All-Purpose 2005 Stretch-Run Thread

[Frayed Knot]

Not suprisingly, the odds are changing more rapidly now with each new day of results.

[u:1e3b34018d]AL East[/u:1e3b34018d]:

Yanx - Division = 64.55%, WC = 12.74%, Total = 77.29%
BoSox - Division = 35.45%, WC = 17.48%, Total = 52.93%

ChiSox - Division = 86.65%, WC = 12.60%, Total = 99.25%
seriously, I just used a racist word when I really meant "Guardians" - Division = 13.49%, WC = 57.18%, Total = 70.53%


Boston is playing so bad right now I have no faith in them whatsoever.
Arroyo just plain sucked last night and their hitters left about a million guys on base.

That's 3 straight [u:1e3b34018d]1 run losses[/u:1e3b34018d] for the Indians

Baltimore just plain suxx. Even when they play well they still manage to suck.



[u:1e3b34018d]NL - Wild Card[/u:1e3b34018d]:

Astros = 96.85%
Phillies = 3.15%

[Guest Edgy DC]

Too bad we couldn't have eliminated Philadelphia.

Let's finish the season by eliminateing the Rockies from something.

Hey, they're four games behind Los Angeles with four to go. That would be something.

Mo' better, let's secure third place, because last night's loss both cost us that position for a night, plus any chance we had at second.

[Frayed Knot]

ChiSox just win their gay dame and have clinched a playoff spot even though not yet a division.
Cleveland can still force a Central tie if they win tonight and then run the table against Chicago ... but even then, the fact that the Yanx & BoSox are playing each other assures that at least one (or both) of them will finish with a worse record than the theoretically tied Cleve/ChiW tandem meaning that the ChiSox are at least a WC at this point w/o having to go through any play-in games.

That situation may be good for the Indians - and bad for the MFYSawx loser - since the ChiSox now have nothing to play for and may rest some regulars against Cleveland this weekend, giving the seriously, I just used a racist word when I really meant "Guardians" a good shot at taking 2 or 3 games and thus grabbing the WC.


And I don't want to say that Boston is desperate but they just traded for Mike Stanton!! He won't be playoff eligible obviously but I guess they see him as a middle inning Giambi/Matsui antidote or something. Gee, that current lefty sidewinder Myers they already have can't do that?
This all kinda reminds me of the time that the Yanx traded for Dave Kingman strictly to play in a 4-game series against Boston figuring that he'd find the Monster an inviting target.

[Guest Edgy DC]

We should see what they'll give us for Frank Tanana.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Retrosheet says the remarkable career of Yankee Kingman included only two pinch at-bats against Boston, one for a homer:

#	Date	Opponent	GS	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	XI	ROE	GDP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	BP	Pos
	9-17	AT DET	1	5	1	2	1	0	1	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.400	.400	1.200	6	dh
	9-18	AT DET	1	4	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	1.111	6	dh
	9-19	AT BOS	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.400	.400	1.400	9	ph
	9-21	AT BOS	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.364	.364	1.273	9	ph
1	9-25	AT TOR	1	4	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.375	1.200	6	dh
	9-26	VS CLE	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.278	.350	1.000	6	dh
	9-27	VS CLE	1	3	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.286	.348	.952	6	dh
	9-30	VS DET	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.250	.333	.833	6	dh
		Total	6	24	5	6	2	0	4	7	2	0	13	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	.250	.333	.833

[Guest OlerudOwned]

Boston choking their way right out of this thing, down 4-1 in the fifth thanks to a 2 run homer by Frank Catalanatto (of Staten Island, i think).

ChiSox beat Detroit 4-2
MFYs leading Baltimore 6-0 in the 5th (MFGiambi homered, Aaron Small allowing 1 hit in 4 innings so far)
Injiuns lead the Rays 6-0 in the 6th, playing powerball with Hafner, Jhonny Peralta, and Ron Belliard homering.

[seawolf17]

David Ortiz just drilled one over the Monster in left-center to tie the game at 4 in the bottom of the eighth.

This guy is sick. 20 of his 47 home runs have either tied the game or given the Sox the lead. Can you believe the Twins just gave him away? Wow.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

="seawolf17"]David Ortiz just drilled one over the Monster in left-center to tie the game at 4 in the bottom of the eighth. This guy is sick. 20 of his 47 home runs have either tied the game or given the Sox the lead. Can you believe the Twins just gave him away? Wow.

