Who's gonna be the General Manager?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Maybe what's going on here is that Fred gets his way by having Omar be the scoutmaster and Brodie the dealmaker.

[Centerfield]

Who does the analytics?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

"I'm open to analytics."

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

interns, duh

[Frayed Knot]

Centerfield wrote: Who does the analytics?

The analytics department. Same as with every club.

It's not like even the so called "Analytic GMs" are the ones crunching the numbers. The difference is how receptive the man in charge is (or is not) to following such data.
How receptive is BVW going to be to analytics? ... I have no idea, but I think it's safe to say he's certainly familiar with them.

[MFS62]

Frayed Knot wrote: ALL agents either need to scout/analyze and evaluate players or need to have that done for them. You know you else does that? ... GMs! GMs aren't out scouting players unless and until they've been recommended up the chain to them and it's time to make the final sign or trade judgement. Agents operate the same way or else they'd be really bad agents and not the head of the entire baseball division of a representative corporation.

Agreed. You convinced me. But I still must ask, "to what end"?
To an agent, those analytics and that skill set are used in support of negotiating the best possible contract for an individual player. You'd still have to convince me how that relates to building a balanced roster.

I liken it to someone who has a PhD in Microbiology. They can use what they have learned to discover the cure for a disease or they can teach.
Same skill set, two different objectives.

Will he be successful? I hope so.
Do I think he will be? I'm not sure.

Let me put it this way: I am excited by the prospect of a team making such an outside-the-box hire. But as a Mets fan, I'd prefer to have Bloom, because I wouldn't want my team to be an experiment.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

But is building a balanced roster all that tricky? It's not hard to identify that you need, for example, a catcher, or a right-handed bat, or a left-handed reliever. Knowing what you need is easy, finding the right player and determining if he's worth whatever it will cost (in players or money) is where the challenge lies.

[smg58]

MFS62 wrote: Let me put it this way: I am excited by the prospect of a team making such an outside-the-box hire. But as a Mets fan, I'd prefer to have Bloom, because I wouldn't want my team to be an experiment.

You summed up my feelings better than I could.

[Centerfield]

Serious question. Do agents really scout and analyze? Teams have to do it because they have limited resources and limited spots. An agent has no limit to how many clients they can have. Do they really need to discern which of the five shortstop prospects to take? Or do they market to all five?

And yes I understand that even with a whole department like BVW ran there are limited hours, but do you prioritize the time on who you think is the best? Or who you think is the most receptive to a relationship?

[Mex17]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I work in restaurant kitchens. If we have an ace server or well-regarded sommelier who seems to have a gift for flavor and a talent for cooking, he/she might be given a shot on the line, walking before he can run. He/she's NOT getting made a sous chef, much less exec chef, in charge of the entire back-of-house operation, even if he/she is a precocious learner, and is universally well regarded, and has made their way to the top of the heap in their neck of the restaurant's org chart. There are things he/she must learn-- or prove he/she knows-- firsthand before the mantle of leadership is entrusted to him/her. That's just how it's done in a professional organization. I mean, it's great that we've got a guy with the tools to do the job. But the ashheap of can't-miss-prospects-who-missed is full of toolsy guys' figurative remains, innit? I mean, just because you have a talented guy who wants to make a career left turn interested in your job-- however translatable his skill set may be-- doesn't mean he merits the top job in your organization, does it? (At least not over a younger, similarly-talented guy who's, y'know, DONE the job.)

I think that you are underestimating what "Co-head of the baseball division at CAA Sports" means. For once, I might be in alignment with Frayed Knot here.

[Centerfield]

As for why this move is disappointing, this GM search comes down to the same basic principle as everything else discussed on this, or any other, fan board.

Does this move maximize my chances for success?

We know that nothing guarantees success. In this post season, we saw a number of teams that did everything right. Many won 100+ games, and in the end, only one team gets to lift the trophy. But those teams will continue to make all the right moves and continue to try to put themselves in a situation, where if they get a few bounces, they take home the prize.

Why do I focus so much on budget? Because it's beyond dispute that resources maximize a team's chances at success. Choosing not to spend is foolish. Being unable to spend is incompetent, and warrants replacement.

Why do we focus on analytics? Because this is just a fancy way of saying "information". The more information you have, the better your chances of making the right decision. Should we bring in Jay Bruce? Or give Nimmo more starts? The analytics guys were on this before Nimmo broke out this year. I don't care so much about the size of the analytics department, though if Sandy Alderson says he needs more guys, get him more fucking guys. But do we listen to them? Do we utilize them? Like budget, the effectiveness of using analytics is proven. So why the fuck would we not take this advantage?

