Cowtipper

Well, we're up to 20% in now, so we can do another update. Carlos Beltran: 77-78% Andruw Jones: 71-72% Chase Utley: 51-52% Felix Hernandez: 43-44% Alex Rodriguez: 42-43% Andy Pettitte: 39-40% Manny Ramirez: 37-38% Bobby Abreu: 28-29% Cole Hamels: 26-27% Jimmy Rollins: 22-23% Dustin Pedroia: 21-22% Omar Vizquel: 18-19% Mark Buehrle: 17-18% Francisco Rodriguez: 14-15% David Wright: 12-13% Torii Hunter: 5-6% Ryan Braun: 4-5% Edwin Encarnacion: 1-2% Hunter Pence: 1-2% Shin-Soo Choo: 0-1% Gio Gonzalez: 0-1% Alex Gordon: 0-1% Matt Kemp: 0-1% Howie Kendrick: 0-1% Nick Markakis: 0-1% Daniel Murphy: 0-1% Rick Porcello: 0-1% My optimism is slipping for Jones. I'm now 47/53 yes/no for him now. Everything else holds.

The rough estimate that guys finish ~5% less than the 'reported' totals is a little off. It is really, really player dependent. My proprietary and one-of-a-kind projection method is usually pretty close, usually falling within a couple/a handful of percentage points of the real number. It seems the old-timey traditional guys publicly report theirs less, so guys like Vizquel, Torii Hunter and Francisco Rodriguez (aka those whose cases rely on more than WAR and sabermetrics) usually do better than reported totals, while guys who are allegedly tainted in some way (Beltran) and those whose cases are largely sabermetric dependent (Utley) do much worse than reported totals. There is also a great financial incentive for the Hall to 'encourage' bigger ballots and getting people in, because if no one is voted in, the big money summer festivities won't get as many visitors and dollars. Which is why, for example, I think the VC has been more liberal in electing folks in recent years. The success of Hamels and Hernandez should really benefit Jon Lester next year, who I actually DO think should be in the Hall, in large part due to his postseason success. It's still a weak ballot next year, as Buster Posey is the only really convincing name, and I don't think it's a guarantee he'll get in first ballot, though with Mauer getting in first ballot, the precedent has been set for Posey.

Jae-gyun Hwang has retired. Andrew Heaney has retired.

Carlos Beltran: 75-76% Andruw Jones: 73-74% Chase Utley: 51-52% Alex Rodriguez: 42-43% Felix Hernandez: 41-42% Andy Pettitte: 39-40% Manny Ramirez: 37-38% Bobby Abreu: 29-30% Cole Hamels: 25-26% Dustin Pedroia: 21-22% Jimmy Rollins: 20-21% Omar Vizquel: 19-20% Mark Buehrle: 15-16% Francisco Rodriguez: 14-15% David Wright: 13-14% Ryan Braun: 4-5% Torii Hunter: 3-4% Edwin Encarnacion: 1-2% Hunter Pence: 1-2% Shin-Soo Choo: 0-1% Gio Gonzalez: 0-1% Alex Gordon: 0-1% Matt Kemp: 0-1% Howie Kendrick: 0-1% Nick Markakis: 0-1% Daniel Murphy: 0-1% Rick Porcello: 0-1% Same thing as before, I still think Beltran is a lock and Jones is 50/50. It's becoming more and more plausible that this is the end of the line for Torii Hunter, who barely held on with 5.1% of the vote last time and peaked at 9.5%. My initial prediction for Braun seems to be falling into place; I don't think he'll get 5% of the vote. I've been ticking up the total for Hamels throughout this and he might actually stay at ~30%; I'd like to think the HOF/writers aren't THAT desperate to get pitchers from this era in, yet. Ramirez looks like he'll gain a little, but I don't see him getting to 40%.

He'd be a good signing. Not a superstar, but a solid piece. Valdez-Peterson-Holmes kind of gives me a 2024 feel...three good-very good pitchers anchoring the rotation a la Manaea, Severino and Quintana. Valdez, however, is a bit better than those three.

Seems like a very typical slow news day offseason nothingburger to gripe about.

It's funny, we thought 2025 was going to be the year the Mets were going to put it together and finally be a dominant team, and 2024 was going to be a rebuilding year. But 2024 was the year that we went to the NLCS and 2025 was the year they let us all down. So when it comes to the Mets, you just never know.

I think the performative misery exists because these are supposed to be fringe players, but for some reason the Mets love to plug them into major roles and we all suffer as a result. Remember when it was something like Scott Rice, Carlos Torres and Greg Burke taking up a lot of bullpen space? These guys should be 1-2 game fill-ins, not cogs. But they always become cogs.

