Amed Rosario in 2018

[Centerfield]

Is not going to be very good according to this article:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-bad-was-amed-rosarios-debut-exactly/

I don't pretend to know all of the new fancy metrics, but the gist of the article is that even with that small sample size, the projections on Rosario are pretty muted. Or at least, not suggestive of a superstar.

That’s still a good player, even as bad as Rosario’s debut was. But the range of outcomes has certainly dwindled from where it was when he was an untouchable prospect with the world as his oyster. After all, that debut did happen.

I don't know how anyone can draw any conclusions after such a small sample size. Can exit velocity and launch angle really be determined in 50 balls? I'd think one slump could ruin such a tiny group.

Anyone know Eno Sarris? Brilliant? Full of shit?

[Edgy MD]

It seems to me, even though you can do the most sophisticated analysis on his major league performance, you're doing yourself a dis-service not using the minor league data, even though tracking technology is absent.

But they get to the nut in the first paragraph. Rosario did badly for two reasons that had very little to do with launch angle and exit velocity. Three walks and 49 strikeouts. That's bad no matter what.

That said, he has a history of being noticeably overmatched upon his introduction to a level, and then making adjustments, so we'll see.

[G-Fafif]

Centerfield wrote: Anyone know Eno Sarris? Brilliant? Full of shit?

Would have to examine his first 50 paragraphs and then decide what the trajectory of his career will be.

Actually, he wrote a really good piece about about trying to talk advanced stats to ballplayers.

[Ceetar]

i trust Eno but I'm biased.

But the logic is generally sound, he DID debut, those stats DO count, and it tempers expectations. he didn't walk. things like exit velocity are pretty stable pretty fast.

But he could certainly still make an adjustment under a new hitting coach, but no matter what you thought he'd be, you gotta temper it somewhat based on him not doing something.

[smg58]

He was 21 and moving up from a league where hitting comes far too easily. I expected him to struggle out of the box, and he did. I also expect him to improve substantially. Maybe not into an All-Star next year, but an OPS in the low to mid 700s with a plus plus glove sounds reasonable.

[Frayed Knot]

So just reading the comments here on the article and not the article itself, I gather it's this guy deciding to re-think Rosario entirely based on 170 PAs?

Yeah, I'll pass.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: So just reading the comments here on the article and not the article itself, I gather it's this guy deciding to re-think Rosario entirely based on 170 PAs? Yeah, I'll pass.

not at all.

It digs into those 170 PAs to see what, if anything, we can learn. Mostly determined that the data is still incomplete but has some concerns, and any additional concerns means an expected tempered range of expectations.

[ashie62]

I am of the opinion he was rushed. He didn't look MLB "physically mature" yet. Not Amed's fault many people were looking for Correa, Lindorish elite production immediately.

Give him time

550 PA 15 HR 48 RBI .259 BA 150 K'S

or....

he is traded by opening day.

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: So just reading the comments here on the article and not the article itself, I gather it's this guy deciding to re-think Rosario entirely based on 170 PAs? Yeah, I'll pass. not at all. It digs into those 170 PAs to see what, if anything, we can learn. Mostly determined that the data is still incomplete but has some concerns, and any additional concerns means an expected tempered range of expectations.

You say "not at all" and then go on to say that's exactly what's being done.
If that's what he want to do then go for it, but ANYTHING based on the first 170 PAs of a guy's career is of limited value so I'm going to take a pass on caring about it and I'd say that if his projection
went the other way.

[Ceetar]

limited, but not no, value. so yeah.

The majority of the expectation of Rosario is still based of scouting/minors but those 170 PA happened, and count. How much do they count? that's the article.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: limited, but not no, value. so yeah.

Joelmon?

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Ceetar wrote: limited, but not no, value. so yeah. Joelmon?

what?

[nymr83]

Ceetar wrote: limited, but not no, value. so yeah. The majority of the expectation of Rosario is still based of scouting/minors but those 170 PA happened, and count. How much do they count? that's the article.

This is exactly what I was about to write.

Sure Rosario could still be great, but lets not ignore the possibility he could be Lastings Milledge. A possibility that has gone up at least a little bit in probability based on these 170 AB

[Centerfield]

I guess the part that confused me was his claim that exit velocity settles in after 50 balls in play.

How can that be? I mean, even if that were true, as the 21 year old grows and matures, you figure that increases as well no? Don't stronger people hit the ball harder, making it jump off the bat faster?

I tell you, when I read a site like Fangraphs and they are talking about launch angle and exit velocity, I can't help but feel 100 years old.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: I guess the part that confused me was his claim that exit velocity settles in after 50 balls in play.

well, that's statistics. Calculating exit velocity as you go along during the season, right around 50 balls in play is where the values pretty much exactly resemble the overall season averages.

But that's only for in-season values. We don't know how 2017 velocities predict 2018 ones, especially inregards to aging. So yes, a 21 year old is expected to age and mature. initial research seems to suggest that the floor/average values tend to increase at first, but the peak only comes down.

Of course there's a somewhat limited sample of pre-fully developed players that have enough data to really figure this out for sure.

I'd guess the idea is that if you're a major league player, you'll occasionally catch up to the flat fastball and hit it as hard as you can, at some point, during a season. You're not going to square it up better with more practice, you pretty much did it perfectly, so your aging dying body will only decrease, unless perhaps Rosario is still on the upswing portion of growth and aging and then maybe he can tweak some more out of it?

man, I'd love to have some Bonds exit velocities.

[Fman99]

How did Justin Turner do in his first 170 PA? This guy is a tithead.

[Lefty Specialist]

I'd give Rosario a little more time before panicking, fer criminy.

[Edgy MD]

Fman99 wrote: This guy is a tithead.

Is that, like, a thing?

[nymr83]

Lefty Specialist wrote: I'd give Rosario a little more time before panicking, fer criminy.

I don't think the article is "panicking" at all.

[Fman99]

Edgy MD wrote: Fman99 wrote: This guy is a tithead. Is that, like, a thing?

Sure! I mean, big, round head, some sort of protuberance on top. Why not.

[Ceetar]

Fman99 wrote: How did Justin Turner do in his first 170 PA? This guy is a tithead.

we don't have statcast data from that ancient time.

But his hard hit % was low, so probably not that well. Of course, that was also pre-juiced ball era.