This Team Is Not Clutch

[Centerfield]

I think bad luck is the only logical answer. But the bad luck of the 2025 Mets is almost impossible to comprehend.

When Jonah Tong was getting knocked around in that Cubs game, I remember thinking how unlucky we were that none of these ground balls found gloves. They didn't seem to be hit very hard, but just ended up in the right place. On the flip side, Pete smoked the hardest hit ball hit all year in game 162 in Miami, and that ball was an F7. Well the data tells us it wasn't just our imagination. The Mets were #2 in hard hit rate, while the Cubs were 20th.

So let's play out this string of bad luck.

Hi. We're the 2025 Mets. We are elite in all facets of hitting the ball hard. We're either 1 or 2 in terms of exit velo, hard hit rate, barrel percentage. We consistently hit the ball harder than any other team.

Wow! Fantastic! You must be one of the top offenses in MLB. Certainly top 2 or 3 right?

Well, actually, we got a bit unlucky. We were 6th in team OPS. Two teams who aren't in the top 10 of hard hit % had a higher OPS than us.

What? How is that possible?

Well despite hitting rockets all over the field, we ended up 20th in BABIP. We were a bit unlucky.

Ok. Well 6th best offense is not terrible.

Ninth actually. Despite the high relatively high OPS, we were 9th in runs scored. Some back luck.

Ok. Well being in the top 10 in runs scored is usually good enough to make the playoffs...

Usually yes! Everyone else in the top 10 made it, but not us! What are the chances?

Did you have a bad run differential?

+51. Good for 12th in MLB. We were beat out for a playoff spot by the Reds, a team that was 25 runs worse than us in run differential

Ouch. I guess you lost some close games?

We were 5-13 in one run games in the second half. We were 2-13 in our last 15 games. What bad luck!

This is incredible. How much bad luck can one team have?

Did we mention we were 0-70 when trailing after 8? The only team in MLB to not win such a game...

[smg58]

I don't know if it's incomprehensible. We had worse "luck" in 2020. It does happen. And it's worth pointing out that basically the same team minus Soto fared significantly better in clutch situations last year.

A number of things could have broken differently, and it would only have taken one to put us in the playoffs. But I wouldn't expect sympathy from fans of teams with lower payrolls. The question we need to ask (and answer) moving forward is why the money put into this team didn't eliminate the need for luck, at least in the regular season.

[Centerfield]

I'm not sure how our luck was worse in 2020. (and if it was, 2020 was a small sample size, so certainly luck plays a larger part).

I'm not saying anything about clutch for the bad luck piece.

Bad Luck Event #1.

I'm saying, a team that hits the ball harder and more consistently than any other team in baseball, should be the top offensive team. But because of a low BABIP (bad luck), we only ended up 6th in OPS.

Bad Luck Event #2.

Then through more bad luck (grouping of hits? timeliness?), a team that was 6th in OPS ended up 9th in runs scored. Again, not terrible luck individually, but collectively, through two separate instances of back luck, the team that hit the ball the hardest ended up 9th in runs scored. If luck had gone the other way, a team that was 6th in overall OPS could very well have ended up 3rd or 4th in runs scored.

Bad Luck Event #3.

But even with the prior bad luck, 9th in runs scored is usually enough to get you into the playoffs, and was for everyone else, except us. And I get that our pitching was bad, but overall, we had a +51 run differential. But we got beat by Cincinnati, a team with a +26 run differential. Because of our terrible record in one run games. Yet again, more bad luck.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I really think that if this didn't happen, the Mets would have clinched a playoff berth two weeks before the season ended.

[The Hot Corner]

I know someone had to take the fall for the Mets exasperating fall over the summer, but the hard hit rate makes it look like Eric Chavez & Jeremy Barnes got a raw deal. If your hitters have high barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage, then obviously they were doing something right.

The pitching on the other hand, was disastrous from late June to the end of the season.

I believe Ben may be right. Had Senga remained healthy (and continued his stellar pitching) things would likely have ended differently. However, virtually all teams suffer significant injuries, the best teams somehow find a way to overcome them (most of the time).