A-P "So You Think You're A Sportswriter" Thread

[metirish]

Klapisch can be quite a funny read....

] DALLAS - The shortest measure of time in this hurry-up world has been the millisecond between a light turning green and the guy behind you leaning on the horn. That's how long it took for George Steinbrenner to devise a battle plan to pry Roger Clemens away from Houston's baseball community and set up one of the greater comebacks in modern Yankee history. The engines are already humming. One Yankee official says, "It's only a matter of time" before the first phone call is made to Clemens' camp. The Boss can - and will - court The Rocket with money (anything you want, Rocket), by playing on his vanity (we've never really replaced you, Rocket), and his legacy (can the Astros really take you back to the World Series?). All this unfolded Wednesday night, when Houston owner Drayton McLane severed his ties with Clemens. By not offering the right-hander arbitration, the Astros are now back burnered until May 1, and while a majority of baseball insiders think Clemens will still end up in Houston, the four-month-plus window gives Steinbrenner a chance to fill three needs at once. First, Clemens would give the Yankees' rotation an immediate upgrade and allow them to send Carl Pavano packing. Despite general manager Brian Cashman's insistence that Pavano is an integral part of the Bombers' machinery in 2006, the unhappy pitcher's attitude continues to be a problem. A.J. Burnett said this week that Pavano is "miserable" pitching in New York, and has told a number of friends - including Burnett, his former teammate in Florida - he wants to be traded. Clemens' presence would make Pavano expendable, assuming someone would actually pay $10 million for an injured sinkerballer with diminished velocity. If Cashman can pull off a deal for Pavano, he deserves early consideration for Executive of the Year. But the Yankees clearly need a pitching response to the Red Sox and Blue Jays, both of whom are now stronger at the front of the rotation. Clemens and Randy Johnson are obviously fragile fortysomethings, but The Rocket was arguably the National League's best pitcher in 2005. If healthy, he would create a match for Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett, as well as Roy Halladay and Burnett. Finally, Clemens would give the Yankees a boost in the clubhouse, where he's still popular two years since his departure. The Rocket stays in touch with Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada, who e-mailed him advice about pitching to the White Sox during the World Series. In his very first day back in pinstripes, Clemens would replace Johnson as the Yankees' ace and eclipse Johnson's angry, dark aura. The Unit is a loner at his locker and appears just as isolated when he's on the mound, even during his best games. The Rocket has an other-world quirkiness about him, but the Yankees universally considered him a great teammate. Not one has ever said that about Johnson. Perhaps there's one other factor Steinbrenner should consider, too. The Yankees need to appear active this winter, if only because the Mets have stolen New York's attention. Actually, it's not a stretch to say the Mets now have a clearer path to the playoffs than the Bombers, which in itself is a sign of the apocalypse. True, the Yankees deserve credit for waiting out Johnny Damon, and they're wisely resisting the temptation to trade for the talented but troubled Milton Bradley. But the Bombers have otherwise allowed themselves to appear inert - while raising their top tickets prices to $100. For all the reasons Clemens makes sense, the question, of course, is whether his return to New York can actually happen. The Yankees will start probing the matter with Clemens' agents, which means finding out how much it will cost (at least $15 million, even for a May 1 start) and what concessions Clemens will be asking for. So far, no one has the answer, maybe not even Clemens himself. The Astros couldn't afford to wait any longer while The Rocket wrestled with career, family and health issues. Obviously, he's tired, still beat up from the '05 season, which ended with a disastrous appearance in Game 1 of the World Series. It's hard to believe Clemens has made peace with the image he projected walking off the mound - limping with a strained hamstring, unable to get past the second inning. Clemens, who intends to pitch in the World Baseball Classic in March, might retire if he's still sore after the international tournament. Or he might need an extra two months to recover. If so, it's possible Clemens will return to the Astros on May 1 as if nothing had changed. But no one in Clemens' camp could give McLane a definitive answer. Agent Randy Hendricks told ESPN.com, "I'm not sure what the future holds, but Roger has his own decision, and he'll make it - in late January or early February." Unlike the Yankees, the Astros don't have $15 million to $20 million to hold in reserve while Clemens weighs his option. That money has to be budgeted and spent in the next two months. Conversely, the Bombers are flush with cash, always their most potent weapon. In this case, money is no object, considering the Yankees are projecting a 2006 budget that's at least $20 million lighter than in '05 (assuming they don't sign Damon). Writing a last-minute check won't cause Steinbrenner any financial pain. It might even be the smartest cash withdrawal he's ever made. E-mail: klapisch@northjersey.com

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

]Actually, it's not a stretch to say the Mets now have a clearer path to the playoffs than the Bombers, which in itself is a sign of the apocalypse.

