Bo Bichette’s Big Month Didn't Help the Mets

[N.B. Lindberg]

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Fresh off writing the New York Mets’ hitters of the month piece for August, an odd detail caught my eye: Bo Bichette had an excellent 135 wRC+ in August, but managed to produce a negative win probability added (WPA). This isn’t a cause for alarm, but it is interesting. Those stats (wRC+ and WPA) are strongly correlated because hitting well is good for winning, so I figured further investigation was necessary. 

There are a few ways a hitter can hit well without helping his team’s chances of winning. The first is to rarely come up with runners on base or in scoring position. As great as a leadoff double is, the single that knocks them in improves your chances of winning more. The second is doing damage when the game is not close. If you’re up eight or down eight in the late innings, even a grand slam doesn’t change your odds all that much. The third is not having many leverage opportunities. And somehow, Bichette managed a trifecta. 

Of Bichette’s 109 plate appearances in August, 69 came with no runners on, and only 23 came with runners in scoring position. To make matters worse, Bichette saved his slugging for when the bases were empty. All four of his home runs, five of his seven doubles, and his lone triple came with no runners on. 

Bo Bichette	Bases Empty	Men On	Total
PA	69	40	109
1B	7	10	17
2B	5	2	7
3B	1	0	1
HR	4	0	4
BB	6	3	9
SO	14	6	20
Ave	0.270	0.324	0.290
OBP	0.333	0.375	0.349
Slugging	0.571	0.378	0.500
BB%	8.70%	7.50%	8.26%
K%	20.29%	15.00%	18.35%

On top of having no one on, three of Bichette’s August home runs came with the Mets up by at least three runs. And his lone home run to break a deadlock was in the first inning, when a 1-0 lead is the most vulnerable. 

Finally, Bichette’s average Leverage Index (0.89) for the month ranked 178th out of 190 qualified hitters. Now, that doesn’t necessarily doom you to a low WPA, as Alex Bregman had an identical Leverage Index and led baseball in WPA for August, but he posted a 177 wRC+ and hit three home runs in a single game twice. 

Opportunity is a big driver in context-based statistics, and Bichette didn’t really have the chance to shine. His -0.03 WPA was mostly driven by his 120th-ranked +1.75 win advancement, not his 60th-ranked -1.78 loss advancement. He wasn’t awful in leverage situations; he just didn’t have enough of them. 

This isn't proof that Bichette is some unclutch stiff who can only get it done when the pressure is off. He’s a career 118 wRC+ hitter with a positive clutch score, after all. However, even when a good hitter has it going, if the opportunities and sequencing are off, their impact on winning can be limited. I’ll stress: don’t hate the player, hate the game. Because that’s just baseball.

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[whippoorwill]

Seriously thought that said big MOUTH. 

[Centerfield]

That didn’t help either.