MVPapi

[Frayed Knot]

Well Boston came back to win - on a 9th inning RBI walk-off single by
Papi of course - which is a good thing or this much-ballyhooed
weekend series was about to become really boring.

Yanx also won of course, meaning that Boston essentially has to win
3 out of 4; 2 of 3 to get them into a tie and then they'll need to take the
1-game playoff game on Monday (at Yanqui stad btw).
3 straight will also do it obviously.

I was wrong on the earlier post about the ChiSox. They HAVE won
the division because they win the head-to-head tie-breaker
w/the seriously, I just used a racist word when I really meant "Guardians" even if Cleveland sweeps this weekend's games.


Houston loses and heads into the final weekend w/a 2 game lead
over Philly.
Houston hosts Cubs for 3 more, Philly at Washington for 3.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Gonna be an interesting weekend.

I'm a little torn. Cleveland's an exciting young team, but I'm fond of the Sox and I really, really hate the Yankees.

Clearly, sweeps by Boston & Cleveland would be best, but I rather doubt that's going to happen.

I suppose the next best thing would be the Sox & Indians both go 2-1, the Sox win their 1-game playoff for the division win, then Cleveland wins their 1-game playoff for the WC win, thus eliminating the Yankees in excrutiating fashion.

That's marginally more likely, but Boston's pitching really sucks and if Small, Wang & Chacon haven't turned into pumpkins yet, I don't see it happening now.

My guess is that the Yankees & Indiands both take 2 this weekend and Boston is eliminated. Next most likely scenario is both Cleveland & Boston winning only 1 and dueling it out on Monday.

I wonder what Ozzie's going to do. If he packs it in and plays scrubs, whomever loses the Yankee/Sox series is going to be livid.

[Frayed Knot]

OK, let's see how this looks; # of MFY wins this weekend on top, # of Cleveland wins on the left:

	NYY=0	NYY=1	NYY=2	NYY=3
CLE=0	NYY	NYY	NYY	NYY
	BOS	BOS	BOS	B v C
CLE=1	BOS	NYY	NYY	NYY
	N v C	BOS	B v C	CLE
CLE=2	BOS	N v B	NYY	NYY
	CLE	Win v C	CLE	CLE
CLE=3	BOS	N v B	NYY	NYY
	CLE	CLE	CLE	CLE

Or, looked at another way, out of the 16 possible scenarios this weekend:

NYY are in post-season in 11 of them (70.3% chance of occuring)
need to win a play-in game in 2 (9.4%)
need to win TWO play-in games in 1 (14.0%)
and are OUTTA here in 2 (6.3%)

Boston gets in via 7 of the outcomes (36.0%)
Needs to win a play-in game in 3 (20.3%)
Needs the double play-in route in 1 (14%)
and is OUT in 5 (29.7%)

Cleveland gets in via 8 of the 16 (40.7%)
Needs a play-in game in 4 (including 1 where they wait for a NYY/Bos play-in) (34.3%)
and is out via 4 outcomes (25.0%)

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Ouch. Nice chart (and nice work) but bad news.

I guess we need to start accepting that the Yankees are probably in.

Their first round opponent could be Chicago, Cleveland, or Anaheim. I hope it's not the White Sox. I'd take Cleveland or Anaheim. It's strange not knowing who's going to be my temporary favorite team next week.

In the NL, the matchups are easier to guess: It will probably be Cards-Padres and Braves-Astros. If the Phillies pull off a small miracle, it'll be Cards-Phillies and Braves-Padres.

[Willets Point]

Wouldn't a play-in game at Yankee Stadium be sweet if the Red Sox won with the help of a cheap homerun by a light-hitting infielder?

[Frayed Knot]

AL scenarios above edited so as to include odds of occuring.
Odds are based on each individual game being a 50/50 shot.

Another way to look at that series is to just treat it as a [u:240300f8f5]4 Game series[/u:240300f8f5]
which is clinched as soon as the Yanx win 2 or the Sox win 3 and where
game 4 (Monday) is only played if necc.



In a similar deal with the NL Wild Card:
* Houston gets in via 13 of the 16 possible outcomes - (89.0%)

* Philly gets directly in via only 1 (they sweep, Astros gets swept) - (1.6%)

* and 2 of those 16 outcomes - Phils win 2 / Astros zero, or Phils win 3 / Astros 1 - will result
in a Monday death-match - (9.4%)




So, based on this method, there's a 25% chance that there'll be AL play-
in baseball on Monday, plus a 14% chance that they'll need be both
Monday & Tuesday to settle it all.
Tack on the 9.4% chance of an NL tie and it's nearly a 50/50 proposition
that there'll be at least one game of free Monday baseball and about a 4%
chance that BOTH leagues will need it!!!!

