Super-Jack Hammer-Wielding Juan Lagares 2.0

[Centerfield]

Hitting bombs in batting practice. Hoping it translates into game success.

Lagares hit in a group with Yoenis Cespedes on Saturday on Field 2 at the Mets’ First Data Field complex and bombed some balls into the palm trees. Cespedes, who knows home runs, told Lagares that he looks “way better.’’

https://nypost.com/2018/02/10/juan-lagares-new-swing-draws-praise-from-yoenis-cespedes/

Your 2018 Mets! Way Better!

[Ceetar]

Honestly I'd have just preferred Juan work on taking a few more walks.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Ceetar wrote: Honestly I'd have just preferred Juan work on taking a few more walks.

I dunno, a little more pop from the outfield would be alright by me. I hope
that pop ain't coming from something that could result in a 'vacation from
baseball.'

[Lefty Specialist]

If I recall, Lagares has always been able to do this in batting practice. But it hasn't translated to any success on the field.

[Ceetar]

d'Kong76 wrote: Ceetar wrote: Honestly I'd have just preferred Juan work on taking a few more walks. I dunno, a little more pop from the outfield would be alright by me. I hope that pop ain't coming from something that could result in a 'vacation from baseball.'

With the ball the way it is Luis Castillo would hit 5 HR. We got plenty of sluggers, we need guys to get on base.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Lefty Specialist wrote: If I recall, Lagares has always been able to do this in batting practice. But it hasn't translated to any success on the field.

Baseball Prospectus calls that stat BPP.

[Edgy MD]

One thing about trying to be more walky than sluggy is that it's easier to stay healthy and continue to be a ballhawk as a walky guy. Not that that's worked out so far.

On the other hand, the Mets had four sluggy outfielders last season, but that mostly slugged them to fourth place.

I'll take any improvement I can get though, and happily note that the idea (if only the idea) of guys adding that uppercut to the swing is not just to garner more homers, but more base hits overall. So go, Juan, go!

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: One thing about trying to be more walky than sluggy is that it's easier to stay healthy and continue to be a ballhawk as a walky guy. Not that that's worked out so far. On the other hand, the Mets had four sluggy outfielders last season, but that mostly slugged them to fourth place. I'll take any improvement I can get though, and happily note that the idea (if only the idea) of guys adding that uppercut to the swing is not just to garner more homers, but more base hits overall. So go, Juan, go!

Yeah, I think the added power is only part of it. The whole uppercut swing adds a lot of advantages.

1. Bat stays in the hitting zone longer rather than a downward plane swing which only has one point of contact. So more contact, fewer strikeouts. Also, the idea is more foul balls when you are fooled, so it could lead to more walks.
2. Soft line drives fall in. Soft ground balls rarely find holes.
3. More HR's.

[Vic Sage]

This goes under the category of things that players say in ST (e.g., "I'm in best shape of my life!") or that is said in ST about others ("he looks like he's in the best shape of his life!"). I absolutely refuse to believe this leopard has changed his spots until i see him do it in games, over a prolonged period, without falling back into bad habits.

In any event, even a better hitting Lagares is not as helpful as a .370 OB% from Nimmo, who actually gives us a baserunner in front of our sluggers. If Lagares can give us a .350 OB% with some pop, that would be great, and his D would make him a huge asset and a starter in CF. But in over 1700 major league PAs to date, his career OB is under .300, while averaging 6HRs. Nimmo is a better hitter today, at 24, than Lagares, 28, has ever been and adds a needed dimension to the offense than even a sluggier Lagares wouldn't.

I think they should be in a strict platoon until Conforto returns. If either or both hit well during that time, then move Bruce to 1b and play Conforto in RF (odds being good that we're not going to get much from A-Gon).

[Frayed Knot]

d'Kong76 wrote: Lefty Specialist wrote: If I recall, Lagares has always been able to do this in batting practice. But it hasn't translated to any success on the field. Baseball Prospectus calls that stat BPP.

Prospect reports often talk about a player who has 'useable power' and how he's a cut above those guys who may have power but can never seem to make it show up in game conditions.

[smg58]

I would argue that Nimmo needs to hit for more pop too, or pitchers won't allow him to draw that many walks.

Lagares' glove is still a big asset, and if he improves any facet of his hitting he deserves to play every day. But we'll see. Everyone's an optimist this time of year (not that there's anything wrong with that).

[Vic Sage]

smg58 wrote: I would argue that Nimmo needs to hit for more pop too, or pitchers won't allow him to draw that many walks. Lagares' glove is still a big asset, and if he improves any facet of his hitting he deserves to play every day. But we'll see. Everyone's an optimist this time of year (not that there's anything wrong with that).

1) You could certainly argue that about Nimmo, but you'd be totally wrong. There are many players in baseball that have produced good OB% without a lot of power. And besides, Nimmo has exhibited power in the minors, and has shown more power than Lagares in the majors, too.
2) If you're prognosticating about what pitchers will or won't do with Nimmo in the future, see (1) above.
3) Yes, a player's defense is a big asset... in an era of run scarcity, where any single run has greater impact (because there are fewer of them scored) and where the marginal number of runs saved that results from superior glove work (over average fielding) by 1 of the 9 defenders on the field is more likely to have an effect on a win-vs-loss. But in an era of run inflation, like we're in NOW, where everybody and their sister hits 20 hr/yr, caring an 82 OPS+ in CF because he catches the ball good is just foolish, IMO. Even if Lagares can get that OPS+ up to 95, that would be a huge improvement and still below average. And Nimmo, still young and developing, is more likely to improve on his 104 OPS+ than Lagares is at age 28, going on 29.
4) Lagares will deserve to play every day if he ever becomes a solid hitter (not just if he improves "any facet") --- and only if gets traded, because he won't be playing over Cespedes, Conforto and Bruce, unless there is an injury.
5) Anyone is entitled to optimism, but I like to base mine on some observable reality rather than just magical thinking.

it's a fair question to wonder how much more a guy's defense has to contribute to offset an inferior bat. But that's an analysis that's era- and lineup-dependent. In this era, in this lineup, i'd rather have a Nimmo's ACTUALLY superior offense and average defense than Lagare's POTENTIALLY improved but still inferior (or even average) offense and superior defense.

[nymr83]

Vic, I agree with your arguments overall but not the use of OPS+ as evidence in #3. Ops+ is standardized so that 82 in an era of deadball is the same as 82 in an era of live ball. What changes is the relative value of defense.

If you trust the metrics, Lagares isn't the great defender he ince was.

I'd take Nimmo most of the time too. Maybe if the Mets have a pitcher who is particularly fly ball prone you pick that day to start Lagares

[Edgy MD]

He may never do it again, but a healthy Juan Lagares has demonstrated that he can provide 3.5 wins with defense alone. That ain't nothing.

That said, Lagares vs. Nimmo is a false conflict. The answer, I think we all agree, is Both/And.

[nymr83]

Well they are definitely competing with each other for playing time if/when everyone is healthy.

What I'm saying (and I think Vic too) is that Nimmo is going to win that competition if that competition is judged the way we think it should be.

Lagares certainly belongs on the roster, could be the best 5th OF in the league!