Catcher - 2006

[Frayed Knot]

Piazza unlikely to return

Nothing new really.
Minaya and Piazza's agent have talked but all sides imply that Mike is looking (at least at this point) for something more full-time than the Mets are willing to guarantee.
- Minaya: Mike "would probably be in a similar role to what it was [at the end of] last year"
-Agent Lozano: "After the World Series, we'll take a look at how many teams want him to catch and how many want him to DH. We're going to move forward based on the responses we get from the teams"

He goes on to claim that at least several NL teams have expressed interest in him as a catcher, in addition to the AL/DH offers he'll likely get.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Nov. 1, Post:

AMAZIN'S REACH OUT TO MOLINA

By MARK HALE

The Mets need a catcher, and they have officially begun the task of exploring possible successors to Mike Piazza.

Bengie Molina's agent, Alan Nero, said last night that the Mets have expressed interest in the free-agent backstop.

"I am talking to [GM] Omar [Minaya] and it appears that they definitely have interest, so we'll see," Nero said.

The offseason is only five days old, so it is premature to discuss the likelihood Molina, who has spent his whole career with the Angels, could end up a Met. He has already drawn interest from several other clubs, according to Nero, and that is not surprising; Molina, along with San Diego free agent Ramon Hernandez, is among the best available catchers. The 31-year-old hit .295 with 15 homers and 69 RBIs this past season and threw out 31 percent of runners attempting to steal.

Still, it appears as if Molina will at least consider playing at Shea.

"I would say he's excited about the Mets' interest, and as an open slate, he's going to consider it very openly," Nero said.

[Guest sharpie]

He's a good player and becoming a better hitter. Had career highs in homers and obp this past season. Has won two gold gloves. Bono-slow, but rarely strikes out. My only concern is that I still have a Jacobs-catching fantasy, but all in all I'd take Bengie (despite the ridiculous spelling) over Ramon Hernandez.

[Elster88]

sharpie wrote: He's a good player and becoming a better hitter. Had career highs in homers and obp this past season.

I am wary of these statements about a 31 year old catcher. Don't most catcher start going downhill at 33? I forget the magic age for catchers. Maybe it was higher than that.

[smg58]

We might be able to squeeze three years out of him, but I'd need some indication of what Jacobs could do defensively before I decided how eagerly I'd pursue other options. I do think Molina is a better choice than Hernandez, though.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Considering all the trouble we had with Matsui it'd be a huge upset if we went and got Jojima, but here's an old article about him anyway:

http://www.japantimes.com/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?sb20020329b5.htm

[nymr83]

that is an OLD article that tells us almost nothing about who he is now...
i'd be very wary of a japanese player at a high price...of course if he's cheap enough theres no reason not to add him as another option and play castro if he turns out bad.
i just don't want to sign a guy and then be "obligated" to play him because of the size of his contract.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I thought I made pretty clear it was an old article when I described it as an "old article."

Here's a more recent take:

http://ussmariner.com/?p=3054

[Guest Edgy DC]

Kenji Jojima has studied English.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Pudge? Matsui?

http://www.detnews.com/2005/tigers/0511/09/D01-376808.htm

[MFS62]

So he's learning English?
So what if he doesn't speak it well?
Neither did Casey Stengel and Yogi Berra.
How many words does he have to learn?

one -fastball
two - curve
three - slider
four - change
brushback
cut (the ball off on a throw coming home)
mine (on a bunt or popup)
and
get the ball over the #%&% plate.

He should be able to get those down by spring training

I'm more concerned on reports in some recent stories about him that he was injured last year. I haven't been able to find out the nature of those injuries. If they were the kind that indicate "wear and tear" on a catcher I'd be wary. But if they were accident related (plate collision or off field) that can heal well, he's worth a shot.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

Mets to meet face to face with B. Molina today although no concrete offers are expected.
My reservations about going overboard here lead off this thread.

Also mentions that they're in contact with (Japanese catcher) Jojima's agent and will likely meet with the player in the next week or so.