How nice if that turns out to be true.

[Guest Edgy DC]

] The Rocket stays in touch with Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada, who e-mailed him advice about pitching to the White Sox during the World Series.

And let's hope that continues:

Houston	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Clemens	2.0	4	3	3	0	1	1	13.50

[MFS62]

Klapish strikes again. He loves those "high ranking officials".
Seems like some reporters want to become the news rather than reporting it. He is stirring up the pot on the ESPN website.

Later

]NEW YORK -- After a flurry of delirious check-writing, appearances at glitzy press conferences and otherwise rerouting the road to mediocrity, has the unthinkable finally occurred in New York? Have the Mets become the city's best baseball team? No one would've dared pose the question in 2005, not even two months ago. But thanks to the Wilpon family's money and general manager Omar Minaya's near-compulsive need to make trades, the Mets boast a roster that's nearly as star-studded as the Yankees'. Even if the roster isn't as talented, the Mets might still have a clearer path to the playoffs than the Bombers. Says who, any Yankee loyalist will ask. None other than the Bombers themselves. One high-ranking official said this week, "There's no question the Mets are the best team in that [NL East] division. So go ahead, say they're favorites. Say they're the best team in the whole league. Put the pressure on them, for once." The Yankee official wasn't speaking spitefully or sarcastically, he was simply candid enough to tell the Mets: Welcome to our world, where even a two-game losing streak isn't tolerated, and five years without a world championship is the equivalent of a dark age. Harsh as it is, the Mets are loving the limelight. They're the hottest team in town and certainly the busiest. Their projected $110 million payroll is still some $70 million lighter than the Yankees', but they have All-Stars in four starting positions (first base, catcher, left and center field), an elite-caliber Opening Day starter in Pedro Martinez and the game's hardest-throwing lefty reliever in Billy Wagner. Many baseball officials believe the Mets now project to a 90-win season, even if Minaya doesn't make another move before April. Finishing at 90-72 might be good enough to topple the Braves. At the very least, the Mets have surged past the Phillies, Marlins and Nationals, none of whom have significantly improved this winter. The Yankees? They're a year older, slogging through a crisis in center field, trying to pass off Bubba Crosby as a suitable replacement to Bernie Williams. The real crossroads, however, will be the moment when Johnny Damon decides he'll accept less than a seven-year deal. But the question is for whom. While the Yankees wait out Damon and his agent, Scott Boras, the Red Sox and Blue Jays have both upgraded their starting rotations, prompting Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi to boldly say, "We've closed the gap" on the East's power brokers. It's conceivable a three-way race will ensue, and the Yankees could find themselves out of the playoffs for the first time since 1993. It's a long shot, but Yankees GM Brian Cashman is desperately looking for help. Still, as long as the Yankees are committed to Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang, and further refuse to trade Carl Pavano, they look inert compared to the Mets. Cashman admitted as much, wearily saying, "It took me four days just to trade [Tony] Womack" during the winter meetings. Of course, George Steinbrenner can't possibly allow the Mets to outright steal the Yankees' place in the universe. The Bombers are poised for an intense courtship of Roger Clemens beginning in January, and are so intent on stealing Damon away from the Red Sox, Joe Torre personally called the free-agent center fielder on Tuesday, according to Newsday. But the Mets aren't finished with their own upgrades, either. Minaya continues his pursuit of Manny Ramirez, having tried to hatch a three-way deal with the Rangers and Red Sox that would've landed the slugger at Shea. According to one National League official, the Mets wanted to trade Kris Benson to the Rangers for Juan Dominguez and Laynce Nix, then package them with Carlos Beltran to Boston for Ramirez. The deal never got past the Rangers, however, and Minaya has back-burnered Ramirez -- for now. In the meantime, the GM is low-key about his chances of outdistancing the Yankees, refusing to rule out the possibility of finishing second to Atlanta. "That's the best young nucleus they've had in a long time," Minaya said of the Braves. "They lose [Rafael] Furcal but they replace him with someone who might be even better [Edgar Renteria]. "We haven't won anything. The value of winning as a team, as a nucleus, that's insurmountable. The Braves have that." Clearly, Minaya is trying to take pressure off his newcomers, like Wagner, Carlos Delgado and Julio Franco. But the Mets front office is gearing up for a long, loud summer in Flushing, Queens. There's a new cable network, SportsNet New York, coming in 2006 and to help cover the cost, the Mets have raised their ticket prices by 7 percent, including prime seats that now cost $96 apiece. The Yankees moved even faster than the Mets in raising prices. Two weeks ago, they announced the Stadium's best seats will cost $110, after selling for $90 last year. Not that the two teams are actually competing for revenue. The Mets and Yankees have their own distinct fan bases, so the who's-better question is more likely to impact street corner debate than attendance or TV ratings. But the Yankees and Mets are clearly aware, if not wary, of each other. When the Bombers were looking for a center fielder last summer, they knew the most logical place to look was Shea Stadium, where Mike Cameron was unhappy after being shifted to right field. The Mets could've made a deal. They could've taken the Yankees up on their offer of Gary Sheffield for Cameron. But the trade was nixed at the highest levels in Queens, where one Met executive told a go-between, "Why should we help the Yankees get over the top? Why?" Bob Klapisch is a sports columnist for The Record (N.J.) and a regular contributor to ESPN.com

