Galaxy .500

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Big Game tomorrow.

[Frayed Knot]

Last time 3 games over - and yes, I'm tempting the BBGs by typing this - was following the June 8th 4-1 loss to Houston (31 - 28), a loss which dropped us from our only time this season being 4 games over.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Even if we manage to hold on to win today, we'll probably just drop 3 in a row to get back to our baseline.

/appeasement of BBG

[metirish]

Guess when the last time the Mets were 3 over .500 this late in the season...

]THE JOURNAL NEWS (Original publication: July 22, 2005) NEW YORK — The last time the Mets were three games over .500 this late in the season, Bobby Valentine was the manager, Mo Vaughn could still fit into his uniform, and Timo Perez was considered a bright young talent. That was 2002 and it didn't last. Bobby V got fired, the Hit Dog retired, and Perez was shipped out of town like just about everybody else.

http://www.thejournalnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050722/SPORTS01/507220334/1108/SPORTS01

[Elster88]

I sure as hell didn't consider Timo a bright young talent in 2002.

[Guest mlbaseballtalk]

]I sure as hell didn't consider Timo a bright young talent in 2002.

When was Timo ever actually considered a "bright young talent"

Reminds me of Chris Berman parachuting in for the ESPN broadcast of the Mets and Giants calling Timo "A hot young prospect called up to inject enthusiam in September"

Yeah a 25 year old journyman (could be older) finally cracks the show after years of Globehopping and he gets labeled a prospect callup?

:roll: [/code]

[Frayed Knot]

I just never considered Timo to be very bright.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Timo kicked St. Louis & San Francisco ass in 2000. Forthat he's a pretty good Met. For everything else... yuk.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Great stuff by Alan Schwartz:

The New York Times
July 24, 2005
In the Race for Mediocrity, the Mets Rule
By ALAN SCHWARZ

In baseball's Hall of Fame of vapid clichés, "I just want to stay consistent" makes it on the first ballot. No one quite knows what it means, but the generally accepted translation is, "I just want this interview to end."

Consistency remains one of the sport's most prized attributes, as murky and mystical as inner peace. Yet the hobgoblin lurks in the most unexpected places.

Take this season's Yankees and Mets.

The Yankees have appeared to be one of the most inconsistent clubs in the majors, yo-yoing their way to dizzying streaks: They opened the season 11-19, then went 16-2, then 3-11, then 6-0, then 3-8, then 12-5 after Friday's loss. Several times this season, Manager Joe Torre has said, "We have not had consistency," usually with a resigned shake of his head.

The Mets, meanwhile, have traveled a remarkably straight path. In fact, from June 24 until last Wednesday, the Ambivalins spent 25 straight days either at .500, one game above or one game below. (Call it the longest Wimbledon tie breaker of all time.) Even after last week's series sweep of the San Diego Padres, only once since the first week of the season had the Mets stood more than three games from middle ground; every time they ventured above .500, its gravitational pull drew them back. General Manager Omar Minaya's lament was: "We haven't been consistent."

Something's wrong here. The Yankees and the Mets can't both be inconsistent, can they? A closer look at the numbers yields some surprising results.

First, if we define consistency as the tendency to repeat one's last action, the Yankees are slightly more consistent than the Mets - after all, that's how streaks are built. Through Thursday, the Yankees had followed a victory with a victory or a loss with a loss 56 percent of the time; the Mets had done so at a 52 percent rate.

The Mets haven't flipped back and forth quite as much as it would seem. Entering Friday, they had fewer one-game nonstreaks, 21, than the Yankees (22). But they had far more two- and three-game streaks than the Yankees (12 to 20), keeping their identity less defined. (Even to their respective general managers. The Yankees' Brian Cashman has confidently labeled his team a "Jekyll and Hyde situation," while Minaya said, "We don't know what we are.")

Then again, humans' tendency to pick out obvious trends causes them to miss others more hidden. Some mathematical gymnastics can portray the Yankees and the Mets as virtually opposite of what they initially appear.

Depending on where you put the cutoff point, the Yankees appear surprisingly consistent, with records of 9-11, 14-10, 14-12 and 14-11 since the start of the season. And our seemingly steady Mets? They zigzagged at 0-5, 11-4, 0-4, 6-1, 6-10 and 15-10.

