A-P "So You Think You're A Sportswriter" Thread

[Guest Rotblatt]

From the Post

]ZAMBRANO BETTER THAN HIS STATS Jay Greenberg June 23, 2005 -- PHILADELPHIA � Scott Kazmir beat the Yankees yesterday just three hours before Victor Zambrano went to the mound for the Mets. Strictly coincidence? Ongoing evidence of a parallel universe? You be the judge, knowing the jury of public opinion last season voted for the execution of GM Jim Duquette after just one season. Certainly, there had to be more behind the call Fred Wilpon made to Omar Minaya, offering him carte blanche and a bigger budget, than the mass hysteria over one trade of a prime left-handed pitching prospect for a righty who showed up with a bum elbow and a history of walking the ballpark. But with the Mets falling out of the race almost as soon as a deal designed to keep them in it was made, the image of Kazmir-for-Zambrano became almost as negative as the perception of the Wilpons as owners who won't let GMs do their job. Thus, a change was made to a Latin American charmer that led to the Mets getting Pedro Martinez, who led to Carlos Beltran. Not a bad thing, obviously, but it turns out neither is Zambrano, who last night lowered his ERA in his last seven starts to 2.80 and still couldn't win his fourth game of the season, never mind a season ERA more than a half-run better than Kazmir's 4.62. Of course, there is such a thing as pitching just well enough for your team to lose. And there also is such a thing as getting out of the sixth 2-2 and being able to turn the game over to a much better bullpen than one with which the Mets are trying to stay in a five-team divisional race.

Ah, yes, the magnificent Tampa Bay bullpen, who just TWO DAYS AGO gave up FOURTEEN RUNS in 3.1 innings.

But, you know, that was just against the MIGHTY and ALL-POWERFUL Yankees. I'm sure they've been much better against mere mortal teams, right?

Well, would you look at that! Tampa's relief ERA is 5.79, the 29th worst in the majors. That doesn't sound very good, does it? Well, the Mets' must be the one team worse then them, since Mr. Greenberg wouldn't write an article without doing some research, would he?

What's that you say? More than a run and a half better than Tampa's? 4.15? 15th in the majors? Well, Mr. Greenberg must be a SABRE-oriented guy who doesn't pay attention to ERA, but to more esoteric stats, like WHIP, K/9, K/BB. Perhaps Tampa just got unlucky with their ERA.

TB
1.61 WHIP, 6.07 K/9, 1.38 K/BB
NYM
1.49 WHIP, 7.75 K/9, 2.15 K/BB

Well, it sadly appears I gave Mr. Greenberg too much credit. He was, in fact, talking completely out of his ass.

]Royce Ring, Dae-Sung Koo and especially Aaron Heilman, doing nothing to help any claim on Kaz Ishii's spot in the rotation, detonated a six-run Phils' seventh that left Zambrano's high-wire expedition for naught, not to anyone's surprise. Zambrano threw ball one to eight of the first nine Phillies he faced, one of which Chase Utley doubled in the second. Utley later scored in the inning when David Wright stupidly assumed a catch on a sinking liner he trapped. Having already struck out Jim Thome twice, once with the bases loaded, Zambrano got behind the slumping slugger 3-0, then grooved a changeup for a homer that put the Phillies up 2-1 in the fifth. That noted, Zambrano got Pat Burrell to hit into a double play to end the first-inning threat, and was left in the game one batter too long when Cliff Floyd saved the game, at least for another inning, with a based-loaded, shoulder-banging, catch against the wall. So it can be argued Zambrano deserved a better fate, whether inexorably linked to Kazmir's or not. In these seven games in which the Met righty has stopped looking like an utterly ridiculous idea, his teammates have scored 12 runs, somehow less support than the Wilpons gave the demoted Duquette. Time alone won't tell what kind of a trade this will turn out to be. There are other considerations, all hypothetical. The teams worried about both pitchers' elbow wear and tear in more ways than one. Had the Mets waited until the offseason to deal Kazmir, more accomplished options, like Tim Hudson, would have been available. Hindsight is wonderful. But would foresight have enabled Duquette to know the Wilpons, who had cut the player budget by $20 million for 2004, would kick it back up by a similar amount to make splashes with Martinez and Beltran? Zambrano was a 29-year-old with universally acknowledged electric stuff, plus a winning career record for a bad team, making a budget-friendly $2.1 million a year and not eligible for free agency until 2007.

