Top Draft Picks

[Frayed Knot]

This thread wasn't inspired by CF's ‘What if they all suck' thread (as I've been compiling this for about a week now) but it at least somewhat blends in with it.

And I think my only aim here was to point out that, while plenty of busts or simply non-stars come out of the early picks all the time, what the Mets have, since the Gooden/Strawberry duo anyway, lacked is the genuine impact player from among those picks that should be most likely to produce them. So that even the useful players we've gotten out of the top half of the 1st round have either been not very good or haven't been good for very long.



So what I've done here is to go back some 40 years and, since what qualifies as a first round pick varies from year to year, I decided to look at Top 20 Picks Only since that is supposedly the cream of the cream of the crop.



1983 — Eddie Williams (4th overall / High School pick)

Dealt away a year after being drafted (for Bruce Berenyi) and spent 10 seasons in the majors with six different teams while never getting into 100 games in any season and accumulated about two seasons worth of ABs without much success.



1984 — Shawn Abner (1st / HS)

Dealt away in December '86 as part of the Kevin McReynolds deal. Accumulated 900 PAs over parts of six seasons. 11 HRs / .227 BA



1990 — Jeromy Burnitz (17th / HS)

Fine 14 year ML career; 1,700 games, 350 as a Met in two different stints.



1991 — Al Shirley (18th / HS)

Eight seasons in the minors but never made the majors or even AAA



1992 — Chris Roberts (18th / FLA St U)

8 seasons in the minors including 55 games at AAA but never got the call



1992 — Preston Wilson, OF (9th / HS)

A nice 10 yr career elsewhere, but did help net us Piazza




1993 — Kirk Presley, RHP (8th / HS)

Injuries limited him to 30 minor league games across five seasons, all in A-ball, before he left the building.



1994 — Paul Wilson, RHP (1st / FLA St U)

26 games started as a rookie … then didn't see another game for three years and by then it was for Tampa Bay



1995 — Ryan Jaroncyk, SS (18th / HS)

Played parts of three Rookie and A-ball seasons in the Mets system … then abruptly quit. Claimed he didn't really like baseball and only played because his father pressured him into it. He later tried a comeback in the LAD system but never even saw AA



1996 — Rob Stratton, OF (13th / HS)

This is what happens when your Pete Alonso model slugger (6' 4” / 250) doesn't work. 11 minor lg / six AAA seasons but never in ‘The Show'



1997 — Geoff Goetz, LHP (6th / HS)

Seven years in the minors but nothing more. Also part of the Piazza trade.



2000 — Billy Traber (16th / Loyola Marymount U)

96 games/28 starts for four teams across five seasons after being part of the Roberto Alomar trade 18 months after being drafted.



2001 — Aaron Heilman, RHP (18th / Notre Dame)

Three very nice seasons as a Met but by then mostly a set-up reliever. Eventually dealt in a multi-team deal that netted us JJ Putz and Sean Green



2002 — Scott Kazmir (15th / HS)

Ah yes, this one. Dealt at a trading deadline, at the behest of one or more of Wilpon's ‘braintrust', for a nothing special starter plus a reliever (Victor Zambrano / Rick White) apparently without testing what other teams might offer for him.



2003 — Lastings Milledge (12th / HS)

Two seasons as a Met and pieces of four others elsewhere, but little success anywhere.



2004 — Philip Humber (3rd / Rice U)

That he pitched 9 innings as a Met was one thing. What made it worse was being one pick After Justin Verlander.



2005 — Mike Pelfrey (9th / U of Wichita)

Came out of college throwing 96 with sink … and then suddenly he didn't. Wound up with 7 mostly mediocre (or less) season in NY.



2010 — Matt Harvey (7th / U Conn)

Exploded on the scene (both on and off the field) in his first full season. Then came TJS plus various other injuries and that success was never duplicated.



2011 — Brandon Nimmo (13th / HS)

Didn't come quickly, but has been a solid player for 7+ seasons since.



2012 — Gavin Cecchini (12th / HS)

89 plate appearances for the Mets, and never got back to the majors after that.



2013 — Dom Smith (11th / HS)

Two good but partial seasons in '19 & '20, but subpar in every other one.



2014 — Michael Conforto (10th / Oregon St)

Four nice seasons from age 24 to 27, and then that one swing seemed to change everything.



2016 — Juston Dunn (19th / Boston College)

Traded away in the Diaz deal. Has pieces of four ML seasons but none since 2022 as the now 29 y/o is currently hurling for AAA Charlotte (CHW)



2018 — Jarred Kelenic (6th / HS)

Also in the Diaz deal, Coming off his first full (-ish) season w/ATL but with just a 86 OPS+



2019 — Brett Baty (12th / HS)

Still looking for a full time position.



2020 — Pete Crow-Armstrong (19th / HS)

Good fielder. His hitting skills at the ML level still TBD



2021 — Kumar Rocker (10th / Vanderbilt U)

Never signed. Was redrafted higher the next year. Five ML starts to date



2022 — Jett Williams (11th / HS)



2024 — Carson Benge (19th / Oklahoma St)







So what does the non-NYM universe look like with those same picks?

