The Curious Case of Billy Amick

[Centerfield]

Mets 1B Billy Amick is a masher. 38 HRs in 122 games. He’s a typical all or nothing guy. 

.222 - .328 - .520  (.848 OPS)  This is over 3 leagues this year.

Amick strikes out a lot.  161 Ks in 533 PAs.  So basically we hope he can be a right handed Kyle Schwarber.  A guy who will never hit for average.

But wait.  
 

Check out Billy Amick in 2025:

.307 - .417 - .450  (.867 OPS)

And only 4 HRs! This is over 266 plate appearances.  So while the sample size is small, it’s enough to be meaningful.  
 

I haven’t followed minor league numbers for long, but I cant imagine somebody goes from being a hit for average slap hitter to suddenly mashing 38 HRs.  
 

Anyone know more about this kid?  Maybe the BA is not a lost cause.  

 

 

 

[MFS62]

Was his K rate in 2025 low enough for us to hope for a happy medium?.

Later

[Centerfield]

70 Ks in 266 PA in 2025. (26%)
 

I mean yeah. Strikeouts are the big thing. Everything I read says his strikeout rate in the minors is way too high to be a realistic prospect. 

[Frayed Knot]

The only thing I can add is that he was out of the Twins organization which has had a reputation of trying to mold all their batters into slashing oppo-field hitters*, Not sure if they're still doing that today but, if so, that's where Amick was for that '25 season which might partially explain how a 21 y/o goes from a HR every 66 PAs to one every 14 in the course of one year. Kind of funny how the OPS's were pretty close to the same [867 in '25 / 848 in '26] during those two seasons, just took much different paths to getting there: a .143 IsoP in '25 to .298 the next year (150-160 is about ML Avg)

 

 

* even when that hitter is named and built like David Ortiz. Ortiz played six (partial) seasons in Minnesota from age 21 thru 25 where in about 1,700 PAs (or about three full season's worth) he hit total 58 HRs. Now that's not No power but they then released the 26 y/o w/the career 108 OPS+ that winter. Picked up by Boston and unleashed from his Twins mandate, he turned in 208 HRs and a 156 OPS+ over his first five seasons there and was top-5 MVP in all of them.

[Frayed Knot]

btw, super disappointed to find that we weren't talking about Madchen Amick.

 

We'd need to use much different statistical measurements to analyze this one.

[MFS62]

2 hours ago, Centerfield said:

70 Ks in 266 PA in 2025. (26%)
 

I mean yeah. Strikeouts are the big thing. Everything I read says his strikeout rate in the minors is way too high to be a realistic prospect. 

That 25 or so % seems to be acceptable for sluggers these days. The question to me is whether that means they just swing at everything or have a genuine hole in their swing that major league pitchers could exploit.

Later

[The Hot Corner]

5 hours ago, MFS62 said:

That 25 or so % seems to be acceptable for sluggers these days. The question to me is whether that means they just swing at everything or have a genuine hole in their swing that major league pitchers could exploit.

Later

Whether he lacks plate discipline and swings at everything or has a major hole that pitchers can exploit, the pitchers have found a way to deal with him.  I would expect the strike out rate to be higher and the homers to drop off against major league pitching.  

 

Personally, I am tired of watching a bunch of guys swinging for the fences and striking out over 25% and posting sub .300 OBP (ala Vientos, MJ Melendez, Baty, Mauricio) throw in Semien's sub .300 OBP and you can see why the team hits so many solo HRs.  

Getting on base and moving runners along by putting the ball in play helps to promote an offense.  A collection of .235 or worse hitters with sub .300 OBP is a sure way to build a stagnant offense. 

[Edgy MD]

It would certainly be tasty if he could find a space between those two extremes.

.265 / .373 / .485 / .858

[Edgy MD]

20 hours ago, Frayed Knot said:

btw, super disappointed to find that we weren't talking about Madchen Amick.

Billy is not related Madchen, but he is the son of one-time NASCAR racer Lyndon Amick, whose driving career ended when his reserve unit was called up and he deployed to Afghanistan.

 

The family racing legacy seems to go back several generations with their own family team.  Lyndon's dad was also a "Bill," and his uncle was also a Lyndon, and that Lyndon was sex on wheels.  If he wasn't the inspiration for Reese Bobby, well, he sure should have been:

[Centerfield]

2 hours ago, The Hot Corner said:

I would expect the strike out rate to be higher and the homers to drop off against major league pitching.  

And that’s really the key to why he’s not a prospect. While a 30% K rate isn’t a dealbreaker in the bigs, it’s almost unheard of to have a 30% K rate in the minors and then be a big leaguer. 
 

The high strikeout out guys in the bigs (Schwarber, Wood) had much lower numbers in the minors. 
 

Still. You see the 38 HR in 2026 and the .307 average in 2025 and just wonder what it would be like if he could put it all together. 
 

I mean. I guess he’d be Pete Alonso. 

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

That's some damn good research, @Edgy MD!