Ah, hindsight. Without the benefit of hindsight, who really thought, last July, that getting Zambrano & Benson wouldn't vault the Mets firmly into the wild card slot? Wow! So . . . Many . . . Hands!

You know what's better than a 29-year old with electric stuff who only costs $2.1M and isn't eligible for free agency until 2007? A 20-year old with electric stuff who only costs $300K and isn't eligible for free agency until 2010!

And if you seriously want to compare who's been more valuable this year, let's look at all their stats, not just ERA:

Kazmir
4.62 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.47 K/BB, 7.14 K/9
Zambrano
3.97 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 1.13 K/BB, 5.84 K/9

I don't know about you, but I'd take Kazmir's line every time. Zambrano's line looks like a pitcher who's been incredibly lucky to keep his ERA as low as it's been, and if you'd bother to watch his starts, Mr. Greenberg, you'd see the same damn thing. But maybe you just watched both games last night. Maybe last night, Zambrano was better than Kazmir.

Kaz v. Yankees
7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 HR
3.86 ERA, 0.86 WHIP

Zambrano v. Phillies
6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 HR
3.00 ERA, 1.5 WHIP

Despite the better ERA, Zambrano got lucky. And if, as you say, Kaz got bailed out by his bullpen, then you have to concede that he helped himself by being able to go 7 innings instead of just 6.

]So it seemed right. And still might be in the long run, if the Mets get a better bullpen, offense and other things whose absences have left them three games under .500 for better reasons than Victor Zambrano.

"Other things"? Are you #$*&#* serious? Jesus, but you're a bad writer . . . Mr. Greenberg, you are officially a douchebag.

[MFS62]

]Thus, a change was made to a Latin American charmer that led to the Mets getting Pedro Martinez, who led to Carlos Beltran.

The heck with stats. How does he prove that one?
Was Victor the deciding factor , or any factor for that matter, in the Mets getting Pedro?

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

For a starting pitcher, ERA is still the bottom line. Peripherals tell you a lot about who can dominate and appears to be the better bet long-term, but not really who has performed better thus far.

In other words, if I want a guarantee of those numbers for the rest of the year, I take Zambrano's line; if I want what those numbers seem to project and promise, I take Kazzy's.

I think the bullpen is beside the point. When judging individual players in a team game, wins and losses, is mostly beside the point, no matter how often we lead with wins and losses when lookign at a starting pitcher.

I don't support that trade at all, but some small credit has to go to Zambrano here.

[MFS62]

Edgy DC wrote: For a starting pitcher, ERA is still the bottom line. Peripherals tell you a lot about who can dominate and appears to be the better bet long-term, but not really who has performed better thus far.

Edgy, I was just going to post a similar comment. Peripherals (especially WHIP) are really an indication of ability rather than a measure of performance.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

]Despite the better ERA, Zambrano got lucky.

Last night? He wound up tagged for an earned run and threw at least a few dozen extra pitches thanks to a few head-up-the-ass plays from his defense, and as usual had no room for error because the offense spit the bit again.

What's so lucky about that?

[Guest ScarletKnight41]

The flip side is that Floyd's catch saved Zambrano from three additional runs in the 6th.

[metirish]

Mr. Powell from Newsday has some tired old clich�s for us,I do think about Kaz when Vic is pitching though...

