Let's Gather Round and Talk About... Nate Eovaldi

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

My radical plan for the Mets is to get stupid on the starting pitching front, and specifically not go after a No. 4 or 5 but a No. 1 or 2.

The Braves dynasty 1.0 really took off when they already had plenty of "good young pitching" but instead of bolstering it from the pool of 38-year-old reliable vets they said "suck this, National League" and added Greg F. Maddux. That's sort of what I'm envisioning for the Mets.

Eovaldi is no Maddux but his stuff has always been great and he's obviously been smoking in this postseason, doing for his FA candidacy what Harper and Machado are not doing.

Under this plan my starting 5 is DeGrom, Eovaldi, Syndergaard, Wheeler and ?? Let Matz fight to avoid becoming our next closer, or use him in a trade to get a catcher.

SIGN THIS PALOOKA NOW!!!!

[MFS62]

A player the MFYs gave up on doing well for the Mets would be fun.
I'd have to find out more about whether he was hurt or it was a "can't handle New York" kind of thing.
But an interesting idea.

Later

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

He ended his mfy career with tj surgery, this is his comeback year... still less than 30 yo

[Frayed Knot]

First off, I don't believe that 'can't handle NY' is even a thing. More often it's a post hoc excuse that writers, fans, and/or team execs use to absolve themselves of wanting the player who didn't turn out
to be as good as they wanted them to be. Cashman did that with Jeff Weaver after earlier crowing about how all his numbers were trending in the right direction when they traded for him. IOW, he
wanted credit if/when Weaver did well but washed his hands of him after he didn't ("How was I to know he couldn't handle NYC?")
But when Robinson Cano goes to the Mariners and has an off year nobody blames Seattle as the culprit because it's not part of the ready-made story.

Secondly, it wasn't as if Eovaldi failed w/the Yanx; he went 23-11 over a season and a half (yeah, I know, wins) with his ERA & WHIP right about where they had been in previous seasons w/LAD & MIA
He missed the back half of 2016 and all of '17 w/TJS but hasn't lost any of his velocity and is seemingly better, at least in a one year sample size, since his return, first with TBR and later in Boston.

Turns 29 in February

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: My radical plan for the Mets is to get stupid on the starting pitching front, and specifically not go after a No. 4 or 5 but a No. 1 or 2.

That's why I wanted Darvish and Ohtani last offseason.

I don't think Eovaldi is it though. Doesn't quite have a great K rate, though his BB one is pretty good.

Oddly he's throwing his hardest right now as he ever has. That, coupled with the new cutter and split finger he's throwing might account for his success this year. But lose a tick off that, and/or let other teams catch up to his new pitches and I'd be worried he'll return to being mostly ordinary and Vargas-y.

[Vic Sage]

Eovaldi? Seriously?

SERIOUSLY?

This guy has sucked since 2011, with a sub-4 era only once over a full season. He has a bad whip, a bad ERA+, unimpressive WAR... what is it exactly that makes you think he'd be a #2 starter for anybody? His 50 IP for the Bosox this year? His 2 recent post-season wins? THAT'S the sample size you're looking at?

WTF, Johnny?

i expect more from you.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

He's better than you think, I think

[Vic Sage]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: He's better than you think, I think

It's not what i think... it's what the numbers say.

The burden is on you to explain why he'd be better next year than he's ever been to date, much less qualify as the "#1 or 2" that your radical plan calls for. And if your only evidence is those 2 recent post-season games, than i call bullshit.

[smg58]

Eovaldi's 112 ERA+ for the year isn't bad, but isn't a whole lot better than what Jason Vargas did in 2017 (108). If you want a pitcher with a "can't handle New York" tag rightly or wrongly placed on him but has real 1 or 2 starter upside, get Sonny Gray.