And so why is this GM decision disappointing? Because it does not appear that the Wilpons made the choice that best maximizes our chances for success. We are looking for a GM that can build a winning team on (presumably) a limited budget. A guy who can utilize the modern data and turn that into wins on the field. If that is our goal, there was one candidate that was head and shoulders above the others. And that guy was ready to take our job, but we deliberately decided to go in a different direction. I mean, Melvin was clearly the wrong guy. Everyone could see that. But Brodie? I don't know. He might be. But why would we take that risk? Why wouldn't we take the guy who just finished doing in Tampa exactly what we want him to do here?

Now, it's possible that the Wilpons are privy to information we don't have. That they are geniuses with an ace up their sleeve, and someday we'll look back and be like, wow, those Wilpons are fucking savvy. But do you really think so?

Last year, their "outside the box" move was Mickey Calloway. "We're hiring a pitching coach for a manager! Our new guy is so smart, so smart, have you met our smart new manager?" How did that work out? It wasn't the disaster it appeared to be early in the season, but at best, Mickey Calloway was just ok. If he's back this year, whatever. If he's not, I don't really care. But we didn't really have great options last season. Alex Cora preferred another job, and Brad Ausmus wasn't interested. So we did what we could.

This year, we have a star GM prospect sitting at our table. And we go with an agent? Look, if you make that move, you better fucking know what you're doing. And I don't believe the Wilpons have earned any benefit of the doubt.

[Centerfield]

Mex17 wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I work in restaurant kitchens. If we have an ace server or well-regarded sommelier who seems to have a gift for flavor and a talent for cooking, he/she might be given a shot on the line, walking before he can run. He/she's NOT getting made a sous chef, much less exec chef, in charge of the entire back-of-house operation, even if he/she is a precocious learner, and is universally well regarded, and has made their way to the top of the heap in their neck of the restaurant's org chart. There are things he/she must learn-- or prove he/she knows-- firsthand before the mantle of leadership is entrusted to him/her. That's just how it's done in a professional organization. I mean, it's great that we've got a guy with the tools to do the job. But the ashheap of can't-miss-prospects-who-missed is full of toolsy guys' figurative remains, innit? I mean, just because you have a talented guy who wants to make a career left turn interested in your job-- however translatable his skill set may be-- doesn't mean he merits the top job in your organization, does it? (At least not over a younger, similarly-talented guy who's, y'know, DONE the job.) I think that you are underestimating what "Co-head of the baseball division at CAA Sports" means. For once, I might be in alignment with Frayed Knot here.

I think that it means that Brodie Van Wagenen is a terrific salesman. That he's great at making his clients appear to be worth more than they are. That he talks a good game and is adept at painting his clients in the best possible light.

Holy crap. I just figured out why the Wilpons hired him.

[Mex17]

I believe that two things are primarily driving this. . .

1) Fred Wilpon is 81 years old. To me, that means that he is looking to make one more "last stand" to grab a ring before he leaves this Earth. As such, although it turned out that he was prepared to listen, he is not in a position to hand the reigns over to a guy from Tampa in order for him to holistically terraform the Mets into another, larger market, version of the Rays (as much as many of us, myself included, want to see that happen). He does not have the time to see that play out. Instead, he is bringing in a mega-agent to do mega deals involving mega players this winter. It might not work (as evidenced by the link below), but that is what they are going for.

https://nypost.com/2018/10/27/union-head-mlb-players-worried-about-expected-mets-gm-pick/

2) The ever present obsession with public perception is also at play here. They did not want to look like they were going down the "safe road" with an old scouting fossil such as Melvin or LaRocque. They knew that there was a clamoring for them to go outside the box and outside of their comfort zone. Hiring the agent accomplishes this (to them) while also satisfying the conditions of point #1.

Edited October 27, 2018 by Guest

[Centerfield]

I do not believe for a second that the Mets are about to do mega deals with mega players.

[HahnSolo]

I’m feeling like, if they’re just gonna keep Omar, Ricco, and JP (and I know that hasn’t been confirmed but it’s the impression I’m getting) and hire an agent, then what’s the point?

It’s like they’re not saying to prospective GMs: “we need you to come in and build a program” rather they’re saying “we need you to come in and run OUR program.”

It’s frustrating.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Maybe Bloom's plan was to tear it all down and suck for the next three years. If he felt strongly that that was the way to go, then I don't think I'd hire him either.

[RealityChuck]

The Players Association is not happy with the choice of Van Whathisname.

It's an incredibly stupid choice, sort of like having your best slugger lay down a squeeze bunt with two strikes and none out. It might work, but you'd be a idiot to try it.

[Centerfield]

Did the players association raise any objection when the Diamondbacks hired Dave Stewart? I don’t know if they did but they should be consistent.