]Kazmir hurts both NY teams Kazmir hurts both NY teams Jun 23, 2005 PHILADELPHIA -- In a sense, they remain separated at birth, which in this case was last July 30, when one was traded for the other. That's because no Mets fan can look at Victor Zambrano without seeing Scott Kazmir. And seeing red. Almost a year after the Mets made a deal with the Devil (Rays), it's still being blamed for everything that's wrong with the Mets: their spotty track record with major trades, their current blas� state and their inability right now to find somebody not named Pedro who can get batters out. Judging by the decibel level of discontent coming from Metville, the trade for Zambrano is also being faulted for everything wrong with the city. If New York doesn't get the Olympics in 2012, well, you know why. By coincidence, the twins found themselves pitching on the same day, Kazmir against the Yankees in the afternoon and Zambrano against the Phillies at night, making it possible for skeptics to watch and compare notes. Again. And wouldn't you know: Kazmir delivered one of his strongest efforts since the Mets declared he wasn't ready to produce right away and gave up on him. Less than 24 hours after the Yankees made a stirring comeback to beat Tampa Bay, Kazmir shut Yankee Stadium up real quick. He overcame a 2-0 deficit, showed plenty of poise for a 21-year-old and managed to frustrate two baseball boroughs: the Bronx and Queens. So even before his first pitch at Citizens Bank Park, Zambrano was already behind on the count. But typical of his night, he escaped serious trouble and once again delivered a respectable performance. Zambrano brought in a June ERA of 2.49, fourth-lowest in the National League, and it didn't rise against the Phillies. He emerged nick-free after loading the bases with no outs in the first inning, and again in his final inning when Cliff Floyd squeezed the third out before crashing into the wall in the sixth. Zambrano gave up only two runs and gave the Mets a chance to take two straight from the Phillies until the bullpen did him no favors in an 8-4 loss. The worst thing about his night was his luck, which still hasn't changed for the better. Imagine: He finally overcomes early-season control problems and puts together several decent starts, then suffers from a lack of run support, gets a bullpen meltdown against the Phillies and has a 3-6 record to show for it. The Mets have given Zambrano 12 runs in his last seven starts. "I've been feeling better every game," Zambrano said. "I'm trying to make myself stronger. When you get good results, you get a lot of confidence in yourself." Boosted by his decent stretch, the Mets were still trying to justify the decision to surrender their best pitching prospect for a 29-year-old with a history of command problems. It has been 11 months since pitching coach Rick Peterson famously convinced his bosses that he could fix Zambrano's flaws "in 10 minutes." And while we're on the subject, Peterson wants to clarify: He didn't actually make the trade. "A big misconception," he said. "Silly." True, the call was made by the Wilpons and former GM Jim Duquette, although they weighed Peterson's opinion heavily, which made sense. After all, Peterson did put Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and Barry Zito on the right path in Oakland. Given his history with young pitchers, you assume he knows what makes them work and what makes them crumble. He was just a little off on the timetable for Zambrano. That's all. "I never met Victor before the trade," Peterson said. "I just looked at film and saw he had issues with his delivery, which could be solved. There were also issues with his physical condition, and you can't take somebody and turn them into a Navy SEAL overnight. You knew it was going to be an evolving progress, as it always is with young pitchers. Things aren't done overnight." Will Zambrano ever show the stuff needed to become a front-line starter? "This is what we expect from him," Peterson said. "Because he can do it. I tell him that all the time." He'd better if the Mets plan to squash all lingering doubts about the trade. Because even if Kazmir ultimately is nothing special, he was a precious bargaining chip for the Mets. They could've used him to solve a few other problems with the right deal. Instead, they're three games under .500, sitting on the bottom of the division and desperate to end this 2-6 road trip from hell. But here's what's so strange about the toughest stretch of the season: None of this is Zambrano's fault. Hard to believe, isn't it?

[Guest Rotblatt]

Sure, give Zambrano credit for working out of many of the jams he--or his defense--has put him into. I don't dislike him, and I think he's gutsy if undisciplined, and if we'd given up a Blade for him, I'd have been thrilled. Just don't try and tell me that the trade for him seemed like a smart one at the time because Zambrano has "electric stuff" (Kaz's is more electric), is cheap for a while (Kaz is cheaper and for longer) and has a winning record for a losing team (who cares?).