[Guest Rotblatt]

If we only win 90 games, it will be because one of our big boys gets injured (Delgado, Wright or Petey).

I mean, our Pythagorean projections had us winning 89 last year, and the difference between Delgado & our 1B production from last year should be worth at least 4 wins all on its own. Figure another 2 in the difference between Wagner & Looper, and maybe another win in the difference between Ishii's 91 innings &, say, Trachsel's. Replacing Cairo's AB's with just about anyone's (even Matsui's) should net us close to a win.

Now, Petey will probably decline somewhat, as will Floyd, but it's probably just as likely that Beltran & Reyes will improve. Seo should be more valuable over a full year (even with him pitching over his head). I'd guess that between expected declines & improvements, we'll end up at worst a win down.

In short, here are my projections:

30%--82 wins. Pretty much all our top guys would have to get seriously injured for this to happen.
50%--87 wins. Only if one of Petey, Delgado or Wright are useless the entire season, and one other of those 3 for half of it.
60%--92 wins--This is the low end of what I expect. Some guys wind up on the DL, one guy sucks unexpectedly, one no-name does well, etc.
50%--97 wins--Everyone's healthy all season long.
30%--100+ wins--Everyone's healthy and one or more of Wright, Reyes, Beltran or Petey go absolutely fucking bonkers.

My percentages thing may be a little too wishy-washy, but I like to give myself a little breathing room . . .

On edit: if you held a gun to my head and told me to pick a number, I'd go with 94.

[Elster88]

I'll take 94. Someone get a gun on Rotty.

[metirish]

Just sticking this here...congrats to Cliff,Kris, Mookie and Mike.

] Baseball writers cite A-Rod twice BY BOB HERZOG STAFF WRITER January 30, 2006 He still hasn't brought Yankees fans the hardware they really covet - a World Series trophy - but Alex Rodriguez was the only guest to be presented two awards last night by the New York chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America at the organization's annual dinner at the Sheraton Hotel and Towers in Manhattan. A-Rod, who excelled in his second season with the Yankees - batting .321 with 130 RBIs and leading the AL in homers (48), runs (124) and slugging percentage (.610) - was given the New York chapter's prestigious Player of the Year Award as well as the American League MVP award he won from the national chapter of the BBWAA. "You wish an award like this could be sliced into 25 pieces," A-Rod said in deferring to his teammates. "I think we are overdue to raise the flag in New York in 2006." One of the loudest ovations of the evening was reserved for popular former Mets centerfielder Mookie Wilson, who won the New York chapter's signature Willie, Mickey and the Duke Award for those players forever linked in our baseball memories. Wilson and former Red Sox first baseman Bill Buckner - who did not attend - were saluted for their roles in the famous play in Game 6 of the 1986 World Series in which they performed a modern-day version of Ralph Branca giving up the winning home run in the 1951 World Series to Bobby Thomson, both previous winners of the award. Buckner has been a virtual baseball recluse since letting Wilson's ground ball squirt between his legs and allowing the winning run to score in the 10th inning. Wilson was lavish in praise of Buckner. "He's a true friend and a true professional," Wilson said. "That play doesn't define Bill Buckner's life or his career." There were seven other New York BBWAA honorees last night, including the Joe DiMaggio Toast of the Town Award to Mike Piazza, who was unable to attend because he was celebrating his first wedding anniversary. Other N.Y. chapter award winners were: Casey Stengel You Could Look It Up (Jim Kaat, for winning 25 games in 1966 but not getting the Cy Young Award because only one was given back then and it went to Sandy Koufax); Ben Epstein Good Guy (Cliff Floyd, for making the media's job easier and more pleasant); Milton Richman You Gotta Have Heart (Orlando Hernandez for his great escape against Boston in the 2005 ALDS as well as his original great escape from Cuba); World Series MVP (Jermaine Dye); Joan Payson Community Service (Kris Benson) and William J. Slocum Long and Meritorious Service (White Sox executive Roland Hemond).