[Elster88]

MFS62 wrote: So he's learning English? So what if he doesn't speak it well? Neither did Casey Stengel and Yogi Berra. How many words does he have to learn? one -fastball two - curve three - slider four - change brushback cut (the ball off on a throw coming home) mine (on a bunt or popup) and get the ball over the #%&% plate. He should be able to get those down by spring training

I think there's more to it than that. The communication between pitcher and catcher is more important than any other two positions on the field. But, since a non-English-speaking pitcher has worked with an English-speaking catcher, I'm guessing the reverse could work too.

[MFS62]

Good point about the non-English speaking pitchers.
And I just remembered reading that English is a mandatory subject in schools in Japan. Maybe the classes he's been taking the past two years are just a refresher. He's supposely a good catch and throw guy, with some pop in his bat. And he's 3 or 4 years younger than Molina.
IMO he's worth a good hard looksie.

Later

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I think they should look at him too.

I know that a lot of fans think that the Mets were burned by Kaz Matsui, and he certainly has disappointed with his defense, but as we've seen with Ichiro, Japanese position players can succeed in the United States. It's foolish to think that all Japanese position players are clones of Kaz Matsui.

[Guest sharpie]

Some of them are clones of Shinjo.

[seawolf17]

Could you imagine a whole team of Shinjos and Matsuis, plus Benny Agbayani in left field and Matt Franco at first base, managed by Bobby Valentine? They would go 25-137, but they'd be a helluva lot of fun to watch.

[Frayed Knot]

According to the Tacoma News Tribue:

"The Seattle Mariners are said to be on the verge of signing Japanese catcher Kenji Jojima.
A source said Friday that the Mariners are close to signing Jojima to a two-year contract worth about $8 million with an option for a third season.
The 29-year-old Jojima was in Seattle on Friday, although he wasn’t accompanied by his agent, Alan Nero."

[Theoldmole]

And Omar and Bengie are having a bonding experience.

[MFS62]

="Frayed Knot"]According to the Tacoma News Tribue: "The Seattle Mariners are said to be on the verge of signing Japanese catcher Kenji Jojima. A source said Friday that the Mariners are close to signing Jojima to a two-year contract worth about $8 million with an option for a third season. The 29-year-old Jojima was in Seattle on Friday, although he wasn�t accompanied by his agent, Alan Nero."

Its not a done deal. The suburban Daily News said this morning that Nero will take his show East next week to meet with the Mets (among some other unnamed teams).

Later

[MFS62]

From the Seattle Paper:
Mariners club attorney Bart Waldman leaves today for the 55-and-over Roy Hobbs World Series in Ft. Myers, Fla. Waldman, 57, will pitch Sunday for the Puget Sound-area Washington Titans. Waldman's batterymate is none other than John Olerud Sr. ...

Hey, I wonder if he can hit like his kid?
And he's a free agent.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

John Olerud Sr. is mentioned briefly by Jim Bouton in 'Ball Four' as a minor league catcher in training camp for the Seattle Pilots.
He never made the majors.

[Zvon]

Mets brass met with Molina and Hernandez on this same trip.
Both catchers numbers last season:
Molina: 31 yrs old:119 games/ 15HR/ 69 RBI/ .295 BA and thown out 29%
Hernandez:29yrs old: 99games/ 12 HR/ 58RBI/ .290 BA and thrown out 26%

Either will do and then lets bag Wag.


^amended Hernandez stats>srry

[Guest Edgy DC]

And that's part of the reason that throwing out runners is vastly over-rated. We're not talking about replacing a guy who threw out 10% of would-be base-stealers with a guy who threw out 90%, or 50%.

We're talking about replacing a guy that threw out 14% with a guy that threw out 29%.

At that rate, one of those guys throws out 14 or 15 more guys getting Piazza's innings last year.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

Lots of random Olerud discussion today.

[Zvon]

I had Hernandez's stats wrong up there....fixed em,srry.

[nymr83]

OlerudOwned wrote: Lots of random Olerud discussion today.

we're all still frustrated that he left.

[Guest abogdan]

I'd much prefer to see the Giants sign Hernandez instead of Molina. Ramon is two years younger, and has been a much better hitter over his career while playing in two terrible hitters parks in Oakland and San Diego.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Somewhat surprisingly, none of us has looked in depth at the numbers of the 3 free agent catchers out there yet. I'll look into Jojima's stats and try to figure out where that translating thingee is later, but for the meantime, let's compare Molina & Hernandez.