I compiled a list of ‘Stars' from top 20 picks by all teams during this same time span, defining 'Star' at 30 career WAR or better.



1983: Roger Clemens (19 / 139) [overall Pick / career WAR]

1984: Jay Bell (8 / 37); Mark McGwire (10 / 62)

1985: BJ Surhoff (1 / 34); Will Clark (2 / 57); Barry Larkin (3 / 71); Barry Bondy (6 / 163)

1986: Greg Swindell (2 / 31); Matt Williams (3 / 47); Kevin Brown (4 / 68); Gary Sheffield (6 / 61)

1987: Ken Griffey Jr (1 / 84); Kevin Appier (9 / 55)

1988: Andy Benes (1 / 32); Robin Ventura (10 / 56);

1989: Frank Thomas (7 / 74)

1990: Chipper Jones (1 / 85); Mike Mussina (20 / 83)

1991: Manny Ramirez: 13 / 69); Shawn Green (16 / 35)

1992: Derek Jeter (6 / 71)

1993: Alex Rodriguez (1 / 117); Derrick Lee (14 / 35); Chris Carpenter (15 / 34); Torii Hunter (20 / 51)

1994: Nomar Garciaparra (12 / 44)

1995: Darin Erstad (1 / 32); Todd Helton (8 / 62); Roy Halladay (17 / 64)

1996: Eric Chavez (10 / 38)

1997: Troy Glaus (3 / 38); Lance Berkman (16 / 52)

1998: JD Drew (5 / 45); CC Sabathia (20 / 62)

1999: Josh Beckett (2 / 36); Barry Zito (9 / 32)

2000: Adrian Gonzalez (1 / 44); Chase Utley (15 / 65)

2001: Joe Mauer (1 / 56); Mark Teixeira (5 / 51)

2002: Zack Greinke (6 / 77); Cole Hamels (17 / 59)

2003: Nick Markakis (7 / 34)

2004: Justin Verlander (2 / 80); Jered Weaver (12 / 35)

2005: Justin Upton (1 / 32); Alex Gordon (2 / 35); Ryan Zimmerman (4 / 40); Ryan Braun (5 / 47); Troy Tulowitski (7 / 45); Andrew McCutcheon (11 / 49)

2006: Evan Longoria (3 / 59); Clayton Kershaw (7 / 79); Max Scherzer (11 / 75)

2007: David Price (1 / 40); Madison Bumgarner (10 / 37); Jason Heyward (14 / 42)

2008: Buster Posey (5 / 45)

2009: Steven Strasburg (1 / 32); Zak Wheeler (6 / 36)

2010: Bryce Harper (1 / 51); Manny Machado (3 / 58); Chris Sale (13/53)

2011: Gerrit Cole (1 / 43); Anthony Rendon (6 / 34) Francisco Lindor (8 / 50); George Springer (11 / 39); Sonny Gray (18 / 32)



I cut off the list there since any successful players drafted top-20 since 2012 is likely still playing.

But that's 68 'stars' from a 29 year span. 68 of 579 top-2 picks over 29 years (JD Drew was drafted top 20 twice) or a about one player in nine.

If you want to get more stringent and raise the threshold to 40 career WAR then it's 48 players, although there are still active players who could still reach either level.

[Edgy MD]

The second pitcher the Mets got in the Scott Kazmir deal wasn't Rick White. It was Bartolomé Fortunato.



The reason I remember this is because his name was Bartolomé Fortunato.

[Fman99]

I just saw Dom Smith play here in Syracuse last week, he was the starting 1B for the AAA MFYs after not making the big league roster out of ST. He looked funny in those colors, like they were the wrong ones for him.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Edgy MD wrote: The second pitcher the Mets got in the Scott Kazmir deal wasn't Rick White. It was Bartolomé Fortunato. The reason I remember this is because his name was Bartolomé Fortunato.

Rick White came in the big Jason Tyner trade iirc

[metirish]

Nice work, FK, some interesting reading

[Cowtipper]

Al Shirley was a 200-strikeout guy before it was cool to be a 200-strikeout guy.

[Frayed Knot]

Problem was, he did it in shorter minor league seasons and with only about half the power (he topped out at 23 HRs) of the likes of Rob Deer and some of his later disciples.



Baseball America put Shirley in their Top-100 Prospects list (#74) after two partial low minors seasons, mainly off his .313/.457/.576 in 29 games at Kingsport despite his 35% K rates. And while it is, of course, much easier to judge all this in hindsight, I'd still like to think that ML teams and amateur/minors followers have learned to pay more attention to the red flags that go along with slash stats and small sample sizes to the point where they've gotten better over the years at scouting, touting, and drafting.

Shirley barely even put up a BA above .200 after that month or so in Kingsport and never got as high as AAA.