Post Season Picture coming into focus

[Frayed Knot]

Braves win today, with he help of a HR plus 3 RBIs by Mike Yastrzemski, and, with it, clinch the NL East. They'll almost certainly be the 3rd best division winner meaning no early BYE round for them. Instead they'll get the worst WC team in the  best-of-three first round series with all games in Atlanta.  The last time a title was clinched with clutch September hitting by someone named Yastrzemski Lyndon Johnson was still in the White House. 

With the Cubs, Phils, and Padres all winning today, it's looking like those will be the three WC teams so the worst of them plays the Braves while the other two play each other. The DBacks are winning vs the Yanx right now but, at best, they'll go into the final week four full games behind the Phils and five each in back of SDP and CHC.

 

The Rays won this afternoon so if the Yanx lose (down 8 - 4 in the 8th) that'll put TBR six up with seven to play. Now four of those seven are head-to-head [at NYY Tuesday (x2), Wed, Thu] so the Yanx essentially have to run the table while the Rays do the opposite.

 

Meanwhile BOTH HOU & TEX lost on Sunday leaving TEX with a one game lead. TEX has NYM x3 than @ MIN x3. HOU finishes up @ SEA and @ ATH (3x each) 

CLE (+1 in the Central when the day started) won today while the ChiSox are just in the 3rd inning of a lengthy rain delayed tilt vs DET. Wins by both would make it more likely the AK Central loser would snag the 3rd WC slot over the non-winner in the West although it's still possible that Toronto gets hot and snags the 3rd WC slot making it four AL East teams in the tourney.

[Gwreck]

Perhaps the outcomes this year will help spur changes to the currently-dumb playoff bracket system.

#1 overall seed Tampa is going to get a bye to the division series, but instead of getting the privilege of playing the lowest ranked team, they’ll play the winner of BOS @ NYY, also known as the the second and third-best teams in their league.  (Positive news for Tampa:  they probably won’t be playing those games at 1 PM on a weekday).

The Brewers have a 1.5 game lead over the Dodgers (plus the tiebreaker) for the #1 seed in the NL.  There, #1 is actually desirable since that seed would avoid the Braves* in the DS round.

*Assuming the Braves defeat whichever wild card team they face.

[Gwreck]

Boston has clinched a playoff spot. They cannot catch the Yankees for the #4 seed.

Thus they are now incentivized to lose every remaining game because (a) they can’t improve their seeding; (b) they could improve their draft position with a lesser record; and (c) if they lose enough, they could fall to the #6 seed and would not face the Yankees in the wild card series (nor Tampa in the Division Series).

Also complicating things is that their series against the Cubs this weekend (a) is very likely to matter a lot to the Cubs; and (b) could be disrupted by bad weather in Boston.

[Frayed Knot]

On 9/20/2026 at 8:46 PM, Gwreck said:

Perhaps the outcomes this year will help spur changes to the currently-dumb playoff bracket system.

I still want to see division winners rewarded for their regular season. If folks want to seed playoffs strictly by regular season record then just blow up the divisions and stick them all into one 15-team league and seed them accordingly. A middle course, I suppose, would be re-seeding after the WC round: Tampa plays the worst record still alive while the other Bye team (whoever wins the TEX/HOU/CHW/CLE dogpile) is matched against the better WC round survivor. That distinction could be meaningful in some years or marginal at best in others.

But as long as the set-up involves a schedule with massive inter-league play (approx 30% of each team's sked) and small divisions which in turn accounts for less than 40% of games within your division, then having this kind of 'imbalance' where one or more non-winning Wild Card teams end up with  better records than one or more division winner are not going to be rare occurrences. iow, I blame the in-season set-up more than the playoff shuffle.

 

What I suspect MLB will do is ride with the current format until whatever expansion/restructuring comes down the pike at the end of Manfred's term (2029?). Just keep in mind that if they opt for an eight division/four team set-up then your complaint isn't going to be solved but likely made much worse. Of course by then 24 of the 32 teams will qualify for the playoffs so it'll hardly matter. The playoffs will last two months culminating in the World Series to be held each year in Hiram Bithorn Stadium and wrap up just in time for Thanksgiving day weekend.

[Cowtipper]

The White Sox?!?!?!? The same team that lost 121 games two years ago and 102 last year? Wow, never would've expected that one. 

Also crazy that the Rangers could make it. They're at exactly .500 right now and, more astonishingly, are first in the division. 

[Frayed Knot]

Rays beat the Yanx 6 - 1 tonight (Yanx won an afternoon half of the split DH) but one win was all Tampa needed to clinch the AL East title.