[MFS62]

Didn't someone post here that Buckner is not a recluse, but that he often shows up at card shows and picture signings?

Later

[metirish]

Wright the next Derrek Lee?

] Young primed to hit the stratosphereBy Phil Rogers Special to ESPN.com Archive The idea here is to identify the next Derrek Lee. Good luck on that. Lee was more than a mere Triple-Crown contender.If we take every element of Lee's rise into stardom in 2005, we might as well search for the proverbial needle in a haystack. There aren't many who ever come as far as the Cubs' first baseman did last year. Entering the season at age 29, with eight years and 1,027 games of experience, Lee had never been an All-Star. He had never driven in 100 runs nor scored 100 runs. He had never won a batting title. He had never hit 40 home runs. He had certainly never received MVP consideration. He did all of those things last season, entering September with a legitimate shot at winning the first Triple Crown in 38 years. He elevated his game from productive to great. Who among the current hitters is poised to follow that example? Initially, I set out to see which veterans seemed ready to step forward after being positioned like the 2005 version of Lee in only three categories: (1) never before being an All-Star; (2) never having driven in 100 runs; and (3) never finishing in the top five in MVP voting. But that proved impossible. So I relaxed the standard to identify guys who meet two of those three criteria. It remained a short list. Here's a look at who's ready for a breakout season: Michael Young Very much like Lee, the Texas shortstop has gotten a little better every season he has played. His OPS has climbed steadily -- .690, .785, .836 and .899 over the last four years -- as he has grown more comfortable with his approach and ability to drive the ball. He enters 2006 at age 29 and as the reigning American League batting champ, having raised his batting average every year of his career -- most recently to .331 from .313 in 2004 and .306 in '03. His plate discipline has also improved; his on-base percentage jumped by 32 points last season. Young, who appears to have benefited from the time he spent playing alongside Alex Rodriguez, is a right-handed hitter in a park that better suits left-handed hitters. He has learned to hit the ball the other way, driving many home runs into the bullpen in right-center during his career. Hitting instructor Rudy Jaramillo is a valuable asset, constantly pushing Young to get better. He is a consummate pro who hasn't lost his focus in the second halves of many lost seasons with the misfiring Rangers. It will be interesting to see how big of a lift he gets if he ever gets to play in a serious playoff race. David Wright Because he's only 23, Wright might not quite fit. But he is a star in the making, and if the Mets knock off Atlanta this season, it would probably have more to do with his production than that of his teammates with huge salaries, namely Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado. A first-round pick in the 2001 draft, Wright advanced steadily through the Mets' system before arriving with a bullet in 2004. He hit .293 with 14 homers and an .857 OPS in 263 at-bats. Had this been a fluke, he would have immediately declined in 2005, but he was even more productive as he settled into the league, batting .306 with 27 home runs (in a tough place to hit homers) and a .912 OPS. Scouts love the way the right-handed hitting Wright works pitchers and extends at-bats. His plate discipline improved markedly in 2005, when his ratio of strikeouts to walks dropped from almost 3-1 to about 1.5-1. Most of Wright's at-bats came in the fifth spot last season, but his totals could explode if manager Willie Randolph opts to hit him third and use Delgado as protection. He could hit 30-plus home runs and drive in 120. Lyle Overbay An excellent hitter with emerging power, the 29-year-old Overbay was traded to Toronto to open up first base for Prince Fielder in Milwaukee. It is the second move of his career, so it shouldn't cause too big of an adjustment. That's especially true because the Rogers Centre will continue his career trend of playing in retractable roof stadiums. While Miller Park is also a good hitter's ballpark, the Rogers Centre suits left-handed hitters a little better. Overbay is driven; his batting average actually dropped 25 points in 2005, perhaps because he was looking over his shoulder at Fielder. He could play with a clear head this season and will hit in a good spot next to Vernon Wells and Troy Glaus. He's expected to be a complementary player, but he has the tools and patient approach to emerge as the cornerstone piece, just as Lee did with the Cubs. Joe Mauer Like Wright, it's probably too early to put Mauer on this list. He'll turn 23 on April 19. But much has been asked of the Minnesota catcher before his time, so it would not be a huge surprise if he had a breakout season. The key for Mauer in 2005 was getting past the problems with his left knee that