[Guest Rotblatt]

Alex Fucking Cora.
Tony Fucking Graffanino.

I like the sound of both of those.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Bottom 5, Red Sox 2, Yankees 1.

Top 6, White Sox 1, Indians 0.

[Zvon]

Update

Boston up 5-3.
Cleveland losing to Chicago in the 9th, 1-0.

Asstros tied 2-2 with the Cubbies after 6.
Phils are winning 4-2 in the 8th.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Philly won.

Cubs just tied up Houston again -- off Lidge in the 9th!

seriously, I just used a racist word when I really meant "Guardians"-WSox going to B 11 tied 1-1.

Great time of year this is.

[Zvon]

Johnny Dickshot wrote: Philly won. Cubs just tied up Houston again -- off Lidge in the 9th! seriously, I just used a racist word when I really meant "Guardians"-WSox going to B 11 tied 1-1. Great time of year this is.

Cubs beat Asstros!!!

Phils win!

Boston beat the Skanks and the Indians/WhiteSox game is still tied in the 12th.

Yea,....this is great baseball goin on here.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Plus, what's better than color commentary from Steve Phillips while Timo Perez plays right field?

That's right. Nothing.

Bottom 12th.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Nobody stayed up to report on Cleveland losing.

Plus, Ozzie used his post-game comments to fire back at critics who didn't like him starting his reserves the night after clinching.

FK's most excellent chart with now-impossible scenarios X-ed out:

	NYY=0	NYY=1	NYY=2	NYY=3
CLE=0	NYY	NYY	NYY	XXX
	BOS	BOS	BOS	XXX
CLE=1	BOS	NYY	NYY	XXX
	N v C	BOS	B v C	XXX
CLE=2	BOS	N v B	NYY	XXX
	CLE	Win v C	CLE	XXX
CLE=3	XXX	XXX	XXX	XXX
	XXX	XXX	XXX	XXX

The real back-to-the-wall team now is Cleveland, as the Yanks seem to be sitting just as pretty. Out of nine remaining scenarios, I see the Yankees still winning the division in six, getting a play-in for the division in a seventh, and getting a play-in for the wildcard if that seventh scenario for the division comes up short. And a last scenario is where Boston wins the division outright.

Boston wins the division outright in two scenarios in nine. In four scenarios, they win the wildcard, in one they play-in for the wildcard. In the last, they play-in for the division, and, if losing that, they play-in for the wildcard.

Cleveland, eliminated from the division championship, has two scenarios in nine in which they win the wildcard, and three in nine in which they get a play-n game.

Losing either of their next two costs them any chance to win the division outright. Losing both eliminates them no matter what the Yankees and Boston do to each other.

[Zvon]

I almost follow allAthat....its kinda early.

Note to self___________________
read this again after a cup of coffee.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, those fargin' seriously, I just used a racist word when I really meant "Guardians" blew the chance to make this REAL fuckin' interesting this weekend. It's still gonna be good, but now the winner of today's NY/Bos game is in the playoffs or at least survives until a Monday play-in game.

The ChiSox winning cements for them the best record in the AL, meaning that a WC winner coming from the East will face Chicago in the opening round.


Here's how it breaks down now:
Yanx & Boston are in the exact same situation obviously - except that the Yanx win any tiebreaker. So that those situations (top-middle of the chart) where those teams splits and Cleveland wins either 1 or none will make the Yanx champs and Boston the WC (maybe an advantage for the "loser"?)


Odds Report (assuming each game a 50/50 proposition):

NYY & Boston:
- In the playoffs in 6 of 9 outcomes - (68.75%)
- Need to win a play-in game in 1 of 9 - (12.5%)
- Need to win a double play-in game in 1 of 9 - (12.5%)
- and are OUT in only 1 of 9 {get swept/Cleveland wins both} - (6.25%)

Cleveland:
- In the playoffs in 2 of 9 outcomes (12.5%)
- Need to win a play-in game in 3 of 9 - including 1 where they play the NYY/BOS play-in winner (37.5%)
- OUTTA HERE in 4 of 9 (50%)





In the NL, Philly still faces long odds but they managed to shorten them up a bit:

Houston wins in 6 of 9 outcomes (68.75%)
Philly still clinches in only 1 - they take 2/Astros lose both (6.25%)
And a play-in game is needed for 2 of the 9 - Phils splits/Astros lose both, or Philly takes 2/Astros split (25%)

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

seriously, I just used a racist word when I really meant "Guardians" gotta be kicking themselves. Broussard, I think it was, whiffed with one out and a man on 3rd in the 11th, then Blake in the 13th got caught in no-man's land on Harris' drive to RCF, getting neither the catch nor the carom, allowing a triple on what should have been a double and might have been a single.