[Gwreck]

5 hours ago, Frayed Knot said:

I still want to see division winners rewarded for their regular season. 

A lot of different points being discussed here...some I agree with, some not so much.

5 hours ago, Frayed Knot said:

I still want to see division winners rewarded for their regular season. If folks want to seed playoffs strictly by regular season record then just blow up the divisions and stick them all into one 15-team league and seed them accordingly. A middle course, I suppose, would be re-seeding after the WC round: Tampa plays the worst record still alive while the other Bye team (whoever wins the TEX/HOU/CHW/CLE dogpile) is matched against the better WC round survivor. That distinction could be meaningful in some years or marginal at best in others.

I don't know who those people are who want to blow up divisions but I'm in fierce disagreement with that.

The "middle course" you reference here is what was referencing above.  Because this year it is meaningful, with the Yankees clearly the second-best team in the league (and Boston the third-best).  A quick check of standings from the last 5 years (i.e., the time since MLB went to 12 teams in the playoffs), this will be the 4th time that a team with the #4 seed actually has the second-best record in its league, better than each of the two other division winners. 

5 hours ago, Frayed Knot said:

But as long as the set-up involves a schedule with massive inter-league play (approx 30% of each team's sked) and small divisions which in turn accounts for less than 40% of games within your division, then having this kind of 'imbalance' where one or more non-winning Wild Card teams end up with better records than one or more division winner are not going to be rare occurrences. iow, I blame the in-season set-up more than the playoff shuffle.

I don't see the support for linking the results to increased interleague play.  If anything, now that each team is playing almost the identical interleague schedule (with only a 3 game difference) it is essentially a constant.  Previously, the interleague play could skew results.  Imagine the 2026 season with the NL East teams playing the AL East teams in interleague (a big disadvantage versus the other divisions).

 

[Frayed Knot]

On the first part I'm merely saying that one 'solution' to the issue of rewarding better teams is to seed strictly by record. I wasn't suggesting that You were suggesting this as a fix but I do hear it at times (mostly in football but for MLB as well). And while no one directly says, 'Hey, let's get rid of divisions', but if winning a division has no reward to it -- as things currently stand no AL West team would even qualify for post-season under a 'strictly by record' scenario -- then why even have divisions.

 

On the second part: the reason I cited IL play as a factor is because when every team's schedule is 30% against clubs playing  for a different prize then the type of imbalance we see can get exaggerated. So this season has not only has an imbalance within the AL (best three teams all in the East) but also an NL vs AL imbalance* and the combination of those two factors make the possibility of barely .500 (or even sub-.500) division winners more likely.  So while, yes, each AL division is now playing NL clubs at an (almost) equal rate as each other division, the AL is consistently and collectively getting beat by NL clubs which gives us the opposite effect of the 'Rising tide lifts all boats' scenario.

 

My only problem with the 'middle ground' of reseeding once the first round is over is that you've got to justify changing seeds mid-stream. In this year's case HOU/TEX would go from being the 3rd seed in round one to the 6th after/if they advance as they're likely to finish with a worse record than all three WC teams. And if we want to give this year's West winner a 6th seed from the git go then we're back to not rewarding division winners. So while it's not always perfect, I'm comfortable sticking with the idea that if you want the best slots then win your division, and if you don't win your division then you have to deal with the potentially rockier road ahead.

 

 

* NL has won nearly 54% of IL games this year. That gap isn't as high as it was earlier in the season but it's still a factor.

[MFS62]

Playoffs? No interest.

The Mets  aren't in them, so it will be Passover again this year for me. I don't think I'll watch a single inning.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

So at the start of business today ...

The Padres, winners of 16 of 19 since Sept 4th, had muscled their way into the #1WC slot one game ahead of the Cubs who are in turn one game up on the Phillies who are two games in front of the Desert Snakes.

But business has already started today. The Cubs finish their season at Fenway but impending weather caused them to move Sunday's game to today* as part of a D/N DH, one which saw Boston win 4 - 3 in the opener. So mark the Cubs an extra half game away from the Padres and 1/2 closer to Philly. The Cubs, and obviously SDP in front of them, Have already clinched WC spots so it's just seeding concerns for those two. Philly has yet to secure meaningful October baseball status.

Padres host the DBacks; Phillies host the Rays (with nothing specific to play for); and the Cubs, as mentioned, are in Boston and will likely have two results up prior to either of the other teams posting even one [Game 2 in Boston starts at 6PM].

