IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Vogelbach needs to get on here

[Frayed Knot]

We can get to this guy.

[Frayed Knot]

I'm surprised that the PR, LoCastro as it turns out, didn't beat Vogelbach to 1st

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Rally is on

[Edgy MD]

I'd bunt him here. If only to force the infield to come in.

[Edgy MD]

That's another reason to use the bunt.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Fudge

[Frayed Knot]

I thought that was going to be a triple play.

[Edgy MD]

Good game.



Bad outcome.

[DocTee]

[bLOCKQUOTE]he Mets (according to Fangraphs.com) have improved their playoff likelihood from 0.7% to 2.5% over the last week, and despite that hiccup in the last game against St. Louis, reduced the Cardinals' chances from 0.7% to virtually nil.[/bLOCKQUOTE]

The Mets have been unluckier than most. Their run differential (-29) is a dozen better than Miami (-41) but here we sit six games behind them in the standings (nine games under .500 as opposed to their three above). Even the Reds, at (-26) are playing at a playoff-caliber clip. C'est la vie.

[Benjamin Grimm]

http://potg.leaptoad.com/mets/images/schaefer16.jpg>



http://potg.leaptoad.com/mets/index.phpCast your vote!

[Edgy MD]

I'll admit that I don't understand the "go streaming" reference.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think it means that he needed to urinate.

[Edgy MD]

It strikes me that an important difference-maker in this game was Tim Locastro entering as a pinch-runner, but not only not stealing, but not going first-to-third on D.J. Stewart's single. Had he stolen, he's in a position to score on Stewart's hit.



The argument for him stealing is simple enough. He's the tying run. He wants to take away the double play. His brand as "Fastest Dude in Baseball" is probably more rep than fact at this point (he's 31), but that's why he's there. He's not on the team to just be faster than Vogelbach. His speed is supposed to be more than an asset, but a weapon, and once the game is afoot, weapons need to be fired to be effective. He gets in there, with a hot batter coming up, and (assuming what follows still follows), he scores on the single.



Also, did you know that Travis d'Arnaud has only thrown out 13% of would-be base-stealers this season? Well, I'm here to tell you that that Travis d'Arnaud has only thrown out 13% of would-be base-stealers this season. Mike Piazza used to be treated as a joke when he'd throw out 22–25% of attempted larcenists, but those are now the numbers that good catchers are getting. The stolen base is a more-achievable thing.



The argument against him stealing is simple enough. Raisel Iglesias hasn't been stolen on since last season. If you don't need to respect the catcher all that much, you need to respect the pitcher. And if the pitcher can keep you close enough to first, the catcher suddenly becomes a greater factor. He only had two pitches on which to run, with Stewart lining the third pitch to center, so he might not have even gotten a feel for his legs.



The argument for him going first-to-third? Also simple enough. The Mets have been ridiculous about respecting Ronald Acuña's arm in right these last two series, staying stuck to the bag when the ball is in play in a part of the ballpark where one has come to think of advancing as automatic. But Michael Harris ain't Ronald Acuña. His outfield arm is merely terrific, not best-in-baseball great (like Acuña's), and that's matched up against Locastro's wheels which are also terrific, which should negate the terrificness of Harris' arm. And they may actually be best-in-baseball great (though probably not — not anymore.) But getting third would've given Locastro two chances to score the tying run on an out, the chance to score the tying run on a double play (which Álvarez subsequently hit into). If the throw from Harris gets away, he scores and the go-ahead run is in scoring position.



If he's in there, perhaps Austin Riley comes home with the subsequent grounder, but even if he's out, the Mets still have one out and the tying and go-ahead runs on base. And it's a tough play with the runner directly between Riley and the catcher. If that ball bounces off of him, the game is tied with the go-ahead run on third with no out!



And with runners on first and third, Riley may not even be guarding the line there and can't do much with that grounder at all. But that's probably wishful thinking. He's probably guarding the line.



The argument against him going first-to-third is mostly about the book. The book says you don't make the first out at third. If he's thrown out, that's what he's doing. You have three chances to score on a base hit, and you can even (in theory) score by advancing twice on outs from second, and so you don't want to die at third.



The book also says that you play for the tie at home, and the win on the road, which means being conservative with that first runner, and more aggressive with the second. (Maybe Abraham Almonte or Danny Mendick or Kodai Senga or somebody should have pinch-run for Stewart, but that ship has sailed while this decision making is happening, and the short-term advantage would have likely only been marginal.)



Also, my comments about Harris' arm not being Acuña's isn't that strong an argument. it's still terrific. And he's a lefthanded thrower, which makes it a lot easier for him to come up with the ball and throw to third without having to twist his body into position.



in summary, I don't know if the call to hold at second was Locastro's or Joey Cora's. I think the chance he makes it are somewhere between 45 and 65 percent, and that's not the strongest. But the game had a playoff tenseness about it at the end, and it kind of called for weapon-on-weapon decision-making at the end. A terrific arm against a terrific set of wheels. That would have been objectively cool, and subjectively awesome if he made it.



But I dunno.

[MFS62]

Good (not the best) arm against a very fast runner.

Speed kills.

Once the fielder sees the guy is going to third,

It can force hesitation, improving the runner's chances.

It can force a hasty, and maybe inaccurate, throw.

And maybe the runner is flat out fast enough to beat a good throw.



And maybe not.



But you have to try. Is the coach going to get fired if the runner is thrown out?

What have they got to lose?

Send him.

Later

[Edgy MD]

Well, I tried to make clear what they had a lot to lose if they failed, which was no small amount. And, of course, they had a lot to gain if they succeeded.



I'm not sure what the final calculus is, or if my estimate of the likelihood of success is low, high, or perfectly accurate. There's a lot of math available on issues of baserunner advancement that can likely clarify what the break-even point is — telling us just how likely a chance of success Locastro would have needed to make going the right decision.

[Frayed Knot]

If he tries for 3rd there he's out by 25 ft

[Edgy MD]

Well, there's a vote for 0% likelihood of success.

[MFS62]

And when considering that "available math," the coach has to factor in other things - e.g.- was the ball right at the fielder, or is he moving to one side? Is the ball damp from a wet or humid field that could affect his grip? How good a jump did the runner get (is he off with the pitch?)

Those may or may not be included in the calculations.

Some teams play conservatively, not giving the other team a chance to get outs. Ohers play a more aggressive brand of baseball - forcing the other team into errors.

It boils down to gut feel - did the coach think the runner can make it? And it is a snap judgement he gets paid to make.



(I just re-read that, and it makes me sound like a patronizing asshole)



Later

[Edgy MD]

The calculations aren't really about determining whether or not to send the guy. They're about the level of confidence you would need to have.



In some situations, you don't want to send the guy unless you're 95% confident he can make it. In other situations, the advantage of the extra base is enough that you would send the guy even if there's only a 30% chance he can make it. Those factors you list may help determine what the coach's or the runner's confidence may be, but the math is more or less set in stone.

[Edgy MD]

I just re-watched the inning. There was no replay that gave an indication where Locastro was when Harris got to the ball, or where the ball was when Locastro hit the breaks.

[Frayed Knot]

The play was in front of the runner, he's making (or at least should be) his own go/stop decision there. He made the right call.