The Mets signed 28-year-old minor league pitcher who has never played above Double-A Tyler Burch for some reason.

The Mets signed David Stearns' favorite kind of reliever, a bad one, inking 4-year vet Mike Baumann to a deal; whether it's a big league deal or a minor league one is unknown. He didn't pitch in the majors in 2025 and owns a career 4.95 ERA, 83 ERA+ and 1.452 WHIP, which is actually a little low by Stearns' standards. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/mets-to-sign-mike-baumann.html

With more than 10% reported now, we begin to get a clearer picture of where things might end up: Carlos Beltran: 76-77% Andruw Jones: 75-76% Chase Utley: 50-51% Felix Hernandez: 45-46% Alex Rodriguez: 41-42% Andy Pettitte: 39-40% Manny Ramirez: 34-35% Bobby Abreu: 30-31% Cole Hamels: 22-23% Jimmy Rollins: 22-23% Dustin Pedroia: 20-21% Omar Vizquel: 20-21% Mark Buehrle: 18-19% Francisco Rodriguez: 14-15% David Wright: 10-11% Ryan Braun: 7-8% Torii Hunter: 5-6% Edwin Encarnacion: 1-2% Hunter Pence: 1-2% Shin-Soo Choo: 0-1% Gio Gonzalez: 0-1% Alex Gordon: 0-1% Matt Kemp: 0-1% Howie Kendrick: 0-1% Nick Markakis: 0-1% Daniel Murphy: 0-1% Rick Porcello: 0-1% I'm still pretty confident Beltran is going to make it and I'll still say Jones is 50/50. I could see Beltran potentially pulling a Billy Wagner and getting within 5-6 votes, but not earning election. Not only is the crop of newcomers weak, but the crop of holdovers is weak, too. None of the current ones will make a push for election next year, but Utley could theoretically be elected the year after that. Pettitte will likely start seeing pretty massive gains as he is on year 8, but the 'roids and his status as a less-illustrious potential Hall of Famer really hinder his chances for eventual election.

It's Mark Canha again.

Jose Martinez has retired.

Oh thank goodness. Now typical of late-bloomers who came up without much fanfare, a la Justin Turner and Daniel Murphy, he's going to become an All-Star masher for many years to come, instead of the inconsistent player he was with New York. I remember he was often sour and seemed like he had a bad attitude. I remember his awesome rookie year and thinking we probably weren't going to get that out of him year after year, so he did surprise me. But I took him as the sort of player that the rug could get pulled out from under us at any moment, and in 2023, it happened. I remember I was at a Mets game and some girls were holding up a squirrel stuffed animal trying to get his attention. Always felt bad for that nickname; it might've been in good fun, but it was still kind of insulting. I remember him as being one of my primary sources of Mets frustration and constantly wanting him gone. Still, a 117 OPS+, two ASGs, a Silver Slugger and a batting title, from that guy, are nothing to sneeze at.

Masanori Murakami last played in 1965 and is now 81 years old. I don't think he's a good fit.

Jeff McNeil: The Mets are considering using McNeil (shoulder) as the strong side of a platoon at first base next season, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports. Healey says the club could consider signing Paul Goldschmidt as the short side of that platoon. It wouldn't make for a very exciting replacement for Pete Alonso, who agreed to a long-term contract with the Orioles on Wednesday, and the likelier scenario is still that McNeil is traded this winter. McNeil underwent thoracic outlet surgery after the season but is expected to be ready for spring training. Injury Shoulder. Est. Return 2/1/2026. AJ Minter: Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said Monday that Minter (lat) is questionable for Opening Day, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. Minter underwent season-ending left lat surgery in early May and it's unclear where exactly he is in the rehab process. Stearns noted that if Minter is not ready for Opening Day, his absence is expected to be brief. The southpaw exercised his $11 million player option for 2026 and is poised to fill a key setup role for the Mets, if healthy. Injury Lat. Est. Return 4/1/2026. Christian Scott: Probable for start of season

Brandon Waddell was outrighted to Syracuse. Good to still have him around. I hope they use him more in 2026.

David Dahl retired. Jake Lamb, a forgotten 30-homer guy from way back in 2017, retired.