limited him to only 35 games in his rookie season and threatened to force him to deal with a position change. "He's healthy now,'' Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. "His knee got checked out at the end of the year. No problems. It looks great. Everything is fantastic. He's a stud. � This young man is a real deal.'' Mauer played in 131 games last season, including 116 behind the plate, but did not deliver the kind of impact that had been expected of him. He soon will, perhaps in 2006. A left-handed hitter, Mauer has hit .297 with an .811 OPS in his first two seasons despite the bumpy ride. That's an impressive base to build on in difficult times. AL pitchers are told repeatedly that Mauer is the guy in the Twins' lineup that they can't let beat them. But he could benefit from Torii Hunter's return to health and better production from Justin Morneau, the power-hitting first baseman who slumped in 2005. If Mauer is going to drive in 100-plus runs and put together numbers to get on an MVP short list, he'll have to convince Gardenhire to use him as the designated hitter when he's not catching. For that to happen consistently, Mauer will have to improve against left-handed pitchers. He batted .225 with no homers in 142 at-bats against them last year. So maybe it is too soon to include him on this list. Carl Crawford With a wealth of experience before his 25th birthday, the speedy Crawford is the one Devil Ray who is coveted the most by the 29 other teams. Think of him as the guy with the best chance to be Rickey Henderson. He's a fly guy -- leading the AL in triples the last two seasons -- but is developing power as he ages. Crawford has jumped his OPS from .671 to .800 in two years, and no one believes he has come near his potential. He still has a very limited understanding of the strike zone and managed to hit .301 last year despite consistently chasing breaking balls in the dirt. When he learns to spit on that pitch, he will become one of the most respected hitters in the AL. Don't be surprised if this is the year that happens. New Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon is an excellent choice for the task of getting through to Crawford. He worked with many young talents as the bench coach in Anaheim, but perhaps none with Crawford's combination of skills and experience at this age. With the likes of Jorge Cantu, Jonny Gomes, Rocco Baldelli, B.J. Upton and Delmon Young in the 2006 lineup, Crawford should be ready to get to work when he reports to spring training. Nick Johnson Scouts are just about unanimous in proclaiming Johnson as an All-Star in waiting. Many felt it would have already happened, but he's only 27. Johnson came to the big leagues as a skilled hitter with the 2001 Yankees, when he was only 22, and was considered a steal for the Montreal Expos in the Javier Vazquez trade. But injuries (back and a broken cheekbone) limited him to 73 games in 2004, so 2005 was his first major-league season with 400-plus at-bats. He bounced back to the form he had shown with the Yankees -- his yearly OPS the last three seasons is .894, .758 and .887 -- and he should be ready to build on that in 2006. RFK Stadium is known as a tough park for hitters, but it suits the left-handed hitting Johnson better than his right-handed teammates. It takes imagination to picture an MVP candidate on the Washington Nationals, but Johnson could put up big numbers if he gets the 650 plate appearances he should have coming his way. His totals could really jump if teammates like Alfonso Soriano, Jose Guillen, Jose Vidro and 21-year-old third baseman Ryan Zimmerman also have good years. ******* These players don't qualify, but they fit: Paul Konerko The White Sox first baseman had his coming-out season in 2005, earning MVP honors in the American League Championship Series and then nailing down a $60 million contract after the season. But he's a good bet to keep growing as he heads into his 30s, and you'd be foolish not to consider the possibility that he could put himself on the short list for league MVP honors with a monster season. Konerko has always been his own harshest critic but should open 2006 as a very confident hitter. He made things easier on himself by not jumping to the Los Angeles Angels, and he should get good pitches to hit working in tandem with new teammate Jim Thome. Victor Martinez The switch-hitting Indians catcher raised his batting average by 22 points last season but didn't hit for quite as much power as he had in 2004. The next step in his learning process should find him hitting over .300 with increasing power. He could also benefit from the Coco Crisp trade, as the acquisition of power-hitting catcher Kelly Shoppach has manager Eric Wedge considering sometimes using Martinez at first base. He needs to be in the lineup every day and should gain in stature if Cleveland follows up on a promising 2005 with a playoff run in 2006. Phil Rogers is the national baseball writer for the Chicago Tribune, which has a Web site at www.chicagosports.com.

