NLDS IST - Phils/Dodgers

[Frayed Knot]

Sked (TBS):



G1 - Saturday 6:38

G2 - Monday 6:08

G3 - Wednesday 10/8

G4 - Thursday 10/9

G5 - Saturday 10/11





Has TBS got something better to air on these off days?

[Frayed Knot]

It just wouldn't be a Dodger post-season game without Kike Hernandez getting a clutch hit for them.

Dodgers were down 3-0 early but now up 5-3 thx to the Hernandez 'brothers' Kike (2R 2B) and Teoscar (3R HR)

Heading to bottom 8th









my spell-check keeps turning Kike into Mike. Yes, I know the K and M are close on the keyboard but I'm not a dunce ... at least not usually

[Frayed Knot]

9th inning, still 5 - 3, Roki Sasaki in for the save.



Realmuto - K

Kepler - Double

Bader - GO 4 - 3



Bryson Stott up ... Pops out to 3B, game over





Phils score three times in the 2nd vs Ohtani but are shut out in the other eight frames.

I was thinking this is the most uneatable the Dodgers have looked in several years ... but they're trying to prove me wrong (not a hard thing to do)

[MFS62]

Frayed Knot wrote: I was thinking this is the most uneatable the Dodgers have looked

Even on rye with mayo?

Later

[Frayed Knot]

Especially on rye with mayo!

I think I must have hit the N key while trying for the nearby B which then caused the auto-correct to insert a U in front of that N that I so obviously was negligent to include.

aka: Artificial UNintelligence.

[MFS62]

I'm rooting for the meteor.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

Game #2 @ 6:08 tonight. Blake Snell vs Jesus Luzardo



The games today are at 6:08 & 9:08 but the AL ones tomorrow at 4:08 & 8:08, which seems kind of odd.

My first thought was that 4:08 Eastern would make it too early for LA fans but MLB apparently has no

problem laying a 1:08 midweek local time start on Mariners fans.

[Frayed Knot]

I didn't hear when it occurred, but Harrison Bader came up with a leg injury in Game #1 so is out of the lineup and available only of possible PH duties.

Of course the big thing about that is that PH'ing is his least valuable skill. So what this has done is throw their OF into a tizzy. Brad Marsh is back in CF

but it was his decline in CF that led to them dealing for Bader at the deadline. We all know that Castellanos is a more than occasional adventure in RF

(not that Teoscar Hernandez is winning any GGs out there either) while LF is, at least for this game, being manned by rookie Otto Kemp who mostly

filled-in for Bohm at 3B this year playing just eleven games in the OF, seven as a starter. So definitely a defensive concern for the Phils out there.



Castellanos already took a funky route to one fly ball in the 1st inning. He ultimately made the catch although the Romanian judge seriously docked

his score on style points.





Scoreless thru 4 innings with just one hit in the game (single by Mookie).

[MFS62]

0*0 going into the bottom of the 6th.

In that bandbox?

Must be a hurricane blowing in from center.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

13 combined Ks so far is the main reason for no runs.

No one has threatened the fences and few have even briefly disturbed any of the outfielders.



1 hit / 3 walks for Phils (including one just now)

1 hit / 1 walk for Dodgers

[Frayed Knot]

Well this game suddenly got interesting.



Dodgers scored four in the 7th and led 4-1 heading into the 9th

Dave Roberts went to (former Nat) Blake Treinen and his 5.40 ERA (8.70 over the final month) to close out the three-run lead but that didn't go well [single - double - double]

and it's now 4-3, runner on 2nd, still no outs.

Alex Vesia on to pitch.

[Frayed Knot]

A Sac Bunt results in a tag play at 3rd [3B to SS covering] so now one out / runner on 1st, a clear step down from prior to the bunt attempt.

And now the previously mentioned Harrison Bader PH AB

[Frayed Knot]

So of course Bader lines a single to LF (and gets pinch-run for)

1st & 2nd / one out. Tying run on 2nd, winning run on 1st.

[Frayed Knot]

FC: 3-6 (well turned by Freddie/Mookie)

1st & 3rd, two outs, and Roki Sasaki is coming trying for the final out

Trea Turner up

[Frayed Knot]

4-3 to end the game (although it took nice scoop by Freddie to secure the out).



Phils now 1-5 in their last six playoff games in 'The Bank'

[Frayed Knot]

And speaking of home field advantage (which we kind of were) one of the "facts" among football folks is that the Seattle Seahawks have the best home field advantage in the entire NFL. It's said to be the loudest stadium of all, and the "Twelfth Man" is routinely celebrated during home games.

So, contrarian that I am, when I hear stuff like that I take it upon myself to find out whether or not these statements of fact are, in fact, actually facts.



So I went back to the most recent ten years of Seahawks games to see how well this 'known fact' holds up. The answer: not well.

Over the last ten seasons the 'hawks have gone 97-66-1, so a 59.45% win pct. Their home win pct is 59.76% and the road pct is 59.15%

iow, it's a difference without a distinction. Seattle's home win pct is essentially identical their road win pct which, when you consider that the overall home win pct in the NFL is around 55%, means that the Seahawks have home win pct that is Actually Worse than that of the league as a whole.





Myth = Busted!!