Clearly, consistency and inconsistency are in the eye of the beholder. Searching for them is like measuring the length of a coastline, which varies with how closely you zoom in on every inlet. A walk from Miami to Maine is vastly longer for an ant than a giant.

At least one expert on baseball statistics has zoomed in on the Mets this season, just for fun, trying to determine how rare their dance around .500 truly is. Tom Ruane, an I.B.M. computer programmer in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., designed what he calls a Mediocrity Index. It essentially averages how close a team stays to .500 throughout a season. Sure enough, the Mets could set the major league record.

Through 95 games, the team had strayed an average of just over two-thirds of a game - .684 of a game to be precise - from .500, which is good enough for seventh place in the Mediocrity Index at this point in a season. (The top two Mediocrity Index teams this deep into a season were the 1959 White Sox, at .474 of a game, and the 1984 Montreal Expos, at .600.) If the Mets can stay this so-so the rest of the way, they could threaten the lowest score for a full season, .779 by the 1903 Brooklyn Superbas, later the Dodgers.

"It's tough to maintain over a whole season - all the other teams had long losing or winning streaks," Ruane said. "But I've found myself watching the Mets' scores and rooting one way or another when they're one game away from .500. You hope the anomaly continues."

So perhaps the Mets will become the most consistently inconsistent team ever, while the Yankees stay inconsistently consistent. Or something like that. It does get awfully confusing, especially when you're a player in the middle of it.

Perhaps the Yankees' Derek Jeter put it best, on the eve of his team's June series with - wouldn't you know it? - the Mets.

"The only consistency we've had," Jeter said, "is that when we're playing well, we win games consistently for a week. And when we're playing bad, we lose games consistently for a week."

This is a matter probably best suited for off-season contemplation. Walking along some beach somewhere, taking in the coastline.

E-mail: keepingscore@nytimes.com

[Benjamin Grimm]

The 1959 White Sox were American League champions.

They obviously broke the .500 pattern, and in a good way, late in the season.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Something tells me Tom Ruane was a poster. Maybe at the MOFo.

[Frayed Knot]

Well, we've hit our peak of .500+4 games - a spot we've been only once before this season (31 - 27) - and after which we proceeded to lose 9 of the next 11. Hopefully, a trip to Colorado won't start us on that same path.

The good news is that we're 7-3 since the A-S break while playing against 2 defending division champs and a current 1st place team (OK, so that's grossly misleading ... whatareyagonna do, shoot me?) with a RS/RA of 55/26

[Guest Rotblatt]

The bad news is that Colorado & Houston both do really well at their respective ballparks. Colorado is 24-23 at home, versus 10-40 on the road, and Houston is 30-14 at home and 21-33 on the road.

The good news is that we now have our secret Colorado weapon, Santiago. I hope our plan is to abuse the shit out of him on this road trip, then replace him with Bell, who will hopefully have feasted on AAA batters . . .

Oh, I read an article that Bell was sent down to work on his change-up.

[Elster88]

Rotblatt wrote: Colorado is 24-23 at home, versus 10-40 on the road

Our last four games of the year are vs Colorado at Shea.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Lest it be overlooked, going into today's game, the Mets were back at .500, for the 24th time this season, I believe.

They won today, so I again ask that they never return. Never return.

[metirish]

[metirish]

The above graph is from The Hardball Times..

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/in-good-standings/

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

[metirish]

Joe Gergan on August baseball for the Mets..