[Guest rpackrat]

Can I just point out that Phil Rogers is one of the biggest hacks in a field full of hacks? Take nothing he says seriously.

[metirish]

] Tuesday, February 21, 2006 By BOB KLAPISCH SPORTS COLUMNIST PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- The debate has raged both in the manager's office and clubhouse, not to mention chat rooms and blogs. Everyone, it seems, has an opinion about the Mets' batting order, with the winds of war swirling around one burning issue: Where does David Wright hit in 2006? The question hasn't been officially answered, as Willie Randolph continues to say, "I'm playing around with a few ideas." Yet, the manager is dropping hints that Wright will bat fifth, with Paul Lo Duca in the two hole and Carlos Beltran behind him in the No. 3 spot. Clearly, there are no fatal choices here -- one major league executive recently said, "[The Mets] will probably outscore everyone in that [Eastern] division" -- but Randolph is apparently content to play it safe, keeping Wright out of the third spot. "I guess I'm a show-me guy, I want to see that David can keep making the adjustments," Randolph said Monday, leaving yet another clue. Fair enough, he doesn't want to rush the kid. But anyone who saw Wright tear up the National League after the All-Star break last year -- batting .333 with 16 homers in 273 at-bats -- would agree he became the Mets' greatest all-around threat. That's why a case could be made for batting Wright third instead of Beltran, who finished 2005 with career lows in home runs (16) and RBI (78). That could all change in Beltran's second summer at Shea, but until he rebounds, traditional baseball theory says a team's purest hitter (in this case, Wright) belongs in the three-hole, not the No. 5 spot. Of course, batting Wright third effectively would crown him as the Mets' crown jewel, effectively demoting Beltran. That's probably too great of an admission for Randolph to make, and politically, a nearly impossible move for a team that has $119 million invested in the center fielder. Wright himself seems uncomfortable with the dialogue, insisting it's still "a lot of fun" to slowly work his way to the lineup's hot spot. "Look, I started off batting seventh last year, so to me it was great that Willie started trusting me, moving me up a little at a time," Wright said. "People tell me all the time, 'You should be ticked off where you're hitting.' But I'm not, not at all." Wright sounds convincing, but egos and organizational obstacles aside, the stats suggest not only is Wright better suited than Beltran to hit third, but Beltran is a better choice than Lo Duca to bat second. By his own admission, Lo Duca intends to serve as a traditional No. 2 hitter, bunting, hitting-and-running, taking enough pitches for Jose Reyes to steal a base. Lo Duca described that selfless profile when he said last week, "My job is to get [Reyes] to third base with less than two outs and we'll have a 1-0 lead with the guys behind me." But the Mets, who finished seventh in runs last year, now have enough firepower to play for more than a run at a time -- which could be a necessity, given the holes in their starting rotation. They can maximize that big-inning potential by using the more gifted Beltran behind Reyes. Despite last year's disappointing numbers, Beltran's career slugging percentage is still 62 points higher than Lo Duca's, he's hit 96 more homers, has 224 more walks and has grounded into fewer double plays. In short, Beltran is more likely to extend a rally than Lo Duca -- not unlike the Yankees' plan for Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter, their No. 1 and 2 hitters, to both get on base. With Reyes and Beltran as table setters, they'd create the perfect introduction to Shea's version of murderer's row -- Wright, Carlos Delgado and Cliff Floyd, who combined to slug 94 home runs last year. It might not be Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi and Alex Rodriguez, but the Mets are moving in that direction. The difference, however, is that the Yankees are able to alternate left- and right-handed hitters all the way through the batting order, whereas the Mets would be vulnerable to a lefty relief specialist if Wright does, in fact, bat third. Doing so would mean pairing Delgado and Floyd, both left-handed hitters, in the No. 4 and 5 spots. It's the kind of subtle lineup flaw that opposing managers can exploit, especially in the late innings, and probably reason enough for Randolph to keep Wright batting fifth. At least for now. But sooner or later, the 23-year-old third baseman will become the franchise's marquee player, no matter where he hits. Don't tell that to Wright, who, hand on his heart, thinks Delgado is a better hitter than he is -- "just look at his numbers last year in a non-hitter's ballpark [Dolphins Stadium]" and promises that Beltran is ready for a bounce-back year. "There's going to be a lot less pressure on Carlos this time around," Wright said. "That's why it doesn't matter where I hit. This team is going to score runs, period." Klapisch's opening-day Mets' lineup Jose Reyes SS Carlos Beltran CF David Wright 3B Carlos Delgado 1B Cliff Floyd LF Victor Diaz RF Paul Lo Duca C Kaz Matsui 2B Pedro Martinez P -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- E-mail:klapisch@northjersey.com