I would be curious to know how deGrom, Noah et al feel about this. Do they like this or do they feel betrayed?

I wonder if they stay with Van Wagenen’s old company or if they jump ship.

[Centerfield]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Maybe Bloom's plan was to tear it all down and suck for the next three years. If he felt strongly that that was the way to go, then I don't think I'd hire him either.

The reports are that all finalists were on board to compete in 2019. The ones who did not feel that were not considered.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, if that's the case, so much for that theory!

[Mex17]

Centerfield wrote: I would be curious to know how deGrom, Noah et al feel about this. Do they like this or do they feel betrayed?

My first instinct would be to think that they now feel that they have an inside man working on their behalf from the team side. Based on what I am reading from Tony Clark though, maybe I'm wrong.

It would be so typical Mets to have this blow up in their faces.

[Mex17]

Van Wagenen's Wikipedia page says that his father in law was Neil Armstrong. I cannot see how that can be if. . .


(spoiler alert for "First Man")







. . .Armstrong's only daughter passed away as a child.

[Benjamin Grimm]

FUN FACT: According to Matt Ehalt at NewJersey.com, Brodie Van Wagenen is the son-in-law of Neil Armstrong! Yes, THAT guy! OK, I'm confused here. Armstrong had but one daughter who died as a child. Did Armstrong's second wife have a daughter from a previous marriage who later married BVW? If so that makes Armstrong more of a step-Father in Law?

Edgy MD wrote: Yes, Bodie is married to Molly, Neil's step-daughter.

[Frayed Knot]

Mex17 wrote: 1) Fred Wilpon is 81 years old. To me, that means that he is looking to make one more "last stand" to grab a ring before he leaves this Earth. As such, although it turned out that he was prepared to listen, he is not in a position to hand the reigns over to a guy from Tampa in order for him to holistically terraform the Mets into another, larger market, version of the Rays ... He does not have the time to see that play out. Instead, he is bringing in a mega-agent to do mega deals involving mega players this winter. It might not work (as evidenced by the link below), but that is what they are going for.

I think we (you, me, any of us) are making a mistake by thinking that either Bloom or BVW are one-trick ponies capable only of a single way to operate.
Yes Bloom helped break down the Rays but they're the Rays and it doesn't mean he'd act the exact same way if suddenly dropped behind enemy lines of any of the other 29 teams.
And, yes, BVW is an agent, but he's not going to be one anymore if he accepts this job and to think his only skill, and therefore his only possible M.O. going forward, would be big signings is kinda silly as well.

2) The ever present obsession with public perception is also at play here. They did not want to look like they were going down the "safe road" with an old scouting fossil such as Melvin or LaRocque. They knew that there was a clamoring for them to go outside the box and outside of their comfort zone. Hiring the agent accomplishes this (to them) while also satisfying the conditions of point #1.

Not to defend the Wilpons too vigorously here, but this is a damned if the do damned if they don't situation. Either we criticize them for same-old/same-old or assume that they must be trying to trick us by NOT doing same-old/same-old.



This move, assuming it goes through, is unusual but not unprecedented and maybe, just maybe mind you, they're doing it because they think he's a smart guy that can run a club well -- under their terms of course.
And speaking of those terms, if we're going to complain about a dearth of analytics or an insufficient payroll well then, guess what?, those conditions would have existed no matter who they hired and those complaints, valid though they may be, are pretty much independent from the choice of Van Wagenen.

[MFS62]

Since none of us can predict how this will turn out, I'll just sit back and hope to be pleasantly surprised.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

That's really our only option!

[Benjamin Grimm]

[Guest 41Forever]

That’s some impressive PhotoShopping going on there at the Post!

Not quite Zvon level of good, but still really good!

[Mex17]

Yes Bloom helped break down the Rays

In Bloom's case, I am talking about much more than "breaking down", presumably as in conducting fire sales.

https://www.mlb.com/rays/team/front-office/chaim-bloom/

". . .he was involved in all aspects of the Rays minor league system, including player evaluation and assignments, the expansion of the department's video, strength and conditioning and mental skills initiatives, the creation of the "Rays Way" player development manual and the execution of individual development plans for the organization's prospects."


I don't think that the Mets currently have anything along the lines of a "Rays Way" or a "Cardinals Way" or any other sort of "way". Do you, based upon observation, think they do?

[MFS62]

Mex17 wrote: I don't think that the Mets currently have anything along the lines of a "Rays Way" or a "Cardinals Way" or any other sort of "way". Do you, based upon observation, think they do?

Frank Cashen brought one to the team from his stint with the Orioles. He implemented consistency throughout all levels of the organization, down to trying to reconfigure all the minor league ballparks to conform to the Shea dimensions.
But I haven't read anything about it, or anything like it, since he left the team.
Later