Not that this will stop the sports version of the chattering classes from claiming this to be the case,

[stevejrogers]

Frayed Knot wrote: And speaking of home field advantage (which we kind of were) one of the "facts" among football folks is that the Seattle Seahawks have the best home field advantage in the entire NFL. It's said to be the loudest stadium of all, and the "Twelfth Man" is routinely celebrated during home games. So, contrarian that I am, when I hear stuff like that I take it upon myself to find out whether or not these statements of fact are, in fact, actually facts. So I went back to the most recent ten years of Seahawks games to see how well this 'known fact' holds up. The answer: not well. Over the last ten seasons the 'hawks have gone 97-66-1, so a 59.45% win pct. Their home win pct is 59.76% and the road pct is 59.15% iow, it's a difference without a distinction. Seattle's home win pct is essentially identical their road win pct which, when you consider that the overall home win pct in the NFL is around 55%, means that the Seahawks have home win pct that is Actually Worse than that of the league as a whole. Myth = Busted!! Not that this will stop the sports version of the chattering classes from claiming this to be the case,

To be fair, that tag was from their Kingdome days, not their home, Lumen Field, which can be played as an open air stadium, unlike the always closed Kingdome, since 2002.

[stevejrogers]

But yeah, home field theatrics, especially loud dins and over exuberant crowds exemplified by a warehouse/hanger feeling indoor stadium, probably account for just an extra win or so if the team is actually pretty darn good in actuality.

[Frayed Knot]

=stevejrogers post_id=206535 time=1759839226 user_id=57]
To be fair, that tag was from their Kingdome days, not their home, Lumen Field, which can be played as an open air stadium, unlike the always closed Kingdome, since 2002.

[MFS62]

The Phills have announced Aaron Nola will start, with lefty starter Ranger Suarez the first arm out of the pen.

It's all hands on deck time.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

=MFS62 post_id=206563 time=1759881239 user_id=60]
The Phills have announced Aaron Nola will start, with lefty starter Ranger Suarez the first arm out of the pen.

It's all hands on deck time.

[Frayed Knot]

3-1 Phils as they bat in top 6 with bases loaded/two outs. Marsh up.









[bIGPURPLE]K[/bIGPURPLE]

[Frayed Knot]

The above post was the last I saw of that game.

Still up 3-1 entering the 7th, the Dodgers played their 'Kershaw out of the pen' card ... and it blew up on them.

He actually had a scoreless, though shaky, 7th, but then got tagged for five in the 8th to make it an 8-1 game

8-2 was the final as the Phils live to phight another day.



Kershaw: 2 IP, 5 runs (4 earned), 6 hits incl. 2 HRs, 4 BB





Day game in LA today, so 6:08 EDT first pitch

Brewers @ Cubs at 9:08

[whippoorwill]

Go Phillies

[whippoorwill]

Frayed Knot wrote: =stevejrogers post_id=206535 time=1759839226 user_id=57] To be fair, that tag was from their Kingdome days, not their home, Lumen Field, which can be played as an open air stadium, unlike the always closed Kingdome, since 2002.

It may stem from that era (and from the readiness to assign a greater edge to domed stadia) but I still hear it used now, including just in the last week which is what led me to check it out. I chose the last ten years simply for an easy sample.



There was a chapter in a book I read a while back which examined home field/court/ice advantages. Their conclusion was that things such as stadium noise, perceived fan enthusiasm, or regularity of selling out the arena all had no effect on a team's H.F. edge.





P.S. Top Ten ranked Penn St played winless UCLA last weekend at home and I heard various yakkers go on and on about how not only was this a home game for the Nittany Lions, but it was going to be a 'White Out' day so the only mystery was going to be the size of their victory.

Except, as it turned out, the result is probably going to go down as the biggest egg laid in the entire NCAA season.

[Frayed Knot]

Aahhhh, I obviously first conflated and then combined the two games in my head. Mainly I just enjoy the notion that folks think that the road team is somehow going to be even more intimidated based on what the spectators are wearing.







We now return you to the regularly scheduled NL Playoff thread, already in progress.

[Gwreck]

Frayed Knot wrote: Mainly I just enjoy the notion that folks think that the road team is somehow going to be even more intimidated based on what the spectators are wearing.

Wasn't there some research done, especially during the no-fans-in-stands-pandemic-days, that it is more likely the officials that will be intimidated? I seem to recall there being a trend across multiple sports that home teams weren't getting as many friendly calls when there weren't fans there.

[Frayed Knot]

Well the main conclusion in the study I referenced -- one which came from a book both you and I (IIRC) read [sCORECASTING] -- was that officiating was the main reason home teams enjoyed an edge in games based on a bias from officials, conscious or otherwise, of not wanting to be the bad guy. Those advantages differed between sports and they found basketball, with the large number of calls/game, almost all of them subjective; and soccer, where a single call (PK or no PK?) can have such an out-sized effect on a game's outcome, were the games with the largest edge for the home team. Baseball as a sport, where really only B/S calls remain as subjective, holds one of the smallest HF edge and, like in all sports, that edge remains fairly consistent within the sport. So MLB HF edge was right in line with minor league ball, with NPL league, and with KBO, etc.

Specifically what I was getting at here was that the authors did NOT find that those teams in traditionally loud or enthusiastic or fuller houses enjoyed a larger HF advantage over teams that normally don't fit those conditions, despite popular assumptions to the contrary.

[Gwreck]

Frayed Knot wrote: Well the main conclusion in the study I referenced -- one which came from a book both you and I (IIRC) read [sCORECASTING] -- was that officiating was the main reason home teams enjoyed an edge in games based on a bias from officials, conscious or otherwise, of not wanting to be the bad guy.

Yes. Book was excellent and I'm sure we discussed it here years ago. I can't remember now if the same author was the guy who did the pandemic-era research.

[MFS62]

Phills up 1-0 in the 7th of game 5.

Later