[Elster88]

Jose Reyes SS
Carlos Beltran CF
David Wright 3B
Carlos Delgado 1B
Cliff Floyd LF
Victor Diaz RF
Paul Lo Duca C
Kaz Matsui 2B

I also think this is the best bet. I still feel like we're one big bat away, be it Diaz or Nady in RF. I'm worried about Cornelius getting hurt.

[seawolf17]

Willie said yesterday that he's going to bat Wright eighth, because he thinks he needs more seasoning.

(Just kidding.)

[Guest Rotblatt]

"I guess I'm a show-me guy, I want to see that David can keep making the adjustments."

What does that even mean? Wright hit in every spot Willie threw him last year--does Willie really expect that to change? Or does Wright have to learn how to adjust to, say, batting left handed or with one hand tied behind his back before Willie moves him up?

And let's see what Lo Duca's done out of the 2 hole over his last three years:

#2 .265 AVG/.327 OBP/.335 SLG/.662 OPS in 555 ABs.

I'm sure he sacrificed a lot of runners over to third in that time, though, which is really the most important thing for any batter. This smells like Miguel fucking Cairo all over again.

I move we put this article into the "Willie's a stupid assclown" thread. I mean, seriously, if Klapisch can figure out that Wright's our best hitter, that Beltran doesn't belong in the 3 hole, and that LoDuca has no business batting in the top third of our lineup all on his own, why can't Willie get even ONE of those things right?

[Elster88]

There is way to much hate for the sacrifice bunt in these parts.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I'd hate to think that whenever Reyes leads off the first by getting on base, that the Mets are going to play for only one run. (Stolen base, grounder to the right side, sac fly.) Let Lo Duca (if he's hitting second) try to get a base hit. Then you have two guys on with Beltran, Delgado, and Wright coming up. Why squander a chance to get four or five runs in the first inning?

[metirish]

]There is way to much hate for the sacrifice bunt in these parts

There are certainly times when I hate it, I agree with what Yancy wrote, surely LoDuca is a better hitter than that, I think he was just talking bullshit really, trying to say the right things..watch come May he'll be swinging like Ordonez in his prime.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Elster88 wrote: There is way to much hate for the sacrifice bunt in these parts.

No, there's hate for managers who think that the ability to lay down a bunt compensates for the fact that someone's a poor hitter.

Back to lineup order, I just took a look at Beltran's 3-year splits, and check it out;

#2 497 AB, .290 AVG/.391 OBP/.575 SLG/.966 OPS
#3 1003 AB, .261 AVG/.335 OBP/.445 SLG/.780 OPS

If that last line looks familiar to you, it's because it's remarkably similar to how he hit last year, minus a little power (.266 AVG/.330 OBP/.414 SLG).

Historically, Beltran has hit better from the 2 hole. So why not use him there?

[metirish]

]Historically, Beltran has hit better from the 2 hole. So why not use him there?

As Klapisch points out

] Of course, batting Wright third effectively would crown him as the Mets' crown jewel, effectively demoting Beltran. That's probably too great of an admission for Randolph to make, and politically, a nearly impossible move for a team that has $119 million invested in the center fielder.

No way Willie cares about stuff like that, right?

[Elster88]

]I'd hate to think that whenever Reyes leads off the first by getting on base, that the Mets are going to play for only one run. (Stolen base, grounder to the right side, sac fly.) Let Lo Duca (if he's hitting second) try to get a base hit. Then you have two guys on with Beltran, Delgado, and Wright coming up. Why squander a chance to get four or five runs in the first inning?

I'm not familiar with any of them myself, but there have to be some studies out there weighing the usefulness of the sacrifice bunt versus swinging away.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Quick and dirty: A sac bunt results in an out 90+% of the time; and swinging away doesn't.

There have been lots of studies of runs score to bases-outs situations clearly showing outs are most costly than bases valuable, particularly as they relate to scoring more than 1 run.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Crappy tabling here, can someone fix?

Bases column to the left, actual runs scored by outs.

