2018 Projections

[Centerfield]

I don't think we discussed this anywhere (sorry if I missed this).

BP's projections for 2018:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

They have us projected at 81-81 and missing the playoffs. 8 games behind Washington, 3 back of the second Wild Card.

BP predicts four juggernauts (NYY, CLE, HOU, LAD). Washington and the Cubs are your other 2 division winners.

Obviously this will change as free agents come off the board, and projections are obviously heavily flawed, but it's interesting to see what others realistically think of our chances.

[Ceetar]

extremely pessimistic about injuries is the thing.

[Benjamin Grimm]

My current thought for the Mets is 83 wins.

[Vic Sage]

Ceetar wrote: extremely[crossout]pessimistic[/crossout] realistic about injuries is the thing.

fixed it for you.

[Centerfield]

Here's the link to the Mets individual stats. Not really high on anyone at all.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?tm=NYN

[Ceetar]

Vic Sage wrote: Ceetar wrote: extremely[crossout]pessimistic[/crossout] realistic about injuries is the thing. fixed it for you.

no.

Flexen gets 10 starts, Corey Oswalt gets 8, and Montero gets 8. That's realistic? it's not. Hell, it's projecting deGrom to miss ~3 games and Thor to miss 6-7.

[Edgy MD]

While a lot of this is educated guesswork, that doesn't seem to be unreasonable.

Betting's not my business, but I'd guess it to be a smart play to bet on the healthiest starter out there to miss three starts.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: While a lot of this is educated guesswork, that doesn't seem to be unreasonable. Betting's not my business, but I'd guess it to be a smart play to bet on the healthiest starter out there to miss three starts.

In fact, if I could sign up for 3 missed starts by deGrom and 6 by Noah, I'd do it right now.

[Ceetar]

It's also projecting only ~3-4 missed starts for the top 4 in the Nationals rotation, which seems extremely optimistic.

And it's predicting Trea Turner will be at least 25% better than he's ever been, Murphy returns on time and without a scratch and Adam Eaton misses almost no time.

ahh, projections.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, more dramatic to me is the bullishness of Conforto only getting 334 PA and Nimmo getting 111.

Unlike the real world, these things tend to average out remarkable events, and so gravitate toward the mean, so I guess I'm unsurprised to see the Mets sitting on the mean.

[nymr83]

Edgy MD wrote: While a lot of this is educated guesswork, that doesn't seem to be unreasonable. Betting's not my business, but I'd guess it to be a smart play to bet on the healthiest starter out there to miss three starts.

Yeah, every pitcher is subject to a missed start here and there with a blister or even a rainout after he throws an inch. On top of that, there is the chance of serious injury that causes them to miss the year. If that injury happens 1 in 10 times, a projection accounts for it by saying they will miss 10% of starts

[Centerfield]

Question about these formulas. Let's say the Mets went nutty and signed Arrieta and Darvish this weekend. Obviously their projection improves. If that happens, do they take wins away from, say, Washington?

Basically, I'm asking if a team's projection can change while standing still, or is each team's projection independent of another team?

[nymr83]

I think the real issue with the Mets projections is the playing time relative to performance and a lack of understanding of the organizational dynamics, particularly at 1B

-Gonzalez isnt going to get 45% of 1B time (with Smith at 25%) if his offense is roughly equivalent to Smith's. Gonzalez will be off the team in favor of a younger, faster, and/or more position-flexible player if he isn't hitting well, or at least outperforming Smith.
-Flores at only 10% of 1B time? if everyone performs on a per AB basis the way pecota suggest, Flores will likely start 25% of the time or "against every lefty"

[Edgy MD]

Centerfield wrote: Question about these formulas. Let's say the Mets went nutty and signed Arrieta and Darvish this weekend. Obviously their projection improves. If that happens, do they take wins away from, say, Washington? Basically, I'm asking if a team's projection can change while standing still, or is each team's projection independent of another team?

Yeah, it looks like it's a zero-sum game. Every win for one guy or one team is a loss somewhere else, though they probably don't add up exactly due to rounding.

[Centerfield]

Got it.

So you would guess that as the big names come off the board, unless those big names improbably sign with the Mets, that projection might dip below .500.

Fangraphs also pegs us at 81 wins. They expect Boston to top the MFY's.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

[Edgy MD]

Centerfield wrote: So you would guess that as the big names come off the board, unless those big names improbably sign with the Mets, that projection might dip below .500.

Probably not, unless a disproportionate chunk of them end up in division.

[Frayed Knot]

I remember one year reading a Sports Illustrated NFL preview issue, and as I'm going through each team's projected records it struck me that there seemed to be too many optimistic projections.
And, sure enough, when I added up the individuals numbers it turned out they indeed had the league as a whole north of .500, an outcome which is quite impossible (unless it's the Lake Wobegon League where all teams are above average).

I wrote them to point out what I found and their explanation was that while one guy did the AFC projections, a different writer handled the NFC and, in each case, they gave the majority of the inter-conference games to their own side.
What the reply didn't say was whether they simply didn't realize this was the case or whether they did know it and decided to go ahead anyway on the basis that fans tend to get pissed off at predictions of off years for their teams so better to give as many as possible a Gold Star (plus orange slices) rather than risk cancelations and nasty letters.

[ashie62]

Preseason projections are useless.

They just tend to bump players up or down a small notch.

When projections can pick breakout or flop seasons I would be interested.

More Cowbell.