and isn't even arbitration eligble yet. I say give him a shot, and bring in a couple of guys like 'Berto as backup just in case Heilman can't get the job done.

I'd rather let Heilman compete for a starting slot and pick up a Ryan.

I'm curious what people think, is Ryan > Wagner or the other way around?

[Guest abogdan]

Ryan > Wagner. Ryan's 4 years younger, will probably cost less, and give you the same or better production.

[Elster88]

Me too.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Yup. I think Ryan's better over the long haul, although Wagner might be better in 2006.

[smg58]

If the contract guarantees two years, I'd go with Wagner. If it takes at least three years to get either of them, I'd take Ryan (assuming he'd be a bit cheaper). If the price goes above $30M for Wagner or $25M for Ryan, I'd look at one of the older guys (Gordon, Wickman, Jones) for a short, relatively cheap contract (say two years at $10M or less) while grooming Heilman. I'd also look into Scott Eyre as a lefty setup guy, although a report today said we're not on his short list.

[Frayed Knot]

To be fair about this folks, Ryan has been a closer for all of one year now and has had a above-league-avg ERA for all of 3, while Wagner has been at or near the top for nearly a decade.

So while age, price - or at least perceived price - etc, may make Ryan a better risk in some opinions, let's not go overboard and declare these two to already be equals.

[Guest sharpie]

Wickman has said that he wants to stay in the midwest and will retire rather than play in another part of the country.

[Valadius]

BJ Ryan is a strikeout MACHINE.

[seawolf17]

Valadius' dad knows B.J. Ryan.

[Valadius]

No, but he does know Aaron Heilman. We got to chat with him for like 20 minutes before a game once. I got an autographed ball, but GODDAMMIT, he didn't sign on the sweet spot!!!

[Elster88]

Hot stove talk on M&MD. BJ Ryan does not want to be a setup guy and is not in love with coming to the Yankees.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Mets throw it all at Wagner Wine and dine free-agent closer, ready big-dollar pitch BY ADAM RUBIN DAILY NEWS SPORTS WRITER Billy Wagner throws fastballs at 100 mph. Yesterday the coveted free-agent closer began receiving a full-throttle pitch from the Mets that is expected to include a $30 million offer today. Tom Glavine and his wife Chris1 met the Wagners at Westchester County Airport in the morning, then accompanied them on a tour of housing options in Westchester and Connecticut. The couples had lunch in Greenwich. 1 Christine Glavine: http://www.irisharts.org/Images/ChristineGlavine.jpg While Wagner's wife Sarah2 joined an acquaintance of agent Bean Stringfellow3 at "The Phantom of the Opera" last night, Wagner was to dine in midtown Manhattan with principal owner Fred Wilpon, chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon, GM Omar Minaya and special assistant Tony Bernazard. 2 I can't find a picture of Sarah Wagner, but here's Shonda Schilling: http://www.incrediblepeople.com/image/shonda4-head%20shot.jpg 3 Bean Freakiing Stringfellow! Glavine selected New York over Philadelphia during a recruiting visit three years ago, when the Mets trotted out Mayor Bloomberg4, hockey Hall of Famer Rod Gilbert and then-Rangers goaltender Mike Richter to meet the former fourth-round pick of the Los Angeles Kings. Glavine was swayed in part by the veteran presence in the Mets' clubhouse compared with a relatively youthful Phillies clubhouse then. In Wagner's case, the visit was designed more to accentuate the comforts of suburban living given the closer's small-town roots. 4 On one hand, cool, the mayor is giving us equal time. On the other hand, he's helped the Yanks get get better than Glavine, hasn't he? In advance of the visit, the Mets shipped Wagner a DVD with the theme, "There's no other city like New York." Among the celebrities pitching the Big Apple: country singer Tim McGraw, Queens-born sportscaster Bob Costas, actor Kevin James5 of "King of Queens" and Jerry Seinfeld. 5 I always consult Kevin James before making life decisions. McGraw's hit song "Live Like You Were Dying" and an accompanying video tribute to his father Tug - the inspirational pitcher from the '73 Mets who also played 10 seasons with the Phillies - actually was played each game in Philadelphia during the 2005 season6. 6 So he's already heard that song at every home game this year in Philadelphia and it's supposed to sell him on New York? Heck, I've heard it maybe four times and I'm sick of it. "Hey, Wags, you too can have a stature as big as Tugger in this town if you'd just close out a championship, get brain cancer, and die. The Mets are expected to make the offer to Wagner before he flies out this afternoon. All indications are team brass intends to outbid the Phillies - guaranteeing at least three years at $10 million-$11 million per season, and potentially going to a fourth year like it did to lure Pedro Martinez. Wagner indicated last week that an improved offer from the Phillies was coming early this week, too. New Phillies GM Pat Gillick and manager Charlie Manuel visited Wagner at the closer's home near Charlottesville, Va., last Wednesday and impressed him. Philadelphia's initial bid didn't guarantee a third season, though the '08 option was believed to be easily attainable if Wagner stayed healthy. Wagner also acknowledged interest from the Braves and Red Sox and told ESPN.com he hoped to make a decsion by Dec. 9. "But I'm also willing to sit there and wait to find out who does what with their team. So it could be later," he told the Web site. Before visiting New York, Wagner was thought to be moved by Gillick's in-person pitch and leaning toward returning to Philadelphia, where he's comfortable. He plans to address his situation today at Shea Stadium. Wagner, 34, went 4-3 with a 1.51 ERA and 38 saves in 41 chances last season. "It would definitely be a huge pickup for us," infielder Chris Woodward said. "He's one of the closers that you pretty much consider the game to be over when he comes in. To have that kind of player on your team, you feel like you'll win every time you have the lead. That's a huge advantage. It would be tremendous for us." The Mets have contingency plans if Wagner returns to Philadelphia. They have dined with B.J. Ryan in New York, while free agent relievers Trevor Hoffman7, Tom Gordon8 and Bob Wickman9 also are available. Via trade, the Mets could attempt to obtain Danys Baez from the Devil Rays10. 7 Only short-term. 8 Only short-term and incentive-laden. 9 Pass. 10 Passity pass.