Unfortunately, I'm having a hard time converting my Excel table into CPF-friendly code, so I'm just recapping here. I'll try again later.

Molina 3-year average: 385 AB, .285 AVG/.319 OBP/.433 SLG/.752 OPS, .53 BB/K, .148 IsoP
Hernandez 3-year average: 412 AB, .279 AVG/.326 OBP/.461 SLG/.787 OPS, .53 BB/K, .182 IsoP

Pretty similar, right? Hernandez has significantly more power but Molina gets more singles. Hernandez has also averaged over 25 more at bats per year.

Looking at splits, Angel Stadium is a pitcher's park, so you'd expect Molina to do better away, but you'd be wrong--.752 OPS at home versus .749 away over the past three years and there's been almost no variation in any of those years.

So how about Hernandez at PETCO the past two years? Unsurprisingly, he did much better away: .766 OPS at home versus .818 away over the past three years (so those splits include 2003 at McAfee Coliseum, a hitter's park--.781 OPS H & .765 OPS A in 2003).

So we could expect Hernandez to get a boost from moving out of PETCO, while Molina will probably stay about the same.

Now let's look at lefties v. righties.

Molina 3 year R: .272 AVG/.303 OBP/.389 SLG/.692 OPS.
Hernandez 3 year R: .291 AVG/.339 OBP/.463 SLG/.802 OPS.

Molina has consistently sucked against righties. 2004 was the only time in the past four years he's done better against them than lefties--.729 OPS v. .689 for lefties.

Hernandez, on the other hand, has done quite well against righties. In 2002 & 2004, however, he hit lefties significantly better than righties (.756 OPS v. .607 in 2002 & 1.035 v. .739 in 2004), so I'm not sure what to expect going forward.

Molina 3 year L: .316 AVG/.352 OBP/.537 SLG/.889 OPS
Hernandez 3 year L: .246 AVG/.313 OBP/.456 SLG/.769 OPS

Frankly, Molina looks like a platoon guy to me. He crushes lefties but doesn't hit righties well. And if we want a lefty killing catcher, we already have one in Castro:

Castro 3 year L: .299 AVG/.397 OBP/.537 SLG/.934 OPS

Hernandez, on the other hand, looks like he's got something of a reverse split but handles both lefties and righties pretty well for a catcher. Throw in the fact that he's 2 years younger, has been more durable and has been a better offensive player overall than Molina the past three years, and I think it's pretty clear that we should favor Hernandez over Molina.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Jojima

2003
551 AB, .330 AVG/.399 OBP/.593 SLG/.992 OPS, .300 IsoP, 1.06 BB/K

2004
426 AB, .338 AVG/.432 OBP/.655 SLG/1.087 OPS, .317 IsoP, 1.09 BB/K

2005
411 AB, .309 AVG/.381 OBP/.557 SLG/.938 OPS, .248 IsoP, .67 BB/K

He declined in 2005, although he still did quite well. Hard to tell if it's the beginning of a trend or if it was an off-year. Here's the projection via the methodology used by Hardball Times last season for Iguchi (which they did pretty well on, although the SLG didn't drop as much as they projected):

.280 AVG/.333 OBP/.421 SLG/.754 OPS, .141 IsoP

This only takes stats from the previous season into account, so if Jojima's drop last year was a fluke, his ceiling might be as high as:

.306 AVG/.377 OBP/.495 SLG/.872 OPS, .189 IsoP (based on his 2004 stats)

An unnamed Japanes scout spoke with the NJ Ledger and predicted the following: .280 AVG, 15 HR, 25-30 2B, with an upside of: .300 AVG, 20 HR, 40 2B. That dovetails pretty well with the HT translation.

Frankly, if Molina matched that first line over the next three years, I'd be happily surprised. Hernandez, IMO, is probably a safer bet than Jojima with about the same ceiling, but at a rumoured $9M over 2 years, Jojima could be an absolute steal. Given that we have a capable backup in Castro, I'd be pretty happy with a Jojima signing in terms of offense.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/coming-to-america
http://www.nj.com/mets/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/11321233849340.xml&coll=1
http://www.japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=102