 

 

Over in the AL, both CLE and CHW secured spots as neither can be caught by HOU or TEX.  So those two Central teams fight it out for which is Division Champ and which will be WC #3 as both are miles behind #2WC BoSox.

The Guardians, with a one game lead on the ChiSox but NOT the H-2-H tie-breaker advantage, will spend the final weekend in Kansas City while the White Sox host the Rockies. Both teams have got to be thinking 3 - 0

 

And that leaves just TEX & HOU to fight it out for which is the tallest midget in the AL West circus and which goes home after Sunday. Currently they're deadlocked at 79 - 80 with the Astros holding the tie-breaker.

The Astros play in West Sacramento while the Rangers head to Minneapolis. 

 

 

 

* Orioles at Yanx also to play two games today and no game on Sunday.

 

[Gwreck]

Point of order:  it was the Saturday NYY game that was moved to the doubleheader today.

Apparently there is some consideration being given to moving the Sunday Boston/Cubs game to Tampa.  If rain is an issue on Sunday, the BAL/NYY game can just be cancelled as irrelevant.

[Gwreck]

And now the Cubs/Red Sox have officially moved their game to an alternate site (Tampa) in order to avoid a Monday game.  Seems like something that could have been done in 2024…

[Frayed Knot]

So the Phils (vs Tampa) didn't move the time of their game today, I guess they figured they're far enough 'in -land' to avoid the worst of this storm even as NYC and Boston were getting swamped. The 7:15 start was pushed back until 7:50 due to some lingering rain but they're underway now ... and Tampa immediately jumps out to a 3- 0 lead in top o' the 1st. Aaron Nola has been put in charge of saving their season.

Not that the Phils can eliminate themselves tonight but they can sure put a spot in jeopardy. One game up on Arizona but without the tie-breaker in their favor, they need to be at least one game better than Arizona on Sat + Sun. Snakes are at home vs San Diego and will start within the hour. The DBacks were five games behind the Phils just eight days ago but have run off six straight wins since while the Phils have been tripping over their own dicks.

And the Phils go down 1 - 2 - 3 in bottom one.

[Frayed Knot]

Phils have used five pitchers to get through five innings ... and all that's gotten them is a 7 - 0 deficit. They might wind up pitching a position player in this ultra-important game just to have some arms around and at least semi-fresh for tomorrow's even more important game. The other problem, besides their pitching right now, is that they've scored two runs in the last 32 innings.

DBacks lead 2 - 1 in the 3rd inning of their game vs SDP

[Frayed Knot]

10 - 0 thru 6

Philly phans in the stands really must be enjoying this one. They're probably getting ready to start chucking batteries at their players ... car batteries!!  Things could be worse, though, they could be getting rained on. Oh wait, they are!!

Padres have taken a 3 - 2 lead

[Gwreck]

This won’t matter unless Arizona wins another game.  They’re down 10-4 to the Padres after 6.

The good news is that San Diego clinches the #4 seed with a win so they won’t have anything to play for Sunday.  

[Frayed Knot]

So, DUH!, Phils wind up losing (12 - 1 was the final) but Diamondbacks lose too meaning Philly needs a win OR a DBacks loss to clinch the final WC slot. So 75% chance for Philly, 25% for ARZ  

Phils did Not wind up using a position player to pitch but they did use seven actual hurlers, one inning from starter Nola plus six relievers splitting the other eight. They'll go with Zach Wheeler today (making him unavailable for playoff Round 1 if they get there) and hope he can give them some length and, y'know, a win.

 

Houston AND Texas both won on Saturday, so they enter the final day in an 80 - 81 dead heat. H-2-H edge goes to the Astros so they, like the Phils, have a 75% chance of making it by needing a win OR a Rangers loss. So will we have a .500 ALW division winner or a sub-.500 one? Those are your only choices and, once again, remember this when fans and writers start talking about what great four-team divisions they can design after the next expansion.

 

Cleveland won while the White Sox lost making the Guardians the AL Central champs which in turn locks the ChiSox into the #3 WC team.

 

[Frayed Knot]

So the Phils finally won a game down the stretch here and snagged the final NL WC slot in doing so. They tried very, very hard to blow a four game lead with five to play but couldn't even accomplish that correctly.

In the AL the Astros are about to win [9 - 0 Houston heading into bottom 9th in West Sacramento] but it doesn't matter because the Rangers already lost so the 'stros are division winners even IF they have the worst 9th inning ever (and they didn't: A's went down 1 - 2 - 3). What the Houston win does do is avoid the embarrassing case of a sub-.500 division winner ... even if having an exact .500 division winner is scarcely better.