With 0 out and a man on first = .97 runs
1 out and a man on second = .73 runs

Bases Outs
0 1 2
empty 0.57 0.31 0.12
1st 0.97 0.60 0.27
2nd 1.18 0.73 0.33
1st, 2nd 1.63 1.01 0.48
3rd 1.52 1.00 0.41
1st, 3rd 1.92 1.24 0.52
2nd, 3rd 2.05 1.50 0.64
1st, 2nd, 3rd 2.54 1.70 0.82

[Guest Edgy DC]

It strikes me that a big part of the value to bunts and hit-and-runs is staying out of the double play. Of course that's hardly guaranteed as K-2-4 DPs and 1-3 popout DPs have shown.

Two great ways to stay out of DPs with Reyes on first and the number two batter up is (1) sending Reyes to steal outright and (2) putting Beltran second.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Well, that didn't work:

Bases					Outs
							0		1		2
		empty	0.57	0.31	0.12
			1st	0.97	0.60	0.27
			2nd	1.18	0.73	0.33
1st, 2nd	1.63	1.01	0.48
			3rd	1.52	1.00	0.41
1st, 3rd	1.92	1.24	0.52
2nd, 3rd	2.05	1.50	0.64
1st, 2nd, 3rd 2.54	1.70	0.82

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I can understand the reasoning behind sacrificing and playing for a single run when it's late in the game and you know that the one run can very well win the ballgame for you. (Tie score in the bottom of the ninth is a classic example. The big inning is no better than the one-run inning.)

But in the first inning, the character of the game hasn't been defined yet. The opposing team may end up scoring seven runs. Getting three or four runs in the first will be much more helpful than just aiming for one.

[Guest abogdan]

There have been many, many studies done to estimate the impact of a sacrifice bunt. Baseball Prospectus ran a [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2844]three[/url]-[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2851]part[/url] [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2869]series[/url] on it in 2004. The full study is subscription-only, but here are the study's conclusions:

]Thus, having eliminated some of the key inefficiencies of the equations from their initial iteration, the following conclusions can be drawn about the data. When run maximization is paramount (early in the game, in high run-scoring environments, etc): Only pitchers should sacrifice a man from first to second in any circumstances. Even then, certain pitchers who are decent hitters should swing away. With a runner on second and no one out, sacrificing makes sense when some of the league�s worst hitters are due up, with a hitter with a high propensity for singles and doubles following. The most likely instance of this is as a lineup in the AL turns over from the ninth spot to the first spot. Even then, instances where sacrificing increases run expectation are rare. Sacrificing with men on first and second is only a good idea when pitchers are due up. While the thresholds here are higher than in Situations 1 and 2, they still remain far too low for even the worst regular position players. When the probability of scoring at least one run is paramount (late in a close game, in a low run-scoring environment, or facing a dominating pitcher, etc): Similar to the run maximization situation, only pitchers should sacrifice a man from first. Given that a pitcher would likely rarely be batting in this situation where runs are at a premium, this situation is likely to never occur. Most of the league should sacrifice a man from second with no one out. While a line of .277/.350/.451 is slightly above average, recall that the skill set of the second batter due up should also be taken into account. On the whole, this finding is in the greatest agreement with conventional strategy. When runners are on first and second, sacrificing is, again, not a good idea, a finding that is due almost entirely to the opposing manager�s propensity to intentionally walk the next batter to keep the double play in order. This 10% decrease (approximately) in the scoring probability of the situation is enough to reduce the threshold across a great deal of current hitters. If a manager is certain that the opposition will not intentionally walk Batter Two, the validity of the sacrifice is increased in these situations. Therefore, in the broadest conclusion possible, we can say that sacrificing is a good idea when pitchers are batting and, for most of the hitters in the league, when there is a man on second, no one out, and a single run is the goal. Even then, there is a set of the league�s best hitters who should never lay down a bunt; which is too bad, because it would be fun to see Bonds square around, just once.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Dickshot's table:

	Outs
Bases	0	1

[MFS62]

Just when you thought it was aafe to open up your morning sports page:
(insert music from Jaws here)

http://www.nypost.com/sports/mets/62240.htm

Here we go again.

Later

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

]It's time to do everything in their power to make Manny a Met.

Even for those who want to see Manny as a Met, everything in their power seems a bit extreme.

[MFS62]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: ]It's time to do everything in their power to make Manny a Met. Even for those who want to see Manny as a Met, everything in their power seems a bit extreme.

That's why the article was perfect for this thread.

Later