The Sox tried to give it back when Podsednik tried to bunt Harris in, but Harris wasn;t anticipating it and got thrown out. Only Podsednik advanced to 2nd on the play. Sox send up Konerko to PH and they walk him to get to Gload who creams one and scores two.

Belliard homers in the bottom of the inning to bring the Tribe back within one, then Broussard again poips up for the last out.

The White Sox have an excellent bullpen. One great arm after another.

[Frayed Knot]

]The White Sox have an excellent bullpen. One great arm after another.

And they've recently thrown this Bobby Jenks guy into the mix.
He became a hot-shot in the Angels org of few years back by throwing 100 mph - only he he couldn't control it. He also came from some real white-trash, trailer-park background and had trouble controlling himself on more than a few cases (and especially after he polished off a few cases).

Seems like Ozzie's now using him as the #1 closer.


And as I type this Cleveland is getting to the ChiSox pen and has closed to 4-3
The thing is, if the Indians are going to get swept away here the whole NYY/BOS series is essentially going to mean nothing after all the hype.

[Frayed Knot]

So the Yanx clinch the division and we're down to 4 possible scenarios:

Boston gets in anyway under 3 of them, and stays alive for a play-in game at home on Monday under the other.


Sunday's games:

1) Boston Wins / Cleveland Wins = Boston is WC, Indians go home

2) Boston Wins / Cleveland Loses = Boston is WC, Indians go home

3) Boston Loses / Cleveland Loses = Boston is WC, Indians go home

4) Boston Loses / Cleveland Wins = 1 Game Playoff for WC in Boston on Monday


If Boston is WC then Round 1 is:
Sox Rouge vs Sox Blanc -- & -- Yanks vs Angels (NYY home advantage)

If Cleveland is WC then it's:
Indians vs MFY in round 1 -- & -- Angels vs ChiSox (Chicago home ad)

[Guest Edgy DC]

Four outcomes left:

	NYY=0	NYY=1	NYY=2	NYY=3
CLE=0	XXX	NYY	NYY	XXX
	XXX	BOS	BOS	XXX
CLE=1	XXX	NYY	NYY	XXX
	XXX	BOS	B v C	XXX
CLE=2	XXX	XXX	XXX	XXX
	XXX	XXX	XXX	XXX
CLE=3	XXX	XXX	XXX	XXX
	XXX	XXX	XXX	XXX

Looks like the Yanks have clinched and Cleveland has only a one-in-four chance of getting even a play-in game. Is that right?

[Guest Rotblatt]

Yup, I think that's it, Edge.

I seriously think I'm going to root for the Yankees tomorrow. It would be the first time I've ever done that . . .

I might not be able to go through with it, though.

Torre indicated that he'd rest his regulars tomorrow, so it'd be especially humiliating if the Sox lost. I'm guessing Sheffield sits. A-Rod will play to burnish his MVP credentials.

Maybe we'll see Bellhorn out there tomorrow, which would be interesting.

[Frayed Knot]

NL WC is the same situation as the AL with the Astros playing the part of Boston and Phils starring as Cleveland.
Astros clinch with a win or a Phillie loss and are guaranteed of at least living until a Monday game if they lose & Phils win.

Houston sends Oswalt against Maddux, Phils using Leiber in Washington against carrasco.
In Boston it's Schilling vs J. Wright, in Cleveland Elarton vs McCarthy.


The only other update is that I didn't realize that the Yanx have NOT YET clinched home field over the Angels. A win today by LAA and a MFY loss means that the Agels hold the home field if/when those two meet.


And the Mets have clinched at least a tie for 3rd, and will have sole possession w/a win and/or a Marlin loss to the Braves.

[Willets Point]

Baseball causes me great pain yet I keep coming back. Is there an amnesty program for those tortured by baseball?