Should Jacob deGrom make the Hall of Fame?

[Cowtipper]

It's a simple question: Should Mets legend Jacob deGrom make the Hall of Fame when he retires? Vote today, and share your thoughts!

[Edgy MD]

Probably, but his story isn't done yet, and I wouldn't put it past him to try to pitch until he's 45 in pursuit of enough wins to put any doubts to bed.

[ashie62]

Maybe, he needs to improve his counting stats

[seawolf17]

Oof. Really good question. But my gut says no.

If he really does pitch four or five more years, hits 3,000 K or something crazy? Then probably. But that seems wildly unlikely.

And that's kinda too bad, because his 2017-20 is up there with 97-03 Pedro or 62-65 Koufax or 68-70 Bob Gibson. But the volume just isn't there because of the injuries.

[whippoorwill]

I don’t care

[Edgy MD]

5 hours ago, seawolf17 said:

And that's kinda too bad, because his 2017-20 is up there with 97-03 Pedro or 62-65 Koufax or 68-70 Bob Gibson. But the volume just isn't there because of the injuries.

A notable portion of the volume that missing is a bizarre lack of wins during that period because of lack of support from the Mets offense and bullpen.

Pitcher wins are grossly over-rated, of course, but they stand as mileposts, and the convenient shorthand they provide still tells voter whether to open the book and dig deeper.

 

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

100 percent he's in. 

[Cowtipper]

I support him now based on peak alone, however I think it'll be hard to deny him if he makes it to 2,000 innings. His career so far is roughly equivalent to Sandy Koufax's six-year run from 1961 to 1966:

DeGrom: 1635 IP
Koufax: 1632 IP

DeGrom: 1248 H
Koufax: 1171 H

DeGrom: 2.63 ERA
Koufax: 2.19 ERA

DeGrom: 1966 K
Koufax: 1713 K

DeGrom: 148 ERA+
Koufax: 156 ERA+

DeGrom: 0.986 WHIP
Koufax: 0.970 WHIP

Etc. etc.

So deGrom for his career has done about what mostly got Koufax in, which was that stretch. Now if deGrom can get a few more years in where he just pads his counting numbers -- he's already almost to 2,000 Ks and should be there by the end of the year -- then he'll look that much better. For peak cases, even historically, wins weren't the be-all-end-all. Dizzy Dean, Lefty Gomez, Rube Waddell, Ed Walsh etc. all got in with less than 200 wins, back when 200 wins was more common. 

DeGrom probably has two more years with Texas after this. Assume 150 innings each season and that should get him to 2,000 IP for his career, and assume a good amount of Ks and that should get him near or past Koufax's career total of about 2,400. 
 

[seawolf17]

I mean, look. The guy was probably the best pitcher in baseball for four years, and that absolutely counts for something. He struck out everyone, threw lightning bolts, was unhittable, and was basically must-watch baseball. Maybe he didn't have a lot of wins because he pitched for bad teams, but that's almost irrelevant to the Hall discussion.

If you'd asked this question at the end of that fourth gonzo season, then yeah, he's basically a lock once he gets to ten years. But it didn't last. Injuries and life get in the way.

The question here is whether I'm talking about Luis Tiant, Dwight Gooden, Johan Santana, Dave Stieb, Mark Langston, Bret Saberhagen, or deGrom. Because you can say that about those guys, too. And they're not HOFers either.

[smg58]

60 WAR seems to be the bar now (at least that's what it's become for hitters), and DeGrom (by FanGraphs' math, at least) is still below 50.  So he's not a lock, but two more elite seasons would put him in the running.

While I'm looking at FanGraphs, it's worth pointing out that his fastball has been faster than his 2018 level every year since.  And with the exception of the 2021 season, when he blew out his arm and took the team's playoff chances with him, he hasn't been as good.  And of course, he hasn't been anywhere near as healthy.  There is a moral in there that a whole lot of baseball people are ignoring.

[Cowtipper]

Kinda, but it's unfair to clump deGrom in with them because he was better than all of them, in terms of raw career numbers and peak. None of them had 13 straight years of peak-quality success, even if it was stunted at points. None of them averaged nearly 11 Ks per frame for their career. Tiant was a compiler who didn't compile enough, Gooden's run of true dominance lasted about 3 years, Etc. etc. I would say the closest comp is Santana, because his case is based almost entirely on peak without bookends, which is kind of what deGrom's dealing with right now. I'd say the best Hall comparison outside of Koufax might be Dazzy Vance, who was also a late-bloomer (a bit later than deGrom) who rattled off a skein of strikeout-heavy seasons in his 30s. 

But you cannot compare deGrom to anyone, really, because he's that unique a case.

60 WAR isn't the bar, 60 WAR is the lazy bar for people who want to look at one number instead of putting the brainpower into actually analyzing a player's case. 

[The Hot Corner]

The quality of his peak definitely was HOF worthy.  However, I believe he still falls a little short in my eyes (I'm a small Hall guy), but he could have a few more good seasons and make it a done deal.  I think it depends on what he does in the reminder of his contract.