]As August sizzles, Mets fizzle As August sizzles, Mets fizzle These are the times that fry men's soles. It's hot, it's humid, it's sticky, it's exhausting, it's the eighth month of the year. August in New York never has been confused with autumn by any songwriter of note. For major-league baseball players, the season is two-thirds complete. Already, there is wear and tear on their bodies. Now the strain begins to seep into their minds. Pennants rarely are won in August but more than a few have been lost amid the dog days and breathless nights. "It's a grind," Mets first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz said. "The more games you play, the longer the season seems. It's hot and the travel begins to catch up to you. You've got to care of yourself, get your rest, get sleep, but still keep the cardio going." For only a few times in their history have the Mets mastered the art of baseball in August. Yes, the franchise has a losing record overall, but in no other month have the Amazin's lost at a similar rate. Their 11-17 mark a year ago not only effectively erased them from postseason consideration but also lowered their lifetime performance in the month to 560-674, a percentage of .454. "Last year was so bad," leftfielder Cliff Floyd said, "I was ready to go to LaGuardia the whole last month." Playing in August is taxing on the best and best-conditioned of athletes. It's even worse when the team has to check the newspapers to find a pennant race. That's when the mental fatigue threatens to overwhelm the physical, or at least magnify the soreness. "When you're in pressure situations or exciting situations, the adrenaline takes over," pitcher Tom Glavine said. "You feel the aches and pains far less." The Mets felt very good Monday night after their first game of the month, even though it required 11 innings and consumed 4 hours, 28 minutes. They took the field at Shea Stadium last night with a spring in their step despite a 90-degree reading and were even more energized after carrying a 4-3 lead into the eighth inning behind Pedro Martinez. Then Martinez departed and the Mets wilted. Game time today is 12:10. Hoo boy. "You've got to keep fighting one day at a time," Floyd said shortly before he smote a long home run off the top of the Big Apple just to the right of centerfield in the second inning. "You keep fighting 'til the ninth inning and at the end of the day, you see what happens." It's been five years since the Mets truly prospered in August. They won 20 of 29 in the month and placed themselves in contention for the wild-card berth that they punched as their ticket to a Subway Series against the Yankees. It was only one victory shy of the 21-10 and 21-11 records posted by the 1969 and 1986 teams, respectively. Not only did both reach the World Series but they ultimately prevailed against the American League champions. Such is their position now - last in the National League East but one game over .500 - that a similar surge might mark this as a September to remember. But a repeat of last August or, worse, the 6-21 they experienced in 2002, likely would bury them unless they had the clout to earn immediate transfer to the woeful NL West. Glavine was unaccustomed to playing out the string during the last 12 of his 15 seasons in Atlanta. With first place at stake, inspiration overcomes perspiration. "The mental fatigue is less if you're in a pennant race," he said. "If not, you've got to come to the park with your own motivation." "That's when you hope you've got strong individuals for teammates," said Mientkiewicz, who spent last August with the streaking Red Sox after three consecutive playoff seasons with the Twins and had three hits last night. "This is the farthest out of first place I've been in six years. But we've still got a shot." That shot grew longer last night when the Mets evened their August record at 1-1 with a 6-4 defeat at the hands of the Brewers. Not only did they lose the opportunity to gain a game on the first-place Braves but they fell farther behind the Nationals and the Phillies in their own division. The aches ached a little more. But today's a new day. Pass the sun screen.

[DocTee]

Q: when's the latest in a season that all teams in one division were .500 or better?

[DocTee]

or, considering the sad state of the NL West, worse than .500?

[Guest cooby]

My dad had a car like that, only it was red. And it did not have a shaker hood

[Willets Point]

We may see a need for this thread again (and that sucks!).

[Benjamin Grimm]

I know. When the Mets were 8 games over, I thought that this was done with.

Wild Card hopes are fading fast. RIght now, I think I'm rooting for 82-80 and fourth place.

[Elster88]

I wonder if 82-80 will be enough for fourth.
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[Benjamin Grimm]

It may not be.

[Guest Rotblatt]

We're going to finish 1 game out of the wild card race at 85 wins.

You heard it here first.

Actually, I think we'll probably end up at 82 wins or so, ahead of Washington by a game.

Really, though, we haven't played that badly the last few games. We're pitching brilliantly, we're hitting the ball, we're fielding pretty well, and we're working pitchers okay. We're just not getting that one big hit and the few mistakes we're making are instantly being capitilized on.

And Willie's a fucking moron, which I suppose I shouldn't really gloss over.

If we don't let up, some of those hard-hit balls will start falling in and we'll win a few games. Of course, our pitching will probably implode once that happens, but one thing at a time, I suppose . . .

[Elster88]

]we're hitting the ball

I'd argue with this one.
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[seawolf17]

Rotblatt wrote: We're pitching brilliantly

I'd argue this one too.

Rotblatt wrote: we're working pitchers okay

But I agree with this one. Reyes, Matsui... it feels like there are a couple of guys starting to take a few pitches.

[Elster88]

I think it was just Tuesday where Reyes was getting lambasted after popping out on the first pitch in the ninth following Anderson's walk.
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This post had the designation 161) Johnny Lewis