Greg Thayer died. https://www.stcloudlive.com/sports/former-twins-pitcher-tech-scsu-hall-of-fame-athlete-greg-thayer-dies-at-76 Who was Greg Thayer? Gregory Allen Thayer (October 23, 1949 – December 12, 2025) was an American professional baseball pitcher who briefly played in Major League Baseball for the Minnesota Twins in 1978. A right-handed pitcher, Thayer made his MLB debut on April 7, 1978, and appeared in his final game on June 26, 1978. During his short major-league career, he posted a 1–1 win–loss record, a 3.80 ERA, and recorded 30 strikeouts. Born in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Thayer was closely associated with St. Cloud, Minnesota. He attended St. Cloud Tech High School and St. Cloud State College, where he was notable enough to be inducted into athletic halls of fame. In addition to his MLB stint, Thayer spent many years in the minor leagues, playing for teams such as the Toledo Mud Hens, Syracuse Chiefs, Tacoma Twins, and others. Thayer died on December 12, 2025, at age 76, in St. Cloud, Minnesota. Mike Campbell died. https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/former-mariners-pitcher-seattle-native-mike-campbell-dies-at-61/ Who was Mike Campbell? Michael Thomas Campbell (February 17, 1964 – December 15, 2025) was an American professional baseball pitcher who played in Major League Baseball between 1987 and 1996. A right-handed pitcher from Seattle, Washington, Campbell appeared with four MLB teams: the Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, and Chicago Cubs. Over his major-league career, he compiled a 12–19 record, a 5.86 ERA, and 135 strikeouts. Campbell was a standout amateur and minor leaguer. After attending West Seattle and Newport High Schools, he starred at the University of Hawaiʻi, earning MVP honors as the team’s top pitcher in 1984 and 1985. He was selected seventh overall by the Mariners in the 1985 MLB Draft. In 1987, he was named Pacific Coast League MVP with the Calgary Cannons, leading the league in wins and earning his MLB debut that same season. Despite early promise, Campbell’s major-league career was hindered by chronic shoulder injuries. His best MLB outing came in 1988, when he threw a complete-game shutout against Cleveland. He was later involved in the notable trade that sent Mark Langston to Montreal and brought Randy Johnson to Seattle, though Campbell never pitched for the Expos. He later played for Texas, San Diego, and Chicago, with his final MLB season coming in 1996. After leaving MLB, Campbell pitched briefly in Japan and independent leagues before retiring in 1999. Following his playing career, he co-ran a concession business at ballparks and events. Campbell died of a heart attack on December 15, 2025, at the age of 61. Albert Hall died. https://www.al.com/sports/2025/12/former-alabama-prep-star-atlanta-braves-outfielder-dead-at-age-67.html Who was Albert Hall? Albert Hall (March 7, 1958 – December 16, 2025) was an American professional baseball outfielder best known for his speed and his long tenure with the Atlanta Braves. He played in Major League Baseball from 1981 to 1989, appearing in 375 National League games—355 of them with Atlanta—before finishing his career with the Pittsburgh Pirates. A switch hitter who threw right-handed, Hall was drafted by the Braves in the sixth round of the 1977 MLB Draft out of Jones Valley High School in Birmingham, Alabama. He quickly gained a reputation in the minor leagues as an elite base stealer, swiping hundreds of bases and regularly posting stolen-base totals of 60 or more at multiple levels. Overall, he stole 455 bases in the minors and 67 in the majors. Hall’s best major-league season came in 1987, when he set career highs across the board, including a .284 batting average, 33 stolen bases, and 92 games played. That season, on September 23, 1987, he made history by becoming the first Atlanta Brave to hit for the cycle, the franchise’s first such feat since 1910. Primarily used as a reserve outfielder and pinch-runner, Hall was valued more for speed and defense than power, finishing his MLB career with five home runs and 53 RBIs. He died on December 16, 2025, at the age of 67.

His career trajectory seems Brooks Raley-esque, in that he started off terribly then only got good in his 30s, so this might have promise.

Obviously I remember his delivery. That's about the only specific memory. Every once-in-a-while, the Mets get a short-term reliever that just wows, then they're gone. The first two that come to mind are Steve Reed and Mark Guthrie. Juan Padilla is an obscure one. We can add Rogers to the list.

Waddell is probably a goner. Sucks because he was a good one.

Mets sign Cristian Pache, who didn't play in the majors in 2025, but who is a five-year big league vet with a career .181 average and 46 OPS+. https://nypost.com/2025/12/15/sports/mets-sign-cristian-pache-to-compete-for-outfield-spot/

Pivetta is an excellent candidate to let us down and post a 5.00 ERA in a Mets uniform. 56-71 with a 4.76 ERA before last year. No thanks.

40-50 homer power with the potential for 200 strikeouts and generally lower to middling averages usually == quick collapses a la Chris Carter, Chris Davis and Joey Gallo when they begin. I think the Mets lucked out on this one.