Or that the trade is working out because a 30-year old pitcher with 5 years of major-league experience has a marginally better ERA than the 21-year old with less than a full season under his belt. Particularly when their peripherals suggest that the 30-year old's ERA will go down and the 21-year old's will go up.

Kazmir's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): 4.52 (before last night's game)
Zambrano's: 4.71 (ditto)

More than that, though, is how offensive I think it is for someone to spew out crap like this article without looking at more than a pitcher's win-loss record, his ERA & last night's box score. How does he get paid for this?

[Guest Edgy DC]

]That's because no Mets fan can look at Victor Zambrano without seeing Scott Kazmir. And seeing red.

Yeah, speak for yourself, Charlie Brown.

I think .65 is a big margin of "marginally better." You make a good point by narrowning that down when you show the pitching independent ERA. That's a highly speculative stat, of course, but ERA itself is also.

Basically, I think the Mets were wrong, and I'm hoping that they are proven right.

Even moreso, I'm hoping that it ends up like Danny Heep for Mike Scott -- a mistake made much less relevant by being revealed amidst so much other success.

[Guest Rotblatt]

]Last night? He wound up tagged for an earned run and threw at least a few dozen extra pitches thanks to a few head-up-the-ass plays from his defense, and as usual had no room for error because the offense spit the bit again. What's so lucky about that?

3 walks + 3 singles + 2 2B + 1 HR + 1 WP + 6 IP + 2 R = lucky.

One of the singles was a bunt single, and one of the runs probably shouldn't have scored, but he still allowed 9 error-free base runners through 6 innings and only gave up 2 runs. I call that lucky, whether it's Zambrano doing it now or Leiter doing it in 2004.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I don't think Floyd was "lucky" to catch that ball: It took a good play but Floyd is capable of making good plays.

What was unlucky was Wright standing there holding the ball while a run crossed the plate in front of him.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

probably?

[Guest Rotblatt]

]Even moreso, I'm hoping that it ends up like Danny Heep for Mike Scott -- a mistake made much less relevant by being revealed amidst so much other success.

Me too, Edgy.

] I don't think Floyd was "lucky" to catch that ball: It took a good play but Floyd is capable of making good plays. What was unlucky was Wright standing there holding the ball while a run crossed the plate in front of him.

Sure, but my point is that most of the time, a pitcher who gives up 3 extra base hits, 3 walks, and 3 singles in 6 innings is usually going to give up more than 2 runs. Throw in an error by Woody and boneheaded play by Wright, and it's a goddamn mircacle he didn't give up more.

[Guest Rotblatt]

]probably?

I didn't see it, Wide, but my impression from Ed & Howie was that Wright's best play was at first base, not home, and even had he gotten Lieberthal, the run would have scored.

But again, I didn't see it, so maybe not.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

It was an easy play at home if he wanted it, and I was thinking, maybe even a DP if Utley doesn't pickle himself.

He was playing on the grass; the ball was hit hard enough that Wright thought it was a liner even if it was a short hop, so there was a lot of time.

Not for nothing, but Wright has made far more shaky, dumb and/or bad plays than I would have expected this year.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, both sides are summed up succinctly and excellently in today's Faith and Fear in Flushing.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Yeah, but it hasn't bothered me so much yet. He's still young and has time to grow into 3B defensively. Although I have to say, I thought by now he'd have gotten most of that out of his system . . .

Thanks for the info on the play! It was weird listening to Ed instead of Gary last night. Makes you realize how good Gary is--not that Ed was bad at all, but there seemed to be more awkward silence and forced patter than there is with Gary. Howie was a little quieter, too . . .

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, both sides are summed up succinctly and excellently in today's Faith and Fear in Flushing.