[seawolf17]

Eovaldi is an expensive Vargas. Pass. He's a #4 here at best, and we'd overpay for him.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Vic Sage wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: He's better than you think, I think It's not what i think... it's what the numbers say. The burden is on you to explain why he'd be better next year than he's ever been to date, much less qualify as the "#1 or 2" that your radical plan calls for. And if your only evidence is those 2 recent post-season games, than i call bullshit.

The "numbers" I'd look at is stuff like velocity, which indicates he throws about as hard as Syndergaard. And yes I'm going "small sample" on him or at least, valuing recent results somewhat higher than previous seasons where he may or may not have been pitching injured. And look, his performance in the playoffs is real. Facing good hitting teams, on the road, shutting them down, in critical games.

He's also about the best FA candidate to fulfill my "All ACES" strategy, unless you'd prefer Keuchel or Corbin?

[Centerfield]

I'm totally down for All Aces.

But I also question whether Eovaldi fits that category. Keuchel seems to be declining already, and Corbin might be a one year wonder.

I say we go back in time and get Greg Fucking Maddux.

[Frayed Knot]

And it would give us a slogan going into the season: 'HEY NL, KISS OUR ACES'

[Centerfield]

I mean, if he opts out, we could pursue Clayton Fucking Kershaw.

He's two years older than Eovaldi, a year older than Keuchel and Corbin. He's battled injuries the past few years, and may well be on the decline. This year his WHIP ballooned to 1.04, and his ERA was an unsightly 2.73. His highest since 2009.

[Edgy MD]

I like the philosophy, but amn't sure that Eovaldi is going to be the man. Patrick Corbin, maybe?

But this sort of hostile takeover maneuver may call for looking beyond the available free agent market and getting creative with a trade. It was the trade market that brought in Viola on top of Gooden, Saberhagen on top of Gooden, Hampton on top of Leiter, and Santana on top of Martinez.

[HahnSolo]

smg58 wrote: If you want a pitcher with a "can't handle New York" tag rightly or wrongly placed on him but has real 1 or 2 starter upside, get Sonny Gray.

I am intrigued by this.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'd say go get Sonny Gray but he actually did suck this year. We already have a young guy with good stuff who sucks in Matz.

[Ceetar]

How about Ryu? I'll spin it off I guess.

[smg58]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'd say go get Sonny Gray but he actually did suck this year. We already have a young guy with good stuff who sucks in Matz.

A 4.90 ERA in that division and that park sucks less than you might think. And I trust Callaway to get a starting pitcher right.

Ryu is intriguing. I would need somebody who knows something about pitchers' arms to give me a reason to think he can stay healthy. But he's been ace caliber when he's actually gotten to the mound.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

smg58 wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'd say go get Sonny Gray but he actually did suck this year. We already have a young guy with good stuff who sucks in Matz. A 4.90 ERA in that division and that park sucks less than you might think. And I trust Callaway to get a starting pitcher right.

Would you trade Matz for Gray? Just a brain exercise more than anything.

I mean, there's a service time calculation I'm probably overlooking but I might

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Would you trade Matz for Gray? Just a brain exercise more than anything. I mean, there's a service time calculation I'm probably overlooking but I might

They're more similar than I thought. Matz walks a few less, and strikes out a few more. That's valuable. His ERA is a bit lower but some of the more advanced measures are close.

Fastball velocity is about the same (though the Yankees are slider-happy and afraid of Fastballs, so he hasn't been throwing it, which may be inflating his number this year?)

but pound for pound I'd still keep the younger lefty.

[Centerfield]

NVM. LET’S GO GET THIS GUY.

102. WTF.

[smg58]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'd say go get Sonny Gray but he actually did suck this year. We already have a young guy with good stuff who sucks in Matz. A 4.90 ERA in that division and that park sucks less than you might think. And I trust Callaway to get a starting pitcher right. Would you trade Matz for Gray? Just a brain exercise more than anything. I mean, there's a service time calculation I'm probably overlooking but I might

It would be three years of Matz (and cheaper, at least to start out) for one year of Gray. So no. But I'd start with Jay Bruce and see where the conversation goes from there.

[Ceetar]

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