[metirish]

Bob Klapisch thinks the Mets are naive...

] Like a high school senior being recruited by a major college program, Billy Wagner got the full-metal-jacket tour of greater New York on Monday - surveying the Westchester and Connecticut suburbs with Tom Glavine and Jeff Wilpon in the afternoon, before being whisked off to a four-course meal in Manhattan with all the firepower the Mets could muster. By nightfall, Wagner was being courted by five organizational elders, including general manager Omar Minaya, assistant Tony Bernazard and manager Willie Randolph. It was a cosmetically perfect event for the Mets, but otherwise useless in their courtship of Wagner. The closer is in town for one reason only - to find out how much cash, not dinner, the Mets can put on the table. Indeed, that's the most pressing question of this young off-season: Will the Mets go to a fourth year to nail down the game's hardest-throwing lefty? One club source says, "We're not there yet," which could doom the courtship. Wagner told friends he could see himself living in New York, but it won't happen unless the Mets outbid the Phillies by plenty. To get there, Minaya will have to clone the dollar-orgy that pried Pedro Martinez away from the Red Sox last year. Pedro got the same one-on-one recruitment from the Mets - Minaya actually went to his home in the Dominican Republic during Thanksgiving - but it wasn't until the GM coughed up a fourth year that Pedro finally said goodbye to Red Sox Nation. It had nothing to do with the fact that Minaya and Martinez, both Dominicans, spoke in their native tongues. It wasn't New York that sold Pedro. Not once did Martinez mention the theater district or the Statue of Liberty as the reason for turning his back on the world champion Red Sox. The Mets simply wrote a bigger check. That's why the Wagner Tour, so touchingly publicity-conscious, is also so stunningly na�ve. Do the Mets really think a sightseeing tour possibly would influence where Wagner plays in 2006? He's a 34-year-old man, not some pale, gawking teenager on his first trip to New York. Wagner has been in the big leagues since 1995, long enough to know a) Manhattan is busy, the suburbs are green and c) this is the biggest stage in the baseball universe - loud and obnoxious, passionate and utterly committed all at once. Some can handle the fury here. Many cannot. Wagner is at least interested enough to hear what the Mets have to say later today, when the offer from the Wilpon family finally is handed down. If the Mets are stuck at three years at, say, $30 million-$31 million, the tour will have been a waste of time, money and gasoline. Wagner likely will head back to the Phillies, who are trying to convince him that newly hired GM Pat Gillick can end the 12-year postseason drought. The Mets are working on a much shorter dry spell, but they're still recovering from the effects of the Art Howe dark age. It was the Phillies, not the Mets, who missed the playoffs by one game this past season, and the only way the Mets - who finished six games behind in the wild card and seven behind the Braves in the East - can gloss over that deficit is to pay. And pay. Getting better players helps, too. Minaya is interested in Carlos Delgado and Luis Castillo, both of whom are ready to be dealt by the dollar-starved Marlins. Already, the gutting has begun in Florida, where Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell may be headed to the Red Sox in a deal that will drive the Marlins to their ultimate goal, a $40 million payroll. If Beckett, who suffers from chronic blister problems, can somehow stay healthy, the Yankees have every reason to sweat. But the Marlins aren't blindly generous. The Mets think there's little chance they'll be able to land Delgado or Castillo, not as long as Florida has other options such as the Orioles. "No way they want to send either guy, especially Delgado, within the division," is how one Met executive put it. Manny Ramirez is another possibility, but that quest will take weeks, if not a month or perhaps two, depending on whether the Sox are able to re-sign Johnny Damon. That's why the Mets are looking for closure with Wagner soon - this week, if possible. They have other options, including B.J. Ryan and Danys Baez, although the size and scope of Monday's Tour De Big Apple tells you who the Mets really covet. It's Wagner and his 100-mph fastball. It's his savage hits-to-innings ratio (45 to 75) and his ability to strike out more than a batter an inning. Those are the qualities that make managers dream of the postseason. And, conversely, it's what drains a GM's coffers. Later today, the world will find out exactly what Wagner is worth to the Mets, when the offer finally becomes real. By then, the limousine ride to the suburbs will be history. The dinner in Manhattan will be digested and forgotten, too. There's only one recruitment tool that matters now - the old-fashioned, old-school offer that Wagner can't refuse. E-mail: klapisch@northjersey.com

[Valadius]

If we get Wagner, I already have a great nickname for him. Stay tuned...

[nymr83]

Ryan's stats, besides k/9, just dont excite me. if we're going outside the organization it should be Wagner, but at what price? do we really want to go 4 years on him at his age?

[Guest ScarletKnight41]

Valadius wrote: If we get Wagner, I already have a great nickname for him. Stay tuned...

Fine. But Nady is the X-Man. Nothing else will do.

[Valadius]

Wagner will be an X-Man too... *hint hint*

[Guest Edgy DC]

Nightcrawler.

[Valadius]

Ding ding ding!

[Guest Edgy DC]

Eh. We'll see.

[nymr83]

...

[seawolf17]

Can't give a guy a nickname if he already has one... I don't know that "Billy Wags" is necessarily Hall of Fame Nickname material, but...