[metirish]

Great read, I especially enjoyed the second article Just a Little Patience , the part dealing with Gerald Williams promotion had just the right amount of wit, thanks for the link, don't think I've ever read from that site before.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Gotta say I'm disappointed Greg is now syndicated by the IFSPA.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Wright btw ranks 10th out 10 among qualified NL third sackers in fielding percentage, zone rating and range factor.

[Guest Rotblatt]

ew. I was happier not knowing that.

[Guest Edgy DC]

We only apply negative fielding stats to whipping boys, not starchildren.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Yeah, what Edgy said!

Oh, wait . . . Was that a burn?

[Guest Edgy DC]

Just sayin' is all. Mr. Cairo was ninth out of ten qualifying AL secondbasemen last year and if I hear one more "gold glove-quality" label applied to him again I'm going to shriek like a whole troop of brownies.

NAME	ZR
Adam Kennedy, Ana	.847
Mark Bellhorn, Bos	.843
Orlando Hudson, Tor	.830
Ronnie Belliard, Cle	.824
Brian Roberts, Bal	.823
Marco Scutaro, Oak	.799
Alfonso Soriano, Tex	.799
Miguel Cairo, NYY	.795
Bret Boone, Sea	.790

Just about every secondbaseman in New York was better -- many of whom are/were whipping boys and/or have "Freakin'" as a middle name. Of course, Matsui wasn't one of them.

NAME	GP	GS	INN	ZR
Homer Bush, NYY	4	2	23.0	1.000
Jose Reyes, NYM	43	41	352.0	.866
Jeff Keppinger, NYM	32	27	257.2	.844
Joe McEwing, NYM	34	15	162.1	.841
Ty Wigginton, NYM/Pit	25	22	183.2	.831
Enrique Wilson, NYY	80	64	564.2	.825
Ricky Gutierrez, Bos/NYM	32	19	196.0	.808
Miguel Cairo, NYY	113	96	856.0	.795
Danny Garcia, NYM	44	40	341.1	.781
Kazuo Matsui, NYM	3	3	24.0	.750

[Willets Point]

="Edgy DC"]Just sayin' is all. Mr. Cairo was ninth out of ten qualifying AL secondbasemen last year and if I hear one more "gold glove-quality" label applied to him again I'm going to shriek like a whole troop of brownies.

I'd really like to see that.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Well, our DER is average this year--15th in the majors--so I'm not too worried about our defense overall, although I WAS wondering why it wasn't better, given Cameron, Beltran, Dougie, Reyes, and a renewed Floyd. We were 9th last year, after all . . .

Anyway, I'm prepared to cut Wright a lot of slack. I will also blame his low defensive stats on Reyes' extraordinary range. Even though Reyes is next-to-last in ZR in the NL and third-from last in RF.

Defensive stats will bring me nothing but pain . . . And yet:

Dougie's second best in ZR & 7th in RF.

Cliff's third in RF & ZR. Beltran's 3rd in ZR & 5th in RF.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I don't worry about Wright's range so much either (tho the "just gets by his glove" shots are plenty)... more about the dropsies and the runs-into-Piazzas, and the but-Blue!-I-caught-it!s. Anyway, I think maybe if he doesn't show steady improvement, and at this point there'
s no reason to believe he won't, perhaps he's a guy who'll play first base later in life.

[metsmarathon]

david wright is a better third baseman this year than that Arod guy...

[metirish]

Klapisch gets all misty eyed over the series..

