It's the Red Thread !!

[Edgy MD]

If you do not understand "what the thesis even is," then you do not want to understand, as it is stated clearly in single declarative prose sentences multiple times.

 

Out of 32,768 possible scenarios, there are 15,330 where the Mets win as many or more games than both the Reds and Diamondbacks.

 

This amounts to a 46.78...% likelihood, which is, indeed, greater than the quoted 43% figure. Do you still claim to not understand even what I am asserting?

[Benjamin Grimm]

If it was a one-game race, meaning the Mets were one game ahead of both the Reds and the Diamondbacks on Sunday morning, there are three games to be played, and eight possible outcomes:

1. Mets win, Reds win, Diamondbacks win

2. Mets win, Reds win, Diamondbacks lose

3. Mets win, Reds lose, Diamondbacks win

4. Mets win, Reds lose, Diamondbacks lose

5. Mets lose, Reds win, Diamondbacks win

6. Mets lose, Reds win, Diamondbacks lose

7. Mets lose, Reds lose, Diamondbacks win

8. Mets lose, Reds lose, Diamondbacks lose

Numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, and 8 put the Mets in the playoffs, which makes their chance 62.5 percent. (Five out of eight.)

With five games remaining, and 32,768 possibilities, it's seemingly more complicated, but the same rules apply.

[Edgy MD]

As I indeed wrote above.

[MFS62]

This amounts to a 46.78...% likelihood, which is, indeed, greater than the quoted 43% figure. Do you still claim to not understand even what I am asserting?

 

As I indeed noted above.

Later

[Centerfield]

You guys are mathin at a level that makes my head hurt.

Simpler math. 0-0, through 3.

[Frayed Knot]

The Skenes/Greene matchup sees the Pirates push the first run of the game across in the top of the 4th

And speaking of the Pirates and Reds and playoff odds and all that, this all makes me remember that I posted a similar analytical type thread 26 years ago* (almost exactly) on the same topic and involving several of the same teams.

So as we fade back to 1999, the Mets had just lost 7 straight and 8 of 9 (mostly to ATL & PHI) coming down the stretch to find themselves two games out of the WC race with just three to play. My angle at that time was that out situation wasn't quite as bad as it looked because, unlike this year where we have to stay ahead of two teams on our tail, then we only had to catch one of the two teams in front of us: the Astros & Reds. It was still odds against us as we had to be at least two games better but at least it was over either/or rather than both so that upped the odds. The winner of HOU & CIN would get the automatic in while the loser had to merely finish ahead of the Mets in that one WC only era.

Houston wound up winning 2 of 3 that final weekend, but Cincy went 1-2 so when the first pitch to Piazza** (bases loaded/one out) in our final regular season game went to the backstop and allowed Melvin Mora to score, the Mets had their sweep of the Pirates forcing the trip to Cincinnati for the Leiter gem in the one-game win-or-go-home playoff the next day.

* so this would have been on the old forum, not technically this one

** and Mike with the look on his face seeming to say, 'But I was supposed to be the hero here and you didn't even give me a chance'

[Frayed Knot]

2-0 Pitt, end of 7

[Edgy MD]

The Bucwads! Buccamundos! Let's go, Bucz!

Bucminster Fuller scholarships for everybody!

[Frayed Knot]

Top 9, 2 outs, bases full of Buccos ... and a 1st pitch fly out.

Still 2-1, going for the close out.

[Frayed Knot]

B9: Dennis Santana on the mound

Stewart - K

Stephenson - HR

Tie Game

[Centerfield]

Awful.

[Edgy MD]

Well, that was a reversal of fortune.

[Frayed Knot]

B9: Dennis Santana on the mound

Stewart - K

Stephenson - HR

Tie Game

 

Followed by Single - K - K

Going to the clown car rules.

Reds two runs tonight: inside-the-park HR (8th), HR (9th)

[Frayed Knot]

- a WP to the leadoff hitter sends the ghost runner to 3rd, but a foul pop-up fails to score him

- RBI 2B

- K

- GO

So just the one run. Often that's not enough in this era.

[ashie62]

Trillo whiffed

Pirates are likely screwed

[kcmets]

avi wuz here Edited September 25, 2025 by kcmets

[Frayed Knot]

B10: Mureta in to pitch

- Noelvi Marte -- Single, 1st & 3rd

- Gavin Lux -- Sac Fly, Tie Game, runner on 1st, 1 out

[Frayed Knot]

B10: Mureta in to pitch

- Noelvi Marte -- Single, 1st & 3rd

- Gavin Lux -- Sac Fly, Tie Game, runner on 1st, 1 out

 

- Spenser Steer -- K

- Elly De La Cruz -- Single, 1st & 2nd, 2 outs

K ... and they're going to the 11th

Edited September 25, 2025 by Frayed Knot

[MFS62]

Mureta es muerta.

But the Bucs aren't.

Tied 3-3 after 10.

Later

[ashie62]

Pirates made it to the 11th, did not expect that

[Frayed Knot]

Leadoff double for the Bucs scores a run as the batter and ghost runner switch places/

And then the new runner gets doubled off 2nd on a liner to 2B

4-3 Pirates but 2 out/bases empty.

Going to bottom 11, P 4 - R 3

[Frayed Knot]

K to start B 11

- Will Benson hitting: Walk, 1st & 2nd, 1 out

- Matt McLain: FO, no runners advance

- TJ Freidl as the Reds last hope: BB (from a 1-2 count), bases loaded

- Noelvi Marte as the new best last hope: GO TO 3RD

Pirates Win!!!!

[Edgy MD]

PYROOTS!!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Okay, so if the Dodgers beat Arizona, the day will be a wash. More or less.

[Frayed Knot]

btw, the CIN/PIT game on Thursday is a 12:40 start and even the ARZ/LAD tilt is a rare day game in Phoenix (3:40 our time) so both those games will be over before ours even starts as we're back to 7:40 first pitch and local TV tomorrow.

[MFS62]

All together now.

That old Forbes Field cheer.

Beat 'em, Bucs!

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

Weather delay in Cincinnati. Weather reports indicate that it should stop raining at around 2 p.m.

[whippoorwill]

THey showed Skenes sweeping water in the bullpen

[Centerfield]

Reds and Pirates underway. 0-0 in the 2nd inning.

If you had told me before the series that the Pirates would take 2 of 3 I would have been thrilled.

But dammit that's thinking small! Go Bucs!!!

[Benjamin Grimm]