 

So NL seeding:

Brewers #1, Dodgers #2 so both sit out the 1st round

Braves #3 vs #6 Phillies in a best of three all in Georgia while the #5 seed Cubs head to #4 San Diego  

 

In the AL:

Rays #1 and Cleveland #2 get the Byes*

#3 Astros host #6 White Sox and the #4 Yanx host #5 Red Sox (that one might draw some minor interest) 

 

Exact times of games will be announced once the commissioner asks the Yanx what time is most convenient for them. Then the other games can be jiggered around that.

[MFS62]

4 minutes ago, Frayed Knot said:

the #4 Yanx host #5 Red Sox (that one might draw some minor interest) 

 

Each game will be presented like its game 7 of the World Series. 

Later

[Gwreck]

1 hour ago, Frayed Knot said:

Exact times of games will be announced once the commissioner asks the Yanx what time is most convenient for them. Then the other games can be jiggered around that.

They were already announced a while ago,  before the final races were even decided.  And were most certainly decided at the convenience of NBC rather than any teams (let alone attendees).

PHI at ATL at 2

CHW at HOU at 5

BOS at NYY at 8

CHC at SDP at 10.

[Centerfield]

Have we all picked a postseason mistress?  
 

I’ll be rooting for the Red Sox this week, but that’s because of their opponent. In the NL I’ll be rooting for whoever plays the Braves. 

[Gwreck]

Postseason Rooting Hierarchy:

1. Brewers.  Great fanbase.  Longest pennant drought of any team in the postseason.  Franchise that puts the lie to claims that small markets can’t compete and win.  No known offenses against the Mets other than when they were deliberately throwing at Jesse Winker a couple years ago.  Also the victims in a great Mets postseason moment so we can root for them now in solidarity.

2. Rays.  A level below the Brewers because they’re a newer team, not in the NL, and don’t have the same great fanbase.  Otherwise very similarly situated.  Bonus point for taking the AL East.

3. Guardians.  Also generally meeting the above criteria but they’re not as good this year.  Bonus point to them for having their pitchcom volume too loud, thus helping the Mets sweep them this August.

4. White Sox.  Comeback stories good.  Have always felt some kinship to a team in a two-team city that is actually more authentically a representative of its environs rather than the other annoyingly more-heralded team. 

5. Padres.  Not terribly unlike the Brewers, but I’m still annoyed about the 2022 wild card series.  They massively increased payroll, fans have been selling out the stadium for multiple years.  That’s how it’s supposed to work.

6. Cubs.  Falls a little lower since they did have that World Series title 10 years ago.

7. Red Sox.  Eh.  Didn’t distinguish themselves this year or in last year’s playoffs by not doing more to defeat the Yankees.

8. Astros.  Teams with .500 records in the playoffs are hard to root for.  The bad options come next.

9. Dodgers.  Surprising that they could come in this high but that’s a testament to how execrable the remaining options are.

10. Phillies.  Can’t root for division rivals.   (Maybe we wouldn’t dislike the Marlins as much but then again they don’t really make the playoffs).   Entering the playoffs back-assward and probably going to lose quickly anyway so they don’t fall as low as… 

11. Braves.  See Phillies.  I guess they got rid of Ozuna but the racist chant remains.  Do they still fail to sell out playoff games?  Just a bad fanbase.

12. Yankees.  Never an acceptable choice.  I guess we’d root for the Yankees if they were matched up against the Al-Qaeda all-stars but seeing as that’s not the matchup this time…

 

[MFS62]

5 minutes ago, Gwreck said:

Postseason Rooting Hierarchy:

9. Dodgers.  Surprising that they could come in this high but that’s a testament to how execrable the remaining options are.

10. Phillies.  Can’t root for division rivals.   (Maybe we wouldn’t dislike the Marlins as much but then again they don’t really make the playoffs).   Entering the playoffs back-assward and probably going to lose quickly anyway so they don’t fall as low as… 

11. Braves.  See Phillies.  I guess they got rid of Ozuna but the racist chant remains.  Do they still fail to sell out playoff games?  Just a bad fanbase.

12. Yankees.  Never an acceptable choice.  I guess we’d root for the Yankees if they were matched up against the Al-Qaeda all-stars but seeing as that’s not the matchup this time, no reason to change this ranking.

 

I would rather root for explosive diarrhea. 

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

I mostly agree with Gwreck's list. I'd switch the Phillies and the Braves, not because I like the Braves but because I live in Phillie territory and it would be nice to see them shut down sooner rather than later.