]By BOB KLAPISCH SPORTS COLUMNIST With eight-plus years of weariness on our shoulders, we slog to the doorstep of one more Subway Series. Haven't we been here, done that? Indeed - 50 times since 1997, including the 2000 World Series. Yankees vs. Mets is old and tired, a plague upon any sane fan. Deliverance is what we should be praying for. Let this be the last Subway Series until someday - it won't be this year - these teams legitimately confront each other in October. Until then, we've suffered enough. Here's why the gimmickry must come to an end: Because don't you just know ESPN will prattle on about the Mike Piazza-Roger Clemens blood feud (which has long since expired) one more time? It'll be used as state's evidence that this rivalry is alive and well. We know better. Because neither the Yankees nor the Mets are playing particularly well this week. Because Joe Torre gets along better with Willie Randolph than he did with Bobby Valentine. Because Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez won't go head-to-head. Because Tom Glavine (5.06 ERA) and Sean Henn (10.29) will. Because Chien-Ming Wang, the Yankees' best pitcher, will miss the series. Because a legion of Mets fans will inevitably end up chanting "Yankees [stink]" at some point during the weekend. They're no less myopic than Red Sox fans who sound the same war cry at Fenway. Not to be outdone, the Bleacher Bums will unleash their own brand of idiocy, turning against their Stadium brethren as they chant, "Box seats [bleep]." Because the Yankees will see Miguel Cairo in a Mets uniform and wonder how (and why) they ever let him go. Because the Mets will be reminded they actually believed Felix Heredia could help them. Because the two Matsuis will be asked (again) how it feels to be playing against each other, even if Kaz is on the DL. Because there are no new rivalries. Even the old ones (Pedro versus Jorge Posada) are beyond the statute of limitations. Because nothing will ever match the drama in the Mets' dugout on July 9, 2000 - the night after Roger Clemens beaned Mike Piazza. Until the last seconds before taking the field, the Mets debated whether to retaliate against Derek Jeter and/or Bernie Williams. Finally, just as starter Mike Hampton was leaving the dugout on his way to the mound, he decided to comply with Valentine's edict that no Yankee position player would be targeted. Because interleague play has run its course. It's time to return the schedule to its old-school roots, where division rivals slug it out all summer. While the Mets and Yankees are having their one millionth reunion, fans around the country are being forced to witness Tigers-Diamondbacks, Blue Jays-Nationals and Royals-Rockies. We wonder if Bud Selig will be waiting up for those scores. Because The Big Unit, who pitches Sunday, just ain't what he used to be. Because Carlos Beltran, a nice player, isn't yet what the Mets thought he'd be. Because Pedro, who starts tonight, isn't as easy for Yankee fans to hate anymore. He might have been a jerk in a Red Sox uniform, easy to lump in with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, but he's a better person now that he's a Met. We guarantee Pedro won't headhunt. Because John Franco and Al Leiter are gone (a blessing, most Mets fans will say) which means there aren't any real New Yorkers as major players left in this series. Because the unique thrill of seeing the Yankees' best against the Mets' best is gone. That was the initial lure, watching Mariano Rivera's cutter against Mike Piazza's massive hack, and the precious inside-out quality of Derek Jeter's swing against Leiter's slider. But those matchups have all been blurred by time and familiarity. Because the Yankees will be thinking about a three-game series with the Orioles next week. Because the Mets will be thinking about the Phillies, who come to town on Tuesday. Or at least they should be. Because everyone will be cursing Sunday night's 8 p.m. start. Because David Cone isn't around anymore. If anyone could appreciate how special these games used to be, it was him. Because Doc and Darryl are gone, too. It used to be fun seeing these ex-Mets stars in Pinstripes. Used to be - until that story line got old, as well. Because Mike Cameron will tease the Yankees all weekend with his .400-plus on-base percentage, his .300 batting average and his still-quick jumps in the outfield. This is the guy the Bombers need down the stretch. And there's no way the Mets are sending him to the Bronx. Because there's no race even for a new stadium. Both teams will be in their new homes by 2009. Because George Steinbrenner isn't planning to be around. Too bad. The Man has lost his fastball, but he still makes Stadium employees jittery, and forces the press corps into a paparazzi watch in the parking lot. Because this isn't really a Subway Series. It's three games in the Bronx. Because Piazza isn't what he used to be. Because Tom Gordon would be the perfect fit in the Mets' bullpen. But don't hold your breath. Because the Yankees are just so bored by the whole thing. Because, for once, they're right. E-mail: klapisch@northjersey.com